Penrith to Keswick

[steevp]

Thank you for an interesting, informative, fair report Bald Rick - I too would love to see the line reinstated, but can see that there are other (better)
ways of serving the needs of people

 

[QueensCurve]

Whilst the county council shows no enthusiasm for the reopening, a number of district councils and the national park authority have shown support for the reopening including blocking development plans that

I believe the development at Flusco was permitted by Eden District Council and was the first to block the route of the railway.
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The problem with re-openings in England and Wales is there's often not the capacity to make full (or indeed much) use of re-opened lines. The Penrith to Keswick proposal for example could really use some of the precious capacity on the WCML to make proper sense, otherwise it becomes a slightly pointless rural backwater service with a Class 153 merrily pottering about at 30mph and being of interest mainly to Michael Portillo types.

The point (with all due respect for Mr Portillo) is a good one.

In the case of Keswick to Penrith the signalling headways from Penrith to Carlisle are, correct if I am wrong, no more than about 2.5 miles. At the moment the route has 3 passenger trains per hour.

Is it inconceivable that a path could be found once an hour for a 100mph capable DMU to run through to Carlisle under the wires?
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I checked a couple of the underbridges In Keswick. The steel superstructure has had it - hardly surprising given half a century of no maintenance. The masonry supports need some work but could probably be reused. They would need detailed examination of course. This indicates that the line is in the state you would expect, and will need some major work to rebuild.

Sadly some of the bridges suffered severe damage in "Storm Desmond".

 

[edwin_m]

In the case of Keswick to Penrith the signalling headways from Penrith to Carlisle are, correct if I am wrong, no more than about 2.5 miles. At the moment the route has 3 passenger trains per hour.

The WCML capacity problem is not to do with number of trains, but with the mix of fast passenger and slower freight trains. The freight needs to get as far as it can before getting into a loop, and then (especially if diesel hauled and on an uphill section) takes ages to get up to speed again.

This does actually mean that there might be "windows" of time for an extra train to sneak out onto part of the route in the gaps that open up between longer-distance trains, but it would be very difficult to timetable in practice.

 

[QueensCurve]

The WCML capacity problem is not to do with number of trains, but with the mix of fast passenger and slower freight trains. The freight needs to get as far as it can before getting into a loop, and then (especially if diesel hauled and on an uphill section) takes ages to get up to speed again.

This does actually mean that there might be "windows" of time for an extra train to sneak out onto part of the route in the gaps that open up between longer-distance trains, but it would be very difficult to timetable in practice.

I suspected that would be the answer.

Perhaps a system similar to Oxenholme to Windermere could prevail were a DMU shuttled up and down the branch with a few workings through to Carlisle.

If the through trains to from Carlisle could be at suitable times for commuting, we might be nearer to meeting criteria for reopening.

 

[deltic08]

I suspected that would be the answer.

Perhaps a system similar to Oxenholme to Windermere could prevail were a DMU shuttled up and down the branch with a few workings through to Carlisle.

If the through trains to from Carlisle could be at suitable times for commuting, we might be nearer to meeting criteria for reopening.

I would be extremely satisfied with an hourly Keswick-Penrith shuttle with morning peak extension to Carlisle and evening peak from Carlisle. Bring it on.

I can't understand that £45m is spent at Market Harborough and £100m on adding track to the MML, which is in effect a reinstatement, yet reinstating routes to say Keswick and Ripon for similar cost is ignored.

 

[Bald Rick]

I would be extremely satisfied with an hourly Keswick-Penrith shuttle with morning peak extension to Carlisle and evening peak from Carlisle. Bring it on.

I can't understand that £45m is spent at Market Harborough and £100 on adding track to the MML, which is in effect a reinstatement, yet reinstating routes to say Keswick and Ripon for similar cost is ignored.

A) it's not ignored
B) it's not similar cost (or anything remotely like it)
C) the projects are all assessed on the same criteria; the MML works have a positive business case when compared to alternatives, Penrith - Keswick doesn't.

