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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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TheKnightWho

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Did the leave camp actually want to win? Or do they just want to be a pain in the governments side, jockey for position and play student style politics. Boris Johnson, it would seem, campaigned falsely. As a result he gets rewarded by becoming Foreign Secretary!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Because civil servants are supposed to be politically neutral. They should consider all outcomes. They offer impartial advice to government, not simply produce a report in favour of what the minister wants to hear. That means options analysis and contingency planning.




Neither camp had a decent plan. Hard or soft exit. Hard or soft remain. The remain campaign consisted of terrify the electorate and then muddle on as now with no clear strategy of what we (the nation) actually wants from its membership of Europe.



So, you finally accept the given will of the people and we should go for exit? Ignore the non-voters - they had the choice to give their opinion and chose not to do so. Of those that voted, they voted for exit. End of.

1) I agree. I'm calling out Leavers' hypocrisy for rubbishing the Home Office and Treasury when they don't give results they agree with, yet complain they don't get to use them themselves. Either they're impartial and can be trusted, or are partisan and therefore not trustworthy when Leave use them either.

2) Remain at least were warning about the effects of Leave. This became "Project Fear", apparently.

3) Accusing someone of hypocrisy does not require me to accept any of their positions. If someone keeps banging on about personal responsibility, they should take it themselves when something is their fault.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Give it a rest, anybody without your agenda can easily see your argument is rubbish, you simply cannot leave it alone you'll be in Australia soon with the speed of your shovel.

To say the Govt. had a position and so they had no need to plan for the other position is even by your standards quite a ridiculous statement but no doubt you believe it so carry on believing it.

How is my argument rubbish? You've yet to explain how it wasn't the responsibility of Leave MPs and Lords to come up with a plan.

It's very telling that you and RailOps are refusing to accept that your side screwed up. Anyone who understands how the British constitution works (and has a basic sense of responsibility) understands that it is not the responsibility of the executive (the government) to plan for things being proposed by dissenting members of the legislature (e.g. the opposition, Leavers etc.).

Loving the way you guys keep saying I'm digging whilst refusing to answer the question though. Playground bully tactics at their most incompetent. If you want to show me up, show me a coherent plan that everyone voted for. Simple as that.
 
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Johnuk123

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1) I agree. I'm calling out Leavers' hypocrisy for rubbishing the Home Office and Treasury when they don't give results they agree with, yet complain they don't get to use them themselves. Either they're impartial and can be trusted, or are partisan and therefore not trustworthy when Leave use them either.

2) Remain at least were warning about the effects of Leave. This became "Project Fear", apparently.

3) Accusing someone of hypocrisy does not require me to accept any of their positions. If someone keeps banging on about personal responsibility, they should take it themselves when something is their fault.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


How is my argument rubbish? You've yet to explain how it wasn't the responsibility of Leave MPs and Lords to come up with a plan.

It's very telling that you and RailOps are refusing to accept that your side screwed up. Anyone who understands how the British constitution works (and has a basic sense of responsibility) understands that it is not the responsibility of the executive (the government) to plan for things being proposed by dissenting members of the legislature (e.g. the opposition, Leavers etc.).

Loving the way you guys keep saying I'm digging whilst refusing to answer the question though. Playground bully tactics at their most incompetent. If you want to show me up, show me a coherent plan that everyone voted for. Simple as that.

"It's not the responsibility of the government to plan for things being proposed" is one hell of a stupid statement but if you've said it it must be right.

As you say the Leave side "screwed up" what would you call your losing side "a resounding success" ?
 

TheKnightWho

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"It's not the responsibility of the government to plan for things being proposed" is one hell of a stupid statement but if you've said it it must be right.

As you say the Leave side "screwed up" what would you call your losing side "a resounding success" ?

Do you understand what parliamentary committees are for? Do you understand the constitution at all?

As usual, your argument relies on your own limited "common sense" and incredulity that you could ever be wrong, despite your repeated demonstrations you don't actually understand how things work in this country.
 

Johnuk123

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Do you understand what parliamentary committees are for? Do you understand the constitution at all?

As usual, your argument relies on your own limited "common sense" and incredulity that you could ever be wrong, despite your repeated demonstrations you don't actually understand how things work in this country.

