EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[northwichcat]

"Ryanair boss O’Leary favors ‘really hard’ Brexit"
http://www.politico.eu/article/ryanair-boss-oleary-favors-really-hard-brexit/

This story gives a good view on how the rest of Europe sees the UK.

Full article

Michael O’Leary, boss of the airline Ryanair, hopes for “a really hard Brexit,” he said Tuesday evening.

“There’s an official line and the unofficial line,” O’Leary said when asked what kind of Brexit he favors at the POLITICO 28 event in Brussels.

“The unofficial line is that I favor a really hard Brexit, because the British will realize a really hard Brexit will be so damaging to the economy I suspect they will fudge it to the next general election in the U.K. and then, God help us, we’ll probably have a Labour-Lib Dem government led by Jeremy Corbyn, who knows even less about Europe than the Brexiteers do.”

He said Brexit would be a boost to his own country, Ireland.

“The Irish economy will boom because we’ll be the only place foreign investment wants to go to. Business will work its way around the system, and we’ll all be fine in the end.”

Businesses like Ryanair, he said, would continue to invest and grow, while U.K. politicians make “a complete balls of Brexit” because “they haven’t a clue what they’re trying to do or achieve.”

“I think we should enjoy the entertainment and the spectacle that Brexit is bringing to us,” he said.

O’Leary also took a dig at former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who was at the event, saying: “Nigel will still be roaming around giving speeches, talking rubbish — but very plausible, very entertaining rubbish.”

“I’m very optimistic about the future of Europe, as long as we refocus on it being a single market,” O’Leary said, adding that he was “looking forward hugely to 2017.”

 

[Howardh]

Is the next stage a UJOIN party, where all today's schoolkids are growing up in an EU-less world, looking over their shoulders and wanting to be part of it? It doesn't take much for 52/48 to swing the other way, and if a greater % of OUT votes came from the elderly then the result could be naturally be overturned within a few years.

Will our betters allow us another referendum in, say, 5 - 10 years time if that's the public will?? Or does "democracy" only work when it suits?? I suppose it's ove valid reason for an extremely soft Brexit as it may prevent future calls for a referendum - should a SB work.

 

[northwichcat]

It doesn't take much for 52/48 to swing the other way

Agreed and that's really the underlying reason why Brexiters are so against any kind of vote or referendum on whether we should accept the final Brexit package. I would also imagine if we did have a vote/referendum and the result was reversed the Brexiters would be quick to say that doesn't mean the majority are against Brexit, it means the majority aren't satisfied with the deal even though Brexit apparently means Brexit. :roll:

 

[Trog]

"Ryanair boss O’Leary favors ‘really hard’ Brexit"
http://www.politico.eu/article/ryanair-boss-oleary-favors-really-hard-brexit/

This story gives a good view on how the rest of Europe sees the UK.

Is this the chap who is well known for popping up in the media and saying outrageous things. Then sitting back and enjoying the publicity benefit for his airline.


As for Britain falling on hard times being good for Ireland. Seems a bit unlikely to me, as we are I believe their major trading partner. Anything that empties our wallets is likely to mean less money being spent on their exports. May however be of benefit to someone owning an airline that allows people to avoid having to go through full customs twice on their way to Europe.
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Is the next stage a UJOIN party, where all today's schoolkids are growing up in an EU-less world, looking over their shoulders and wanting to be part of it? It doesn't take much for 52/48 to swing the other way, and if a greater % of OUT votes came from the elderly then the result could be naturally be overturned within a few years.

Will our betters allow us another referendum in, say, 5 - 10 years time if that's the public will?? Or does "democracy" only work when it suits?? I suppose it's ove valid reason for an extremely soft Brexit as it may prevent future calls for a referendum - should a SB work.

Would the EU have us back?

As one thing almost all this speculation seems to ignore in both directions is that a lot of these things require both sides to agree.

Or if they did would it only be on harsh terms?

 

[Howardh]

Regarding Ireland, if we revert to WTO rules and there are tariffs/taxes on goods coming into the UK, will that apply to goods from the Republic into the UK? If not, would the EU allow that (ie one partner enjoying free trade with the UK and the other 26 not) and, in any case, how could goods be challenged/taxed when crossing an un-manned border?
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Would the EU have us back?

Or if they did would it only be on harsh terms?

