2015-16 Estimates of station usage published

[Mordac]

Here at the ORR website: http://orr.gov.uk/statistics/published-stats/station-usage-estimates

Haven't had a chance to look at much yet, but thought I'd share.

 

[brad465]

Waterloo still lacking that 100 million milestone it appears - might change when it's all done up.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Thanks for posting.
Most stations in North Wales marginally down, Bangor flat.
Cambrian well up (10%-ish).
Some Merseyrail stations well up (eg Hooton).
Bolton well down (probably because of the engineering disruption).
General 1-2% rise across the north west/north mids. Up, but not spectacularly.
Lime St close to overtaking Central in Liverpool.
Manchester stations well up.

 

[Melancholia]

Stratford from 10th place in the previous year to 6th this year. It will definitely keep rising up, especially when Crossrail starts running and more and more residential areas are developed near Stratford.

Also not surprised at Victoria losing out approx 4 million entries/exits.

 

[Kite159]

Shippea Hill drops to 12 users!

Teeside Airport jumps to 98 (from 32)

The Coombe Junction event from the summer didn't seem to make any difference, up to 48 from 26.

My local station jumps 30K to 280K users, Andover jumps 27K to 1.2 million

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Stratford from 10th place in the previous year to 6th this year. It will definitely keep rising up, especially when Crossrail starts running and more and more residential areas are developed near Stratford.

If you look at the methodology, that's partly because they now include Oyster data.
Victoria and some other London terminals have gone down significantly as a result.
They were overstated before (the commentary says direct comparisons with last year are not valid in the Oyster area)

 

[Mojo]

The Coombe Junction event from the summer didn't seem to make any difference, up to 48 from 26.

The event happened in May 2016 whereas the reporting year runs from 1 April to 31 March.

 

[Mordac]

Every station in Northamptonshire going up (Corby not by much).

Marston Vale registering gains almost everywhere, while the St. Albans branch got even worse.

 

[Kite159]

The event happened in May 2016 whereas the reporting year runs from 1 April to 31 March.

My bad, I would have imagined the year would be slightly more upto date than 8 months ago

 

[telstarbox]

Lewisham (4 NR platforms) now has almost as many passengers as Bristol Temple Meads (13 platforms).

 

[WatcherZero]

Methodolgy changes; some changes to mainly southern season tickets where it was the same price and people were travelling short on them despite buying longer distance (e.g Southend to London), journeys wholly within oyster area now use TFL demand allocation model rather than the 2001 passenger survey that will continue to be used for cross ticketing boundary (leading to big drops at some london terminals). Tickets for London Stations now use Oyster methodology to allocate between rhem. Rail addon tickets were double counted as the addon part was already in the newer model, this affects airport addons and through metrolink tickets (leading to a big drop at altrincham). St ives Bay Line, new allocation ratio from a fresh passenger survey.

Temporary is some bolton line falls due to Farnworth tunnelling works and some Cumbrian WCML increases due to the line being blocked.

 

[ScotGG]

Lewisham (4 NR platforms) now has almost as many passengers as Bristol Temple Meads (13 platforms).

And the ever increasing towers all around it mean that growth will shoot upwards.

And today we hear TfL, who would do something about it, are blocked from taking over and the DfT will retain control. God help them - it'll fall over soon. Whitehall knows little and cares less.

 

[Kite159]

Lewisham (4 NR platforms) now has almost as many passengers as Bristol Temple Meads (13 platforms).

How many of those passengers are changing at Lewisham for easy access to the DLR?

 

[swt class 450]

As usual i think the usage estimates are likely to be quite inaccurate. Many people often have tickets to and from another station and either break their journeys or start and finish their journeys from an intermediate station (a different one to what is on their tickets). And many people use rover tickets and ranger tickets. For example many people that get on or off and visit Shippea Hill and Lakenheath could have Singles or Returns from Ely to Norwich or they could have Anglia rover tickets. Also if someone wanted to they could just go to any TVM with a "tickets from another station" feature and buy lots of tickets to and from any station but not use them (which of course would mean the statistics would show more passengers than there really are).