You win, I agree I'm uneducated, have no common sense and I'm always wrong, you were right all along.
 

TheKnightWho

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You win, I agree I'm uneducated, have no common sense and I'm always wrong, you were right all along.

You keep conflating the government and parliament.

Are you going to tell me why Leave MPs and Lords had no unified plan yet instead of always playing the victim?

Loving the manipulative "oh I must always be wrong" line though.
 
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Baxenden Bank

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1) I agree. I'm calling out Leavers' hypocrisy for rubbishing the Home Office and Treasury when they don't give results they agree with, yet complain they don't get to use them themselves. Either they're impartial and can be trusted, or are partisan and therefore not trustworthy when Leave use them either.

All leavers or some leavers hypocrisy?
I suggested civil servants are supposed to be politically neutral – I do not confirm that they actually are! Too many viewings of the Civil Service Instruction Film aka Yes, Minister colour my judgement.

2) Remain at least were warning about the effects of Leave. This became "Project Fear", apparently.

It became project fear in the same way that the single bedroom subsidy became the bedroom tax. Because underneath the spin-doctor title that is what it was. Produce as many damning statistics (suitably interpreted) as you can to scare people into voting remain. It failed. Spectacularly for unreal, out-of-touch, silver spooned Cameron and co.

3) Accusing someone of hypocrisy does not require me to accept any of their positions. If someone keeps banging on about personal responsibility, they should take it themselves when something is their fault.

Agreed. But, as I say about ‘that awful woman’ in Oldham?, such people exist. It needs to be acknowledged that we are not developing a population with strong thinking skills (or debating skills given many threads on this forum). Blame parents, teachers, the media, whatever you like, but there lots of people out there who do not think, at all, about any issues, ever. Their behaviour and any likely consequence are wholly disconnected – read the many threads about ‘fare dodged, got caught, and now it’s completely ruined my life’!

The problem is, what appears to be far too common a view, that ‘all leavers are dumb, voted without thinking, now regret it, and we remainers can brow-beat them into changing their minds’ argument. Or simply not deliver any meaningful exit by underhand and subterfuge in forthcoming negotiations.

Some leavers undoubtedly voted without thinking. Some remainers likewise. Be that along party lines or remain/leave lines or personality lines or whatever. That is the same at a general election or a local election.

Conversely I’m pretty sure some leave (and remain) voters did think about the issues and came up with a considered, balanced (from their own perspective), opinion that they do, in fact, think it better to leave (or remain).

Polarisation of the debate – here, or in the media, or parliament, will not help us all move forward and come up with a reasonable solution - which needs to be acceptable to the majority. Not the majority that voted exit but the majority that straddle the middle ground on the leave/remain spectrum. Soft exit or soft remain if you like. Forget the extremists at either end. But, at the end of the day we have, as a nation (setting aside what consitutes nation re Scotland etc), voted for an exit of some kind. Or at least voted to advise Parliament of our desire to exit. Now it is up to Parliament / The Government to heed those views or reap the whirlwind of ignoring that advisory vote.

Me, I prefer democracy to any of the alternatives, and do not like to see the way the remain camp is trying to undermine democracy. And yes, the leave camp would be behaving exactly the same had they lost. As is evidenced by setting up the on-line poll ahead of the (clearly unexpected) leave majority to demand a rerun of the referendum.

How is my argument rubbish? You've yet to explain how it wasn't the responsibility of Leave MPs and Lords to come up with a plan.

It's very telling that you and RailOps are refusing to accept that your side screwed up. Anyone who understands how the British constitution works (and has a basic sense of responsibility) understands that it is not the responsibility of the executive (the government) to plan for things being proposed by dissenting members of the legislature (e.g. the opposition, Leavers etc.).
Loving the way you guys keep saying I'm digging whilst refusing to answer the question though. Playground bully tactics at their most incompetent. If you want to show me up, show me a coherent plan that everyone voted for. Simple as that.

I disagree. It is the responsibility of the executive to plan for things being proposed by dissenting members. Or at least have some considered thoughts on the matter in order to respond to the issues. The IRA / Sinn Fein had a particular outcome in mind. The executive had to deal with those dissenting members. We now have a (working reasonably well) solution.

