EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Hornet]

Nice to see Europe looking after the poorer Member States.

http://www.euronews.com/2016/10/05/richest-eu-countries-get-most-investment-fund-money

...The investment fund set up under European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker is designed to to boost the region’s economy.

But nearly all of the money spent so far has gone to the 15 richest countries in the European Union, leaving the other 13 poorer ones out in the cold according to a report by the European Investment Bank, which has not been officially released but which was seen by the Reuters news agency....

 

[TheKnightWho]

Nice to see Europe looking after the poorer Member States.

http://www.euronews.com/2016/10/05/richest-eu-countries-get-most-investment-fund-money

What's the investment per capita?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

One could argue that because the trade deficit causes problems particularly when the pound is weak, it is automatically a bad thing because it restricts the ability of the country to make democratic political decisions about how it's economy is managed.

With regard to internal shocks, yes that assumes more of an imperative for the state to intervene to mitigate such shocks (although I would have been inclined towards that anyway).

But surely the point about economic shocks is, external ones are generally more difficult for Governments to intervene against.

We're restricted anyway. The world goes on around us and we are dependent on it regardless of how self-sufficient we might claim to be. We're not more independent just because we ignore the world when things are going well, because like I said when they don't we'd have to go running to them for help.

That's the thing about democracy - it's fuzzy and complicated. This rhetoric about "taking back control" is effectively meaningless. The world will carry on without us, and will continue to heavily influence us.

 

[RichmondCommu]

The £ has hit rock bottom at $1.27. This is beginning to get really worrying.

I have to say that the thing that surprised me the most is that a lot of right-wing, pro-Brexit people seem to have got the impression from the Sun, Daily Mail and Express that the exchange rate recovered after its initial fall post-Brexit, which is not even remotely close to true... There were a couple of rises of 1¢ or so as it stabilised which were followed by equal falls, yet the right-wing press trumpeted this as some kind of victory for the market. Total propaganda to cover their own a*ses.

Anyone still going to argue it's patronising to say people aren't influenced by the papers when the data is right there for them to see that there was no recovery whatsoever?

In all fairness the right-wing press have made a big thing out of the fact that the FTSE 100 is performing so well but have kept quiet about the fall in the value of Sterling, at least from what I have seen. Of course the FTSE 100 is performing so well as a direct result of the hammering that Sterling has taken; investors are looking for something else to invest in and the low exchange rate is encouraging foreign investors.

 

[miami]

Of course oil is bought in dollars and sooner than later it will hit the pumps and the airline industry. Any rises may be hidden by the current cost of crude being so low ($49/barrel - was $28 in January) but if that "recovers" to 2014 levels of $100, then someone's gonna take a huge hit. Er, us, drivers, tourists, shoppers and so on.

So in January with a relatively strong pound of $1.47 it was £19/barrel. Now with a relatively weak pound of $1.27 it's £38/barrel. The pound's strength doesn't really impact the cost of oil as much as other factors.

 

[Howardh]

In all fairness the right-wing press have made a big thing out of the fact that the FTSE 100 is performing so well but have kept quiet about the fall in the value of Sterling, at least from what I have seen. Of course the FTSE 100 is performing so well as a direct result of the hammering that Sterling has taken; investors are looking for something else to invest in and the low exchange rate is encouraging foreign investors.

Don't follow the markets much (only currency - usually how many pints to the £) so how is gold doing? Usually in worrying times don't people buy gold - and if so does that make the price higher or lower??

 

[Groningen]

So Steven Woolfe is in a french hospital, because he received punishment and collapsed from another UKIP member in the European Parlement.

 

[Howardh]

So Steven Woolfe is in a french hospital, because he received punishment and collapsed from another UKIP member in the European Parlement.

Not knowing whether he's innocent or guilty; he will be receiving excellent treatment no doubt (and possibly administered by migrants who, one day, might not be allowed into the uK to work) - which will need paying for. Now; his own medical insurance? Provided by the EU (meaning us)? Or will he use his EHIC card which may well be taken away after Brexit? Just a thought.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Or will he use his EHIC card which may well be taken away after Brexit? Just a thought.

