EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[furnessvale]

The EU is under no real legal obligation to negotiate if the UK is acting in bad faith.
You get your two years and then you are out no matter what has happened in the interim.
If you upset the EU they might just refuse to show up or deliberately stonewall you as your precious supply of days drains away.

That precious supply of days does not exclusively belong to the UK.

Fair enough, UK exports to the EU would be in trouble, but is Germany going to see its exports to the UK of BMWs, Mercs, Audis stop? How about French wine, cheese, Renaults, Citroens and Peugeots?

 

[deltic]

That precious supply of days does not exclusively belong to the UK.

Fair enough, UK exports to the EU would be in trouble, but is Germany going to see its exports to the UK of BMWs, Mercs, Audis stop? How about French wine, cheese, Renaults, Citroens and Peugeots?

But will Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia who export very little to the UK care less - it has to be a unanimous agreement

 

[HSTEd]

That precious supply of days does not exclusively belong to the UK.

Fair enough, UK exports to the EU would be in trouble, but is Germany going to see its exports to the UK of BMWs, Mercs, Audis stop? How about French wine, cheese, Renaults, Citroens and Peugeots?

The EU might notice a slight sting if that trade stops, but the UK would be in far worse straits.
This is the same argument I used in the Scottish independence case, England would be hurt but Scotland would be devastated.

 

[Phil.]

Then why does my passport say British Citizen in it?
That 'subject' thing is just some nonsense made up by Republic as a talking point.
There are very few 'British subjects' left alive

Because it's issued under EU regulations. The British passport of yore - with it's dark blue cover - would have described you as a British subject. It's easy really. Monarchies have subjects, republics have citizens.

 

[HSTEd]

Because it's issued under EU regulations. The British passport of yore - with it's dark blue cover - would have described you as a British subject. It's easy really. Monarchies have subjects, republics have citizens.

And yet the legal status of 'British subject' is almost entirely extinct.
I suggest you read up on current British nationality law.

One cannot become a 'British subject', it will be extinct with the next 30 years or so once every remaining holder dies of old age.

Subject simply means that the person is subject to the sovereign power - it does not in any way indicate what kind of sovereign power it is.

EDIT:
And if this idea of subject/citizen is inherent, why would the EU not permit 'subject' to be used when a substantial fraction of all EU states have monarchies?
Sweden, The Netherlands, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Spain, Belgium and Luxembourg - which includes several of the founder members.

 

[miami]

Because it's issued under EU regulations. The British passport of yore - with it's dark blue cover - would have described you as a British subject. It's easy really. Monarchies have subjects, republics have citizens.

If you're so wilfully ignorant of UK law that's been in place over 35 years I suggest you return to education.

 

[anme]

That precious supply of days does not exclusively belong to the UK.

Fair enough, UK exports to the EU would be in trouble, but is Germany going to see its exports to the UK of BMWs, Mercs, Audis stop? How about French wine, cheese, Renaults, Citroens and Peugeots?

This post shows a *huge* misconception.

Even if no agreement is reached, trade between the UK and the rest of the EU is not going to stop. To put it in perspective - there is no specific trade agreement between the EU and the US today. Trade happens under default WTO rules. And yet the EU and the US are major trading partners.

If the UK and the EU do not agree new trading arrangements, trade will become more expensive and more bureaucratic. So, for example, BMWs, Mercedes-Benz and Audi cars may get more expensive in the UK if the UK decides to impose tariffs. That may decrease their sales. It's unlikely to completely stop sales, though, as not everyone who buys a BMW will change to a Nissan made in Sunderland just because the price of the BMW increases.

Similarly, the EU might decide to impose tariffs on cars imported from the UK, so Nissans made in Sunderland would become more expensive in the EU, and some buyers may therefore swap to cars made in the EU.

So trade in goods will continue, although perhaps with some new costs and bureaucracy, which will increase in the long term if the UK decides to diverge from European regulations and standards (which it will no longer have any say in deciding). I'll leave you to think about who will lose proportionally more.

