EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[backontrack]

No you're very wrong this country never signed up to what the EU has become and where it wants to go, it was originally a simple trading block.
If was still that way we wouldn't be heading out now.

If things were still that way, then maybe you'd proof-read your posts. Though there's probably more chance of the NHS getting £350m a week than that happening.

 

[burneside]

Ditto for all my circle of acquaintance. I also have the good fortune to live in one of the few Northern cities where young and old alike produced a majority for Remain.

But we are still leaving the EU, regardless of where you live.

 

[backontrack]

But we are still leaving the EU, regardless of where you live.

Why do you feel you have to say that? All he did was talk about where he lived. It's almost as if Brexiteers are feeling insecure about the whole vote and want to tell everyone that Brexit will happen, even though they themselves might not like it that much.

Now, why would that be I wonder?

 

[Howardh]

Why do you feel you have to say that? All he did was talk about where he lived. It's almost as if Brexiteers are feeling insecure about the whole vote and want to tell everyone that Brexit will happen, even though they themselves might not like it that much.

Now, why would that be I wonder?

Good phrase. It really feels like they have gone and bought a car they couldn't afford, and don't really like, but are trying to convince themselves and everybody else that really they do like it and can afford it.

If Brexiters keep telling us "it will happen" we can only assume they genuinely think it won't (probably much to their relief!!).

I hope Brexit works for everyone, on the grounds I'm one of the everyone, for me if we can retain our privilege of going through the EEA/EU lanes at airports over there with just our passport then I'll be happy.

Although, saying that, if and when Brexit fails I'll allow myself a smug grin. As long as my cardboard box under the arches keeps dry.

 

[burneside]

Why do you feel you have to say that? All he did was talk about where he lived. It's almost as if Brexiteers are feeling insecure about the whole vote and want to tell everyone that Brexit will happen, even though they themselves might not like it that much.

Now, why would that be I wonder?

I just failed to see the relevance of the FM's point about having the "good fortune" of living in a remain area, it won't make a blind bit of difference to the Brexit outcome.

 

[backontrack]

I just failed to see the relevance of the FM's point about having the "good fortune" of living in a remain area, it won't make a blind bit of difference to the Brexit outcome.

Does it have to? Time Team's on right now where I am, and that won't make a blind bit of difference to the Brexit outcome.

 

[burneside]

Does it have to? Time Team's on right now where I am, and that won't make a blind bit of difference to the Brexit outcome.

I still fail to see why the FM made that point, it's as though they thought it made some of difference to the outcome.

 

[backontrack]

I still fail to see why the FM made that point, it's as though they thought it made some of difference to the outcome.

I don't think so especially. It's just a statement pointing out that not all 'old people' universally support Brexit. Besides, your name's own constituency was a Remain one!

 

[AM9]

Your choice and I respect it. If enough older people voted like you, it would appear that the remainers hoped for change in the voting pattern will not emerge.

Regrettably, all the independant opinions hold that the older generation decided to punish the government of the day by trying to drag the country out of the single market. Just as the younger generation it seems included a majority that would never consider anything else but the status quo.

 

[HSTEd]

Whilst the vote was not entirely split along age-lines, older people were more likely to vote for Brexit and younger people were more likely to vote for Remain.

If this effect is one of age-alone we would expect a shift in opinion polls towards Brexit caused by the aging of the voting population (the average age continues to increase).

However if this was caused by living at a certain time, and people living in the more modern period tend to support remain, then we would see an effect of a shift towards remain as the earlier pro-Brexit voters are removed from the pool and tend to be replaced with more pro-remain voters.

It is probably a bit of both but I think the second effect probably swamps the first one. People born in the post Cold War Europe have never known anything but the EU and are thus more likely to prefer it I think.
So we will tend to see a swing towards remain in all likelyhood.
Which is going to be interesting if, as expected, this process drags out and no good deals seem to emerge.

 

[AM9]

... So we will tend to see a swing towards remain in all likelyhood.
Which is going to be interesting if, as expected, this process drags out and no good deals seem to emerge.

We can just hope that too much damage isn't done before then than can be fixed by the new majority's representatives.

 

[Howardh]

The next ten years are interesting, especially if it's a hard Brexit. Many of the leave voters, as alluded to, will have departed, many of the young, especially the high-fliers with qualifications, will see the obstruction in gaining work in the EU that Brexit has brought.

There could well be moves to get us back in the EU at any cost. That will mean, more than likely, joining Schengen and the Euro (or their equivalent).

