What Effect Will HS2 on the East/West Coast mainline?

[Johnmeric]

What Effect Will HS2 on the East/West Coast mainline?

I'm interested what people's thoughts on this project are?

 

[gordonthemoron]

according to details I've seen from DfT, VTWC services which presently do not stop at Milton Keynes will run on HS2 instead, freeing up 6 slots per hour for extra stopping services on WCML

 

[The Planner]

Apart from this needing merging with other HS2 threads, the train service spec is not confirmed on either route yet. It will free up paths is as far as you get.

 

[deltic]

The working assumptions for service patterns after HS2 opens are set out in some detail in https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...a/file/498234/assumptions_report_PFM_2016.pdf but these are purely assumptions for modelling purposes and will evolve over time

 

[DarloRich]

Apart from this needing merging with other HS2 threads, the train service spec is not confirmed on either route yet. It will free up paths is as far as you get.

This.

it is to early to suggest detail other than HS2 will free up train paths on WCML. What that looks like in the fullness of time is unknown at present.

 

[The Planner]

Indeed as 5.1.3 points out in bold.

 

[glbotu]

SPECULATION ALERT!!!

So, Phase 1 will have materially no effect on the ECML, only the WCML. It'll take 6 tph off the fast lines, allowing a greater number of trains to stop at Rugby, Milton Keynes, Watford Jn etc. One of those paths might be taken by the new XC "Birmingham Avoider" via East-West Rail, which now becomes the default "Oxford & Reading" to the North service. Otherwise, those paths will likely be eaten up by new North to South WCML corridor services (Manchester - Milton Keynes etc), with whatever's left being used by more stoppers. It might be that there'll be more "stoppers" on the Slow lines, and the semi-fasts will be moved to the fast lines.

Phase 2 will have material changes on the ECML. One of the suggestions is that the capacity released by taking out the Newcastle Fast services will be replaced by a Nottingham service, and more stopping services at Grantham, Newark, Retford etc. Leeds - London will be served via HS2, but Leeds - Doncaster, the East Midlands etc will still use the ECML.

With Nottingham Fast moving to the ECML, and Sheffield - London being an HS2 service, there'll be more room on the MML for more stopping services as well.

Basically, existing mainlines will slow down.

 

[irish_rail]

I can see the current mainline (wcml / ecml / mml ) etc filling up with none ic stock, very low standard crossrail type interiors, ugly to look at , on frequent all stations stopping services replacing the current intercity fleets on these routes.
Ok, I am exaggerating slightly, but HS2 will certainly ruin these mainlines in my personal opinion, however of course the railway is not run for enthusiasts! Glad I drive / live on the Western!

However quite how Joe Bloggs is going to appreciate metro style interiors to travel say Stoke or Chester to London is anyones guess...

 

[gordonthemoron]

Providing we get more fast(er) services from MK I don't care, although I may have moved to Honk Kong before it opens

 

[The Ham]

What Effect Will HS2 on the East/West Coast mainline?

I'm interested what people's thoughts on this project are?

It is likely that it will put the number of passengers on the mainlines to somewhere where they were at privatisation.

If we take rail growth (long distance passengers) between 2002/03 and 2015/16 where rail growth was 176% (i.e. for every 100 passengers in 2002 there are now 176). Now if we assume that rail growth continues at the same rate of growth over the same timeframe going forward then we end up with 310 passengers in 2029/30 for every 100 in 2002/03.

Now if we assume that 70% of these passengers all switch to HS2 then the number of long distance passengers is then 93 for every 100 in 2002/03. At that sort of level it would imply that there would still be plenty of demand for long distance travel on the WCML. Even if we saw a 70% switch to HS2 today there would still be 53 passengers for every 100 in 2002/03 (i.e. all existing ICWC services could run by 6 coach trains).

Even if 90% of passengers move to HS2 services then in 2029/30 that is 31 long distance passengers on the WCML for every 100 in 2002/03. That would mean that (in simple terms) for places that had a train frequency of 2tph with 9 coaches there would be still be demand for 1tph with 6 coaches.

HOWEVER, that is assuming that passenger numbers move to HS2 equally. In reality some places will see no fall (MK to London for example) whilst others will see significant falls (Manchester and Birmingham to London for example) and others somewhere between the two (Coventry to London for example).

 

[JamesT]

However quite how Joe Bloggs is going to appreciate metro style interiors to travel say Stoke or Chester to London is anyones guess...

Why would someone from those places be in a metro train to London?
Even if they don't get classic-compatibles, they'd be a single change at Crewe or Stafford onto a HS2 train which will get them to London faster and in an Intercity layout.

 

[AM9]

... However quite how Joe Bloggs is going to appreciate metro style interiors to travel say Stoke or Chester to London is anyones guess...