If you leave all the thinking to the ‘dumb leavers’ you will get a dumb result. Best for the ‘clever’ remainers to step in and suggest a solution which they are reasonably happy with whilst accommodating the leavers expressed desire. Or trample all over them because by the next election 'exit' will be a spent force and it will be back to traditional party lines, which means remain and no exit. Perhaps. Depends how good the politicians and their advisors are at driving the agenda and persuading the lumpy prols.
 
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AlterEgo

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I disagree. It is the responsibility of the executive to plan for things being proposed by dissenting members. Or at least have some considered thoughts on the matter in order to respond to the issues. The IRA / Sinn Fein had a particular outcome in mind. The executive had to deal with those dissenting members. We now have a (working reasonably well) solution.

I'm not sure if, by "Executive", you mean the Northern Ireland Executive, or the Provisional IRA Council. However neither would be a good example of how to deal with dissenting members!

With Northern Ireland, from the early 1990s, Westminster, the IRA, the British Army, and loyalist paramilitaries were all treading separate but converging roads that only had one outcome, where they met in the middle. It was not possible for them to go anywhere else.

Turning to the current Stormont parliament and the NI Exec: Essentially, anyone, loyalist or republican, who disagrees with any part of the Peace Process™ is by definiton a dissident, and lumped together with all the spectacularly myopic, sunglasses-wearing, flag-waving a***hole paramilitaries on their respective "side". It's very unfortunate and unhealthy.

I'm sure the parallels with Brexit and Trump are obvious.
 

Aldaniti

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On BBC Wales Today last night, their political editor was 'out and about' with 3 politicians on the streets of Ebbw Vale, the part of Wales that voted most heavily in favour of leave, despite the number of immigrants up there being virtually nil and receiving the most money in Wales from the EU, to get the views of the people. What they recorded was frightening.

From the clips that were played, the people interviewed just repeated the lies and rubbish that has been fed to them by the Express, the Mail and the Sun. There was no chance of remain winning up there when nearly everyone got their news and information from a lying and corrupt press.

Reporter: What's your main concern?
Person: Well it's the immigrants, they're coming over 'ere on holidays and bleeding our NHS dry. They're having operations on the NHS and not being charged for them and then go home. They're the reason our NHS is collapsing.
Politician: You know that there are a lot of immigrants who are working in the NHS?
Person: Yes but they come over 'ere.....................

Another clip, of a nice old lady

Old lady: I know it's going to be difficult, what, maybe for a year is it? (looks intently at the reporter and politicians to back her up by they just look expressionless back at her) but if we all 'cut our cloth' like my mam used to do, then we'll all be alright and it will be worth it.

The newspapers and their persistent campaigns of lies and hate over many years are the main reason why Leave 'won' the referendum. The general public were so ill informed it's beyond frightening.

Did the BBC reporter tell you how many people they had sampled and how they had chosen their interviewee(s)? The only newspaper I read is The Times, the only printed fact I take for granted is the date. I have seven O Levels, two A levels, hold a professional qualification and am a company director. I voted to leave the EU and if presented with the same question today would give the same answer, but the media probably wouldn't want to interview me because I don't fit the profile that the liberal left-leaning media like to portray.
 

LateThanNever

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Did the BBC reporter tell you how many people they had sampled and how they had chosen their interviewee(s)? The only newspaper I read is The Times, the only printed fact I take for granted is the date. I have seven O Levels, two A levels, hold a professional qualification and am a company director. I voted to leave the EU and if presented with the same question today would give the same answer, but the media probably wouldn't want to interview me because I don't fit the profile that the liberal left-leaning media like to portray.
Interesting - so how do you think Britain will benefit from leaving the EU?
 

Aldaniti

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Interesting - so how do you think Britain will benefit from leaving the EU?

Been there, done that. Going over it again will serve no purpose whatsoever given the views of the most prolific posters in this thread. I have my views, others have theirs and that's fine. The point I made to the gareth950 was in respect of the media agenda.
 