The validity of an EHIC card cannot be called into question at this point of time whilst this country still remains a member of the EC.

 

[EM2]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37637954

Popular products including Marmite and Pot Noodles have been disappearing from Tesco shelves amid a dispute between the supermarket and supplier Unilever.
The row developed when Unilever, which faces higher costs after the fall in value of the pound, attempted to pass them on in higher wholesale prices.
Tesco said only: "We are currently experiencing availability issues on a number of Unilever products."
"We hope to have this issue resolved soon," the company added.
However, it did not indicate when that might be.
Sterling has dropped by 16% against the euro since the UK's Brexit vote.
Unilever is the UK's biggest food and grocery manufacturer with many famous brand names.
Among those currently absent from Tesco's website are Marmite spread, Surf washing powder, Comfort fabric conditioner, Hellmann's mayonnaise, Pot Noodles and Ben & Jerry's ice cream.
Unilever has declined to comment.
But the former boss of Sainsbury's, Justin King, has given an indication of the problem, saying that shoppers should expect higher prices because supermarkets will not be able to absorb the extra cost of imported goods .
According to media reports of a conference speech by Mr King, he said: "Retailers' margins are already squeezed. So there is no room to absorb input price pressures and costs will need to be passed on.
"But no one wants to be the first to break cover. No business wants to be the first to blame Brexit for a rise in prices. But once someone does, there will be a flood of companies, because they will all be suffering."

 

[AlterEgo]

"Take back control" looks stupider by the day. Heh.

 

[J-2739]

"Take back control" looks stupider by the day. Heh.

I wouldn't even include control in that. It's a bit of a mess right now.

 

[RichmondCommu]

"Take back control" looks stupider by the day. Heh.

Yep. Sterling is falling like a stone and the Cabinet is divided as to what to do next. Essentially we're in a mess.

 

[TheKnightWho]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37637954

Cue lots of Brexiters saying we don't need those brands anyway. Ostriches and sand spring to mind.

 

[tony_mac]

Of course the FTSE 100 is performing so well as a direct result of the hammering that Sterling has taken; investors are looking for something else to invest in and the low exchange rate is encouraging foreign investors.

There's an even more simple force at work.

The FTSE 100 are international companies that make most of their profits in other currencies (estimates are that around 75% of turnover is overseas).
Hence, as those currencies become more valuable to us, the share price, in pounds, goes up just as a result of the exchange rate.

 

[miami]

The FTSE100 in June was 6500. It's now 7000. If you'd spent $100 on shares then you'd have got £68 worth. Sell them now and you'd have £74, which would buy you $88, so would have lost 10% of your investment.

 

[TheKnightWho]

The FTSE100 in June was 6500. It's now 7000. If you'd spent $100 on shares then you'd have got £68 worth. Sell them now and you'd have £74, which would buy you $88, so would have lost 10% of your investment.

Which means that, in USD, the FTSE100 has fallen by 10%. Hardly promising.

 

[tony_mac]

Which means that, in USD, the FTSE100 has fallen by 10%. Hardly promising.

USD only accounts for about 25% of the overseas revenue, so I don't think that's a particularly fair benchmark - you would really need to compare against a basket of different currencies, which I expect wouldn't be quite so bad (I can't be bothered working it out!).

 

[TheKnightWho]

USD only accounts for about 25% of the overseas revenue, so I don't think that's a particularly fair benchmark - you would really need to compare against a basket of different currencies, which I expect wouldn't be quite so bad (I can't be bothered working it out!).

But the pound has performed even worse against the Euro.

 

[miami]

In IMF special drawing rights (a basket of currencies including the pound) the FTSE100 has dropped about 5% from XDR100 to XDR95.

€140 of shares is now worth €120, down about 15%. In Indian Rupees it's down about 13%. In Yen it's about 15%, your Y160 investment in June is now £108 or Y135.

If you had £100 in cash in June and had bought £100 worth of FTSE shares you'd have about £108. If you had instead bought 433 Turkish Lira, you would now be able to sell them and get £115, and in that time Turkey has had a military coup. If you'd bought South African Rand your £100 would be worth £130.

