National Express Group to give up franchises??

[Bayum]

The following is in someone elses words, as I found it on another forum, and don't really get what its on about - apart from the fact that National Express may be giving up their four franchises.

It is being reported by TransportXtra that National Express is predicted to hand back all franchises city firm JP Morgan.
http://www.transportxtra.com/magazines/ ... /?id=14646

The 4 are:
National Express East Anglia
National Express East Coast
Stansted Express
c2c

Wow, this may be akin to the energy firms rising their bills, waiting for the first one to do it, then the others follow!

This is going to be a VERY rough year!

Oh dear =/

 

[Guinness]

I thought they were renegotiating with the Hoonster over Premiums etc.

If they do sell it will probably end up been c2c, no doubt to GoVia or something similar.

 

[glynn80]

The following is in someone elses words, as I found it on another forum, and don't really get what its on about - apart from the fact that National Express may be giving up their four franchises.




Oh dear =/

This is a prediction by JP Morgan based on the fact revenues will drop if the RPI goes into a minus figure and thus there would be a fall in protected rail fares.

 

[BOSCH]

The following is in someone elses words, as I found it on another forum, and don't really get what its on about - apart from the fact that National Express may be giving up their four franchises.




Oh dear =/

Oh dear indeed !!

 

[me123]

I hope this doesn't happen; I think they've been a good franchise thus far (although this is debatable by some and admittedly they have made unpopular decisions). But they're still one of the better franchises out there in my opinion.

Obviously long distance services like NXEC will suffer more in theory because fewer people will want to travel whilst commuter services are likely to flourish as more people leave their cars at home. I would think, however, that an increased number of domestic holidays would help NXEC in a way as more people would travel by train to their destination as opposed to flying. And of course, the energy bills come into the equation as mentioned in the article.

All I can say is; let us hope that this isn't true.

 

[O L Leigh]

Factually wrong and poorly cited.

Firstly Stansted Express is part of the NXEA franchise and not seperate from it. Secondly, just because JP Morgan are predicting something is likely to happen it doesn't mean that it will. In addition, what is the source for this story? Can we please see the full link?

However, if the factors that JP Morgan highlight as being likely to cause NX to rethink it's involvement in rail actually come about, expect every single TOC to start feeling the pinch too.

O L Leigh

 

[Bayum]

Some people on the site were saying the fact that because JP Morgan are a highly regarded company and this had been said, it was likely that National Express Group would in fact ditch one or two of their franchises.

And is it the forum I got it from O Leigh that you want or the article?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Nvm - I got it

http://www.transportxtra.com/magazines/transit/news/?id=14646

 

[tbtc]

Energy bills?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7843999.stm - "British Gas has said that more than seven million households will benefit after it cut its standard tariff gas prices by 10%"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7845777.stm - "Oil prices fall near $41 a barrel"

 

[bluenoxid]

Technically it is speculation. JP Morgan are analysts and they likely to have updated their stance on National Express. This is the resulting news story from their brief to the city.

Of course they do get it wrong (this is all speculation based on news stories (a bit like this place sometimes)). Just have to look what Porsche did last year. We made a billion selling cars to bankers. We made six billion screwing them over with Volkswagen.

 

[Techniquest]

I had heard this may happen a while ago and quite frankly I look forward to JP Morgan being right. NatEx were good with MML, there's no doubting that, but NXEC...*shudder*

I'll be here with a glass ready to say farewell and good riddance if this does pull off, but it's more likely they'll stay where they are.

 

[Metroland]

Its just speculation, anyone that reads the financial papers or business news knows it goes on all the time. Indeed, much of the banks problem is speculation. The whole damn problem with capitalism is speculation, companies and whole countries are given credit ratings and buy/sell recommendations all the time.

Several of these investors/analysts have said in the last few days the city of London is finished, and so is Britain, don't invest any money or put anything into Sterling. Many are predicting a massive fall in living standards in Britain, others are saying its not too bad.

It can be an incredibly dumb system at times and hugely destabilising.

I don't suppose it helped the Guardian newspaper publishing a story a couple of days ago the TOCs has an emergency meeting with the government. The truth is they have a meeting every month with the government.

'Commenting on today’s article in the Guardian Rail firms ask Hoon for state help…, an ATOC spokesman said:

“The story in today’s Guardian is not an accurate reflection of the discussion which actually took place at the meeting between train operators and the Secretary of State yesterday. '

http://www.atoc-comms.org/

Meanwhile the Daily Telegraph is now predicting a depression - the newspapers thrive on bad news and I wonder if there so much information now its going to make things worse. You can read anything/hear anything these days in the media internet from complete economic collapse, society breaking down due to resource wars and climate change and on the flip side how all diseases are going to be cured, and the utopia we are now approaching. Pick your poison, the truth is reality is none of the above - probably.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...nk-of-an-economic-depression-say-experts.html

 

[GNERman]

I do hope this happens as we can get National Express off the East Coast!

 

[Metroland]

Replaced by who? I would expect if they hand back 4 franchises, almost all the franchises would hand back their keys and the government end up re-nationalising the lot, as the public would not tolerate a collapse in public services/jobs without widespread riots and social unrest.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article5563020.ece

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/wor...elandic-government-brought-credit-crunch.html

 

[TDK]

I had heard this may happen a while ago and quite frankly I look forward to JP Morgan being right. NatEx were good with MML, there's no doubting that, but NXEC...*shudder*

I'll be here with a glass ready to say farewell and good riddance if this does pull off, but it's more likely they'll stay where they are.

