EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Barn]

I'm not sure the EU has jurisdiction to require Ireland to impose visa restrictions. Remember Ireland isn't in Schengen.

(Although there is a slight concern in that regard as if you read Ireland's Schengen exemption it effectively piggybacks on ours).

 

[radamfi]

Does any EU country allow residents from a non-EU to live there without a visa, where the other EU countries require a visa for residents from that non-EU country?

 

[Barn]

Does any EU country allow residents from a non-EU to live there without a visa, where the other EU countries require a visa for residents from that non-EU country?

The Schengen area has common policies for visa free travel and for the grant of short stay visas.

Each member state has its own policy on long term visas and immigration (although obviously enforcement is difficult within Schengen).

Ireland is outside of Schengen altogether and isn't bound by the common policies.

 

[northwichcat]

You are talking about a totally different matter.....but then you know that anyway....Don't you?

Oh you were talking about 'Brexit means Brexit' not 'Red, White and Blue Brexit.' :roll:

 

[northwichcat]

I'm not sure the EU has jurisdiction to require Ireland to impose visa restrictions. Remember Ireland isn't in Schengen.

(Although there is a slight concern in that regard as if you read Ireland's Schengen exemption it effectively piggybacks on ours).

Does the common travel area currently also allow border-free travel between the Republic of Ireland and the Channel Islands and Isle of Man?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Does the common travel area currently also allow border-free travel between the Republic of Ireland and the Channel Islands and Isle of Man?

I believe so.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[miami]

It all rather illustrates the need for the UK and EU to come up with an agreement regarding Nationals settled overseas as soon as possible and exclusive of other negotiations. This would be sensible and in both sides interest.

Such an agreement already exists.

 

[AM9]

Because the brexit MPs don't like to hear independant civil servants giving facts and other information gathered from the 27 member states and the EU hierarchy, they want to politicise the civil service so that they only express brexit ideology. This is a very worrying step that threatens the neutral status of the Civil Service, and in doing that, diminishes the credibility of the eventual negotiators.

 

[anme]

No, that's a generalisation with very little evidence, and even so, those that were interviewed in the areas where 'Leave' outweighed 'Remain' (Hull for instance0, the demographic of those voters suggested they were far from 'old', not to mention your use of the word 'overwhelmingly' is quite disingenuous.

Absolute nonsense. Really, truly, how can you post this stuff? Are you not embarrassed? Look at the statistics: https://www.statista.com/statistics/567922/distribution-of-eu-referendum-votes-by-age-and-gender-uk/
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Such an agreement already exists.

Exactly, and the UK wants to tear it up. Thanks.
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Fully agree. Sadly the offer has been made by the UK but rebuffed by the EU. Somehow, this has been translated to be the fault of the UK.

The UK wants to tear up the current arrangements which work very well, and you're blaming the rest of the EU? It's hard to know how to even reply to such logic.

Anyway, I don't see how anything could be negotiated now before article 50 has been invoked. Like it or not, this is tied to all other subjects such as single market access. The four European freedoms are indivisible. I hope you now understand that.

 

[miami]

The UK wants to tear up the current arrangements which work very well, and you're blaming the rest of the EU? It's hard to know how to even reply to such logic.

Anyway, I don't see how anything could be negotiated now before article 50 has been invoked. Like it or not, this is tied to all other subjects such as single market access. The four European freedoms are indivisible. I hope you now understand that.

I believe this is the timeline:

Article 50 gets invoked on March 31st 2017

We then start negotiating our withdrawal with the EU, how we unpick ourselves legally from the union.

On March 31st 2019 we leave the EU (unless all 28 countries agree to delay it, or the ECJ rules that the article wasn't actually invoked correctly)

On April 1st 2019 we have no trade agreements with anyone in the world, and can begin signing them. Our main trading partners, thanks to a fluke of geography, are those nearest to us, and that's Europe. WTO prices apply, and large tarrifs will apply until we sign a deal.

When Greenland left the EC (on it's independence from Denmark), it took them 3 years to agree a deal with the EC on a single good -- fish -- which accounts for over 95% of it's exports. There are somewhere in the region of 4000 categories of goods in international trade.

Of course Greenland is still ruled by Brussels. At least time time they can legitimately say they have no say in it.