 

[43074]

As usual i think the usage estimates are likely to be quite inaccurate. Many people often have tickets to and from another station and either break their journeys or start and finish their journeys from an intermediate station (a different one to what is on their tickets). And many people use rover tickets and ranger tickets. For example many people that get on or off and visit Shippea Hill and Lakenheath could have Singles or Returns from Ely to Norwich or they could have Anglia rover tickets. Also if someone wanted to they could just go to any TVM with a "tickets from another station" feature and buy lots of tickets to and from any station but not use them (which of course would mean the statistics would show more passengers than there really are).

The data is based on ticket sales, though, so single and return ticket purchases should be more accurate - OK split ticketing may skew the figures in certain places and rover tickets are hard to estimate, yes. But do you really think people purchase train tickets with no intention of using them in the way you describe?? Obviously the data is unlikely to be 100% accurate but I'd suggest inaccuracies are more likely on busy lines where the conductor is unable to sell tickets, where a principal station doesn't have ticket barriers or where tickets are sold to a station 'group', for example, rather than those you suggest...

As for Shippea Hill and Lakenheath, there aren't many people who visit either full stop, rover tickets represent a very small proportion of trips so it is unlikely that the figures are likely to be massively inaccurate as you suggest...

 

[WatcherZero]

Theres also a refinement this year to tackle people travelling short on season tickets to London.

 

[AndrewE]

And many people use rover tickets and ranger tickets. For example many people that get on or off and visit Shippea Hill and Lakenheath could have Singles or Returns from Ely to Norwich or they could have Anglia rover tickets.

Except that Shippea Hill has one train a day in one direction only, at 0728 (ex Cambridge to Norwich.) As there is nothing at all there to visit, and you can't leave until the next morning (travelling on towards Norwich) I would be interested to hear how anyone manages to use the station at all.

The only way I can imagine is that they cycle there - or onwards if detraining - (or get get dropped off by car) and get home via a different station. However 12 users in the year clearly isn't a commuter.
Puzzling!

 

[Starmill]

You will find that journeys on Anglia Plus tickets are included in the figures, among a number of products. Have a good read of the methodology, it improves every year.

However, you are likely right that these are mostly underestimates - the number 1 cause being ticketless travel.

The only way I can imagine is that they cycle there - or onwards if detraining - (or get get dropped off by car) and get home via a different station. However 12 users in the year clearly isn't a commuter.
Puzzling!

12 tickets a year could be purchased by enthusiasts or in error. I know a few forum members have taken the train to Shippea Hill for the novelty. I have done the same for Teesside Airport.

 

[PR1Berske]

Also if someone wanted to they could just go to any TVM with a "tickets from another station" feature and buy lots of tickets to and from any station but not use them (which of course would mean the statistics would show more passengers than there really are).

I'm not certain that this happens in a significant enough number to skew statistics in any meaningful way. Over the course of a year, over millions of journeys, are there really enough people buying tickets from other stations just for the hell of it so as to play around with ORR number crunching? I would say probably not (would that I had the spare cash to do so!)

 

[Oliver]

Farnborough North. 1,647 in 2005-6, 344,042 in 2007-8, now 646,536 in 2015-6. Why such growth?

 

[janb]

Farnborough North. 1,647 in 2005-6, 344,042 in 2007-8, now 646,536 in 2015-6. Why such growth?

The rather cryptic note in 0708 was "group lacking ticket offices", but in 1213 when it went from the 300s to the 600s it was a rather clearer redistribution of entries/exits for the group stations based on passenger count data.

 

[crispy1978]

Cheers for posting - like looking at the various stats.

My local station (Scarborough) has a 1.48% usage increase, and Seamer a 14.85% increase - the 26k interchanges I'm guessing is something to do with that?

 

[Oliver]

Rather worrying are numbers at Wick 19,766 and Thurso 38,426, both having dropped in recent years. Compare with, at the ends of a long Welsh branch, Pwllheli 77,890 and Aberystwyth 321,758. Similar-ish for England, Skegness 354,070. The cost of running the Far North line must be desperate.

 

[northwichcat]

Altrincham's usage is up by 100,000 to 507,000 journeys per annum. ORR think that's down to station redevelopment work. If that's the case more stations need redeveloping!

