EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[northwichcat]

Oh and correct me if I am wrong on this but didn't Wales vote to leave the EU!

The result for Wales as a whole was:

Leave 52.5% (854,572)
Remain 47.5% (772,347)

Wales and England voted in favour of the EEA in 1975 and to leave the EU in 2016, while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted against being in the EEA in 1975 but in favour of remaining in the EU in 2016.

So no real scope for Wales joining a breakaway UK with Scotland if the new UK is to join the EU.
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But back to the election, if the 48% all voted for the two pro-EU parties (LD, SNP) and pro-EU MP's of LAB/CON, the 52% split their votes between LAB/CON/UKIP and add those who didn't vote in the referendum it's very hard to see who would come out the winner! If Labour voters supporting Brexit thought of voting UKIP; but the result was clearly gonna be a Tory/UKIP coalition, would they still vote UKIP?

The proposed boundary changes could make the next election interesting. Sometimes people don't bother voting because they know it's a safe seat but if the boundaries are redrawn it'll make the result less predictable.

Andy Burnham has said if he elected as metro mayor for the Manchester city region (for which he is the favourite) he will resign as Leigh MP. Paul Nuttall has said he won't stand as a candidate for any by-elections before the Manchester mayoral election because he wants to stand in a Leigh by-election (provided there is one.) If that happens and Nuttall doesn't do well I think it will be difficult to see UKIP winning seats in the North in a general election.

 

[miami]

So Today we have Trump saying the UK is doing great after brexit, juxtaposed with another fall in the pound, and the chancellor's plan to change us into a tax haven with all the lovely workers rights that go with that.

 

[Howardh]

The result for Wales as a whole was:

Leave 52.5% (854,572)
Remain 47.5% (772,347)

Wales and England voted in favour of the EEA in 1975 and to leave the EU in 2016, while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted against being in the EEA in 1975 but in favour of remaining in the EU in 2016.

So no real scope for Wales joining a breakaway UK with Scotland if the new UK is to join the EU.
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The proposed boundary changes could make the next election interesting. Sometimes people don't bother voting because they know it's a safe seat but if the boundaries are redrawn it'll make the result less predictable.

Andy Burnham has said if he elected as metro mayor for the Manchester city region (for which he is the favourite) he will resign as Leigh MP. Paul Nuttall has said he won't stand as a candidate for any by-elections before the Manchester mayoral election because he wants to stand in a Leigh by-election (provided there is one.) If that happens and Nuttall doesn't do well I think it will be difficult to see UKIP winning seats in the North in a general election.

That's interesting, a scouser standing in Greater Manchester! Wouldn't put money on his chances there...
less seriously, if he did stand, I suppose the key could be who Labour put against him. Is Balls still looking for a seat or has he given up entirely? Any other high-profile ex-MP's?

Labour Andy Burnham 24,312
Conservative Louisa Townson 10,216
UKIP Les Leggett 8,903
Liberal Democrat Bill Winlow 1,150
TUSC Stephen Hall 542

Looks a nailed-on Labour seat to me, around a third of their vote would have to switch to UKIP for Nuttall to have any chance.

 

[northwichcat]

That's interesting, a scouser standing in Greater Manchester! Wouldn't put money on his chances there...

Leigh is in the Wigan borough, which is an area where people are more likely to refer themselves as being Lancastarians than Mancuians.

There could be a scouse seat available if Steve Rotheram gets elected as mayor of Liverpool and stands down as Liverpool Walton MP but Nutall probably wouldn't fancy his chances of winning a seat where 81% of voters voted Labour at the last general election!

Labour Andy Burnham 24,312
Conservative Louisa Townson 10,216
UKIP Les Leggett 8,903
Liberal Democrat Bill Winlow 1,150
TUSC Stephen Hall 542

Looks a nailed-on Labour seat to me, around a third of their vote would have to switch to UKIP for Nuttall to have any chance.

I think it's worth also considering the 2010 and 2005 election results when predicting who might win. For Richmond Park if you looked at just the 2015 results you'd probably have predicted no-one had any chance against Zac Goldsmith in the by-election but if you looked at 2010 and 2005 then it looked like the Lib Dems could win the by-election - which they did.

 

[Garmoran]

The Republic of Ireland would not want to join a new UK, while if a vote was given to Northern Ireland there's a high chance the majority would vote to join the Republic.

Much as I would like to see this happen, I do wish people would stop repeating this: it is so obviously untrue to anyone familiar with the population and politics of Northern Ireland and undermines the credibility of anything else that the writer has to say.

Northern Ireland has other work through at the moment, but those of its citizens concerned about Brexit must be envious of the situation in Scotland. Although the SNP are, understandably, making as much political capital as possible from the situation, at least they are focussed on it and working to try and mitigate its effects.

