Suggestion: Traditional L&NWR IC services post HS2

[Bletchleyite]

EDIT: are we certain long distance express services wont still be a feature of WCML services post HS2? Wont the franchise holder try to complete on price with HS2?

I think they will - there may also be case for some Open Access, assuming we don't Brexit and ban it (it's required by the EU). On the other hand, I don't see a case for three levels of competition, so I would expect a setup more like GWR with a single franchisee for all classic services.

 

[A0]

Largely coming from north of Northampton. That traffic wouldn't need considering post-HS2 - the "cheap slow option" would be the ex-VT services on the regular WCML. It would be a nonsense to keep cramming people onto those local trains at non-financially-viable fares long-term once HS2 is online.

It might I suppose be worth routeing 1tph IC via Northampton? Not sure which one though.

And yes I have thought it through. It's based on the principle that the WCML is overloaded at present and thus tends to fall apart when someone breathes on it, so it needs the frequencies dropping a little on both fasts and slows, but capacity providing by getting all busy trains to 12-car and ceasing all 4-car operation (and by having some people use HS2 instead). 2tph that people would want to use (i.e. the faster ones) is roughly the off-peak service most of the stations have except the very busiest.

Not that much from north of Northampton, since virtually all services to / from Northampton now are Birmingham - and serve most intermediate stations which the VT expresses don't.

But either way, you're seriously suggesting Rugby - which has annual passenger usage of 2.04m in 2014/15 - should get 5 tph, whereas Northampton which has annual passenger usage of 2.86m in 2014/15 should get 2 tph.

You really haven't thought this through.
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There is loads of new development around Northampton as people are being pushed further north by house prices. Soon that wave will be past Northampton and approaching Rugby. I looked at Northampton but didn't like it although would have lived there on affordability grounds. There is also a good Northampton - MKC commuter market which also includes Wellingborough people driving into Northampton for the journey.

EDIT: are we certain long distance express services wont still be a feature of WCML services post HS2? Wont the franchise holder try to complete on price with HS2?

I don't often disagree with you - but on the comment about Wellingborough commuters driving into Northampton to commute to MK, I'm going to.

Nobody with a brain would even consider that - it'll take you at least 20 mins to drive from Wellingborough to Northampton and get parked at the station, that's being optimistic and assumes the A45 is empty. You then have a 20 min journey onto MK - add in connection times and you're looking at a journey of nearly an hour.

The direct road journey (via the A509) is only 20 miles - you'll easily do that in less than an hour - and parking in CMK is miles cheaper on a daily basis than Northampton station (even with MK Council's regular above inflation rip-off increases).

People going from Wellingborough to Coventry / Birmingham might do what you suggest, but to MK, unlikely.

Equally there are no shortage of people like me who live on the east side of Northampton who use Wellingborough if going into London - because you can drive to Wellingborough station in 10 mins and the journey to St P is 50 mins - both of which beats getting into Northampton.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Quite a few stations get a service in excess of that they justify as a result of being on a line that justifies a good service and that fits with the clockface timetable. The stop at Rugby on most services, for instance, would be for quality connections to Northampton from points north.

My old local station Aughton Park, on the Merseyrail Northern Line, is one of the best examples that spring to mind. It has only around 180,000 entries/exits per year, compared with over 2 million at adjacent Ormskirk. But it gets its service, clockface every 15 minutes from very early to very late, purely because it is operationally convenient to do so. Its usage, proximity to other stations and local population barely actually justifies any more than hourly, if indeed it is justified that it exists at all.

 

[A0]

Quite a few stations get a service in excess of that they justify as a result of being on a line that justifies a good service and that fits with the clockface timetable. The stop at Rugby on most services, for instance, would be for quality connections to Northampton from points north.

My old local station Aughton Park, on the Merseyrail Northern Line, is one of the best examples that spring to mind. It has only around 180,000 entries/exits per year, compared with over 2 million at adjacent Ormskirk. But it gets its service, clockface every 15 minutes from very early to very late, purely because it is operationally convenient to do so. Its usage, proximity to other stations and local population barely actually justifies any more than hourly, if indeed it is justified that it exists at all.

The connections are irrelevant. What matters to Northampton is having a decent service to London and a lesser extent Birmingham.

Your proposal doesn't offer that.

Northampton has a population of 200,000 (and rising), Rugby has 70,000, Nuneaton has 80,000 - yet you'd seriously offer both of those a better service than Northampton - frankly it's a good job you're just a crayonista on these boards and genuinely don't have the power or authority to do the actual timetabling.

