EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Senex]

Some remainers may be from the North of England so a more Scandi locale would be more appropriate?

Project Farce? I'm sure it's all a price worth paying.

Yes, for those of us from the Danelaw then let's think of Denmark and Norway too -- unfortunately the Swedes didn't tend to come in this direction. And of course the Normans had been Vikings only a century and a half before Hastings, which opens up even more possibilities.
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Project Farce continues:
UK loses top credit rating from S&P
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36644934

This is a downgrade by TWO notches, not just one.

Update: this is significant. All the pain of austerity we've been suffering for six years was intended to keep the UK's AAA credit rating. Two business days after the leave vote, it's gone, and (by the standards of credit markets) in spectacular fashion. Even in the worst of the Eurozone financial crisis, the ratings agencies waited until Fridays to make downgrades. S&P have decided this is so serious it cannot wait.

Not reallyu very surprising, is it? How far does the pound have to go down before all the benefits of keeping the £350 million (!!!) a week are lost?

 

[kermit]

"UK loses last 'AAA' rating and FTSE 350 surrenders £140bn in Brexit aftermath"

That's from the Telegraph, a Brexit supporting paper.

Well done everybody. Very well done.

 

[Rich McLean]

Looking at the fallout, and the state of the economy, this is what I think is the most likely outcome.

Borris to be elected leader of the Conservatives and become PM. At this point, Article 50 will be invoked, but will be swiftly followed by a snap General Election.

The reasons for this would be the pressures from MPs in order to satisfy the Scottish and NI that having membership to the EEA and maintaining Freedom of Movement as a trade off for a Free Trade Agreement for the sake of the economy. However, it will be argued that this is not what Out voters voted for, and that Controlling Immigration was one of the main reasons for coming out.

Another reason is that it comes to realisation that in order to keep free trade, freedom of movement must be allowed, and payments made to the EU, but without the rebate. This would cause huge divisions and make the current administration unattainable.

However, this will not halt Brexit talks in the meantime, but any decision on the EEA and Freedom of Movement will not be made until the next Government has been elected. Also Scotland will be refused a referendum until after a new Government has been elected.

So in the short run up to the next GE, we could see the Conservative party pretty much split into two, maybe with many deflecting to UKIP or forming a splinter party, or dare I say it, joining the Lim Dems or Labour and pushing for EEA (with Freedom of Movement) at all costs, while the maining conservatives (and UKIP) concentrate on fighting against Freedom of Movement at the expense of Free Trade.

We could see a very different election campaign from the past, and I imagine many will deflect and stand for the party which best represents their views.

I have said this before, and I will say it again. the EU will not allow the UK to a Free Trade deal without Freedom of Movement.

So the public will be voting for a new government, but with candidates either for or against being in the EEA with Freedom of Movement.

I think the outcome of that would be a narrow majority for being for EEA with Freedom of Movement, which makes a mockery of leaving the EU in the first place. I think this could result in a Hung Parliament on those terms

------------

One trade off which may allow the UK to some sort of Trade arrangement, is an agreement for EU citizens to be able to apply for jobs as normal in the UK and a right to reside as long as they are employed. However those entering the UK for holidays would require holiday Visa's. Basically, this would allow EU Citizens to by-pass the points system which everyone else is required to apply by, but not allow EU Citizens to just flash their passport and claim off the state.

However the above depends and requires all remaining 27 EU Member states to vote on it.

Personally I am seeing EEA and F of M, in a bid to try and satisfy the majority and businesses, but I predict will only makes things worse with public unrest.

 

[radamfi]

Switzerland voted to impose quotas on EU immigration thanks to a referendum a couple of years ago which was contrary to the single market rules. The EU retaliated by stopping Swiss students participating under the Erasmus+ exchange scheme. However, the EU has yet to restrict immigration from Switzerland to the EU, although Switzerland has another year yet to agree a deal with the EU to sort this out. So perhaps there is a small chance that the UK could impose immigration quotas while its citizens continue enjoy unrestricted freedom of movement?

 

[WestCoast]

Switzerland imposed quotas on EU immigration thanks to a referendum a couple of years ago which was contrary to the single market rules. The EU retaliated by stopping Swiss students participating under the Erasmus+ exchange scheme. However, the EU has yet to restrict immigration from Switzerland to the EU. So perhaps there is a small chance that the UK could impose immigration quotas while its citizens continue enjoy unrestricted freedom of movement?

True, but how many Swiss citizens live and work in the rest of the EU/EEA? I can't imagine it's anywhere near as significant as the 1.2 million Brits that live in other EU/EEA countries given the standard of living and earning potential in Switzerland.

