EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Domh245]

The issue facing Brexit is that the trade deal won't be part of the Brexit deal. Whilst the article 50 negotiations only need a qualified majority, trade deals require unanimity, and certain Eastern European countries are already expressing their desire to make things difficult. look after their citizen's interests.

Fixed that for you!

 

[Tetchytyke]

Fixed that for you!

Touche

 

[AlterEgo]

People have had enough of experts. Heh.

Douglas Carswell’s latest argument with a scientist will tell you everything you need to know about Brexit

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...a-may-european-union-deal-nigel-a7318156.html

 

[Senex]

The issue facing Brexit is that the trade deal won't be part of the Brexit deal. Whilst the article 50 negotiations only need a qualified majority, trade deals require unanimity, and certain Eastern European countries are already expressing their desire to look after their citizens' interests [as amended by Domh245].

Why do the Brexiteers find it so hard to accept that if they feel they are entitled to put their country's interests first, it's only reasonable that others should reciprocate in kind? The doctrine of the indispensability of Britain does seem a very odd one.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Let us remember that we are still a part of the EC until final severance occurs and I feel that this will occur later rather than earlier, in order that all trading possibilities are fully investigated in this interim period.

 

[Howardh]

People have had enough of experts. Heh.

Douglas Carswell’s latest argument with a scientist will tell you everything you need to know about Brexit

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...a-may-european-union-deal-nigel-a7318156.html

You get spring tides when the sun and moon are adjacent, alligned or something. But we're leaving the moon and will be in control of our own tides. No doubt we will negotiate with the moon our tidal range, although the sticking point will be how much freshwater we will allow into the sea tide, as that will affect how high the tide reaches.

 

[Busaholic]

You get spring tides when the sun and moon are adjacent, alligned or something. But we're leaving the moon and will be in control of our own tides. No doubt we will negotiate with the moon our tidal range, although the sticking point will be how much freshwater we will allow into the sea tide, as that will affect how high the tide reaches.

Will the cow be in a better or worse position viz-a-viz jumping over the moon? I think we should be told.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

You get spring tides when the sun and moon are adjacent, alligned or something. But we're leaving the moon and will be in control of our own tides. No doubt we will negotiate with the moon our tidal range, although the sticking point will be how much freshwater we will allow into the sea tide, as that will affect how high the tide reaches.

Why does the tale of King Canute and the incoming waves suddenly spring to mind?

 

[DerekC]

Why does the tale of King Canute and the incoming waves suddenly spring to mind?

Knut was a Dane, so what did he expect. It's Britannia who rules the waves, not Denmark.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Knut was a Dane, so what did he expect. It's Britannia who rules the waves, not Denmark.

Is that the same Britannnia in Lancashire that is the home of the famous Coconut Dancers?

Mind you, Britain has a long reputation of having monarchs from overseas areas, the last two monarchical family lines being from the Netherlands and from Germany

 

[AM9]

Is that the same Britannnia in Lancashire that is the home of the famous Coconut Dancers?

Mind you, Britain has a long reputation of having monarchs from overseas areas, the last two monarchical family lines being from the Netherlands and from Germany

Well that's a fitting practice for a nation completely formed entirely from migrating races. The designation of a native 'Briton' is a concept where a qualifying date is chosen to suit the argument rather than some scientifically established fact.

 

[yorksrob]

In terms of how a future Brexit deal might look, it might be worth keeping an eye on the trade negotiations currently being undertaken between the EU and Switzerland.

Certainly the controls on movement of people have been watered down from what the Swiss wanted, but given we're starting from a point of no controls at all, perhaps the watered down Swiss controls might be enough for us. I believe there's a stipulation that companies would not be allowed to advertise for employees outside of Switzerland without advertising in Switzerland first (we had a very controversial case in this country a few years back when a company tried to do this).

The current sticking point in all of this seems to be on the EU insisting that trade disputes should be settled in the ECJ - something that the Swiss demos might not accept.

 

[Howardh]

In terms of how a future Brexit deal might look, it might be worth keeping an eye on the trade negotiations currently being undertaken between the EU and Switzerland.

Certainly the controls on movement of people have been watered down from what the Swiss wanted, but given we're starting from a point of no controls at all, perhaps the watered down Swiss controls might be enough for us. I believe there's a stipulation that companies would not be allowed to advertise for employees outside of Switzerland without advertising in Switzerland first (we had a very controversial case in this country a few years back when a company tried to do this).

The current sticking point in all of this seems to be on the EU insisting that trade disputes should be settled in the ECJ - something that the Swiss demos might not accept.

Of we had ultra-hard Brexit, but kept the common travel (and trade) area with the Republic, would the rest of the EU allow Ireland to have tariff-free trade and movement of workers between us?
Thinking that, for example, would France be happy that a fellow EU country had the privilege of being able to export to the UK tariff-free but they can't? Or Spain ask why a fellow EU country's citizens have the right of abode and to seek work in the UK, but their citizens don't?