Much more dangerous for the UK is that trade in some services may be stopped, as cross-border services are typically subject to heavier regulation. Services form around 80% of the UK economy.

 

[northwichcat]

Currently a lot of people born outside the EU can claim dual nationality of two countries e.g. Brazil+Portugal, UK+Hong Kong, UK+Canada, Mexico+Spain etc. That may result in a Brazilian coming to the UK with an EU passport (issued by Portugal) but it also might result in a Canadian going to Germany with an EU passport (issued by the UK.) I'm sure UKIP would be quick to point out leaving means the Brazilian would have to go elsewhere (unless they are a qualified person who we need in the UK.) However, what if all the people from countries like Hong Kong and Canada whose first choice would be to live elsewhere in Europe moved to the UK instead? How would that affect net migration?

 

[miami]

Currently immigration from outside the EU is higher than the 'targets' set by the government. Anyone who thinks brexit will reduce immigration (aside from effects from a collapsing economy) is having a laugh.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Currently immigration from outside the EU is higher than the 'targets' set by the government. Anyone who thinks brexit will reduce immigration (aside from effects from a collapsing economy) is having a laugh.

The thing is, even if it did reduce (or even stop) immigration, it certainly isn't going to be a magic bullet for the issues that are often blamed on immigration, e.g. the lack of housing, the difficulty in getting GP appointments, issues with the NHS etc, because these issues are fundamentally a result of government policy over the last couple of decades rather than a result of immigration.

 

[Garmoran]

Because it's issued under EU regulations. The British passport of yore - with it's dark blue cover - would have described you as a British subject. It's easy really. Monarchies have subjects, republics have citizens.

Yet another crime put down to the villanous EU, despite the fact that passports of other EU countries have multiple forms of describing the holders, which may or may not describe them as a citizen: indeed the passports of citizens of the most populous country of the EU tell us only that "The Holder is a German", with no mention of citizenship.

It will be interesting to see who or what will be blamed for all that is inconvenient and unpopular when we have our Red, White and Blue Brexit and the EU has no control or influence over the UK.

 

[anme]

Yet another crime put down to the villanous EU, despite the fact that passports of other EU countries have multiple forms of describing the holders, which may or may not describe them as a citizen: indeed the passports of citizens of the most populous country of the EU tell us only that "The Holder is a German", with no mention of citizenship.

It will be interesting to see who or what will be blamed for all that is inconvenient and unpopular when we have our Red, White and Blue Brexit and the EU has no control or influence over the UK.

Indeed. It is staggering to see the level of ignorance on show in the UK today.

On a separate note, why would anyone want to be a "subject" rather than a "citizen"? Being a "subject" seems very undignified.

 

[Senex]

Indeed. It is staggering to see the level of ignorance on show in the UK today.

On a separate note, why would anyone want to be a "subject" rather than a "citizen"? Being a "subject" seems very undignified.

Not only "seems" but genuinely "is". Although the notion that we still live in a feudal society carried by this terminology is bad enough, even worse is the proof that we do in the continuing existence of those mediaeval powers that allow governments to act without consultation with parliament. (And don't both political parties just love those powers!)

 

[HSTEd]

Theresa May can only act without consulting parliament if parliament permits it to be so. Parliament can do anything it desires - it could have her removed from office if it wanted.

Indeed it could pass a Bill of Attainder declaring her guilty of treason if it wanted.

 

[furnessvale]

But will Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia who export very little to the UK care less - it has to be a unanimous agreement

The man who pays the piper calls the tune. Who pays the piper in the EU?

Hint, it is none of the countries you mentioned (and before you say it, I am not referring to the UK).
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Much more dangerous for the UK is that trade in some services may be stopped, as cross-border services are typically subject to heavier regulation. Services form around 80% of the UK economy.

What percentage of UK services are linked to the EU as opposed to worldwide?