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-05-10/what-lessons-can-the-uk-learn-from-greenland-leaving-the-eu/

The other major downside is that leaving the control of Brussels did not free them from what the ‘Leave’ campaign call the dead-hand of Brussels regulation. Far from it.

They are no longer at the table when fisheries are discussed, but if they are to sell into the single-market - which they must - then every rule applies to them as much as it does to us.

But still, fun times ahead. Red White and Blue Brexit means Brexit. How do you like your Brexit in the morning? I like mine with a kiss.

 

[Howardh]

How do you like your Brexit in the morning?

I like the full continental

 

[47802]

I believe this is the timeline:

Article 50 gets invoked on March 31st 2017

We then start negotiating our withdrawal with the EU, how we unpick ourselves legally from the union.

On March 31st 2019 we leave the EU (unless all 28 countries agree to delay it, or the ECJ rules that the article wasn't actually invoked correctly)

On April 1st 2019 we have no trade agreements with anyone in the world, and can begin signing them. Our main trading partners, thanks to a fluke of geography, are those nearest to us, and that's Europe. WTO prices apply, and large tarrifs will apply until we sign a deal.

When Greenland left the EC (on it's independence from Denmark), it took them 3 years to agree a deal with the EC on a single good -- fish -- which accounts for over 95% of it's exports. There are somewhere in the region of 4000 categories of goods in international trade.

Of course Greenland is still ruled by Brussels. At least time time they can legitimately say they have no say in it.

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-05-10/what-lessons-can-the-uk-learn-from-greenland-leaving-the-eu/


But still, fun times ahead. Red White and Blue Brexit means Brexit. How do you like your Brexit in the morning? I like mine with a kiss.

Isn't also the case that many people seem to think the WTO is an automatic default position but isn't it the case that in reality we will have to reach agreement with the WTO and its members.

 

[miami]

Isn't also the case that many people seem to think the WTO is an automatic default position but isn't it the case that in reality we will have to reach agreement with the WTO and its members.

We're already a WTO member ("The 28 member States of the EU are also WTO members in their own right"). WTO isn't a great place to be in, but it's where we'll be on April Fools Day 2019.

As the Leave campaign said:
http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128

Then, as European ports start having to deal with the unexpected burden of thousands of inspections, and a backlog of testing as a huge range of products sit at the ports awaiting results, the system will grind to a halt. It won’t just slow down. It will stop. Trucks waiting to cross the Channel at Dover will be backed up the motorway all the way to London.

For animal products exported to the EU, the situation is even worse — if that is possible. Products from third countries (which is now the UK) are permitted entry only through designated border inspection posts (BIPs). Only at these can they be inspected and, if necessary, detained for testing. But, for trade between the UK and EU member states, there are no designated BIPs. Until one (or more) has been nominated and equipped trade in these products stops dead — say goodbye to a £12 billion export trade.
...
Yet one of the most important types of trade agreement is the Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA) on conformity assessment. This gets round the problem of border checks, as the EU will then recognise the paperwork on product testing and conformity certification. Throw in an agreement on Customs cooperation — to ensure that official paperwork and systems mesh — and you are on your way to trouble-free border crossings.
....
One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government would allow it. If, on the other hand, the official Leave campaign adopts it, the Remain side will be counting its blessings.

God knows how we're going to negotiate 6 dozen MRAs with countries from China to the US on April 1st 2019 and have them in place before the containers start backing up. We can't negotiate before then as we're part of the EU, and we've got thousands of things to negotiate, and we don't even know what we want other than a "red white and blue brexit".

What a mess.

 

[furnessvale]

God knows how we're going to negotiate 6 dozen MRAs with countries from China to the US on April 1st 2019 and have them in place before the containers start backing up. We can't negotiate before then as we're part of the EU, and we've got thousands of things to negotiate, and we don't even know what we want other than a "red white and blue brexit".

What a mess.

I know we cannot SIGN trade deals with other countries before we leave the EU, but if we talk to other countries before 1st April 2019 precisely what is the EU going to do about it?

 

[miami]

Well I suppose we can see what they want. The US for example typically faxes their terms over to the smaller country, the smaller country signs, job done. I'm not sure that would be in our best interests.