 

[yorksrob]

Of we had ultra-hard Brexit, but kept the common travel (and trade) area with the Republic, would the rest of the EU allow Ireland to have tariff-free trade and movement of workers between us?
Thinking that, for example, would France be happy that a fellow EU country had the privilege of being able to export to the UK tariff-free but they can't? Or Spain ask why a fellow EU country's citizens have the right of abode and to seek work in the UK, but their citizens don't?

If we did go for a hard Brexit (which doesn't seem to be the sort of arrangement the Swiss are trying to negotiate), such a move would potentially create problems for the Irish Republic. However much there may be the urge in some quarters to make an example of the British electorate, would it be politically desirable for them to punish a committed member of the EU such as the Irish Republic ?

 

[Howardh]

If we did go for a hard Brexit (which doesn't seem to be the sort of arrangement the Swiss are trying to negotiate), such a move would potentially create problems for the Irish Republic. However much there may be the urge in some quarters to make an example of the British electorate, would it be politically desirable for them to punish a committed member of the EU such as the Irish Republic ?

If Ireland was, say, the size of Malta they could probably make an exception. There are oddities in/out of the EU like Gibraltar, Channel islands etc. But Ireland isn't small - and giving it special status may be a step too far for the rest of the EU.
Also goods of huge value could be sent to Ireland tariff-free and then exported to the UK from there with an Irish stamp on them. A logistical nightmare.
If WTO rules were imposed between IRE/UK, then wouldn't some kind of border force be necessary to ensure all taxes/tariffs were paid?
To be fair to Brexit - it would be a lot simpler if it wasn't for Ireland! Of course, should Scotland go independent and rejoin the EU, same difficulty.

 

[yorksrob]

Of we had ultra-hard Brexit, but kept the common travel (and trade) area with the Republic, would the rest of the EU allow Ireland to have tariff-free trade and movement of workers between us?
Thinking that, for example, would France be happy that a fellow EU country had the privilege of being able to export to the UK tariff-free but they can't? Or Spain ask why a fellow EU country's citizens have the right of abode and to seek work in the UK, but their citizens don't?

If Ireland was, say, the size of Malta they could probably make an exception. There are oddities in/out of the EU like Gibraltar, Channel islands etc. But Ireland isn't small - and giving it special status may be a step too far for the rest of the EU.
Also goods of huge value could be sent to Ireland tariff-free and then exported to the UK from there with an Irish stamp on them. A logistical nightmare.
If WTO rules were imposed between IRE/UK, then wouldn't some kind of border force be necessary to ensure all taxes/tariffs were paid?
To be fair to Brexit - it would be a lot simpler if it wasn't for Ireland! Of course, should Scotland go independent and rejoin the EU, same difficulty.

There might be some sort of a technical solution which might be able to track which goods in the Irish Republic originated there and which came from further afield in the UK or wider EU without imposing onerous border checks. I don't know what the exact solution is, except to say that the common travel area is a practical solution which has helped to salve the 900 year old English/Irish conflict. Finding a work-around to enable it to survive is in all our interests.

 

[TheKnightWho]

If we did go for a hard Brexit (which doesn't seem to be the sort of arrangement the Swiss are trying to negotiate), such a move would potentially create problems for the Irish Republic. However much there may be the urge in some quarters to make an example of the British electorate, would it be politically desirable for them to punish a committed member of the EU such as the Irish Republic ?

It's what our current Brexit minister is aiming for, even though Downing Street is opposed! It's a complete mess.

Just recently they shelved a report warning of the dangers of hard Brexit as being "too pro-EU". Completely delusional!

 

[yorksrob]

It's what our current Brexit minister is aiming for, even though Downing Street is opposed! It's a complete mess.

Just recently they shelved a report warning of the dangers of hard Brexit as being "too pro-EU". Completely delusional!

Yes, I read about that.

It'll be a compromise one way or another. And ultimately it will be up to Mrs May what sort of compromise we end up with, regardless of what the Brexit minister wants.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Yes, I read about that.

It'll be a compromise one way or another. And ultimately it will be up to Mrs May what sort of compromise we end up with, regardless of what the Brexit minister wants.

That is true, but it's a dangerous game that she's playing. Our negotiations are being led by arrogant hubris grounded in the belief that whatever happens they will need Britain, despite the fact that that simply isn't how international relations works. The EU isn't going to humiliate itself for the sake of a bit more money, when doing so could lead to its very disintegration.

It's also terrifying when we see arguments made by people with authority that the EU needs us more than we need them because more EU jobs are dependent on Britain than vice-versa, when if you look at the percentages involved 12% of Britain's jobs rely on the EU versus 2.4% of the EU's relying on Britain.

 

[yorksrob]

That is true, but it's a dangerous game that she's playing. Our negotiations are being led by arrogant hubris grounded in the belief that whatever happens they will need Britain, despite the fact that that simply isn't how international relations works. The EU isn't going to humiliate itself for the sake of a bit more money, when doing so could lead to its very disintegration.