Answered your own question! Clearly if it's to the EU's benefit they would have us back at a stroke, and we would probably be of more financial benefit than, say, Turkey.

The fly in the elephant would be Spain regarding Gibraltar. Spain will most probably close the border, or even charge to cross it (not forgetting that they could well invade) and allowing the UK back into the EU would force them to re-open, thus they would vote against us joining.

I can see, ultimately, Gibraltar having joint sovreignity which is against 98% of Gibraltar's will.

 

[miami]

Is the next stage a UJOIN party, where all today's schoolkids are growing up in an EU-less world, looking over their shoulders and wanting to be part of it? It doesn't take much for 52/48 to swing the other way, and if a greater % of OUT votes came from the elderly then the result could be naturally be overturned within a few years.

Of course, the result needed 1.3 million to close the gap. In the 6 months since June 240,000 people, mostly old, and thus mostly brexit, have died, and about 350,000 17 year olds (mostly remain) have turned 18.

Add in the "I only voted exit to complain about cameron" idiots and I suspect the result would be very different. Unlike a general election though, we can't undo the mistake in a few years time.

Will our betters allow us another referendum in, say, 5 - 10 years time if that's the public will?? Or does "democracy" only work when it suits?? I suppose it's ove valid reason for an extremely soft Brexit as it may prevent future calls for a referendum - should a SB work.

Doesn't matter, the permament damage will be done the second article 50 is invoked. I suspect the only way we would be able to revoke article 50 would be to do something like giving up the rebate. If we end up leaving and then want to rejoin in a few years I suspect it will mean taking the euro and Schengen. For Euro-Federalists brexit is a blessing in disguise.

 

[Trog]

Regarding Ireland, if we revert to WTO rules and there are tariffs/taxes on goods coming into the UK, will that apply to goods from the Republic into the UK? If not, would the EU allow that (ie one partner enjoying free trade with the UK and the other 26 not) and, in any case, how could goods be challenged/taxed when crossing an un-manned border?

Am I right in thinking that the EU insists that it's members man the their section of the external border? In which case the Irish Republic may be forced by Brussels to set up effective border controls.
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The fly in the elephant would be Spain regarding Gibraltar. Spain will most probably close the border, or even charge to cross it (not forgetting that they could well invade) and allowing the UK back into the EU would force them to re-open, thus they would vote against us joining.

Am I right in thinking that the bulk of the cross border traffic Spain/Gibraltar is Spanish people going into Gibraltar to work? Would make closing the border a bit of a cutting off your nose to spite your face type exercise.

My Father-in-law was born in Gibraltar and his mother and grand-mother used to cross the straights to North Africa quite often to go shopping. Would be a pain but I suppose their current equivalents could probably do the same.

 

[AlterEgo]

Am I right in thinking that the EU insists that it's members man the their section of the external border? In which case the Irish Republic may be forced by Brussels to set up effective border controls.

No, the EU does not insist on manning, as demonstrated by the Norway/Sweden border.

 

[northwichcat]

My Father-in-law was born in Gibraltar and his mother and grand-mother used to cross the straights to North Africa quite often to go shopping. Would be a pain but I suppose their current equivalents could probably do the same.

You may or may not be aware that the Gibraltar-Tangier ferry service has been cut back so it's now only possible to use it to spend a weekend in Tangier or the working week in Gibraltar. While the ferry service from Algeciras to Morocco now goes in to a middle of nowhere port (referred to as Tangier Med) - you have to get all the way to Tarifa for a regular direct service to Tangier.

 

[Howardh]

If the Spanish did close the border again - and why should it bother about a relative handful of it's own people? - then the only links would be air and sea again, and ferries to and from the African mainland could well prosper.

Of course, to retaliate any Spanish aggression r/e Gibraltar, us and Morocco could always blockade Ceuta.

Now, who said World War III was part of "Project Fear"..???

 

[EM2]

Part of the closing remarks of the Supreme Court president, Lord Neuberger:

We are not being asked to overturn the result of the EU referendum. The ultimate question in this case concerns the process by which that result can lawfully be brought into effect. As we have heard, that question raises important constitutional issues and we'll now take time to ensure the many arguments which have been presented to us orally and in writing are given full and proper consideration.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I can see, ultimately, Gibraltar having joint sovreignity which is against 98% of Gibraltar's will.

96% of the people in Gibraltar voted to remain in the European Union, so I don't think that would concern anyone in Government...