 

[deltic08]

A) it's not ignored
B) it's not similar cost (or anything remotely like it)
C) the projects are all assessed on the same criteria; the MML works have a positive business case when compared to alternatives, Penrith - Keswick doesn't.

£45m at MH to save 30 seconds. £55m to reinstate Harrogate-Ripon would save 20 minutes. No comparison.
You mean that redoubling to Corby has a higher BCR than 3.6?

 

[najaB]

£45m at MH to save 30 seconds.

Is that *really* the only output?

 

[Lankyline]

A)
C) the projects are all assessed on the same criteria; the MML works have a positive business case when compared to alternatives, Penrith - Keswick doesn't.

Taken from the CKP railways website
"Benefit to cost ratio of around of 1.32:1 as a base case, up to 2.59:1 with optimistic passenger numbers, and could rise to 3.29:1 under certain circumstances" (2007)

Not sure how you can say they don't have a positive business case, whilst I appreciate that these figures could be affected over time by various factors, such as new housing / business developments etc they at least give an indication, imo, that there is potential to reopen this line.

Obviously the other major factor, besides tourism, is how many passengers would use this service on regular basis ie commuters, I appreciate that there is currently a decent bus service operating and obviously because of a lack of any public alternative, they effectively have a monopoly.

As you say in a previous post, the line needs a USP, it obviously needs to be quicker than a bus, have decent timed connections to Penrith, competitive fares and have a bloody good PR and marketing plan, to name but a few things !

 

[najaB]

Benefit to cost ratio of around of 1.32:1 as a base case, up to 2.59:1 with optimistic passenger numbers, and could rise to 3.29:1 under certain circumstances" (2007)

The C may have increased significantly since 2007 due to the damage caused by Storm Desmond as noted above.

 

[ian959]

Taken from the CKP railways website
"Benefit to cost ratio of around of 1.32:1 as a base case, up to 2.59:1 with optimistic passenger numbers, and could rise to 3.29:1 under certain circumstances" (2007)

Not sure how you can say they don't have a positive business case, whilst I appreciate that these figures could be affected over time by various factors, such as new housing / business developments etc they at least give an indication, imo, that there is potential to reopen this line.

Obviously the other major factor, besides tourism, is how many passengers would use this service on regular basis ie commuters, I appreciate that there is currently a decent bus service operating and obviously because of a lack of any public alternative, they effectively have a monopoly.

As you say in a previous post, the line needs a USP, it obviously needs to be quicker than a bus, have decent timed connections to Penrith, competitive fares and have a bloody good PR and marketing plan, to name but a few things !

Having read the summary report, it seems that the BCR of over 1:1 is based upon a reasonably large government contribution in some way taking some of the construction costs out of their BCR calculation. The summary seems to suggest that if there was no contribution from government that the BCR falls to 0.8:1 or less...

Yes still positive but I think it clearly indicates that some fudging of figures, aka creative accounting, is going on.

 

[JohnB57]

The summary seems to suggest that if there was no contribution from government that the BCR falls to 0.8:1 or less...

Yes still positive but I think it clearly indicates that some fudging of figures, aka creative accounting, is going on.

Is that positive insofar as it's not very negative?

 

[deltic08]

Is that positive insofar as it's not very negative?

HS2 now estimated at £80billion with BCR down to 0.4 should be cancelled by comparison, but can't see that happening, so why shouldn't Penrith-Keswick costing £80m and minimum BCR of twice HS2 at 0.8 and Ripon-Harrogate costing £55m with BCR of 3.6 be reinstated?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I can't understand that £45m is spent at Market Harborough and £100m on adding track to the MML, which is in effect a reinstatement, yet reinstating routes to say Keswick and Ripon for similar cost is ignored.

Is it not the case that Market Harborough has a larger population than the combined populations of both Ripon and Keswick?

 

[najaB]

HS2 now estimated at £80billion...

By some. Last I heard the official figure was approximately £55B.

By the way, you didn't answer my question as to if a 30 second saving was the only output of the money being spent at Market Harborough?