 

[HSTEd]

The man who pays the piper calls the tune. Who pays the piper in the EU?

Hint, it is none of the countries you mentioned (and before you say it, I am not referring to the UK).
[/size]

In the terms of the trade deal with Canada, it wasn't even a country.
It was the Region of Wallonia.

A trade deal will only be agreed if the entirity of the EU, save the UK, unanimously agreed.
And quite a lot of Eastern Europe is rather attached to freedom of movement.

 

[dosxuk]

The man who pays the piper calls the tune. Who pays the piper in the EU?

Will Germany be in a good or bad position if several other countries decide to leave the EU and the Euro collapses?

 

[furnessvale]

In the terms of the trade deal with Canada, it wasn't even a country.
It was the Region of Wallonia.

A trade deal will only be agreed if the entirity of the EU, save the UK, unanimously agreed.
And quite a lot of Eastern Europe is rather attached to freedom of movement.

Thanks for reaffirming two good reasons for leaving the EU.
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Will Germany be in a good or bad position if several other countries decide to leave the EU and the Euro collapses?

Germany will be strong enough to re-establish the DM, invoke article 50, sign a trade deal with the UK and any other country around the world it wishes to trade with, without having to get the permission of Wallonian peasant farmers.

 

[Driver365]

The main reason most people voted out at the referendum is pure nationalistic stupidity and nationalistic flag waving fervour...nothing more. The quote " We've got ARE country back " says it all....

Racism and nationalism has been sanctioned..it's called Brexit. I live in an area of high immigration and have made some lovely Eastern European friends.

Brexit is slightly akin to Marmite...you either hate it or you will soon

As you can probably guess I'm a remainer, despite my age. I think it's absolute madness to leave the EU

The best video I saw on the referendum was done by Channel 4 news conducted shortly after the result came in....several people in Barnsley (my old home town ) were interviewed about why they had voted to leave... the best answer was "to stop Syrians, Africans and Muslims coming here" :roll:

 

[Johnuk123]

The main reason most people voted out at the referendum is pure nationalistic stupidity and nationalistic flag waving fervour...nothing more. The quote " We've got ARE country back " says it all....

Racism and nationalism has been sanctioned..it's called Brexit. I live in an area of high immigration and have made some lovely Eastern European friends.

Brexit is slightly akin to Marmite...you either hate it or you will soon

As you can probably guess I'm a remainer, despite my age. I think it's absolute madness to leave the EU

The best video I saw on the referendum was done by Channel 4 news conducted shortly after the result came in....several people in Barnsley (my old home town ) were interviewed about why they had voted to leave... the best answer was "to stop Syrians, Africans and Muslims coming here" :roll:

Whilst having a rant you could have at least got the quote right.

 

[dosxuk]

Whilst having a rant you could have at least got the quote right.

What's wrong with it? I've seen numerous brexiteers post exactly that.

 

[Johnuk123]

What's wrong with it? I've seen numerous brexiteers post exactly that.

Have you really ? or have you seen "We've got OUR country back" - think about it.

 

[anme]

Have you really ? or have you seen "We've got OUR country back" - think about it.

You're missing the point.

In other news, any views on the statement that the UK will be "at the front of the queue" for a trade agreement with the US? It seems rather strange given that it comes from an incoming administration that was elected on an anti-free trade platform and that wants to tear up its existing free trade agreements?

 

[backontrack]

Have you really ? or have you seen "We've got OUR country back" - think about it.

Nope, it's probably the ARE version.

 

[Trog]

In other news, any views on the statement that the UK will be "at the front of the queue" for a trade agreement with the US? It seems rather strange given that it comes from an incoming administration that was elected on an anti-free trade platform and that wants to tear up its existing free trade agreements?

