EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[bramling]

True. But that was based on the (arguably*) false premise that free movement of people does more harm than good.

*I believe that it does more good than harm but others are entitled to disagree.

It doesn't have to be free movement. I was merely using that as an example where it seems public opinion, and apparently current elected British government policy, is that the current form of EU policy is not what we want, yet Britain has no realistic way of making meaningful change to the EU's stance. In other words we are entirely at their mercy on this and other issues.

 

[EM2]

If you ascribe to the notion that free movement of people is harmful to the UK, then it follows that the inability to apply restrictions while in the EU is a reason to leave.

That's a big if.

 

[bramling]

Again, we run into the same problems that have been described above with our own method of government which, being pragmatic, is not going to change any time soon. The arguments being made above are also used to justify Scottish independence, that Parliament in London is holding the Scots back and meddling in Scottish affairs, yet this wasn't enough to split up the UK when push came to shove.

I don't get why people enjoy being divisive, when the whole point of these governmental systems is to provide a level of management for making laws which are mutually beneficial, and working out compromises where needed. Democracy can't work if people don't engage with it; how many people in the UK have voted for an MEP, for example?

Going off on a tangent, but I cannot help but find the SNP position absolutely ridiculous, namely that being part of one union is terrible and wrong, yet being part of another is wonderful and indispensable. The reality of course is that the SNP position is largely ideological in my opinion.

I don't see Brexit as being such an ideologically driven issue. Sure it may be for some, but I don't believe that was the driving force behind the referendum result. Likewise apart from a minority of die-hard nationalists, I think the Scottish referendum was largely driven by pragmatic factors. So for the most part both referendums results were the outcome of people weighing up pros and cons like a set of scales, one referendum tipped one way whilst the other tipped the other way. I think it really is as simple as that, I don't see what divisiveness has to do with it.

 

[bramling]

That's a big if.

Maybe,but for a start it seems public opinion has tipped towards wanting a change from the status quo, and in any case there are other real or potential cases where we have no power to make a change we might wish to make. Free movement is a good strong example because it is an issue which has high salience in Britain at the moment.

 

[furnessvale]

The news that the Lords has added an amendment to the Brexit Bill that aims to guarantee the rights of EU nationals living in the UK to remain in the UK (by 358 to 256) seems to have gone unreported on here.



Wailing and gnashing of teeth from the Government incoming, and no doubt calls from the Daily Mail to abolish the House of Lords.

I should imagine most of the wailing and gnashing of teeth will be from the 1m+ UK citizens currently resident in the EU who, if this amendment stands, will be left totally unprotected with the EU under no pressure to reciprocate the deal.

Well done Lords!

 

[bramling]

I should imagine most of the wailing and gnashing of teeth will be from the 1m+ UK citizens currently resident in the EU who, if this amendment stands, will be left totally unprotected with the EU under no pressure to reciprocate the deal.

Well done Lords!

If the EU is so wonderful, why have they not de-weaponised this issue by making a guarantee about these 1m British? If Britain is at fault then so is EU- unless I have missed something of course?

 

[furnessvale]

If the EU is so wonderful, why have they not de-weaponised this issue by making a guarantee about these 1m British? If Britain is at fault then so is EU- unless I have missed something of course?

Exactly! I'm with you on this!

 

[Domh245]

Of course, the EU can't actually force it's constituent members any particular way in terms of immigration policy, but they have forbidden talks between the UK and the other members on these kinds of matters before Article 50 has been triggered. Also, FWIW, I'd read somewhere that a lot of the lobbying on this matter had come from UK citizens currently living in the EU, but I can't find that now, nor can I recall if that was sourced, but I do seem to remember something to that effect being said on "Today in Parliament" when the bill was entering the HoL.

Also, it would seem that toothless as he is in this matter, the EU's chief negotiator for Brexit seems fairly happy with the result.

 

[furnessvale]

Of course, the EU can't actually force it's constituent members any particular way in terms of immigration policy, but they have forbidden talks between the UK and the other members on these kinds of matters before Article 50 has been triggered. Also, FWIW, I'd read somewhere that a lot of the lobbying on this matter had come from UK citizens currently living in the EU, but I can't find that now, nor can I recall if that was sourced, but I do seem to remember something to that effect being said on "Today in Parliament" when the bill was entering the HoL.