{A} leading American trade negotiator discussing the slow progress being made on a trade deal between the US and the EU. It was taking time, he said, because the US was having to learn how to deal with an adversary who was an equal. This was in stark contrast with the way the US deals with individual countries. “Normally we just fax them our terms and tell them to sign

I wonder what deals other countries will offer to us, and if those deals will be better than what we currently have with them. Which country should be top of our list in your view? Do we have experienced negotiators ready to deal with 50+ countries in parallel, in addition to the EU where the bulk of our trade goes?

As a leave campaign said, the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option, so we need something on April Fools Day 2019.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Well I suppose we can see what they want. The US for example typically faxes their terms over to the smaller country, the smaller country signs, job done. I'm not sure that would be in our best interests.

On reading this, why am I suddenly reminded of past supplier deals with Tesco?

 

[backontrack]

How do you like your Brexit in the morning? I like mine with a kiss.

Soft or hard?

 

[Senex]

I know we cannot SIGN trade deals with other countries before we leave the EU, but if we talk to other countries before 1st April 2019 precisely what is the EU going to do about it?

If they discover that we're talking to other countries whilst we're still technically members, they can make the negotiations very much more difficult. There's little enough reason for them to feel generously inclined to us as it is, without behaviour on our part shewing contempt for the system that we freely signed up to.

 

[Railops]

If they discover that we're talking to other countries whilst we're still technically members, they can make the negotiations very much more difficult. There's little enough reason for them to feel generously inclined to us as it is, without behaviour on our part shewing contempt for the system that we freely signed up to.

No you're very wrong this country never signed up to what the EU has become and where it wants to go, it was originally a simple trading block.
If was still that way we wouldn't be heading out now.

 

[Howardh]

No you're very wrong this country never signed up to what the EU has become and where it wants to go, it was originally a simple trading block.
If was still that way we wouldn't be heading out now.

We were free to leave at any stage.

 

[furnessvale]

We were free to leave at any stage.

We have now decided that stage has arrived.
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If they discover that we're talking to other countries whilst we're still technically members, they can make the negotiations very much more difficult. There's little enough reason for them to feel generously inclined to us as it is, without behaviour on our part shewing contempt for the system that we freely signed up to.

The small print says we cannot sign independent trade deals.

Does it actually say "no talking"?

Anyway, I'd be very surprised if such discussions are not already taking place.

 

[Howardh]

We have now decided that stage has arrived.

Wonder what will happen if the majority begin to think otherwise? As the result wasn't binding, it will be an interesting tactical decision if, half-way through negotiations, public opinion sways strongly against Brexit.

There's nothing in the rule book that says voters can't change their minds (either way, of course).

Would the government abandon Brexit? Go to the country again? Or carry on regardless of public opinion, as we don't have a scheduled General Election until 2020. So what would happen at that election?

 

[furnessvale]

Wonder what will happen if the majority begin to think otherwise? As the result wasn't binding, it will be an interesting tactical decision if, half-way through negotiations, public opinion sways strongly against Brexit.

There's nothing in the rule book that says voters can't change their minds (either way, of course).

Would the government abandon Brexit? Go to the country again? Or carry on regardless of public opinion, as we don't have a scheduled General Election until 2020. So what would happen at that election?

The only way of knowing that would be another referendum. Of course, if by some chance this recorded a change of heart, Brexiters would demand another referendum which remainers would feel duty bound to grant.......wouldn't they?

 

[AM9]

Wonder what will happen if the majority begin to think otherwise? As the result wasn't binding, it will be an interesting tactical decision if, half-way through negotiations, public opinion sways strongly against Brexit.

There's nothing in the rule book that says voters can't change their minds (either way, of course).

Would the government abandon Brexit? Go to the country again? Or carry on regardless of public opinion, as we don't have a scheduled General Election until 2020. So what would happen at that election?

It may not even need the current majority to reduce because the electorate is unhappy with the approaching settlement. A far more probable wasting away of the leave majority exists because of the demographics of the referendum voting pattern. Given that the majority of elderly voters voted leave, and the majority of under 35s voted remain, the effect of 2 years' deaths in society (mostly over 70 years old) and the number of new teens reaching voting age, that narrow majority in the referendum would rapidly change into a leaning towards remaining were the public to be given an opportunity to express their views on this government's negotiating handiwork.