LateThanNever

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Been there, done that. Going over it again will serve no purpose whatsoever given the views of the most prolific posters in this thread. I have my views, others have theirs and that's fine. The point I made to the gareth950 was in respect of the media agenda.
We are, I agree, very poorly served by our media.
But as the only company director I've encountered who is in favour of Brexit I thought I should at least acquaint myself with those arguments. Just a bullet point summary would surely be simple?
 

furnessvale

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No he didn't. He said it was Leave's duty to come up with their own plan.

As usual, that personal responsibility thing you have going on always seems to go out the window when it comes to yourselves...

He may have said that after he lost but I thought he said before the vote that he would carry out the wishes of the people. That should surely have included plans for whichever way the vote went.
 

dosxuk

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He may have said that after he lost but I thought he said before the vote that he would carry out the wishes of the people. That should surely have included plans for whichever way the vote went.

How could plans be drawn up when even the nature of our departure still hasn't been decided?

If the Government had said "if leave wins, we'll leave the EU, and the common market, and stand on our own under WTO rules", large numbers of leave supporters would be in outcry over how that's too extreme and its unfair to have the vote when there's only stay in or run away options.

If the Government had said "if leave wins, we'll leave the EU, but remain a member of the common market and abide by the rules the EU has on that", large numbers of leave supporters would be in outcry over how that doesn't go far enough and its unfair to have the vote when there's only stay in or EU-lite options.

If they'd expressed any opinion on what a leave vote would actually entail it would have been seen by many as an attempt to sway the vote. Instead they left it at "if leave wins, we will Leave the EU".

Unfortunately it appears the official leave campaign had the same problem. By not defining what leaving actually entailed, they could gather support from a wider range of the public. It's clear now that senior members of the leave campaign did not expect to win, meaning they thought it even less needed to come up with any "what-if" plans.

It's all very well to criticise "The Government" for not coming up with official plans, but members of both sides were part of "The Government" and neither thought coming up with a plan was a good idea or use of their time. And furthermore, had there been a clear plan in place, it would have reduced the chances of leave winning, almost certainly by a greater margin than 2% of the vote. Not only would those who didn't like the plan have voted stay, but many others would have abstained from what they would call a rigged vote.


(This all reminds me of my student days, when the local students union held a referendum to enact several unpopular decisions. They packaged those decisions in with a couple of necessary things, like complying with charity law, so a "No" vote effectively became a "Shut the union down" vote, which was even more unpopular than the things they were trying to force through)
 

dcsprior

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The Cameron government may have been against Brexit, but they did bring forward the referendum. Therefore IMO they should've taken some responsibility as far as planning what to do in the event of a Leave vote.

The plan could've been quite specific, or it could've been a "plan of how to develop a plan" :) - for instance any of the following would've been sensible things IMO:
  • To have had a multi-option referendum in the first place, using single transferable vote. That way we'd know what people had actually voted for.
  • To call a general election after the leave vote, so people could choose between the parties based on what flavour of Brexit they were selling.
  • To not invoke article 50 until just before the end of the 2015-2020 parliamentary term. This way there's no opportunity for the incoming government to back away from Brexit (AIUI article 50 once triggered is binding) but they can decide the specifics. This would also have given some stability and opportunity for people to calm down a bit.
  • Form a group with representation from across the parties and beyond to debate what Brexit should mean and what risks and opportunities it brings.

I'd have thought that leavers would've had to be clear on what Brexit would actually mean, as otherwise people wouldn't vote for it, but that clearly wasn't the case - and in fact I doubt they'd have done anything like as well if they had given more specifics. I don't think you can criticise them for using tactics that worked. With hindsight, perhaps pushing the leading leavers harder to outline the specifics of what leave meant was something that would've worked well for the remain side.
 

Groningen

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Speaking to the BBC's Newsnight yesterday, Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem - who is also president of the eurozone's Eurogroup - said Mr Johnson was putting forward options that "are really not available". "He's saying things that are intellectually impossible, politically unavailable, so I think he's not offering the British people a fair view of what is available and what can be achieved in these negotiations," he said. EU leaders have continually warned that the UK cannot expect access to European markets after Brexit unless it accepts the free movement of labour.