Also, it would seem that toothless as he is in this matter, the EU's chief negotiator for Brexit seems fairly happy with the result.

You bet your life he is happy! It certainly takes the pressure off him and puts it all onto the UK negotiators to try and get a deal for our citizens!

 

[DynamicSpirit]

If the EU is so wonderful, why have they not de-weaponised this issue by making a guarantee about these 1m British? If Britain is at fault then so is EU- unless I have missed something of course?

Probably because they are taking the line that no negotiations can start until the UK triggers Article 50. However, it doesn't seem remotely plausible to me that the EU would seek to deny rights to remain to UK citizens living in EU countries if the UK guarantees rights upfront to EU citizens in the UK.

Firstly, unlike - it seems - the UK Government, the EU tends to be coming from a position of wanting to respect the rights of citizens living in other countries - that is after all, one of the EU's basic principles.

And secondly, can you imagine what kind of awful headlines the EU would face right across Europe if the UK had already guaranteed the rights of EU citizens in the UK but the EU subsequently refused to do likewise? I think you'll find the majority of mainstream/Governing parties in Europe would find that totally unethical and unacceptable. It's basically not going to happen. So I really don't see that the vote in the Lords today is going to have any adverse impact on UK citizens in Europe.

I'd suggest a rather greater threat to UK citizens living in Europe would be if the UK Government is seen to prevaricate on the rights of EU citizens in the UK: That immediately makes the UK Government look bad in negotiations, and risks starting that part of the negotiations in a hostile atmosphere - which could give any 'hawks' in the EU the perfect pretext to do likewise for UK citizens in Europe. It's not hard to see that in that situation, if negotiations get bad tempered etc., rights could end up being restricted on both sides due to failures in negotiations. There is a time and place for talking tough in negotiations, but you also need to start negotiations in good faith. And starting out negotiations looking like you don't care about the other side's citizens isn't exactly the way to build trust.

So I would suggest that what Theresa May has been doing up to now - refusing to guarantee residence rights to EU citizens is exactly the worst thing to do from the point of view of protecting rights of UK citizens abroad. (Although I suspect that either way, the risk is still small).

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Wailing and gnashing of teeth from the Government incoming, and no doubt calls from the Daily Mail to abolish the House of Lords.

Perhaps the Daily Mail and the Morning Star would agree with each other for the very first time over a matter such as this.

 

[meridian2]

Perhaps the Daily Mail and the Morning Star would agree with each other for the very first time over a matter such as this.

I've always been a supporter of the second chamber, but having watched the debate for the first time in donkey's years, one third of the House seemed to be listening, one third were asleep, and the rest may well have been dead. If they were active participants in the democratic process, someone will have to point how.

A report claimed it wasn't unheard of for a Lord to tell the taxi driver to keep his engine running while he dropped his vote. There has to be a better way than a debate in sleepy hollow.

 

[furnessvale]

Probably because they are taking the line that no negotiations can start until the UK triggers Article 50. However, it doesn't seem remotely plausible to me that the EU would seek to deny rights to remain to UK citizens living in EU countries if the UK guarantees rights upfront to EU citizens in the UK.

Firstly, unlike - it seems - the UK Government, the EU tends to be coming from a position of wanting to respect the rights of citizens living in other countries - that is after all, one of the EU's basic principles.

And secondly, can you imagine what kind of awful headlines the EU would face right across Europe if the UK had already guaranteed the rights of EU citizens in the UK but the EU subsequently refused to do likewise? I think you'll find the majority of mainstream/Governing parties in Europe would find that totally unethical and unacceptable. It's basically not going to happen. So I really don't see that the vote in the Lords today is going to have any adverse impact on UK citizens in Europe.

I'd suggest a rather greater threat to UK citizens living in Europe would be if the UK Government is seen to prevaricate on the rights of EU citizens in the UK: That immediately makes the UK Government look bad in negotiations, and risks starting that part of the negotiations in a hostile atmosphere - which could give any 'hawks' in the EU the perfect pretext to do likewise for UK citizens in Europe. It's not hard to see that in that situation, if negotiations get bad tempered etc., rights could end up being restricted on both sides due to failures in negotiations. There is a time and place for talking tough in negotiations, but you also need to start negotiations in good faith. And starting out negotiations looking like you don't care about the other side's citizens isn't exactly the way to build trust.