Would the EU have us back?

As one thing almost all this speculation seems to ignore in both directions is that a lot of these things require both sides to agree.

Or if they did would it only be on harsh terms?

I think they would have us back, the political capital from having us come grovelling back to the table would far outweigh any other consideration.

But if it were to happen, it would have to involve grovelling, and lots of it. Think Hard Remain.

 

[Domh245]

I think they would have us back, the political capital from having us come grovelling back to the table would far outweigh any other consideration.

But if it were to happen, it would have to involve grovelling, and lots of it. Think Hard Remain.

It'd be interesting to see how many remain voters would vote to return to the EU post brexit with conditions such as Schengen and adopting the Euro. Obviously it'd depend on the situation at the time, but under "normal" (ie pre brexit) circumstances, I probably wouldn't.

 

[northwichcat]

If the Spanish did close the border again - and why should it bother about a relative handful of it's own people? - then the only links would be air and sea again, and ferries to and from the African mainland could well prosper.

I don't think they'd close the border but they will probably seriously consider a border crossing fee for non-EU residents. A former mayor of La Linea (the first town the Spanish side of the border) proposed a congestion charge for cars passing through the town going to and from Gibraltar. The EU said that would be classed as an illegal border crossing charge so it never happened but it could happen if Gibraltar isn't part of the EU anymore.

 

[Jonny]

Agreed and that's really the underlying reason why Brexiters are so against any kind of vote or referendum on whether we should accept the final Brexit package. I would also imagine if we did have a vote/referendum and the result was reversed the Brexiters would be quick to say that doesn't mean the majority are against Brexit, it means the majority aren't satisfied with the deal even though Brexit apparently means Brexit. :roll:

As a Brexiteer, my main grounds for opposition to a second referendum is that I would have to endure another round of whining remoaners whose warnings have already failed to come to pass. The scare tactics were bad enough first time around.

 

[AM9]

It'd be interesting to see how many remain voters would vote to return to the EU post brexit with conditions such as Schengen and adopting the Euro. Obviously it'd depend on the situation at the time, but under "normal" (ie pre brexit) circumstances, I probably wouldn't.

That depends on just how painful the 'best' deal for the UK is. Bear in mind that the frivolous voters that used their referendum votes to 'stick it on the man' (as in Cameron) are just as likely to change their minds when they realise that the rich, and many of the middle class will limit the damage that brexit causes them, leaving the unfortunate poorer members of the electorate to suffer. The problem for whatever government that presides over that mess is that those who traditionally didn't bother to vote now realise that their sheer numbers give them some serious power at the ballot box.

 

[Jonny]

Is the next stage a UJOIN party, where all today's schoolkids are growing up in an EU-less world, looking over their shoulders and wanting to be part of it? It doesn't take much for 52/48 to swing the other way, and if a greater % of OUT votes came from the elderly then the result could be naturally be overturned within a few years.

Will our betters allow us another referendum in, say, 5 - 10 years time if that's the public will?? Or does "democracy" only work when it suits?? I suppose it's ove valid reason for an extremely soft Brexit as it may prevent future calls for a referendum - should a SB work.

Once the EU totally falls to pieces in the 2020s, we Brexiteers will be justified.

 

[northwichcat]

It'd be interesting to see how many remain voters would vote to return to the EU post brexit with conditions such as Schengen and adopting the Euro. Obviously it'd depend on the situation at the time, but under "normal" (ie pre brexit) circumstances, I probably wouldn't.

So normal for Britain is the country with a huge deficit and the pound performing badly against the Euro? Ironically if we'd joined the Euro in 2000 we'd be in a better position now than we are currently in - the effect of countries like Greece on the value of the Euro is balanced out by countries like Germany. However, we've got a huge deficit and it's not being balanced out by being part of a collective currency with better performing countries.

Being in the Schengen might have allowed more illegal immigrants but the Schengen does allow passport checks at borders when deemed necessary, as demonstrated by Austria on a few occasions. Not having passport checks between the UK and France might have resulted in more day trippers coming to the UK from France and Belgium (who'd currently be put off by long queues) and been a boost to our economy. So, it's hard to say if being outside the Schengen is a bad thing.

