EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[northwichcat]

Parliament can if they vote for a motion of no confidence in the government and stick with it for 14 days, or if 66% of parliament agrees. There's no guarantees of either of those.

If either all the Conservative or all the Labour MPs vote against an election then 66% can't be reached. I think those are really the only parties with something to lose - the Tories could lose their majority, while if Labour aren't ready for an election then calling one early could give the Tories 2 extra years in power.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Agreed, nor do I see how a remain vote would have the ability to improve the situation

Because it is the status quo

What this does is suddenly cause of whole load of instability. Not least because we have the NI voting to Remain whilst not being able to and thereby a number being able to point at that as a justification for unification that will naturally antagonise another community.

 

[northwichcat]

If Northern Ireland and the Republic were to join together it would, hopefully, solve some of the problems, although I can't see how. EU or no EU there will still be Catholics and Protestants and there will still be centuries old hatred between them, if you or anyone else could bring a lasting and truthful peace then they will be entitled to a pocketful of Nobel awards, if you can come up with the answer I'll personally put you forward for one most happily

One thing you've not said is many of the Protestants are of Scottish origin so would feel out-of-place in a unified Ireland outside the UK, as they identify themselves as British not Irish. Although, if Scotland was to break away from the UK then the Northern Irish Protestants may not feel at home in either the UK or Ireland.

Short of inventing a time machine and going back to prevent the Scots from invading Ireland (which might in turn change the Irish war of Independence) or cutting a section of Northern Ireland off the island of Ireland and moving it across to Scotland, I don't know what the solution is either.

 

[radamfi]

If either all the Conservative or all the Labour MPs vote against an election then 66% can't be reached. I think those are really the only parties with something to lose - the Tories could lose their majority, while if Labour aren't ready for an election then calling one early could give the Tories 2 extra years in power.

Would we be more likely to get EEA membership under Labour or the Tories, and does it depend on who is the PM?

 

[miami]

Agreed, nor do I see how a remain vote would have the ability to improve the situation

However I can see where a leave vote could destabilise the situation unless things turn out very very well. Absolute best case scenario - as we both agree the situation won't improve - is the same story as last month.

The same story as last month in the case of a remain vote would have been guarenteed.
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If either all the Conservative or all the Labour MPs vote against an election then 66% can't be reached. I think those are really the only parties with something to lose - the Tories could lose their majority, while if Labour aren't ready for an election then calling one early could give the Tories 2 extra years in power.

Both parties have to agree for a new election. With UKIP snapping at their heals that would be very unlikely, although given the petty politicing going on on both sides of the chamber nothing would surprise me. Both sides are wiling to gamble the country for personal gain.

The tory party could only guarantee an election earlier if it resolves to have a vote of no confidence in itself, and not rebel by backing itself, which would be hilarious.
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Would we be more likely to get EEA membership under Labour or the Tories, and does it depend on who is the PM?

If you want a way out, get a re-election, vote the lib dems in as a major player, and send Nick Clegg to Brussels.

Or perhaps baring in mind Nixon, the following statement would apply:

"Only Farage could go to Brussels"

 

[northwichcat]

Would we be more likely to get EEA membership under Labour or the Tories, and does it depend on who is the PM?

It'd partly depend if they got a majority or not. A Labour + Lib Dem Coalition would suit the 48% who voted Remain a lot more than a Conservative + UKIP Coalition whether it was Mrs May or Mr Johnson as PM.
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Gibraltar is in talks with Scotland about a plan to keep parts of the UK in the EU, BBC Newsnight has learned.
Fabian Picardo, the territory's chief minister, told the BBC he was speaking to Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, about various options.
One possibility under discussion is for Gibraltar and Scotland, which both voted to remain in the EU, to maintain the UK's membership of the bloc.
Northern Ireland could also potentially be included in the talks.
"I can imagine a situation where some parts of what is today the member state United Kingdom are stripped out and others remain," Mr Picardo told Newsnight.
"That means that we don't have to apply again for access, we simply remain with the access we have today, and those parts that leave are then given a different sort of access, which is negotiated but not necessarily under Article 50," he said, referring to a provision in the Lisbon Treaty that sets out how a member state can voluntarily leave the Union.
Past precedents
There is a precedent for such a proposal. Denmark joined what was then the EEC in 1973, the same year as the UK and Ireland.
Greenland gained autonomy from Denmark in 1979 and seceded from the EU in 1985, following a referendum three years earlier.
Nicola Sturgeon has previously said that a second referendum on independence for Scotland is "highly likely", following last Thursday's Leave victory.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36639770

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Both parties have to agree for a new election. With UKIP snapping at their heals that would be very unlikely, although given the petty politicing going on on both sides of the chamber nothing would surprise me. Both sides are wiling to gamble the country for personal gain.