So I would suggest that what Theresa May has been doing up to now - refusing to guarantee residence rights to EU citizens is exactly the worst thing to do from the point of view of protecting rights of UK citizens abroad. (Although I suspect that either way, the risk is still small).

How diametrically opposed to the truth is this post?

Reciprocal rights of citizens? Was it the UK or the EU that proposed months ago an early resolution to this issue, only to be rebuffed?

Good faith in negotiations? Is it the UK or the EU and its constituent countries constantly talking about punishing the other party when negotiations begin?

EU facing nasty headlines? How quaint to think the megalomaniacs in charge of the EU would be bothered by that!

Sadly, the truth is that a unilateral move on this issue will remove any urgency for the EU to reciprocate and furthermore, will be taken as a sign of weakness in the forthcoming negotiations.

But then again, that is exactly what remainers want, in the last desperate hope that a bad deal will force the UK to remain at any price.

 

[Senex]

There has to be a better way than a debate in sleepy hollow.

But the unrepresentative Commons are only too happy to keep the present fcarcical set-up of the unrepresentative Lords because that represents no challenge to the elective dictatorshop of Westminster.

 

[najaB]

If they were active participants in the democratic process, someone will have to point how.

Inertia. They act as a brake on the ambition of those with a populist agenda.

If Tony Blair had needed the Lords to approve the war in Iraq, hundreds of thousands of people wouldn't have died for nothing.

 

[meridian2]

Inertia. They act as a brake on the ambition of those with a populist agenda.

If Tony Blair had needed the Lords to approve the war in Iraq, hundreds of thousands of people wouldn't have died for nothing.

Inertia is an excellent description for unconsciousness. While it's essential the nation is buffered from the overweening ambitions and monumental egos of here today, gone tomorrow politicians, it would be nice to have something with a pulse to counter their megalomania.

 

[NSEFAN]

Sadly, the truth is that a unilateral move on this issue will remove any urgency for the EU to reciprocate and furthermore, will be taken as a sign of weakness in the forthcoming negotiations.

How is allowing EU citizens who are currently here to remain in the UK a sign of weakness? Given that Britain also has lots of its own citizens living throughout the EU, and we presumably would like it to stay that way, should we not be looking to go straight for that kind of agreement to avoid things from becoming more sour than they already are?

 

[EM2]

If freedom of movement causes such iniquity, why is the UK alone in wages falling while the economy grew?
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Between 2007 and 2015, the UK was the only big advanced economy in which wages contracted while the economy expanded. In most other countries, including France and Germany, both the economy and wages have grown.

Italy and Portugal are yet to reach their pre-crisis levels on both measures, while in Finland and Spain real wages grew in periods of economic contraction.

The UK sits on its own as a rich economy that experienced a strong economic performance while the real wages of its workers dropped.

Britain’s GDP went back to pre-crisis levels in the third quarter of 2013 and it is now nearly 10 per cent larger than in the second quarter of 2008. Yet in 2014 wages were almost 10 per cent lower than seven years before. During the same period, salaries in France and Germany grew 7 per cent.

 

[najaB]

If freedom of movement causes such iniquity, why is the UK alone in wages falling while the economy grew?

One theory is that immigrants are willing to work for lower wages, so it stifles pressure for wage increases. Hence free movement of labour is bad.

This, of course, ignores the fact that UK citizens are free to go work in countries that have higher wages.

 

[EM2]

One theory is that immigrants are willing to work for lower wages, so it stifles pressure for wage increases.

But why does that only happen in the UK?

 

[najaB]

But why does that only happen in the UK?

I dunno. All the Brits must be over there demanding high wages.

 

[furnessvale]

How is allowing EU citizens who are currently here to remain in the UK a sign of weakness? Given that Britain also has lots of its own citizens living throughout the EU, and we presumably would like it to stay that way, should we not be looking to go straight for that kind of agreement to avoid things from becoming more sour than they already are?

Fully agree when done bilaterally.

 

[najaB]

Fully agree when done bilaterally.

I'm sure it will be one of the first things to be discussed after Article 50 is invoked.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Fully agree when done bilaterally.