 

[crehld]

Switzerland voted to impose quotas on EU immigration thanks to a referendum a couple of years ago which was contrary to the single market rules. The EU retaliated by stopping Swiss students participating under the Erasmus+ exchange scheme. However, the EU has yet to restrict immigration from Switzerland to the EU, although Switzerland has another year yet to agree a deal with the EU to sort this out. So perhaps there is a small chance that the UK could impose immigration quotas while its citizens continue enjoy unrestricted freedom of movement?

True, but how many Swiss citizens live and work in the rest of the EU/EEA? I can't imagine it's anywhere near as significant as the 1.2 million Brits that live in other EU/EEA countries given the standard of living and earning potential in Switzerland.

Worth pointing out I think that the Swiss federal government has yet to implement the result of this referendum.

 

[radamfi]

True, but how many Swiss citizens live and work in the rest of the EU/EEA? I can't imagine it's anywhere near as significant as the 1.2 million Brits that live in other EU/EEA countries given the standard of living and earning potential in Switzerland.

https://www.eda.admin.ch/countries/china/en/home/living-in/swiss-nationals-living-abroad.html

says 11% of Swiss nationals live outside the country. Some of those will be living just over the border in France, Germany or Italy and commuting in to save money on housing.

 

[muz379]

Personally I am seeing EEA and F of M, in a bid to try and satisfy the majority and businesses, but I predict will only makes things worse with public unrest.

As a retainer this is what I hope for .

However the first party to announce that as their position will then face a cry from UKIP who will point out that EEA membership does not end freedom of movement .

Depending on how many of the 17 million voted to end freedom of movement then depends on what happens next .

If the majority did vote to end freedom of movement and adopt UKIP's idea for a trading relationship with the rest of the world by reverting to WTO rules and they manage to make their will be known . Then I am sure that the remain voters on here know what the economic forecast is as a result of that . If the leave voters do not know what the forecast is it may be time to get back upto speed with the experts and consider what they are saying in light of events on the markets today . Events driven by uncertainty that leaving the single market may be one of the things that happens .

 

[miami]

Yes, for those of us from the Danelaw then let's think of Denmark and Norway too -- unfortunately the Swedes didn't tend to come in this direction. And of course the Normans had been Vikings only a century and a half before Hastings, which opens up even more possibilities.
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Not really very surprising, is it? How far does the pound have to go down before all the benefits of keeping the £350 million (!!!) a week are lost?

The total UK revenue this year is £716 billion, or £13,789 million per week

Today this is 13,053 million XDR (a special value based on a basket of international currencies)
Last week it was 14,254 million XDR per week

That's cost us 1,200 million XDR per week, or about 3.5 times the lie that the leave campaign said.

If you do it in Dollars, revenue was $20,132m per week, it's now $18,201m per week, a loss of $1931, or a loss of £1,462m per week, about 4 times the lie.

Now clearly it's not that simple, as expenditure has also reduced - much expenditure is on wages of government employees (doctors, firefighters, etc) in the UK, and those have therefore gone down. Imports however haven't.

Our balance of payments is about $190,000m per year in the wrong direction - we import $190b more than we export.

Last week this was £129b
Today it's £142b

That's an extra £13b a year, or £250m a week, that we are having to spend. Not quite down to lie level but well beyond reality level.

 

[Rich McLean]

True, but how many Swiss citizens live and work in the rest of the EU/EEA? I can't imagine it's anywhere near as significant as the 1.2 million Brits that live in other EU/EEA countries.

Quota's would have to work both ways in the case of the UK, but again, I hate the idea of a Quota system, as while it may allow x amount in, once that cap is reached, it would restrict a qualified Doctor or Nurse (or other skilled EU migrants that are in demand) access to live and work in the UK. A trade off would be a right for EU Citizens to work and reside in the UK, but not for EU citizens to reside in the UK without employment. Exceptions to this maybe citizens above the retirement age on a case by case basis. Again that can also work both ways, protecting the rights of retired Ex-Pats on the Continent.

This won't solve the EU migration issue, but would take pressure off the Welfare system and public services including the NHS. Something has to give somewhere.

I can't see a Capped quota system being agreed by the other 27, where 2/3rd's would be required to agree.

It will be near impossible to strike a trade deal where Quota's are imposed.

 

[anme]

And some good news for a change, Iceland have just scored.

 

[radamfi]

And some good news for a change, Iceland have just scored.

You just beat me to it!