Well, there are plenty of passengers travelling to London in class 350s from Stoke, Stafford, Nuneaton, Rugby etc.. Whilst not as grand as a pendolino*, at 110mph with stops every 20 minutes, I found the journey acceptable. Class 350s are running in outer suburban/regional style accomodation, - not much like 'metro'. By 2030 when the HS2 services bed in, I suspect that by then, the 350s will be replaced by something that can do 125mph on straight enough track and is more than suitable for 2-hour journeys (take a look at the new class 397s for TPE and the new FLIRT GEML stock) .

There may be the odd person here who doesn't agree that class 390s are particularly grand.

 

[6Gman]

I can see the current mainline (wcml / ecml / mml ) etc filling up with none ic stock, very low standard crossrail type interiors, ugly to look at ,

However quite how Joe Bloggs is going to appreciate metro style interiors to travel say Stoke or Chester to London is anyones guess...

Why on earth would they be Crossrail-style / metro-style interiors?

Staffordshire County Council have done some work on this (they're unhappy with HS2) and suggest that Stoke's two Pendolinos ph will become a single Voyager/ 9car Pendolino * with additional stops (Nuneaton & MKC?).

Hardly Crossrail!


* Quoted for illustrative purposes. By 2027/2033 the trains may, of course, be different - but the general principle remains.

 

[miami]

Well, there are plenty of passengers travelling to London in class 350s from Stoke, Stafford, Nuneaton, Rugby etc.. Whilst not as grand as a pendolino*, at 110mph with stops every 20 minutes, I found the journey acceptable. Class 350s are running in outer suburban/regional style accomodation, - not much like 'metro'. By 2030 when the HS2 services bed in, I suspect that by then, the 350s will be replaced by something that can do 125mph on straight enough track and is more than suitable for 2-hour journeys (take a look at the new class 397s for TPE and the new FLIRT GEML stock) .

There may be the odd person here who doesn't agree that class 390s are particularly grand.

390s are horrendous - give me a 350 any day (a long distance one with a trolley service and at seat power)

 

[swt_passenger]

Why on earth would they be Crossrail-style / metro-style interiors?

Yes, agreed. This part of the discussion seems to be something of a blind alley based on a flawed assumption that there are only two types of train interior, i.e. intercity and metro with nothing in between...

 

[6Gman]

Well, there are plenty of passengers travelling to London in class 350s from Stoke, Stafford, Nuneaton, Rugby etc.. Whilst not as grand as a pendolino*, at 110mph with stops every 20 minutes, I found the journey acceptable. Class 350s are running in outer suburban/regional style accomodation, - not much like 'metro'. By 2030 when the HS2 services bed in, I suspect that by then, the 350s will be replaced by something that can do 125mph on straight enough track and is more than suitable for 2-hour journeys (take a look at the new class 397s for TPE and the new FLIRT GEML stock) .

There may be the odd person here who doesn't agree that class 390s are particularly grand.

I've done Crewe - Euston on a 350/1 in the past (all stations to Rugby - via Whitmore, not Stoke - then fast to Euston). It was ok. Wouldn't want to do it on a 350/2.

The Pendolino is faster, has catering

The 350 was slower, more spacious, better views

If LM could get a decent path up the WCML they could take some serious trade off VTWC.

(I have the good fortune to not have to pay with either!)
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

390s are horrendous - give me a 350 any day (a long distance one with a trolley service and at seat power)

Do LM still offer a trolley service anywhere?

 

[AnonymousUser1]

I can see the current mainline (wcml / ecml / mml ) etc filling up with none ic stock,

why there will still be IC services , plus more 'regional express' type workings which are currently unable to happen due to lack fo capacity

very low standard crossrail type interiors,

as opposed to IC / regional express layouts

However quite how Joe Bloggs is going to appreciate metro style interiors to travel say Stoke or Chester to London is anyones guess...

you are talking utter rubbish ...

 

[irish_rail]

Glad to see everyone agrees with me LOL

I guess I just feel its the way train building is going, heading for the lowest common denominator, look at the 700s for Thameslink with hardly any seats, or the inward facing seats on crossrail and LOROL stock.
And although nobody has seen them yet, IEP is rumoured to be a very spartan train with limited passenger comfort.

Agree 350s are fine for longer distance, just hope they are still around come 2033 when the second phase begins..

 

[swt_passenger]

And although nobody has seen them yet, IEP is rumoured to be a very spartan train with limited passenger comfort.

People have seen them, they have been reported on in the rail mags, and while not exactly the same as an HST it certainly isn't a metro layout...

 

[AnonymousUser1]

Glad to see everyone agrees with me LOL

I guess I just feel its the way train building is going, heading for the lowest common denominator, look at the 700s for Thameslink with hardly any seats, or the inward facing seats on crossrail and LOROL stock.
And although nobody has seen them yet, IEP is rumoured to be a very spartan train with limited passenger comfort.