Up to the incoming PM (Boris?) but given the uncertainty of the current self inflicted chaos, will they want to do that.

 

[radamfi]

But would a Corbyn or similar left-wing Labour leader pander to the northern working class Leave voters and block EEA membership?

 

[Howardh]

But would a Corbyn or similar left-wing Labour leader pander to the northern working class Leave voters and block EEA membership?

Why would they want to block EEA membership, reducing the chances of trade/jobs?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Why would they want to block EEA membership, reducing the chances of trade/jobs?

Because the political scapegoating and media campaigns of the last 20 years have made a lot of working class people despise the very thing that ensures stability and prosperity: and I say that precisely because of what is going on right now. It's a complete catch 22.

 

[northwichcat]

But would a Corbyn or similar left-wing Labour leader pander to the northern working class Leave voters and block EEA membership?

Don't forget Liverpool and Manchester (large Labour strongholds) voted Remain.

 

[radamfi]

Why would they want to block EEA membership, reducing the chances of trade/jobs?

I would hope that any party leader would see the benefits of being in the single market and therefore the EEA but if they pander to voters who voted Leave because of immigration then that could be a problem if people realise that the EEA means continued EU migration.

 

[Howardh]

I like the idea of The UK holding the EU card and simply allowing England and Wales to let go. Dunno if it's logistically feasable, but with SCO/NI/GIB in the EU and Eng/Wal in, say, EEA, there would be no border issues, so that elephant can be discarded.
S/NI/G could form a union of their own, and still be within the UK under Her Maj etc, but they would need a nice, convenient name. ScOrnAr?

 

[WelshBluebird]

It is easy to go a bit OTT with the whole Labour working class wanting to leave because of immigration story. The actual vote for remain among Labour supporters was barely lower than among SNP supporters and not a huge amount lower than Lib Dem voters. We are still talking of around 2/3's of Labour supporters voted remain. So I would probably argue if Labour tried to block us joining the EEA that would be a betrayal of the party's voters, not the other way around!

 

[Andyjs247]

It appears the PM / Boris / whoever is next can't invoke Article 50 without Parliament having first repealed the European Communities Act. MPs could decide not to do this. Equally the Lords could still block it if MPs did pass it. All might not be lost yet. Although I have to say Cameron seemed particularly stupid to have offered a referendum without any safeguards - like requiring 2/3 majority and/or agreement in each of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Like Sturgeon wanted. Still a big mess though.

 

[radamfi]

It is easy to go a bit OTT with the whole Labour working class wanting to leave because of immigration story. The actual vote for remain among Labour supporters was barely lower than among SNP supporters and not a huge amount lower than Lib Dem voters. We are still talking of around 2/3's of Labour supporters voted remain. So I would probably argue if Labour tried to block us joining the EEA that would be a betrayal of the party's voters, not the other way around!

I didn't realise that. So perhaps a Labour government would be lowest risk right now?

 

[Senex]

In other words London gets the goodies again.
Is the concept of a United Kingdom to be abandond for partisan distribution of Govt. money?

It already has been abandoned with the special provisions made for Scotland and to a lesser extent for Wales. But why should regions that voted to reject Europe and its way of doing things expect to get any preferential treatment when whatever money is available under the new order comes to be distributed? Surely they should be entirely happy just to make their case to Westminster and hope for the best, like everywhere else. After all, they have rejected being those areas designated for special EU support.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

If either all the Conservative or all the Labour MPs vote against an election then 66% can't be reached. I think those are really the only parties with something to lose - the Tories could lose their majority, while if Labour aren't ready for an election then calling one early could give the Tories 2 extra years in power.

I see no prospect of Labour not voting for an election. The Tories already have a majority so the worst outcome from their POV (a bigger majority) isn't that much worse. And the prospect of the Tories losing enough seats to not have a majority any more would be too tempting to resist. Plus - very important - an election now would be fought on current constituency boundaries, thereby postponing for at least 18 months (and possibly, forever) the Conservatives' gerrymandering of constituencies.

But more to the point, how on Earth would Labour MPs explain voting against an election and to keep the Tories in power to their supporters, members, and constituents. Many, perhaps most, supporters would view it as a betrayal of everything Labour stands for. Would you risk that if you were a Labour MP?

 

[JaJaWa]

I'm sure every party except UKIP will be planning on EEA membership. They might not want to make that clear though, otherwise UKIP could win some votes.