 

[Trog]

You may or may not be aware that the Gibraltar-Tangier ferry service has been cut back so it's now only possible to use it to spend a weekend in Tangier or the working week in Gibraltar. While the ferry service from Algeciras to Morocco now goes in to a middle of nowhere port (referred to as Tangier Med) - you have to get all the way to Tarifa for a regular direct service to Tangier.

My information was decades old, but I suppose if there was a market for it due to closure of the land access to Gibraltar, running more ferries might be economic. Perhaps to a new Hyper Souk modeled on the idea of the Calais booze crossings of old. These days it would probably also be more possible to ship food in, than it was when my father-in-law was a boy.

 

[AlterEgo]

As a Brexiteer, my main grounds for opposition to a second referendum is that I would have to endure another round of whining remoaners whose warnings have already failed to come to pass. The scare tactics were bad enough first time around.

We haven't actually left the EU yet.

 

[furnessvale]

We haven't actually left the EU yet.

The warnings were of immediate recession post referendum. They haven't come to pass.

 

[dosxuk]

We haven't actually left the EU yet.

We haven't even enacted article 50 yet. The Brexiteers seem to keep conveniently forgetting the "Project Fear" claims were all based on Article 50 being implemented in the immediate days after the referendum.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Once the EU totally falls to pieces in the 2020s, we Brexiteers will be justified.

What are your attributable sources for the veracity of this statement, especially those from either Germany or France?

 

[miami]

What are your attributable sources for the veracity of this statement, especially those from either Germany or France?

Just more of project fear

Here's Mark Mardell's opinion

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38212049

...
Italy leaving the euro would be a profound shock to the EU's most important project, but it could survive. But an EU without France and the Netherlands as well as the UK?
...
It could be these elections will prove a high tide of euroscepticism, and none of the anti-EU populist parties will get anywhere near power. If so, I would suggest when the waters recede the EU will still look a very different place, eroded and fragile in the face of popular obloquy.
If one or more of these elections does deliver a hammer blow, the fracture will spread slowly, incomplete yet utterly chaotic.
We'd have to take seriously the return of a Europe of disconnected nation states, without a single market, with borders, and ask what vestiges of cooperation and common policy would remain.
It would be in tune with the mood across the Atlantic, with talk of trade barriers and an end to internationalism. The meat and drink of Brexit, the debates over customs unions or free trade would become continent wide.
...

I supsect that the EU will undergo some more change between now and 2019, either drastic change, or minor change. Perhaps even a re-brand (to "Winston Churchill's United States of Europe"?).

This could be enough reason for May to put forward another referendum -- after all the EU that we voted to leave would no longer exist.

 

[furnessvale]

I supsect that the EU will undergo some more change between now and 2019, either drastic change, or minor change. Perhaps even a re-brand (to "Winston Churchill's United States of Europe"?).

This could be enough reason for May to put forward another referendum -- after all the EU that we voted to leave would no longer exist.

Don't forget Winston Churchill's United States of Europe was Europe excluding the UK.

As we will have left by then, they are welcome to continue on the path Churchill recommended for them.

 

[anme]

As a Brexiteer, my main grounds for opposition to a second referendum is that I would have to endure another round of whining remoaners whose warnings have already failed to come to pass. The scare tactics were bad enough first time around.

You seem to be assuming that history ends today. Surely everything claimed will come to pass.
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Once the EU totally falls to pieces in the 2020s, we Brexiteers will be justified.

Yes but once it reforms in the 2030s we will be totally f***ed.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Is this the chap who is well known for popping up in the media and saying outrageous things. Then sitting back and enjoying the publicity benefit for his airline.

No, that would be two chaps: Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson (well, apart from the bit about the airline).

Would the EU have us back?

I rather suspect they would - but only if it was without all the special benefits and considerations the UK has negotiated in the past. Which is where the real tragedy for us will lie if it becomes apparent in 5-10 years that we do need to be in the EU (or if - as seems very possible - demographic changes mean that a majority wish to be in it in a few years).

 

[deltic]

Well UKIP slipped up in Sleaford - thought they would have done pretty well but end up losing votes

 

[simonw]

Well UKIP slipped up in Sleaford - thought they would have done pretty well but end up losing votes

Well if you are going to stand in an election it helps if you can spell the name of the constituency correctly on your publicity.

 

[miami]

Well UKIP slipped up in Sleaford - thought they would have done pretty well but end up losing votes

Snigger

Tory down. UKIP down. Labour down. Lib dem up.