 

[JohnB57]

HS2 now estimated at £80billion with BCR down to 0.4 should be cancelled by comparison, but can't see that happening, so why shouldn't Penrith-Keswick costing £80m and minimum BCR of twice HS2 at 0.8 and Ripon-Harrogate costing £55m with BCR of 3.6 be reinstated?

The point I was making is that anything below 1 is negative.

 

[furnessvale]

By some. Last I heard the official figure was approximately £55B.

By the way, you didn't answer my question as to if a 30 second saving was the only output of the money being spent at Market Harborough?

Also, how many trains are saving the 30 seconds each?

 

[6Gman]

HS2 now estimated at £80billion with BCR down to 0.4 should be cancelled by comparison, but can't see that happening, so why shouldn't Penrith-Keswick costing £80m and minimum BCR of twice HS2 at 0.8 and Ripon-Harrogate costing £55m with BCR of 3.6 be reinstated?

By whom?

 

[MidlandMainlie]

By whom?

The Tax payers Alliance and IEA neither of which I think are particularly reliable sources when it comes to railways.

 

[QueensCurve]

The Tax payers Alliance

Otherwise known as the charitable arm of the Conservative Party.

 

[deltic08]

Also, how many trains are saving the 30 seconds each?

Only the ones not stopping at MH.

How many trains between Ripon and Harrogate will reduce present journey times by 20 minutes? Only 3 trains would save more in time per day than all the trains not stopping at MH.

The fastest time between Ripon and Northallerton, 15 miles, by public transport on a Sunday is 104 minutes and there are only four services all day. The slowest takes 128 minutes and costs £28 return!!. Just one train taking 14minutes would save 90 minutes which is 180 trains on the MML not stopping at MH. That must have a quantifiable cost towards reinstatement of Harrogate-Northallerton.

Weekdays we have 5 services between Ripon and Northallerton but stops after the evening peak. It takes one hour but arrives in Northallerton 800 yards from the station and a good 10 minutes walk. How's that for integrated transport? Great if you have heavy luggage and it's raining.
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The point I was making is that anything below 1 is negative.

Yes, but my point is that HS2 is down to 0.4 but the Government is still going ahead with it. They should therefore consider other schemes that have a negative BCR greater than 0.4 including Penrith-Keswick which is twice that of HS2 and definitely schemes that have a positive BCR such as Ripon-Harrogate.

 

[najaB]

Only the ones not stopping at MH.

So about 55 services a day, give or take.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Although I accept that it might not make much difference to the BCR I presume that the new/re-aligned platforms at Market Harborough will be full length, less curved, higher and be provided with better cover. This will be a major benefit to passenger comfort and safety as well as reducing delays (whilst passengers walk through or are helped on and off trains as in the current unsatisfactory arrangements).

 

[najaB]

...I presume that the new/re-aligned platforms at Market Harborough will be full length, less curved, higher and be provided with better cover.

Yes to all of the above. Along with a new station building and, I believe, a new car park.

 

[6Gman]

Although I accept that it might not make much difference to the BCR I presume that the new/re-aligned platforms at Market Harborough will be full length, less curved, higher and be provided with better cover. This will be a major benefit to passenger comfort and safety as well as reducing delays (whilst passengers walk through or are helped on and off trains as in the current unsatisfactory arrangements).

Could there also be a safety benefit?

Curved platforms and straight carriages ...

 

[Bald Rick]

Yes to all of the above. Along with a new station building and, I believe, a new car park.

And lower costs for the electrification (seperate project)
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Only the ones not stopping at MH.

How many trains between Ripon and Harrogate will reduce present journey times by 20 minutes? Only 3 trains would save more in time per day than all the trains not stopping at MH.

Benefits for time saving are based on passengers, not trains. It is known how many passengers will benefit from the Market Harborough improvement. And it's quite a lot. It isn't known how many will benefit from Ripon - Harrogate (although you can take an educated guess).