 

[ExRes]

Although I have to say Cameron seemed particularly stupid to have offered a referendum without any safeguards - like requiring 2/3 majority and/or agreement in each of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Like Sturgeon wanted. Still a big mess though.

That's probably because he is stupid, he thought he could get people off his back offering a referendum that nobody would take much notice of, "Trust me, I'm Dave and I love you all, just tick the remain box like good little children", what he forgot was that Angela hadn't promised us all a nice little job for later on and, as I've said before, he couldn't even get his renegotiations ratified by his mates in Brussels, you would have thought that he'd have smelled a rat at that stage

 

[Senex]

One thing you've not said is many of the Protestants are of Scottish origin so would feel out-of-place in a unified Ireland outside the UK, as they identify themselves as British not Irish. Although, if Scotland was to break away from the UK then the Northern Irish Protestants may not feel at home in either the UK or Ireland.

Short of inventing a time machine and going back to prevent the Scots from invading Ireland (which might in turn change the Irish war of Independence) or cutting a section of Northern Ireland off the island of Ireland and moving it across to Scotland, I don't know what the solution is either.

Re-settle the colonial population back into Scotland, perhaps?

The religious point is an important one, as the Protestant side in NI has always been very much more Presbyterian (i.e. the Scottish heritage) than Church of Ireland (i.e. effectively the CofE in Ireland), which has remained, although small, an all-Ireland body in its membership. In so far as the so-called "Troubles" (why not "civil war"?) were religion-based, it was all much more Presbyterian v. Catholic than Church of Ireland v. Catholic.
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Although I have to say Cameron seemed particularly stupid to have offered a referendum without any safeguards - like requiring 2/3 majority and/or agreement in each of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Like Sturgeon wanted. Still a big mess though.

Very stupid -- or supremely over-confident. Whichever it was, he chose a form of referendum that will inevitably leave bitterness for years to come in various groups that feel that things were done / are being done in just about the worst possible way.

 

[anme]

So leave supporters - how do you think Project Farce is going so far?

 

[miami]

Up to the incoming PM (Boris?) but given the uncertainty of the current self inflicted chaos, will they want to do that.

Will his first action be a vote of no confidence in himself and his government?

 

[anme]

Let's see what the pro-leave papers are saying about Brexit - will be good to see some positive thinking... http://infacts.org/brexit-press-changed-tune-straight-vote/

 

[Trog]

Re-settle the colonial population back into Scotland, perhaps?

The Scotti were originally an Irish tribe who moved into what is now Scotland in the dark ages. Later events being a version of getting your own back or reaping what you sow.

 

[Senex]

The Scotti were originally an Irish tribe who moved into what is now Scotland in the dark ages. Later events being a version of getting your own back or reaping what you sow.

Absolutely true - hence Scots Gaelic, of course. Good example of can we ever say who the "real" inhabitants of a particular bit of territory are. Maybe the English Remainers should now try and claim back the Lower Elbe area and Schleswig-Holstein ....

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Absolutely true - hence Scots Gaelic, of course. Good example of can we ever say who the "real" inhabitants of a particular bit of territory are. Maybe the English Remainers should now try and claim back the Lower Elbe area and Schleswig-Holstein ....

Some remainers may be from the North of England so a more Scandi locale would be more appropriate?

Project Farce? I'm sure it's all a price worth paying.

 

[miami]

I crunched some numbers on the 2015 results - looking to see how a swing from Labour to UKIP would make a difference. Even with a 10% move, I don't see much of a difference (in fact I think it's just 1 constituency that moves)

Perhaps Labour is hoping that there will be a swing from Tory to UKIP, leaving Labour with a majority, or at least a plurality. It's a dangerous game they're playing though.

 

[anme]

Project Farce continues:
UK loses top credit rating from S&P
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36644934

This is a downgrade by TWO notches, not just one.

Update: this is significant. All the pain of austerity we've been suffering for six years was intended to keep the UK's AAA credit rating. Two business days after the leave vote, it's gone, and (by the standards of credit markets) in spectacular fashion. Even in the worst of the Eurozone financial crisis, the ratings agencies waited until Fridays to make downgrades. S&P have decided this is so serious it cannot wait.

 

[phoenixcronin]

Don't worry Boris has obviously got a full plan for Brexit but wants to keep it top secret for some reason, almost as if they'll be an election and he thinks Labour will steal his ideas. :roll:

Reminded me of when someone asked Trump what his plan was for defeating ISIS, and he said that he didn't want to share it in case the other candidates tried to "steal it"