 

[Rich McLean]

For the record, I detest the EU with a passion, but I am a realist and realised that as much as I hate the EU, remain was the only real option at the ballot box. I imagine many feel the same way as me. Hate the EU, but its either in, or face financial ruin and another long lasting recession.

Reason was that agreeing a trade deal without freedom of movement would be a pipe dream, and that WTO rules would ruin us and make us less and less attractive to strike a trade deals with as the UK slips down the league table in terms of economy. EEA comes with all the rules which we have no say on (despite our one voice out of 28 in the EU often being out voted) as well as Freedom of Movement.

I don't want Freedom of Movement and would rather have a points based system, but what's more important. Financial ruin or unlimited migration from the EU?

That said, I can only hope that a deal can be struck eventually along the lines of what I have posted above (EU citizens rights to work)

 

[anme]

And even better news now! 2-1 to Iceland!
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A trade off would be a right for EU Citizens to work and reside in the UK, but not for EU citizens to reside in the UK without employment.

This would be a *very* bad situation, both for other EU citizens in the UK, and UK citizens elsewhere in the EU. Sure, it would be OK while you are in employment. Maybe you buy a house, make some friends. Start a family, send your children to school.

But then you lose your job. Do you have a short time to find another job? Do you have to leave immediately? Are you forced to sell your house in a distress sale, to the first offer that comes along? Are you sent back to a country you may have left decades ago?

These are not conditions to build a life. They are not remotely acceptable. We need full freedom of movement, with the opportunity to "get on our bikes" and build proper, better lives, as we have now.

 

[radamfi]

A trade off would be a right for EU Citizens to work and reside in the UK, but not for EU citizens to reside in the UK without employment. Exceptions to this maybe citizens above the retirement age on a case by case basis.

Why would you be against immigrants who don't work? Unless you are worried about people arriving without a firm job offer that might be tempted to work on the black market? What's wrong with people moving to the UK for early retirement? I intend to retire in the EU before I'm 50 at the latest.

 

[keithboddey]

I voted to leave for 3 reasons.

1.Restoring accountability to our parliment.

2.The position where 500 million fellow european citizens are considered as english as I am is ridiculous.

3. The following 2 tables :-

In 2015, United Kingdom incurred the highest trade deficits with the following countries:
Germany: -US$46.1 billion (country-specific trade surplus in 2015)
China: -$33.9 billion
Netherlands: -$20.3 billion
Norway: -$14.1 billion
Belgium: -$13.5 billion
Italy: -$11.2 billion
France: -$9.1 billion
Spain: -$8.2 billion
Canada: -$7.2 billion
Poland: -$6.9 billion

In 2015, United Kingdom incurred the highest trade surpluses with the following countries:
Switzerland: US$22.5 billion (country-specific trade deficit in 2015)
United States: $9.1 billion
United Arab Emirates: $8.8 billion
Hong Kong: $6.7 billion
Ireland: $6.4 billion
Saudi Arabia: $4.3 billion
Singapore: $4 billion
Australia: $2.6 billion
Azerbaijan: $865.2 million
Macedonia: $762.5 million

Mostly eu nations in table 1...non eu nations in table 2

 

[anme]

"UK loses last 'AAA' rating and FTSE 350 surrenders £140bn in Brexit aftermath"

That's from the Telegraph, a Brexit supporting paper.

Well done everybody. Very well done.

To put this in context, from a Reuters reporter:

"Britain's downgrade by S&P today was historic - the first time the ratings agency has ever cut a AAA sovereign rating by two notches."
https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/747507295332990977?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

 

[radamfi]

In 2015, United Kingdom incurred the highest trade surpluses with the following countries:

Switzerland: US$22.5 billion (country-specific trade deficit in 2015)
...
...
Mostly eu nations in table 1...non eu nations in table 2

But Switzerland, whilst outside the EU, is in the single market.

 

[anme]

In 2015, United Kingdom incurred the highest trade surpluses with the following countries:
Switzerland: US$22.5 billion (country-specific trade deficit in 2015)
United States: $9.1 billion
United Arab Emirates: $8.8 billion
Hong Kong: $6.7 billion
Ireland: $6.4 billion
Saudi Arabia: $4.3 billion
Singapore: $4 billion
Australia: $2.6 billion
Azerbaijan: $865.2 million
Macedonia: $762.5 million

Mostly eu nations in table 1...non eu nations in table 2

I'm not going to comment on the bizarre "leave" theory in this post. The financial markets are making their views very clear already. Still, however "unusual" the theory is, it is at least based on some actual (presumably) genuine numbers - the first time I've seen a "leave" supporter use numbers that are not simply made up. Let's remember their embarrassment on this forum with fabricated immigration claims yesterday.