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Let us all remember that the title of this thread covers the area of Penrith to Keswick which seems somewhat distant from the areas of both Market Harborough (which is rail connected) and Ripon (which is no longer rail connected)

 

[deltic08]

And lower costs for the electrification (seperate project)
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Benefits for time saving are based on passengers, not trains. It is known how many passengers will benefit from the Market Harborough improvement. And it's quite a lot. It isn't known how many will benefit from Ripon - Harrogate (although you can take an educated guess).

Yes, an educated guess by professional consultants. A demand forecast was done in 2004 with a door to door survey of Ripon residents, an origin and destination driver survey on the A61 between Ripon and Harrogate and an estimated 5% of 1.2million annual visitors to the five Greater Ripon attractions who would visit by rail. Total footfall at a reopened Ripon station in 2004 was estimated at 0.72m annually which was very similar to Skipton actual annual footfall in 2004/5.

Since 2004 there has been a big increase in house building in Ripon with a further 2000 houses in the planning process up to 2025. that will increase the population of Ripon by a third to 25,000. Population of Ripon when the line closed in 1967 was only 8,000. This has very recently pushed the BCR to between 3.5 and 4.5.

As there aren't employment opportunities in Ripon for this increase, most of the jobs will be in Harrogate, Leeds and Bradford as now where 65% of all out of Ripon commuters travel to. It has been estimated that a 30 minute interval service to Harrogate and Leeds (extension to Ripon of the two additional Leeds-Harrogate services per hour from December 2017) in approximately 35 minutes from Ripon, would increase footfall to 1.5m annually from Ripon by 2025.
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Let us all remember that the title of this thread covers the area of Penrith to Keswick which seems somewhat distant from the areas of both Market Harborough (which is rail connected) and Ripon (which is no longer rail connected)

Just making comparisons between Keswick-Penrith reinstatement costs and network improvements costing many £millions such as Market Harborough and Kettering-Corby in addition to electrification costs to these towns. Just good reasoned discussion.

 

[Lankyline]

The following was taken from a factsheet produced by the Lake District National Park Authority, it is a little out of date 10-12 years old, but still, imo, remains relevant

"In 1865 the Cockermouth, Keswick and Penrith Railway Company built a line to exploit the growing coal and steel industry, routing it through Keswick to capitalise on the tourist trade. In 1865 75,000 third class tickets were sold.
By 1882 this had risen to 225,000. However, due to losses of £50,000 per year in the 1950s, the whole line was closed completely in 1972, in spite of a storm of protest from local people to keep it open.
Today 85% of visitors come to the Lake District by car, causing problems of congestion and pollution. The Lake District Transport Strategy is a partnership project between some of the major stakeholders in the area. It develops strategies to tackle traffic and transport issues in the National Park.
One of their aims is to provide alternative modes of transport to the car. The only railway link into the National Park is the line from Oxenholme to Windermere. Therefore investigations into reopening the Penrith to Keswick line have been ongoing.
The Cumbria Tourist Board forecasts that an ‘all day every day’ rail service between Keswick and Penrith would attract up to 410,000 passengers each year, in addition to local demand for this service. CKP Railways plc is raising funds to continue to develop the proposal to reinstate the line"

In 2009 Cumbria county council produced a "sustainable transport framework" report for the Lakes, from which a number of areas were identified both as issues and aspirations, timescale within 5 years

Provision for cyclists (try getting those on a bus)
Development of a sustainable transport hub at Keswick
Encourage accommodation providers to offer pickup services from railway stations

Cumbria County Council's LTP 2011-2016 states a key priority for Eden District (which Penrith comes under) is for transport to support the role of Penrith as a service centre in both housing and employment growth.

But in the interests of balance the council is looking at initiatives to provide more efficient bus services, ticketing and quicker replacement of older buses to new low emission buses.

 

[Chris125]

Yes, but my point is that HS2 is down to 0.4 but the Government is still going ahead with it.

No it isn't, it's 1.7 for phase 1 and 2.3 for the full Y-network IIRC.