He seems to see the world a bit simplistically so you are either in or out. If you are out it looks like he will not care if doing you down hurts the long term interests of the USA. Conversely if you are in you may get a deal better than that a more stable President might offer. The UK has been a long term supportive ally of the US, we more or less meet the percentage input into NATO he has suggested. He may therefore feel that we deserve at pat on the head, to demonstrate that nice things happen to countries he approves of. A downside of this is that it probably would not take much to swap us to his bad books.

 

[anme]

He seems to see the world a bit simplistically so you are either in or out. If you are out it looks like he will not care if doing you down hurts the long term interests of the USA. Conversely if you are in you may get a deal better than that a more stable President might offer. The UK has been a long term supportive ally of the US, we more or less meet the percentage input into NATO he has suggested. He may therefore feel that we deserve at pat on the head, to demonstrate that nice things happen to countries he approves of. A downside of this is that it probably would not take much to swap us to his bad books.

Being honest, it's unlikely to make much difference. Any trade deal is not going to come anywhere close to what the UK will lose by leaving the single market and however good the agreement, you will never trade as much with a country that's 3000 miles away than one that 30 miles away. Also, what exactly does the UK make that the US would be so keen to buy? Given that Trump wants to expand US manufacturing, such a deal might actually be bad for the UK if imports from the US flood in and undermine local goods (such as are left).

Anyway this may well be moot. Even Liam Fox - a true fundamentalist - thinks the UK may stay in the customs union. This will leave the UK with very little or no scope for independent trade deals.

 

[miami]

What's wrong with it? I've seen numerous brexiteers post exactly that.

https://twitter.com/joshhealey8/status/746245282959081472 for example? Or http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/forum/174267/weve-got-are-country-back/?
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You're missing the point.

In other news, any views on the statement that the UK will be "at the front of the queue" for a trade agreement with the US?

It's a load of old Tosh. The actual view of Wilbur Ross, the incoming secretary of commerce, states

• Donald Trump’s trade chief has urged Britain’s rivals to exploit the “God-given opportunity” of Brexit to steal business from the UK.
• "I recommend that Cyprus should adopt and immediately announce even more liberal financial service policies than it already has so that it can try to take advantage of the inevitable relocations that will occur during the period of confusion,"

More at the original source - The Times (paywalled) http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/use-brexit-to-steal-uk-trade-says-trump-aide-22rkpmfr7

Or at CNBC (and many more): http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/27/brex...tml?view=story&$DEVICE$=native-android-mobile

Ross has also referred to Brexit as the "most expensive divorce proceeding in the history of the world."
The 79-year-old private equity billionaire has endorsed the "Trump trade doctrine," which stipulates that any new trade must reduce the U.S. trade deficit, strengthen manufacturing and boost growth. Britain has a trade surplus with the U.S.

In contrast, everyone's favourite foreign secretary didn't meet Trump. Or Ross. Or Tillerson, the new Secretary of State.

He met Trump's Son-in-law and Steve Bannon (former ceo of far-right website breitbart and 'chief strategist').

He was shunned, yet came away with a "it'll be fine" view. It's hilarious if it wasn't so sad.

 

[backontrack]

Just re-read the first 15 pages or so of this thread. A few points:

1) I really wish that I'd stayed up and watched it unfold. I couldn't, because it was a school night, but people were talking a lot about how riveting it was to watch. Seeing the results neck and neck - it looked like a nailed-on Brexit after Kettering, yet Remain were leading at Lambeth - and then suddenly the pound tanking to its 1985 level must have been exciting. Domh245 and TheKnightWho's commentary (among others' posts) formed part of that. As Domh said...

Honestly, a 'big bang' result like this was probably better than staying up all night and watching it (the vote and the value of the pound) slip away whilst slowly coming to terms with it.

2) I feel a bit vindicated for pessimistically predicting a Leave vote while Brexiteers thought that the UK'd stay in. The body language shown by IDS and Nicky Morgan in their interviews, which I did see, gave the game away I thought.