Sometimes it is better the devil you know, look what Arriva have done with XC

 

[John_158]

Would be a bit sad if it did happen as Nat Ex are pretty good, Don't know who would take on the franchises thogh but hopefully Not Stagecoach or Ned Serco.

 

[LilLoaf]

I've just finished writing a book on National Express company profile. Its not all roses in the National Express group some very big nettles in their waiting to sting. Anyone interested in giving it a read PM me with you email address and i'll send it.

Its mostly on the operations side of things but you can read what travelling with them is like from the passengers prospective.

 

[GNERman]

I hope Virgin get the East Coast franchise

 

[driver9000]

If a large group decides one of its rail operations is to be dumped, they have to hand back all of their rail companies. This is to prevent them cherry picking the best earners.

 

[P156KWJ]

be interesting to see a 225 in virgin livery *froths*

 

[andylloyd]

Would be a bit sad if it did happen as Nat Ex are pretty good, Don't know who would take on the franchises thogh but hopefully Not Stagecoach or Ned Serco.

Shame that NXEC dont coach their staff about dealing with customers. I had a bad experience this afternoon and has put me right off travelling with them anymore. GC here I come

 

[Flyboy]

I agree entirely with Metroland.

It can be an incredibly dumb system at times and hugely destabilising.

These are exceptional times and market speculators/analysts should keep their mouths shut, heads down, and try and ride out the storm like the rest of us. One could think at times that they're actually 'damaging' the economy to benefit themselves, whilst making the rest of us suffer as a result. Thankfully though their plan does go spectacularly wrong on occasion.

 

[tbtc]

I'm really surprised at the dislike for NXEC on here - what have they done that's so bad?

The new livery isn't very attractive, but that's pretty trivial

They've reduced the Restaurant service, which 95% (+) of passengers never used

...but apart from that, they've done okay IMHO, and they've got some good solid plans for future expansion (compared to GNER who had lots of ideas like Doncaster Parkway but never implemented them in almost a decade).

If big public transport companies like National Express don't want to operate TOCs, then who else do you suggest has the experience and the deep pockets?

 

[GNERman]

I don't know what a 225 would look like but a GNER pendolino might look like this...http://fictitiousliveries.fotopic.net/p32194718.html
Or an NXEC 89 (I think I might throw up)http://fictitiousliveries.fotopic.net/p48418704.html
Or an NXEC Deltic http://fictitiousliveries.fotopic.net/p48660035.html

 

[BOSCH]

Shame that NXEC dont coach their staff about dealing with customers. I had a bad experience this afternoon and has put me right off travelling with them anymore. GC here I come

To the dark side welcome you are !!

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

be interesting to see a 225 in virgin livery *froths*

Or how about a 225 in GC Livery !!! lol (sits and waits for all the anti GC plebs to have a go !!!)

 

[me123]

Shame that NXEC dont coach their staff about dealing with customers. I had a bad experience this afternoon and has put me right off travelling with them anymore. GC here I come

I actually had a very good service with them today; but a hit-and-miss customer service isn't good. Thing is, I've never had a bad experience with this company; in fact, quite the opposite, all my journeys have been fantastic. Perhaps it's a case of, when things go wrong, they do go wrong.

 

[andylloyd]

I actually had a very good service with them today; but a hit-and-miss customer service isn't good. Thing is, I've never had a bad experience with this company; in fact, quite the opposite, all my journeys have been fantastic. Perhaps it's a case of, when things go wrong, they do go wrong.

The service was spot on, it was the just an awkward member of platform/dispatch staff that really got on my goat. I've never had a problem with GNER or NXEC up until now. I just think that their staff could be coached better on how to deal with passengers rather than being baulchy and arrogant.
Sorry *Rant* Over

 

[sven945]

I hope Virgin get the East Coast franchise

I can't imagine that would ever be allowed to happen. Between the WCML and the ECML appears to be pretty much the only thing that could be described as real competition on the railways (and even then there are limited numbers of journeys you'd have real choice) so I can't see DfT ever considering letting one company run both (relatively) high speed London-Scotland routes.

 

[andylloyd]

To the dark side welcome you are !!

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Or how about a 225 in GC Livery !!! lol (sits and waits for all the anti GC plebs to have a go !!!)

Here's a thought for you all.
How about GC?

 

[jagardner1984]

This is almost certainly a negotiating tactic in their discussions with the Hoonster, to create the impression of instability when in fact it is probably just a reduction in profit growth.

Which of course we can't allow to happen.

If they had any common sense, they would take the opportunity to restructure, either by full renationalisation or by having a publically appointed and accountable operator. Operator Profits for failure was unpalatable in economic good times given the vast subsidy, but profits for failure in recession will become a scandal, I would predict.

But given common sense is not something The Hoonies are blessed with ...

 

[O L Leigh]

This is almost certainly a negotiating tactic in their discussions with the Hoonster, to create the impression of instability when in fact it is probably just a reduction in profit growth.

Except that this story didn't originate with NX. It came from a firm of city analysts with no direct connection with the railway.

It's just froth.

O L Leigh