Hard Brexit? Expect a U-Join party with the aim to have another referendum in 2025, after the election after next.

Then everyone currently 60 who voted out, will be near 70 and have to get used to being back in the EU, using the Euro as their own currency and freedom of movement!! Happy days.

 

[backontrack]

The next ten years are interesting, especially if it's a hard Brexit. Many of the leave voters, as alluded to, will have departed, many of the young, especially the high-fliers with qualifications, will see the obstruction in gaining work in the EU that Brexit has brought.

There could well be moves to get us back in the EU at any cost. That will mean, more than likely, joining Schengen and the Euro (or their equivalent).

Hard Brexit? Expect a U-Join party with the aim to have another referendum in 2025, after the election after next.

Then everyone currently 60 who voted out, will be near 70 and have to get used to being back in the EU, using the Euro as their own currency and freedom of movement!! Happy days.

Maybe, but I doubt that we'll adopt the Euro.

 

[Howardh]

Maybe, but I doubt that we'll adopt the Euro.

Might have to. We'll see how Scotland copes in the meantime!

 

[furnessvale]

Just as interesting will be how the EU gets on in the meantime.

It's just as likely that an EU in 2025 will not be an attractive place to rejoin.

 

[backontrack]

Just as interesting will be how the EU gets on in the meantime.

It's just as likely that an EU in 2025 will not be an attractive place to rejoin.

Brexiters do seem to have a habit of going 'yeah, but the EU will be worse' all the time.

We'll see.

 

[Railguy1]

It still saddens me about what has happened. It just feels like the world is getting a lot ****tier right now

 

[miami]

Maybe, but I doubt that we'll adopt the Euro.

Economy too weak?

 

[Senex]

Leaving aside for a moment any rights and wrongs of Brexit, why are we hearing so little about the impact of an English-driven Brexit on future relationships within the United Kingdom? Scotland, which is treated as a distinct nation and which now enjoys a very large degree of devolution, voted very clearly to remain in the EU, and yet faces being dragged out by May's essentially English Tory government in a hard Brexit which looks more and more to be driven by the interests of the English Brexiteers with no consideration for other parts of the UK at all. Is there a risk in the middle to longer term of a real souring of relations between Scotland and England as long ago relations between Ireland and Great Britain were so soured when the latter totally failed to consider the interests of the former?

 

[miami]

Scotland agreed to Westminster rule in 2015. They suffer the same as the rest of us, unless someone can claim that Little England and Wales are actually leaving the UK - leaving the UK consisting of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and perhaps local referendums on a LA by LA basis on a "stay or go" basis. Those who want to leave the EU agree to go, those who don't agree to stay. There may be a few exclaves but I'm sure something could be worked out. rUK gets to keep all the opt outs and other powers that we have in the EU, and Little England can rejoin the UK when it realises it's a scary world out there.

 

[Senex]

Scotland agreed to Westminster rule in 2015. They suffer the same as the rest of us, unless someone can claim that Little England and Wales are actually leaving the UK - leaving the UK consisting of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and perhaps local referendums on a LA by LA basis on a "stay or go" basis. Those who want to leave the EU agree to go, those who don't agree to stay. There may be a few exclaves but I'm sure something could be worked out. rUK gets to keep all the opt outs and other powers that we have in the EU, and Little England can rejoin the UK when it realises it's a scary world out there.

Unfortunately I suspect the Nasty Little England Parties won't have realised it's a scary world out there during my lifetime -- though that at least means that I shan't see them eating humble pie and taking all the terms the EU forces on them.

But I was actusally thinking about something even longer term. Over centuries England(-and-Wales)+Scotland managed to stuff up our relations with Ireland pretty comprehensively (I would actually choose to use much stronger language if this weren't the group!), and it's taken the best part of a century to get them back to any sort of normality. And now we seem to be adopting the same sort of contempt towards Scottish views on a major topic for the future of the nation when those views differ from those of the majority in England. Can the May attitude be anything but harmful to long-term good relations between the two nations, even if they're part of one state (as, of course, Ireland once was)?

(I was horrified to see on a newspaper web-site some time in the last two or three days an article trying to argue that if Ireland had any sense, it would pay much more attention to what the United Kingdom was doing than to what its European partners were thinking. Far too many echoes of the past there!)

 

[HSTEd]

Scotland had its chance to get out of the door.
It chose not to take it.

It is not possible to have a functioning state if one part of it constantly holds the threat of secession over the rest like a sword of damocles.
Scotland cannot be given a veto over any British government policy decision it doesn't like.