 

[northwichcat]

Much as I would like to see this happen, I do wish people would stop repeating this: it is so obviously untrue to anyone familiar with the population and politics of Northern Ireland and undermines the credibility of anything else that the writer has to say.

Northern Ireland has other work through at the moment, but those of its citizens concerned about Brexit must be envious of the situation in Scotland. Although the SNP are, understandably, making as much political capital as possible from the situation, at least they are focussed on it and working to try and mitigate its effects.

I was meaning in hypothetical scenario described by another poster of Scotland leaving the UK and asking Wales & (Northern) Ireland to join them in creating a new union. If the politicians decided remaining with England outside the EU wasn't viable and a standalone state wasn't viable either then the two most likely options would be:
1. Join Scotland and Wales
2. Join ROI

The way I envisaged it is that would be like the UK Brexit vote - if the politicians put it to a public vote then they would need to have a plan for (2) winning because it could win despite the number of people in Northern Ireland who see themselves as more British than Irish.

 

[Domh245]

Leigh is in the Wigan borough, which is an area where people are more likely to refer themselves as being Lancastarians than Mancuians.

There could be a scouse seat available if Steve Rotheram gets elected as mayor of Liverpool and stands down as Liverpool Walton MP but Nutall probably wouldn't fancy his chances of winning a seat where 81% of voters voted Labour at the last general election!

Or were they had voted to remain!

 

[jon0844]

So Today we have Trump saying the UK is doing great after brexit, juxtaposed with another fall in the pound, and the chancellor's plan to change us into a tax haven with all the lovely workers rights that go with that.

Not just that, but also making a point about immigration too. Which will of course please those who voted to leave on that basis (obviously only a tiny few, as most were concerned with the EU's growing power).

 

[miami]

In my area the companies who have reduced staffing levels have seen highly qualified staff being made redundant who then can't get the jobs created because they are low skilled minimum wage jobs for which they are seen as overqualified.

Many of those jobs are fairly easy to move to other countries.

For young people in those jobs (I see many of them working in london paying £1500 a month for a room in a shared house 50 minutes away from the office), who don't have families and schools to think about, I'd encourage looking at places like Berlin or Lisbon while they still have freedom of movement.

 

[Howardh]

I was meaning in hypothetical scenario described by another poster of Scotland leaving the UK and asking Wales & (Northern) Ireland to join them in creating a new union. If the politicians decided remaining with England outside the EU wasn't viable and a standalone state wasn't viable either then the two most likely options would be:
1. Join Scotland and Wales
2. Join ROI

The way I envisaged it is that would be like the UK Brexit vote - if the politicians put it to a public vote then they would need to have a plan for (2) winning because it could win despite the number of people in Northern Ireland who see themselves as more British than Irish.

United Celtdom?

 

[HSTEd]

So Wales will chose borders with England over borders with the EU?....

I don't see that happening - not least because Wales voted for Brexit as well...

 

[Howardh]

So Wales will chose borders with England over borders with the EU?....

I don't see that happening - not least because Wales voted for Brexit as well...

The strange thing is, per person, don't the Welsh receive more in cash/assistance from the EU than any area of England, yet they voted against it?

No idea how it works, just something I recall from the vote.

 

[miami]

The strange thing is, per person, don't the Welsh receive more in cash/assistance from the EU than any area of England, yet they voted against it?

No idea how it works, just something I recall from the vote.

Not just Wales. Almost every area voting leave received massive benefits from the EU. But hey, these people think the UK is part of Schengen and have had enough of experts telling them facts. They'd rather believe a bus.

 

[northwichcat]

They'd rather believe a bus.

I'd rather believe the destination display on a bus than Boris or Farage. 99% of the time the destination display on a bus gives accurate information.

 

[EM2]

I'd rather believe the destination display on a bus than Boris or Farage. 99% of the time the destination display on a bus gives accurate information.

Adverts on the side of a bus may not, though.

 

[Howardh]

I'd rather believe the destination display on a bus than Boris or Farage. 99% of the time the destination display on a bus gives accurate information.

"Where is the bus heading, driver?"

"Armageddon"

"Can I have a return, please?"

Deep dark echoey laugh

:-?

 

[anme]

Not just Wales. Almost every area voting leave received massive benefits from the EU. But hey, these people think the UK is part of Schengen and have had enough of experts telling them facts. They'd rather believe a bus.

You have to respect democracy. Look at, for example, the Nissan employees in Sunderland who voted to leave the EU. In the end, you can say that they were misled, you can complain about the level of education in the UK, you can say there must be lead in the water. But these people have to accept responsibility for their actions. Five minutes of reading Wikipedia would have given them all the information they needed to vote remain. Now they must live with their decision. They must explain it to their children.

We must not let them off lightly.