The FTSE100 gains have been wiped out by the pound falling for everyone other than people who had money in pounds, and they would have been far better buying currency.

This all seems to have passed the express by though





I'm not sure when the pound "bounced back"

Last 24 hours




Since the tory party conference




Since the referendum

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

In IMF special drawing rights (a basket of currencies including the pound) the FTSE100 has dropped about 5% from XDR100 to XDR95.

€140 of shares is now worth €120, down about 15%. In Indian Rupees it's down about 13%. In Yen it's about 15%, your Y160 investment in June is now £108 or Y135.

If you had £100 in cash in June and had bought £100 worth of FTSE shares you'd have about £108. If you had instead bought 433 Turkish Lira, you would now be able to sell them and get £115, and in that time Turkey has had a military coup. If you'd bought South African Rand your £100 would be worth £130.

The FTSE100 gains have been wiped out by the pound falling for everyone other than people who had money in pounds, and they would have been far better buying currency.

This all seems to have passed the express by though

Is it really almost 49 years since Harold Wilson made his now famous "Pound in your pocket" speech on 19th November 1967.

A case of history repeating itself?

 

[TheKnightWho]

In IMF special drawing rights (a basket of currencies including the pound) the FTSE100 has dropped about 5% from XDR100 to XDR95.

€140 of shares is now worth €120, down about 15%. In Indian Rupees it's down about 13%. In Yen it's about 15%, your Y160 investment in June is now £108 or Y135.

If you had £100 in cash in June and had bought £100 worth of FTSE shares you'd have about £108. If you had instead bought 433 Turkish Lira, you would now be able to sell them and get £115, and in that time Turkey has had a military coup. If you'd bought South African Rand your £100 would be worth £130.

The FTSE100 gains have been wiped out by the pound falling for everyone other than people who had money in pounds, and they would have been far better buying currency.

This all seems to have passed the express by though

[Snipped]

They're just peddling outright lies at this stage. Not even pretending to have a semblance of truth in it.

 

[dgl]

The express recently seem to be ore akin to this from the simpsons:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWvevkE0kAI

 

[Tetchytyke]

USD only accounts for about 25% of the overseas revenue, so I don't think that's a particularly fair benchmark - you would really need to compare against a basket of different currencies, which I expect wouldn't be quite so bad (I can't be bothered working it out!).

However an increasing number of influential currencies are benchmarked to the US Dollar- the UAE Dirham is fixed to the rate of the US Dollar, for instance- so the outlook is very bad. The FTSE rising is good if you invest using UK Pounds, but most of the investment we have in the UK is from elsewhere in the world. One of our biggest investors is the Canadian teachers' pension fund. The UK Pound dropping like a stone will be knackering their returns. How long till they choose to divest?

 

[Groningen]

Is Boris Johnson still alive?! Have not heard him for weeks.

 

[Greenback]

Is Boris Johnson still alive?! Have not heard him for weeks.

Presumably he's now working too hard to make public appearances.

 

[Puffing Devil]

Is Boris Johnson still alive?! Have not heard him for weeks.

Last seen outside the Russian Embassy in London.....

 

[dosxuk]

Is Boris Johnson still alive?! Have not heard him for weeks.

He's been busy telling people today that the EU-doom-mongers will be proven wrong, price won't rise, the pound won't struggle, and the EU will give us a better trade deal than when we were in their little club.

I think this means he's located the MPs bar over the weekend.

 

[Howardh]

I bought 800 Euros early last month, at around 1.20 (give or take) for a holiday I had to abandon. I've moved them from my drawer into my little safe.

The rate you get for selling them back @ 1.20 would be around 1.35 - eg at Tesco's currency bureaux. By the middle of next month I could be one of the richest blokes in Britain at this rate

 

[furnessvale]

Cue lots of Brexiters saying we don't need those brands anyway. Ostriches and sand spring to mind.

I never realised that Eire used sterling.

 

[Groningen]

So in 4 months time the Pound has fallen 15 % in value. Tourist visiting the UK seem to be happy. If that means that the London Eye means 40 euro less to pay than it must be a pretty expensive thing. i shall not be for 1 person hopefully. Looking at the London Eye prices it must be almost a group of around 10 people.