 

[furnessvale]

It may not even need the current majority to reduce because the electorate is unhappy with the approaching settlement. A far more probable wasting away of the leave majority exists because of the demographics of the referendum voting pattern. Given that the majority of elderly voters voted leave, and the majority of under 35s voted remain, the effect of 2 years' deaths in society (mostly over 70 years old) and the number of new teens reaching voting age, that narrow majority in the referendum would rapidly change into a leaning towards remaining were the public to be given an opportunity to express their views on this government's negotiating handiwork.

You forget that old people were not born 70 years old. They were all young once and full of bright ideas like membership of the EU. Fortunately, as they get older they learn sense and change their views thus keeping the balance 52:48.

 

[AM9]

You forget that old people were not born 70 years old. They were all young once and full of bright ideas like membership of the EU. Fortunately, as they get older they learn sense and change their views thus keeping the balance 52:48.

I doubt that those who have already seen the difference between the utopia offered in the referendum politicking and the reality that is slowly being admitted, would be swayed.The referendum was a point in time where voters realised that they could let the politicians know that they didn't like being ruled in the way that they saw it going. Most of the key players in the leaving camp are either neutral or eager to change the status quo. The trade packages that will emerge will make no concessions to most of those that contributed to the referendum majority, save for an illusion of immigration control. These generally poorer voters will, however bear the brunt of the economic and social cost of the forthcoming downturn, the rich having already made their profit from the uncertainty.
Somebody who is 69 who isn't already hooked into the leaving camp is very unlikely to suddenly jump on-board that wagon at the turn of three score and ten, yet a teenager who has an interest in their future probably has a large part of their understanding and opinion established before their 18th birthday.
The leaver leaders know all this which is why they are getting very impatient at every problem that comes up. Hence the 'just do it' positions with an intention to make it too late to go back irrespective of how damaging to all of our lives the exercise turns out to be.

 

[burneside]

I doubt that those who have already seen the difference between the utopia offered in the referendum politicking and the reality that is slowly being admitted, would be swayed.The referendum was a point in time where voters realised that they could let the politicians know that they didn't like being ruled in the way that they saw it going. Most of the key players in the leaving camp are either neutral or eager to change the status quo. The trade packages that will emerge will make no concessions to most of those that contributed to the referendum majority, save for an illusion of immigration control. These generally poorer voters will, however bear the brunt of the economic and social cost of the forthcoming downturn, the rich having already made their profit from the uncertainty.
Somebody who is 69 who isn't already hooked into the leaving camp is very unlikely to suddenly jump on-board that wagon at the turn of three score and ten, yet a teenager who has an interest in their future probably has a large part of their understanding and opinion established before their 18th birthday.
The leaver leaders know all this which is why they are getting very impatient at every problem that comes up. Hence the 'just do it' positions with an intention to make it too late to go back irrespective of how damaging to all of our lives the exercise turns out to be.

And as an understanding teen I voted to leave the Common Market in 1975.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

You forget that old people were not born 70 years old. They were all young once and full of bright ideas like membership of the EU. Fortunately, as they get older they learn sense and change their views thus keeping the balance 52:48.

Speaking from the septuagenarian age area that encompasses both my good lady wife and I, together with friends of the same age group, we all voted to "Remain" in the said referendum, not because of any lack of the learning of sense to which you so allude, but from a considered view of matters so prevailing that had been gained from a lifetime of experiences.

 

[Senex]

Speaking from the septuagenarian age area that encompasses both my good lady wife and I, together with friends of the same age group, we all voted to "Remain" in the said referendum, not because of any lack of the learning of sense to which you so allude, but from a considered view of matters so prevailing that had been gained from a lifetime of experiences.

Ditto for all my circle of acquaintance. I also have the good fortune to live in one of the few Northern cities where young and old alike produced a majority for Remain.

 

[furnessvale]

Speaking from the septuagenarian age area that encompasses both my good lady wife and I, together with friends of the same age group, we all voted to "Remain" in the said referendum, not because of any lack of the learning of sense to which you so allude, but from a considered view of matters so prevailing that had been gained from a lifetime of experiences.

Your choice and I respect it. If enough older people voted like you, it would appear that the remainers hoped for change in the voting pattern will not emerge.