Agree 350s are fine for longer distance, just hope they are still around come 2033 when the second phase begins..

Thameslink, Crossrail and LOROL are urban mass transit on heavy rail , not regional or 2nd string IC services

a lot of the criticism of the IEPs seems to be from the forthers who who have a fixed idea aobut some mythical golden age or loco hauled stock on IC work ( and include the HST in this as there;s no distributed traction)

 

[daikilo]

Where I am challenged is to understand what trains are actually going to run on HS2 and how they will be scheduled as so many will also be operating off the core, and sometimes more off than on.

Re the ECML, I am also curious how a passenger will decide whether to go to Kings Cross or Euston to get to say Leeds or Newcastle unless the intent is to have 2 TOCs in competition.

 

[AnonymousUser1]

.

Re the ECML, I am also curious how a passenger will decide whether to go to Kings Cross or Euston to get to say Leeds or Newcastle unless the intent is to have 2 TOCs in competition.

price / time combination

if time sensitive it may be quicker to use a service which goes onto HS2 and therefore takes advantage of higher speeds south of Leeds / Sheffield

if price senstive it may be cheaper to travel the lignes classique to KGX...

see above with regard to TGV vs lignes classiques on SNCF

 

[randyrippley]

Irrespective of whatever the plans may be, I believe ultimately it will result in a cessation of London-Scotland services on the WCML. No-one will want to run the new high-speed units on legacy lines, and there won't be investment on new long-range stock to replace the WCML Pendolinos. Anything north of Crewe will start from Manchester or Liverpool, unless XC decide to return to the WCML following any eventual electrification between Birmingham and Bristol.
In essence the WCML traffic flow will be split, requiring a change of trains for anyone going to Lancashire, Cumbria or Scotland

 

[The Ham]

price / time combination

if time sensitive it may be quicker to use a service which goes onto HS2 and therefore takes advantage of higher speeds south of Leeds / Sheffield

if price senstive it may be cheaper to travel the lignes classique to KGX...

see above with regard to TGV vs lignes classiques on SNCF

Which is why, in my post up the thread my first assumption on the switch in passenger numbers to HS2 was 70%, as there will be some who will go slow to save money and those who are going intermediate stations where HS2 could take longer, or at the very least require a double back and so cost more.

 

[edwin_m]

Since the extra capacity will be on HS2, supply and demand dictates that the fast trains are likely to be cheaper than the slower ones (or at least no more expensive). There's no reason to use LM for London-Birmingham through journeys and not very much reason to use Chiltern. These operators or their successors will need to revert to their more logical role of providing the best service at intermediate stations that don't have HS2 services.

 

[boxy321]

I and several others had the pleasure of waving off a (late) LM 350 full of shopping chavs from Coventry this morning, knowing that the Edinburgh Virgin 390 was waiting to come in to platform 3. I dread the prospect of these services being axed and the station being used for local-ish stopper trains and freight.

If the only option is feet-on-seats teenage scum, fare dodgers and out-loud music officionados I'll be back in the car. I still don't know where Lea Hall is on the map and have never been to Long Buckby, other than on the way to Northampton.

 

[TrainBoy98]

If the only option is feet-on-seats teenage scum, fare dodgers and out-loud music officionados I'll be back in the car.

Yes, because all people with feet on seats are teenagers, and all of us are quite obviously scum... :roll:

 

[The Planner]

I and several others had the pleasure of waving off a (late) LM 350 full of shopping chavs from Coventry this morning, knowing that the Edinburgh Virgin 390 was waiting to come in to platform 3. I dread the prospect of these services being axed and the station being used for local-ish stopper trains and freight.

If the only option is feet-on-seats teenage scum, fare dodgers and out-loud music officionados I'll be back in the car. I still don't know where Lea Hall is on the map and have never been to Long Buckby, other than on the way to Northampton.

Austerity mean you had to sack your driver? How dare the proles use public transport.

 

[gordonthemoron]

Why on earth would they be Crossrail-style / metro-style interiors?

Staffordshire County Council have done some work on this (they're unhappy with HS2) and suggest that Stoke's two Pendolinos ph will become a single Voyager/ 9car Pendolino * with additional stops (Nuneaton & MKC?).

Hardly Crossrail!


* Quoted for illustrative purposes. By 2027/2033 the trains may, of course, be different - but the general principle remains.

One of the Manchester-Stoke-Euston services already stops at MKC

 

[Philip Elliott]

Which is why, in my post up the thread my first assumption on the switch in passenger numbers to HS2 was 70%, as there will be some who will go slow to save money and those who are going intermediate stations where HS2 could take longer, or at the very least require a double back and so cost more.

You'd be lucky to get 50% transfer never mind 70%