 

[DarloRich]

I don't often disagree with you - but on the comment about Wellingborough commuters driving into Northampton to commute to MK, I'm going to.

Nobody with a brain would even consider that - it'll take you at least 20 mins to drive from Wellingborough to Northampton and get parked at the station, that's being optimistic and assumes the A45 is empty. You then have a 20 min journey onto MK - add in connection times and you're looking at a journey of nearly an hour.

The direct road journey (via the A509) is only 20 miles - you'll easily do that in less than an hour - and parking in CMK is miles cheaper on a daily basis than Northampton station (even with MK Council's regular above inflation rip-off increases).

People going from Wellingborough to Coventry / Birmingham might do what you suggest, but to MK, unlikely.

Equally there are no shortage of people like me who live on the east side of Northampton who use Wellingborough if going into London - because you can drive to Wellingborough station in 10 mins and the journey to St P is 50 mins - both of which beats getting into Northampton.

mad or not people make that choice although in fairness I should have said from the Wellingborough direction. For commuting solely to London Wellinborough is actually better than Northampton!

if only the Wellingborough - Northampton line was still open

 

[Bletchleyite]

The connections are irrelevant. What matters to Northampton is having a decent service to London and a lesser extent Birmingham.

It doesn't matter what matters to Northampton on its own. It matters what happens to the railway as a whole. And you seem to be missing the point that additional Rugby stops are all about connectivity - to Long Buckby and Northampton - and not just serving the town alone.

 

[A0]

It doesn't matter what matters to Northampton on its own. It matters what happens to the railway as a whole. And you seem to be missing the point that additional Rugby stops are all about connectivity - to Long Buckby and Northampton - and not just serving the town alone.

Yes - absolutely. So serving relatively insignificant places such as Rugby, Nuneaton, Lichfield should very much be a secondary consideration against the demands of Liverpool or Manchester. Or for that matter significant commuter flows such as Northampton.

Dropping Northampton to 2tph to London - with potentially 2tph to Birmingham is absolute madness. It would be a 33% reduction in service with absolutely no benefit. Whilst Rugby would be sitting there getting 5 fast tph to all sorts of destinations. And arguing 'but Northampton would get the connections at Rugby / MK' really doesn't cut it.

The prime traffic flow from Northampton is to London - fact.
Thereby reducing the services to / from London by 33% is madness.
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mad or not people make that choice although in fairness I should have said from the Wellingborough direction. For commuting solely to London Wellinborough is actually better than Northampton!

if only the Wellingborough - Northampton line was still open

I'm not sure many people make the choice you reckon - as stated, it costs FAR more to park at Northampton station than it does at CMK. And if you're coming from Rushden / Irthlingboro' then frankly it's much easier to get off the A45 at Wellingboro and use the A509 than have to navigate the A45 via Northampton.

Don't start about the Wellingborough - Northampton line - you'll get Muddythefish back ranting on about that one - it's a dead duck and it won't be coming back any time this side of snow falling in Hades.

It genuinely wasn't that well used even when it was open.

 

[AndrewE]

So serving relatively insignificant places such as Rugby, Nuneaton, Lichfield should very much be a secondary consideration against the demands of Liverpool or Manchester.

Absolutely not (but whether Lichfield would justify a position as a node is debatable. Nobody else has proposed it, do you think that Rugeley should have the same status too?) The railway is a NETWORK and connections are crucial for comprehensive journey options. It's not just about London services (or Liverpool, Brum or Manchester ones for that matter) and anyway this discussion is about how we make best use of the "old" WCML after the airline-on-wheels takes away the Inter-Capitals traffic.
Connectional nodes need identifying and building: journeys such as from Chester to Leicester and Salop or Stoke to Grange-over-Sands absolutely depend on them!

Strange that no-one will respond to my suggestion that we discuss proposals for a timetable that will actually serve the whole area served by old WCML and branches when HS2 opens, and get away from the damage done by "fast to London at any cost"...
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The prime traffic flow from Northampton is to London - fact.
.

Maybe as a consequence of the current timetable options?

 

[A0]

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Maybe as a consequence of the current timetable options?

More like the fact that after Milton Keynes, Northampton's the largest place on the WCML between London & Rugby - and indeed bigger than pretty much every place on the TV line as well.

Add in housing which is reasonably affordable and a journey time to London of circa 60 minutes, plus alot of new housing - and the reasons why there is alot of demand for rail services from Northampton is pretty clear.

 

[JonathanH]

More like the fact that after Milton Keynes, Northampton's the largest place on the WCML between London & Rugby - and indeed bigger than pretty much every place on the TV line as well.