It's also terrifying when we see arguments made by people with authority that the EU needs us more than we need them because more EU jobs are dependent on Britain than vice-versa, when if you look at the percentages involved 12% of Britain's jobs rely on the EU versus 2.4% of the EU's relying on Britain.

Well we hear a lot about how the EU was designed to promote peace, goodwill and whatnot, throughout the continent, rather than just being a trade block in the old style. If this is genuine, then they should be prepared to negotiate in the spirit of compromise (as, to be fair Juncker seems to be doing with Switzerland) for the benefit of their and our people. And let's face it, that will inevitably involve compromise on our part as well on issues such as free movement (and there is a lot of room for compromise between an open border and full border controls).

If on the other hand, they decide to be awkward "pour encourager Las autres" then it would suggest that the edifice bears more resemblance to the continental Empires it purports to have replaced.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Well we hear a lot about how the EU was designed to promote peace, goodwill and whatnot, throughout the continent, rather than just being a trade block in the old style. If this is genuine, then they should be prepared to negotiate in the spirit of compromise (as, to be fair Juncker seems to be doing with Switzerland) for the benefit of their and our people. And let's face it, that will inevitably involve compromise on our part as well on issues such as free movement (and there is a lot of room for compromise between an open border and full border controls).

If on the other hand, they decide to be awkward "pour encourager Las autres" then it would suggest that the edifice bears more resemblance to the continental Empires it purports to have replaced.

I agree, but you can't go in all guns blazing, act like a petulant child, and then expect them to play softball.

 

[Howardh]

The UK will bribe the EU with a couple of £b/yr in order to have some kind of border controls (not that they will work) and in return be able to trade pretty much as before. They aren't gonna spend years and years of negotiations messing up our, and the EU's economy, that would serve no purpose.
May can then turn round and say to Brexiters and say "you've got your immigration controls and we've saved money" and can turn to us Remainers and say "Well, we haven't really left now, have we?"
A true British compromise, two captains getting together to work out a declaration to give both sides an even chance of victory.

 

[yorksrob]

I agree, but you can't go in all guns blazing, act like a petulant child, and then expect them to play softball.

I agree absolutely, and both sides will turn up to negotiations with their wish list. So long as both sides (including us, obviously) are prepared to compromise when it gets down to it.
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I agree, but you can't go in all guns blazing, act like a petulant child, and then expect them to play softball.

The UK will bribe the EU with a couple of £b/yr in order to have some kind of border controls (not that they will work) and in return be able to trade pretty much as before. They aren't gonna spend years and years of negotiations messing up our, and the EU's economy, that would serve no purpose.
May can then turn round and say to Brexiters and say "you've got your immigration controls and we've saved money" and can turn to us Remainers and say "Well, we haven't really left now, have we?"
A true British compromise, two captains getting together to work out a declaration to give both sides an even chance of victory.

That may well be what it boils down to (although I'd hope we'd get some other things thrown in as well).

The benefit for both of us is that we should hopefully be able to avoid "ever closer union" whilst the EU can get on with it's deeper Eurozone without us trying to hold up everything at every turn.

An outcome that DeGaulle himself would surely be satisfied with.

 

[Howardh]

I agree absolutely, and both sides will turn up to negotiations with their wish list. So long as both sides (including us, obviously) are prepared to compromise when it gets down to it.
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That may well be what it boils down to (although I'd hope we'd get some other things thrown in as well).

The benefit for both of us is that we should hopefully be able to avoid "ever closer union" whilst the EU can get on with it's deeper Eurozone without us trying to hold up everything at every turn.

An outcome that DeGaulle himself would surely be satisfied with.

It would certainly keep Humphrey and Jim Hacker still talking to each other as the credits roll

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The fact that we are in a geographical Eurozone area but did not join the Euro rather than giving up Sterling is one matter that we do not have to negotiate ourselves out of.

 

[Howardh]

The fact that we are in a geographical Eurozone area but did not join the Euro rather than giving up Sterling is one matter that we do not have to negotiate ourselves out of.

Technically, even outside the EU we can still join Schengen and adopt the Euro? Just love to see Farage's face......

 

[yorksrob]

It would certainly keep Humphrey and Jim Hacker still talking to each other as the credits roll

Indeed. And we'll doubtless still be fretting about our relationship with Europe twenty years from now

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Technically, even outside the EU we can still join Schengen and adopt the Euro? Just love to see Farage's face......

Can you see any reason why Britain should adopt the Euro as a currency when we are soon to leave the EC when we never joined it when we were a member state of the EC.

 

[miami]

Can you see any reason why Britain should adopt the Euro as a currency when we are soon to leave the EC when we never joined it when we were a member state of the EC.

To annoy the brexiteers?

 

[NSEFAN]

Well we hear a lot about how the EU was designed to promote peace, goodwill and whatnot, throughout the continent, rather than just being a trade block in the old style.

Since wars are largely about resources, a good way to create peace is to establish a mutual economic dependence. Trade is therefore a very important part in maintaining peace, so it's in everyones' interests to maintain good relations with our neighbours.