 

[joncombe]

Rather worrying are numbers at Wick 19,766 and Thurso 38,426, both having dropped in recent years.

Is it really a surprise though? The service has been getting slower for years and is very infrequent. There has been some disruption to services this year due to strike action. As someone who much prefers to travel by train rather than bus it pains me to say it, but the bus services around there are better than the train. The A9 is a good road and rarely congested north of Inverness.

As far as Tain there is more or less an hourly bus service from Inverness. North of there the Stagecoach X99 and X98 are not that frequent, but they are still more frequent than the train (especially on Sundays, when there is only 1 train). They are faster than the train and operated by pretty modern coaches rather than buses. Pensioners get to travel for free on them.

It'a a shame and I would certainly not advocate the service being run down or closed but I can't really see how it can compete with even the buses. Going back to splitting the train at Georgemas Junction would be a big help though I appreciate it requires additional crew.

 

[WatcherZero]

Altrincham's usage is up by 100,000 to 507,000 journeys per annum. ORR think that's down to station redevelopment work. If that's the case more stations need redeveloping!

That's up 100,000 despite a 25.93% reduction from removing double counting. If that error hadn't been corrected like for like it would be 685,253 or an increase of nearly 280,000. And people moaned about the poor quality of the interchange refurbishment at Altrincham!

 

[LLivery]

Highbury & Islington at 28.1 million + 2.8m interchanges - up from 19.9? I'm sorry but I struggle to believe 28.1 million are just using GN and LO. There is no way H&I NR is busier than East Croydon

 

[northwichcat]

That's up 100,000 despite a 25.93% reduction from removing double counting. If that error hadn't been corrected like for like it would be 685,253 or an increase of nearly 280,000. And people moaned about the poor quality of the interchange refurbishment at Altrincham!

I was being a bit sarcastic in that response as I don't see why the interchange redevelopment would have had much effect on rail usage. There were some Sunday closures to allow the new bridge to be installed but I can't see that having much effect on passenger numbers given there's usually some Sunday closures throughout the year anyway. Even if there's a lot of people with disabilities using Altrincham Interchange the lifts have only recently become fully operational so wouldn't have had any effect on the 15/16 figures. While for attracting new users I think better trains would have much more of an effect than a better footbridge!

I wonder if the real reason was fewer people buying multi-modal tickets from the ticket office at Altrincham while the works were taking place and tickets sold at PayPoint outlets or on board the train being recorded differently to tickets sold from the ticket offices.

For Altrincham there's also the unexplained 209 interchanges. Surely a ticket like Knutsford to Old Trafford Metrolink should be recorded as a rail exit and there must be a lot more than 209 journeys per annum interchanging between rail and Metrolink at Altrincham - that would sound low for a daily estimate!

 

[backontrack]

Rather worrying are numbers at Wick 19,766 and Thurso 38,426, both having dropped in recent years.

Agreed. But there's a crap service what with the lack of a passing loop at Lentran and the crew shortages at Wick. In May, only 29% of all Inverness-Wick services managed to keep delays to under 5 minutes.

 

[kieron]

Lime St close to overtaking Central in Liverpool.

No, all four Liverpool Stations stations are up 2.4%. I wonder if they'll adjust things for the 2015-16 report to take account of no Wirral Line trains going beyond James Street for 3 1/2 months.

I was being a bit sarcastic in that response as I don't see why the interchange redevelopment would have had much effect on rail usage. There were some Sunday closures to allow the new bridge to be installed but I can't see that having much effect on passenger numbers given there's usually some Sunday closures throughout the year anyway.

This represents a 7% increase over the 2013-14 figure, compared with a 14% increase recorded for Navigation Road. By itself, the figures would suggest that Altrincham's rail platforms were closed, or at least that access to them was restricted (whether from the road, from Metrolink or for 'bus passengers) for part of the 2014-15 reporting year. I don't know what was actually happening with the station, though.

For Altrincham there's also the unexplained 209 interchanges.

The way ORCATS works things like this out is confidential, and probably isn't all that accurate. I wouldn't pay any attention to it.

On another topic, one thing I noticed in the report was that page 18 identifies Farringdon (which has a 73% increase listed for some reason) as being a London Terminal.