Add in housing which is reasonably affordable and a journey time to London of circa 60 minutes, plus alot of new housing - and the reasons why there is alot of demand for rail services from Northampton is pretty clear.

Indeed should all the freight go via Weedon and the passenger trains via Northampton in a post-HS2 world?

 

[The Planner]

That is an option though it woud cause an interesting conundrum at Hanslope.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed should all the freight go via Weedon and the passenger trains via Northampton in a post-HS2 world?

That is an interesting point. You could I suppose route some "ICs" via Northampton - but would that muck up the Takt? What does it add, 20 minutes? Could it be upgraded to 125mph with bi-directional working at Long Buckby to allow overtakes?

 

[The Planner]

Not without wholesale resignalling and a fair bit of work at Northampton. Considering a LSI from Rugby to Northampton has never washed its face I doubt much will ever be done along there.

 

[backontrack]

What about Penrith and Oxenholme? I doubt that all the 'High-Speed' trains will stop there...

 

[AndrewE]

That is an option though it woud cause an interesting conundrum at Hanslope.

Let's have another flying junction there, then! I would think that the current lines in relation to the (physical) geography make the location ideal...

My Taktfahrplan reference was intended to encourage people to think about what train services would encourage maximum use (by which I mean allow maximum usability), this will then identify the key infrastructure upgrades (so not be just a wish list.)
Norton Bridge is a great step forward, but unfortunately only a one-off justified by its own business case, I suspect.
If there was a Takt for a whole (BR) Region (or the whole country) it would help - or would drive - the planning of a rolling programme of infrastructure upgrades in addition to electrification.
Actually, doing the latter without doing the former seems very short-sighted to me.

 

[The Planner]

Good luck with that, Hanslope will either stay as is or some of it would be rationalised to get higher speeds on the more intensively used crossovers.

 

[deltic]

HS2 published working assumptions for services on the network post Phase 2 are

26 per day Tring, Berkhamsted, Hemel Hempstead, Apsley, King's Langley, Watford Junction, Bushey, Harrow and Wealdstone, Wembley Central, London Euston
6 per day Tring, Berkhamsted, Hemel Hempstead, Apsley, King's Langley, Watford Junction, London Euston
32 per day Milton Keynes Central, Bletchley, Leighton Buzzard, Cheddington, Tring, Berkhamsted, Hemel Hempstead, Watford Junction, London Euston
16 per day Birmingham New Street, Birmingham International, Coventry, Rugby, Long Buckby, Northampton, Wolverton, Milton Keynes Central, Bletchley, Leighton Buzzard, Watford Junction, London Euston
16 per day Birmingham New Street, Birmingham International, Hampton-in-Arden, Berkswell, Tile Hill, Canley, Coventry, Rugby, Milton Keynes Central, London Euston
16 per day Birmingham New Street, Birmingham International, Coventry, Rugby, Milton Keynes Central, Watford Junction, London Euston
16 per day Wolverhampton, Coseley, Sandwell and Dudley, Smethwick Galton Bridge, Birmingham New Street, Marston Green, Birmingham International, Coventry, Long Buckby, Northampton, Wolverton, Milton Keynes Central, Bletchley, Leighton Buzzard, Watford Junction, London Euston
5 per day Rugby, Northampton, Milton Keynes Central, Watford Junction, London Euston
8 per day Crewe, Alsager, Kidsgrove, Stoke-on-Trent, Stone, Stafford, Rugeley Trent Valley, Lichfield Trent Valley, Tamworth, Polesworth, Atherstone, Nuneaton, Rugby, Northampton, Milton Keynes Central, Watford Junction, London Euston
16 per day Birmingham New Street, Marston Green, Birmingham International, Hampton-in- Arden, Berkswell, Tile Hill, Canley, Coventry
16 per day Birmingham New Street, Birmingham International, Hampton-in-Arden, Berkswell, Tile Hill, Canley, Coventry
16 per day Birmingham New Street, Adderley Park, Stechford, Lea Hall, Marston Green, Birmingham International
16 per day Birmingham New Street, Stechford, Lea Hall, Marston Green, Birmingham
19 per day Crewe, Lichfield Trent Valley, Tamworth, Nuneaton, Rugby, Milton Keynes Central, London Euston
16 per day Liverpool Lime Street, Liverpool South Parkway, Runcorn, Crewe, Stafford, Wolverhampton, Sandwell and Dudley, Birmingham New Street, Birmingham International, Coventry, Rugby, Milton Keynes Central, Watford Junction, London
3 per day (peak only) Manchester Piccadilly, Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke-on-Trent, Milton Keynes Central, London Euston
8 per day Glasgow Central, Motherwell, Carlisle, Penrith, Lancaster, Preston, Wigan North Western, Manchester Oxford Road, Manchester Piccadilly, Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke on Trent, Milton Keynes Central, London Euston
8 per day Edinburgh, Haymarket, Carlisle, Oxenholme, Preston, Wigan North Western, Manchester Oxford Road, Manchester Piccadilly, Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke on Trent, Milton Keynes Central, London Euston
16 per day Birmingham New Street, Smethwick Galton Bridge, Wolverhampton, Penkridge, Stafford, Crewe, Winsford, Hartford, Acton Bridge, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway, Liverpool Lime Street
16 per day Birmingham New Street, Wolverhampton, Stafford, Crewe, Winsford, Hartford, Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston

 

[The Planner]

That is for the Hybrid Bill, that is unlikely to be the case once it opens.

 

[thealexweb]

16 Scotland to London via Manchesters? Lovely.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It does look more than reasonable from the point of view of a user of MKC and Bletchley, though it doesn't consider the possibility of the Tring stoppers onto Crossrail.

 

[The Planner]

Crossrail to the West Coast isnt commited or funded.

 

[kevconnor]

Would there be any consideration for any kind of a modern day version of operation Rio, even from an open access operator?

 

[Class 170101]

Which is particularly daft and would slow down most long distance services out of Euston.

Look at the other lines radiating from London as an example:

Kings X - first stop for IC services is either Stevenage (25 miles) or Peterboro.

St P - first stop for IC services is one of the Luton stations or Bedford

Paddington - first stop is usually Reading (do some HSTs still stop at Slough?)

Liverpool St - Stratford (only 1 tph) then Chelmsford / Colchester

To put 3 stops into long distance services in the first 100 miles is mad. Over on the MML a number of the Sheffield services have Leicester as their first stop.

Some HSTs still stop at Slough.

on the MML I would argue that the fast Sheffield services should have one further stop added, that of Bedford particularly once East West is open, never mind connections for Luton Airport and intermediate stations south of Bedford.

In terms of stops within 100miles does this mean Norwich should be served as the only stop from London never mind all the other intermediate stops then?

Also that Old Oak should not be built for either HS2 or GW Intercity?

 

[adrock1976]

It's been an interesting discussion so far - I was intending to respond to some of the points made towards the end of last week, but got caught up with various tasks. Some summary points are below.

Up to post 15, the suggestion in the opening post by having 8 traditional Intercity tph departing at roughly 7-8 minute intervals is to give both Watford Junction and Milton Keynes Central a service roughly every 15 minutes, so as to evenly spread out the load. WFJ is an Intercity station, and also the gateway to Hertfordshire from the West Midlands, North West, and Scotland. MKC will provide an interchange with the East - West Link too. Furthermore, both WFJ and MKC will have better connections to destinations north of those.

Also, the present day former Network SouthEast limited stop services could slot in between the IC departures first call MKC and the IC departures first call WFJ, so as to get ahead sufficiently before Rugby.

Posts 16 - 30: I'm not familiar with the proposals for expansion of Northampton in regards to the New Town project. Perhaps as what Neil Williams mentioned earlier (or somebody in response) there could be a former Network SouthEast limited stop services every 30 minutes to EUS, calling MKC, Bletchley, and various stations. An additional 2tph could run to and from Birmingham NS with the former calling pattern in the days of NSE, which were Birmingham International, Coventry, Rugby, Long Buckby, Northampton, Wolverton, MKC, Bletchley, Leighton Buzzard, Berkhampstead, Hemel Hempstead, Watford Junction, and EUS (minus the Class 317s that operated that route in the late 1980s/early 1990s).


Posts 31 - 45: Picking up on AOwen's comments, Rugby, Nuneaton, Lichfield were designed for Intercity services when the TVR was electrified in the mid 1960s. Nuneaton TV station provides an interchange with Midland Railway services, as does Tamworth. Lichfield TV would provide an alternative interchange to the residents of not just Lichfield, but Sutton Coldfield too to a certain extent. Also, there have been aspirations to extend the Cross City Line services northwards of Lichfield TV to Burton upon Trent, and also aspirations to reopen the South Staffordshire Railway to Walsall too.

I shall refrain from commenting on DarloRich's posts, as I believe he is the expert on services along that section of the L&BR due to it being his local line. A response to backontrack's comment in Post 44 is that I always believed that Penrith and Oxenholme were on the Lancaster & Carlisle Railway, which is north of Preston the last time I looked on the map and travelled the route as of last Friday.


Post 53: Perhaps an idea for a future New Great Eastern HS Railway?