Source: BBC
 

Trog

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Speaking to the BBC's Newsnight yesterday, Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem - who is also president of the eurozone's Eurogroup - said Mr Johnson was putting forward options that "are really not available". "He's saying things that are intellectually impossible, politically unavailable, so I think he's not offering the British people a fair view of what is available and what can be achieved in these negotiations," he said. EU leaders have continually warned that the UK cannot expect access to European markets after Brexit unless it accepts the free movement of labour.


Source: BBC

That may be true it may not. But either way he has to say something like that to protect their negotiating position. We will not know for sure until crunch time in the negotiations, when they have to decide if free movement is worth the loss of trade. Or if some sort of compromise of immigration control light will do.
 

EM2

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From the Financial Times:
https://www.ft.com/content/acb33786...hed_links/rss/world_uk_politics/feed//product
UK faces £100bn Brexit hole in budget
Autumn Statement to reveal hit to growth and tax income over next five years.

Philip Hammond will admit to the largest deterioration in British public finances since 2011 in next week’s Autumn Statement when the official forecast will show the UK faces a £100bn bill for Brexit within five years.
Slower growth and lower-than-expected investment will hit tax revenues hard, the official forecasts will show, supporting the Treasury’s pre-referendum warnings that the long-term economic costs of Brexit are high.

Instead of a surplus in 2019-20, as his predecessor George Osborne had promised, Mr Hammond will show a sizeable deficit in that year with the gap between the borrowing forecast for each year in the Budget last March and the Autumn Statement getting bigger every year.

The deterioration in the outlook — which is still a forecast and highly uncertain — will not prevent Mr Hammond from finding room for some tax cuts to help what officials in Whitehall call “Jams”, meaning families who are “just about managing”. But these giveaways will be small compared with the additional borrowing the government will plan. There will not be much room in the public finances to reset fiscal policy with a big stimulus package.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has drawn up the forecasts the government will present and officials acknowledge they have been grappling for weeks with weak tax revenues and an outlook for lower growth.

The consensus of independent economic forecasts, which are generally close to the OBR’s, show mediocre economic growth until 2020 with higher inflation and weaker business investment combining to slow revenues to the exchequer. Once converted by the OBR into likely tax revenues, the deterioration in the public finances will cumulate to around £100bn.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has estimated that a weaker economic outlook would lead to roughly £30bn in additional borrowing by 2019-20 before any gains from lower contributions to the EU budget are taken into account.

An official forecast along these lines would vindicate the Treasury’s pre-referendum central estimate of a £36bn annual cost of Brexit to the public purse but it would come only five years after the vote, indicating the cost might rise further in future.

By far the largest reason for the Brexit hole in the public finances will be lower growth. With bad income tax revenues so far this financial year, the OBR has already said it was “very unlikely” to hit the 2016-17 Budget forecast. With delays to the sales of Lloyds and RBS shares, Mr Hammond is likely to have to finance upwards of £15bn additional borrowing this year.

The red ink in the forecasts gets worse over time, mostly as a result of slower growth, but government decisions and some classification changes have also conspired to make Mr Hammond’s life difficult.

Since the Budget, the government has announced less stringent work capability tests for the disabled and a slower introduction of universal credit, which jointly add almost £5bn to borrowing over five years.

The Office for National Statistics has changed the way it measures corporation tax receipts, leaving a hole of almost £5bn in borrowing in 2019-20 and the fiscal watchdog is set to assume Britain does not save any money in net EU contributions by the end of the decade because government policy on this aspect of Brexit is not yet finalised.

Public sector debt will jump, Mr Hammond will be forced to admit, by £100bn this year, raising it from 83 per cent of national income to almost 90 per cent from higher borrowing and because the ONS has announced it will treat the Bank of England’s new term-funding scheme as additional debt.

The burden of debt is set to decline more slowly than thought in March, leaving the UK economy more vulnerable to risks of another downturn.

And from the Comments section:
CxX-B-2UAAADtmy.jpg
 
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me123

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^Yep, sounds about right. Only things missing are "Remoaners" and "Enemies of the People".
 
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Howardh

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me123

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What is a 'Remoaner'?