Anyway, my point is that it says a lot about the state of British industry if our tenth largest trade surplus is with Macedonia (BTW, an EU candidate) - a country of two million people.

 

[Harbornite]

Good to see that some brexiters are capable of using factual data. Having said that, the data provided isn't a fantastic justification for brexit due to the fact that a range of economic problems have been triggered by the result of the referendum, and it cannot be denied that trade with the EU is rather important for British industry.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Good to see that some brexiters are capable of using factual data. Having said that, the data provided isn't a fantastic justification for brexit due to the fact that a range of economic problems have been triggered by the result of the referendum, and it cannot be denied that trade with the EU is rather important for British industry.

I'm really not sure what on earth the point is meant to be. Surely it just demonstrates that Britain is really reliant on the rest of the EU?

 

[Howardh]

The next election will clearly be an one-issue election. When was the last? I remember - just - Heath's is it the government or the miners? Think it was the miners anyway...3 day week, power cuts? Think Heath lost, 1974??

Would the "Winter of Discontent" (79) be an one-issue election?

 

[Harbornite]

I'm really not sure what on earth the point is meant to be. Surely it just demonstrates that Britain is really reliant on the rest of the EU?

It proves that jeopardizing trade with the EU is not a good thing, despite what the "sovereignty" brigade might say. It's OK though, we might be getting a trade deal with the mighty Ghana so it will be worth leaving after all. All's well that ends well, eh.

 

[Rich McLean]

Why would you be against immigrants who don't work? Unless you are worried about people arriving without a firm job offer that might be tempted to work on the black market? What's wrong with people moving to the UK for early retirement? I intend to retire in the EU before I'm 50 at the latest.

You just answered your own question. That is Freedom of Movement (i.e. no control) and control of movement is one of the reasons I don't like the EU. So nothing would change, apart from maybe access to the welfare system and access to free NHS treatment for example. It would however make the UK less attractive to those who wanted to move for the generous welfare system.

I believe you should be allowed to retire here if you meet certain criteria. So if you are 50, have a big fat pension and don't require state support, then you would be welcomed with open arms. What I am saying is you shouldn't be allowed to just rock up, work 16 hours a week on minimum wage, live in with 11 others in a 3 bed house and claim state benefits to send money home to Eastern Europe.

Maybe that's why I think Freedom of Movement maybe agreed while retaining a Trade deal, with exceptions to benefit payouts to EU Citizens and free healthcare (which opens up a new can of worms).

 

[Butts]

The next election will clearly be an one-issue election. When was the last? I remember - just - Heath's is it the government or the miners? Think it was the miners anyway...3 day week, power cuts? Think Heath lost, 1974??

Would the "Winter of Discontent" (79) be an one-issue election?

Two Elections in 1974 February and October.

First one was close but Jeremy Thorpe wouldn't prop Heath up so Wilson ran a minority regime securing an overall majority in October.

As for 1979 "Chicken Jim" bottled it the previous Autumn suffered the "Winter of Discontent" and was booted out in May 1979 - effectively by the SNP.

 

[GatwickDepress]

Realistically though, access to the NHS won't be denied - perhaps on paper, but no doctor or nurse is going to act as a gatekeeper on behalf of the government.

 

[anme]

Here's an interesting statistic:

"Three in five Britons (61%) say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to tighten controls on immigration. Although British adults would not be happy if this hits their own pockets; with two-thirds (68%) saying that they would not being happy to pay any of their own personal annual income to tighten the control Britain has over immigration and reduce the number of EU migrants entering the UK."

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/sun-eu-referendum-poll-june-2016/

 

[miami]

I saw from someone on facebook that they're fine with the £32 loss so far to their ISA, but they're really looking forward to house prices and interest rates crashing.

 

[Harbornite]

Here's an interesting statistic:

"Three in five Britons (61%) say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to tighten controls on immigration. Although British adults would not be happy if this hits their own pockets; with two-thirds (68%) saying that they would not being happy to pay any of their own personal annual income to tighten the control Britain has over immigration and reduce the number of EU migrants entering the UK."

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/sun-eu-referendum-poll-june-2016/

In summary, most of us want tighter controls on immigration, but other people have to foot the bill.

 

[Busaholic]

In absence of 'Private Eye' for another 9 days, my own Just Fancy That from today:-

A.M. Boris Johnson proclaims that sterling is stable

Later A.M. Sterling hits 31 year low against the dollar