3) Seeing people wake up and see their reactions was another part of the 'fun'. Some were shocking. Others were frankly idiotic. Reading them now, it basically just feels a bit like a massive hangover.

4) One half of the country hates the other half. One half feels that is has had its future wrecked by the will of the other half.

We are nearly all complete strangers.

Think about that for a moment. We are all strangers. And yet the hatred from both sides of the camp has been coming out in shedloads. This referendum has been catastrophic for our country, regardless of the result, whichever side you support or whatever posters you stuck up in your windows.

That's enough, Britain. Now go to your room and think about what you've done.

I blame Cameron.

 

[Howardh]

4) One half of the country hates the other half. One half feels that is has had its future wrecked by the will of the other half.
We are nearly all complete strangers.

Couldn't empathise more.

This was supposed to unite the country, get a result, sorted, put it to bed etc but it's done the exact opposite. My vote lost, fair do's.

But for the 48% if life is made worse for us after Brexit because "they" want to keep out a relative handful of people who are Europeans like us, or they feel that the EU is some sort of "tyranny" (which I've never, ever seen anyone back that up with proof - Brexiters feel free to cut and paste pages if you like) then the split will remain.

Every long airport queue, every notch upwards in inflation, every new jobless...yes, it will be blamed on Brexit even if it isn't to blame!

OK, if Brexit works, and in 10 years the NHS is a dream, jobless totals drop, inflation is low (2% or less), pensions triple-locked and we can still breeze through the airports in the EU int the EEA/EU/UK fast lanes...then I'll doff my cap, admit I was wrong, wear a UK T-shirt with pride (but still go along to my local volleyball club which is modtly Polish, Spanish and Czechs!).

Will Brexiters ever admit they were wrong if it goes the other way?

Meanwhile - how much HAS it split the country/ Those politically engaged on forums like this, certainly. But if May abandoned Article 50, just how much backlash would there be? We now know there's no extra money for the NHS (£350m/week) and how many would simply shrug their shoulders, take stock of they were sold a dud and go back to voting for their usual party should there be an early election? Could UKIP gather enough votes to even get 10 seats inour current system?

Maybe that's the Tories idea, get it to the back of the public's minds and concentrate on the NHS and hope Brexit goes away??

 

[backontrack]

Couldn't empathise more.

This was supposed to unite the country, get a result, sorted, put it to bed etc but it's done the exact opposite. My vote lost, fair do's.

But for the 48% if life is made worse for us after Brexit because "they" want to keep out a relative handful of people who are Europeans like us, or they feel that the EU is some sort of "tyranny" (which I've never, ever seen anyone back that up with proof - Brexiters feel free to cut and paste pages if you like) then the split will remain.

Every long airport queue, every notch upwards in inflation, every new jobless...yes, it will be blamed on Brexit even if it isn't to blame!

OK, if Brexit works, and in 10 years the NHS is a dream, jobless totals drop, inflation is low (2% or less), pensions triple-locked and we can still breeze through the airports in the EU int the EEA/EU/UK fast lanes...then I'll doff my cap, admit I was wrong, wear a UK T-shirt with pride (but still go along to my local volleyball club which is modtly Polish, Spanish and Czechs!).

Will Brexiters ever admit they were wrong if it goes the other way?

Meanwhile - how much HAS it split the country/ Those politically engaged on forums like this, certainly. But if May abandoned Article 50, just how much backlash would there be? We now know there's no extra money for the NHS (£350m/week) and how many would simply shrug their shoulders, take stock of they were sold a dud and go back to voting for their usual party should there be an early election? Could UKIP gather enough votes to even get 10 seats inour current system?

Maybe that's the Tories idea, get it to the back of the public's minds and concentrate on the NHS and hope Brexit goes away??

A very good post. However, I doubt that May will 'concentrate' on the NHS - she's denying everything and obviously won't do anything good for it. Like you and Brexit, I will proudly doff my proverbial cap if I'm wrong here - but I'm pretty confident that I'm not.