Where have you been for the last few months? :lol:

It's a portmanteau of "remainer" and "moaner". Designed to belittle those of us who are aware of how ridiculous this whole situation is and are actually trying to say something about it.

Because leavers have never moaned. Nope, never. (Just ignore the last 10 years of Express and Heil headlines).
 

Howardh

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Where have you been for the last few months? :lol:

It's a portmanteau of "remainer" and "moaner". Designed to belittle those of us who are aware of how ridiculous this whole situation is and are actually trying to say something about it.

Because leavers have never moaned. Nope, never. (Just ignore the last 10 years of Express and Heil headlines).

Of course, in four year's time, it will be all the remoaner's fault - we didn't moan enough!!
 

AM9

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Where have you been for the last few months? :lol:

It's a portmanteau of "remainer" and "moaner". Designed to belittle those of us who are aware of how ridiculous this whole situation is and are actually trying to say something about it.

Because leavers have never moaned. Nope, never. (Just ignore the last 10 years of Express and Heil headlines).

I had of course heard the expression but was interested to hear of anything more than it being a rather childish attempt at an insult used by leavers. On the basis of your words, I accept the label myself.
 

miami

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Where have you been for the last few months? :lol:

It's a portmanteau of "remainer" and "moaner". Designed to belittle those of us who are aware of how ridiculous this whole situation is and are actually trying to say something about it.

Because leavers have never moaned. Nope, never. (Just ignore the last 10 years of Express and Heil headlines).

In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way.
 

Howardh

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By the rules of the referendum it is finished business, one side won and the other lost. You can of course agitate for another referendum, but I wouldn't expect one for a fair few years.

On a simple (too simple??) in/out, fair enough. But we could get to the point down the line where we - whether that be the government or indeed us - get to the choice of two or more Brexits, choice of joining EFTA/EEU or even a point where the public have disillusioned with Brexit as a whole, possibly even after we have left the EU.

Question is, would the Brexit voters be happy if we simply ended up in EFTA/EEA without further say?

A further referendum on the outcome could separate Brexit from the General Election so we could leave the GE to vote for the economy/NHS etc and the waters wouldn't be muddied by Brexit.
 

Aldaniti

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I didn't vote Labour during the 'New Labour' years when that well-known snake oil salesman - Tony Blair - was its leader. But that's democracy and I accepted the result.

Come the next General Election I fully intend to change tactics; if the party I vote for are not elected I shall first stamp my feet and have a paddy, I shall then open social media accounts and boo and wail at whoever will listen to me. Sadly my name isn't Geldof or Rowling, so I accept that this might take some time before I gain a wider audience. In the meantime, I shall convince myself that everyone else secretly agrees with me and the result is invalid. I will then get the Liberal Democrats onboard. If I come across anyone who admits to voting for the winning party I shall call them names; thick, uneducated, northern, unemployed - that sort of thing. The Liberal Democrats will turn a blind eye to all of this. I will then sign up experts who'll agree with me - or say they'll agree with me for a consideration. I can't offer knighthoods, peerages or lucrative contracts, but I've still got some Costa Coffee latte vouchers left, oh, and some free Virgin wi-fi vouchers - useless I know, but it's the thought that counts.... And because I juuuuust know that I am right - and everyone else is wrong (the aforementioned experts told me so) - I shall then go to the High Court for a judicial review, stamp my feet a little more, and thank him upstairs that we still live in a democracy....

As that nice Mr Branson says... have an awesome weekend folks! :D
 
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EM2

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I shall then go to the High Court for a judicial review, stamp my feet a little more, and thank him upstairs that we still live in a democracy....

As that nice Mr Branson says... have an awesome weekend folks! :D
You do realise that the judicial review has nothing to do with the legality of the referendum, nor the result of it, but simply how that result should be implemented?
 

meridian2

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The referendum result was not legally binding, so beyond holding a vote in Parliament, I'm not sure what Ms May was entirely expecting, and any expectation that it wouldn't be challenged was seemingly naive at best.
I have to say, as a staunch Leave supporter and voter, I am concerned that this , at the moment, seems to be Ms May vs the World. I want a Brexit that has been voted for legally and in Parliament, not one fudged by flying solo.
 
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