The way I see it, we should be the ones leading on this.
There has been a lot of talk about "Great" Britain and "British Values" and stuff, so come on why don't we show the EU some of that?

Of course, the reason we won't is May wants the ability to use people as bargaining chips. I agree that the EU are probably thinking the same, but in my eyes we shouldn't be doing that so lets set an example we can be proud of.

 

[Howardh]

But then again, that is exactly what remainers want, in the last desperate hope that a bad deal will force the UK to remain at any price.

Yes, yes, a thousand times yes.

In my opinion, if, on either side, one person is "forced" out of the country they live and work in, then that is one too many and Brexit should scrapped, binned, sent to meet it's maker, have obituaries posted in the Times, RIP.

Again, these are real lives, real people that are gonna have their lives turned upside down. They are not a crate of wine. And what for, apart from nothing?

 

[Dave1987]

This has nothing to do with Mrs May being worried about Brits abroad and all to do with the Tory extreme using EU citizens as a pawn to get a deal with the EU post Brexit and ex pats are stuck in the middle. It utterly utterly stinks how Mrs May is allowing people lives and livelihoods to be used in a game of cat and mouse with the EU. I know many moderate centre right Tory MPs are appalled with how May is allowing people to live in fear of their futures simply because they choose to reside in the UK and contribute to the UK economy. This is sickening and makes me ashamed to be British. I have family who live abroad and they are all applying for citizenship abroad and never plan on coming back to the UK if they can help it and I don't blame them. Tory extreme are petrified that the EU won't play ball and will destroy the UK economy. Well tough! I hope the EU don't give the UK a good deal.

 

[Howardh]

This has nothing to do with Mrs May being worried about Brits abroad and all to do with the Tory extreme using EU citizens as a pawn to get a deal with the EU post Brexit and ex pats are stuck in the middle. It utterly utterly stinks how Mrs May is allowing people lives and livelihoods to be used in a game of cat and mouse with the EU. I know many moderate centre right Tory MPs are appalled with how May is allowing people to live in fear of their futures simply because they choose to reside in the UK and contribute to the UK economy. This is sickening and makes me ashamed to be British. I have family who live abroad and they are all applying for citizenship abroad and never plan on coming back to the UK if they can help it and I don't blame them. Tory extreme are petrified that the EU won't play ball and will destroy the UK economy. Well tough! I hope the EU don't give the UK a good deal.

Stuck between a rock and a hard place. If the UK's economy is destroyed, we all suffer as the chances of the majority of us being able to move overseas to work or retire will be on the scale of zilch, so we all up to our necks in it (and no, dear Brexiter, we're NOT in this all together) but on the other hand that means there is more chance of a quick re-join...but on the EU's terms which could mean the Euro and Schengen (although I doubt that).

One thing's for sure, it's not in the EU's interest to negotiate anything with us. All I keep hearing is May rabbiting on about "the best deal for Britain". What the Dickens does that mean when it's at home? It's like "Brexit" itsel, so open-ended as to be meaningless.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Of course, the reason we won't is May wants the ability to use people as bargaining chips. I agree that the EU are probably thinking the same

The problem is there's the thick end of half a million British immigrants living in Spain alone, and a lot of them are retirees. I can understand why the Government are wary about making unilateral promises which undermine any negotiations about those people. My gut feeling is the Government don't want to expel people from Britain any more than we want the people back from Spain, but nobody can really come out with it.

The added complication is the way UKIP are going full-on fash about immigration, with Farage accusing Douglas Carswell, of all people, as being soft on immigration and preventing UKIP from saying what they really think. For all the people who think it is shameful how EU nationals are being treated as bargaining chips, there's other people who think (if we can be generous and call it that) that we should send the buggers back.

 

[najaB]

For all the people who think it is shameful how EU nationals are being treated as bargaining chips, there's other people who think (if we can be generous and call it that) that we should send the buggers back.

But, of course, continue to be allowed to retire to Spain.

 

[Tetchytyke]

One thing's for sure, it's not in the EU's interest to negotiate anything with us

I think it is in the EU's interest to negotiate with us. But what the Brexiteers see as negotiation- that the EU continue to let us use the squash court and the sauna even though we've cancelled the gym subscription- really is living in cloud cuckoo land.