 

[Howardh]

You have to respect democracy. Look at, for example, the Nissan employees in Sunderland who voted to leave the EU. In the end, you can say that they were misled, you can complain about the level of education in the UK, you can say there must be lead in the water. But these people have to accept responsibility for their actions. Five minutes of reading Wikipedia would have given them all the information they needed to vote remain. Now they must live with their decision. They must explain it to their children.

We must not let them off lightly.

Great....except we have to too

 

[anme]

Great....except we have to too

Leave the country. I appreciate it may be a wrench and take a lot of effort, but seriously, you won't regret it.

 

[overthewater]

The simple fact was many people felt there were not being heard, Many of those people never felt the EU didn't even cared about there issues. Many of those people never felt westminster cared either so given all of them a bloody nose.

Its not the voters fault this happened, it could have all been stopped if certain politician get the heads out of their backsides. No the EU just wanted to believe everything was alright.

I still found it strange, Just this past week another strike took place up in Aberdeen because companies were underpaying workers who were not British born and come in off the ship from the north sea.

 

[WelshBluebird]

The simple fact was many people felt there were not being heard, Many of those people never felt the EU didn't even cared about there issues. Many of those people never felt westminster cared either so given all of them a bloody nose.

Its not the voters fault this happened

But it is the voters fault that they thought that by voting leave their issues would be solved.

 

[burneside]

You have to respect democracy. Look at, for example, the Nissan employees in Sunderland who voted to leave the EU. In the end, you can say that they were misled, you can complain about the level of education in the UK, you can say there must be lead in the water. But these people have to accept responsibility for their actions. Five minutes of reading Wikipedia would have given them all the information they needed to vote remain. Now they must live with their decision. They must explain it to their children.

We must not let them off lightly.

I can live with my decision to vote leave quite easily. How exactly do you intend to "not let them off lightly"?

 

[overthewater]

But it is the voters fault that they thought that by voting leave their issues would be solved.

Can you explain that point?

 

[AlterEgo]

But it is the voters fault that they thought that by voting leave their issues would be solved.

No, people voted to leave because they were sick of not being listened to. Little thought was given to the consequences in the minds of many.

I can sympathise with people who feel that way, though I'm sad we are leaving.

 

[Howardh]

Leave the country. I appreciate it may be a wrench and take a lot of effort, but seriously, you won't regret it.

It had been my plan...sort of. Things never go to plan but > finish caring early 60's (or later!), inherit *our* house. Sell and buy retirement studio here, and buy or long-term rent small apartment "over there" preferably with shared pool.
Spend just over half the year here, just under half there to avoid tax complications. Maybe rent out apartment for extra income.

Return home when health fails to be close-ish to what's left of our family. Now, for various reasons, not least the uncertainty over Brexit that's on hold, and if the Spanish make life difficult for Brits retiring there after Brexit, it's off. Just fly out lots and lots when I can!

Of course, remainers would have been welcome to use my poolside apartment for a much reduced fee! Brexiters would much rather stay at home in their beloved Ingurland so they would probably be upset if I invited them
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Many of those people never felt westminster cared either so given all of them a bloody nose.

Its not the voters fault this happened, it could have all been stopped if certain politician get the heads out of their backsides.

If they felt Westminster didn't care and they had their heads stuffed up the proverbials, then why did they vote to give them even greater powers? Politicians generally only take notice of the public when it suits them.

 

[overthewater]

If they felt Westminster didn't care and they had their heads stuffed up the proverbials, then why did they vote to give them even greater powers? Politicians generally only take notice of the public when it suits them.

Yet 80% of all mps are remain.

 

[EM2]

The simple fact was many people felt there were not being heard, Many of those people never felt the EU didn't even cared about there issues. Many of those people never felt westminster cared either so given all of them a bloody nose.

What issues?

 

[WelshBluebird]

Can you explain that point?

I'll make it easy for you.

1 - Group of people has issues.
2 - Group believes that leaving the EU will improve those issues.
3 - The UK, partly thanks to the above, votes to leave.
4 - Leaving the EU will not actually help improve those issues.
5 - So what happens next? I doubt that group of people will be very happy as what they see as issues still won't change or get better.

Even if you take the vote to leave as a message from that group of people that they are fed up of MPs not listening to them, what logic exists where that means MPs will listen to those issues going forward?
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No, people voted to leave because they were sick of not being listened to. Little thought was given to the consequences in the minds of many.

I can sympathise with people who feel that way, though I'm sad we are leaving.

As above, even if you take that view, there exists no logic where voting to leave means politicians will listen to other issues that exist.

 

[Railops]

I can live with my decision to vote leave quite easily. How exactly do you intend to "not let them off lightly"?

I think we all know what that statement means, undisguised threats are rather pathetic but are the only things that bad losers can come up with.

 

[ainsworth74]

Many of those people never felt the EU didn't even cared about there issues ... so given all of them a bloody nose.

... No the EU just wanted to believe everything was alright.

Apart from all that money they spent on deprived areas of the UK you mean?