In addition I am not entirely sure it is sustainable in the long run for the Republic of Ireland to be in the Single Market if the UK is not.
Cross-border smuggling would be effectively impossible to stop and would occur on an enormous scale.

If it is hard Brexit, I think the CTA is probably on borrowed time.
Also I don't think the UK would ever rejoin the EU if it was required to accept the terms that many people in this thread believe the EU would attempt to force on it.
It would take isolation and being an overgrown tax haven over the humiliation you believe would be coming it's way. It is more likely the EU would chose to be relatively magnanimous in accepting its return on something close to the current terms (Worse obviously but doubtful on Schengen or Euro) - so it can spend the next fifty years reminding the UK Government of how nice it was to them when it didn't have to be.
Anything else looks awfully like Brussels is treating the UK like a province in rebellion and is willing to hold the Union together at the point of an (economic) gun.

 

[Trog]

(I was horrified to see on a newspaper web-site some time in the last two or three days an article trying to argue that if Ireland had any sense, it would pay much more attention to what the United Kingdom was doing than to what its European partners were thinking. Far too many echoes of the past there!)

Given the amount of trade between the two countries the Irish would be fools if they did not pay attention to what is happening in the UK, and then positioned themselves to make the best of what happens. Which may or may not be what is best for the rest of the EU, as they are potentially in an odd situation being EU but with a lot of the linkage between them and the rest of the EU being through a soon to be non EU country.

 

[Phil.]

Leaving aside for a moment any rights and wrongs of Brexit, why are we hearing so little about the impact of an English-driven Brexit on future relationships within the United Kingdom? Scotland, which is treated as a distinct nation and which now enjoys a very large degree of devolution, voted very clearly to remain in the EU, and yet faces being dragged out by May's essentially English Tory government in a hard Brexit which looks more and more to be driven by the interests of the English Brexiteers with no consideration for other parts of the UK at all. Is there a risk in the middle to longer term of a real souring of relations between Scotland and England as long ago relations between Ireland and Great Britain were so soured when the latter totally failed to consider the interests of the former?

It's because Scotland is part of the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom's subjects (we're not citizens, we have a monarchy) voted to leave. Scotland is extremely happy to take money from Westminster and have it's M.P.s voting on English matters in the same place so Scottish people should stop bleating and blathering. Does anyone in Scotland really believe that their country could survive without the rest of the U.K. propping it up?

 

[HSTEd]

It's because Scotland is part of the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom's subjects (we're not citizens, we have a monarchy) voted to leave. Scotland is extremely happy to take money from Westminster and have it's M.P.s voting on English matters in the same place so Scottish people should stop bleating and blathering. Does anyone in Scotland really believe that their country could survive without the rest of the U.K. propping it up?

Then why does my passport say British Citizen in it?
That 'subject' thing is just some nonsense made up by Republic as a talking point.
There are very few 'British subjects' left alive

 

[northwichcat]

Theresa May finally gives some details about how Brexit could potentially works and it results in the pound dropping in value.

The value of the pound has fallen to a two-month low against major currencies after Prime Minister Theresa May signalled the UK would pursue a so-called "hard Brexit" from the EU.

Sterling fell about 1% across the board. The only currency against which it gained ground was the Turkish lira.

The Prime Minister told Sky News on Sunday that she wanted the best possible deal for leaving the EU.

However, she dismissed the idea that the UK could "keep bits of membership".
She added: "We're leaving. We're coming out. We're not going to be a member of the EU any longer."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38555673

 

[miami]

I know we cannot SIGN trade deals with other countries before we leave the EU, but if we talk to other countries before 1st April 2019 precisely what is the EU going to do about it?

How many trade negotiators do you think we have?

 

[HSTEd]

EU would likely suspend negotiations until such time as the negotiations with the third party stop.

 

[furnessvale]

Brexiters do seem to have a habit of going 'yeah, but the EU will be worse' all the time.

Would that be more or less than the "post brexit UK will be a third world country" rhetoric of the remainers?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

EU would likely suspend negotiations until such time as the negotiations with the third party stop.

Would that be legal, IF there is nothing illegal in the UK talking to others as opposed to actually signing anything?

 

[HSTEd]

Would that be legal, IF there is nothing illegal in the UK talking to others as opposed to actually signing anything?

The EU is under no real legal obligation to negotiate if the UK is acting in bad faith.
You get your two years and then you are out no matter what has happened in the interim.
If you upset the EU they might just refuse to show up or deliberately stonewall you as your precious supply of days drains away.