Tfl future rolling stock

[387star]

With the announcement last week that upon franchise expiry southern, southeastern, great northern and south west trains will become transport for london services what stock is oikely to be used?

On the great northern I presume 700s. Will these be modified to incorporate a tfl colour introduction during their build? Likewise with south west trains 707s which I assume are a lock for tfl

Will 376s be refurbished to a 378 interior?

Will 377/6s remain be refurbished to a 378 style or be cascaded to replace southern 313s?

Probably noone knows the answers yet!

Tfl stock will surely consist of:

455 456 466 376 700 707 456 amongst others

interesting times

Wonder what the tocs make of it

 

[rebmcr]

probably noone knows the answers yet!

12345

 

[Philip Phlopp]

With the announcement last week that upon franchise expiry southern, southeastern, great northern and south west trains will become transport for london.

That was what was reported. It is not what was announced.

I'd suggest reading http://www.londonreconnections.com/2016/peace-on-our-line-devolving-londons-railways/

 

[swt_passenger]

I'd also suggest reading the existing thread in the general forum where this has been discussed already. It is unlikely that anyone has even thought about rolling stock at this very early stage of what is after all the media exaggeration still just a consultation.

I'd also suggest with respect that this thread is redundant.

 

[ScotGG]

It would make sense for Southeastern's Class 376 (5 car units) to move to SWT or Southern routes where 10 cars are the limit. Southeastern need 4 car units with SDO to allow them to operate 12-car trains, which makes best use of newly extended platforms.

I expect the Networkers will be around for a while yet operating some other services, and either have SDO installed or run as 10 car on diagrams that aren't 12 car stock with SDO. They need an internal upgrade.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

I'd also suggest with respect that this thread is redundant.

Not really. There's essentially two "sub-topics" the routes that TFL will be taking over and the rolling stock that TFL will either take over or buy new

 

[swt_passenger]

The prospectus is about TfL control. It doesn't in any way imply that TfL will change the entire existing rolling stock fleet on the basis of standardisation. GN will have brand new dedicated, 6 car Desiro City units to meet the specific requirements of the Moorgate route, so why would TfL even consider changing them?

Likewise SWT's brand new Desiro City fleet on their inner suburbans. What would be the point of replacing them with something secondhand from Southeastern as suggested above? What would it achieve?

There's no guarantee that TfL would insist on longitudinal seating either, just because it is de rigeur on the existing overground with its short trains.

 

[ScotGG]

The prospectus is about TfL control. It doesn't in any way imply that TfL will change the entire existing rolling stock fleet on the basis of standardisation. GN will have brand new dedicated, 6 car Desiro City units to meet the specific requirements of the Moorgate route, so why would TfL even consider changing them?

Likewise SWT's brand new Desiro City fleet on their inner suburbans. What would be the point of replacing them with something secondhand from Southeastern as suggested above? What would it achieve?

There's no guarantee that TfL would insist on longitudinal seating either, just because it is de rigeur on the existing overground with its short trains.

Yes the standardisation line is wrong and always has been.

But the point of removing 10 car trains from a newly created 12 car railway network (SE metro), with that stock then going to a railway where 10 is the limit (some Southern + SWT routes), and in return the 12 car railway gets stock to utilise it seems logical? The 376s are wasted on SE.

Otherwise you are missing out on very easy wins on capacity improvements in areas of rapid growth for 20+ years.

I wasn't suggesting replacing 707s with 376s. Why SWT didn't get those 376s instead of that new order though whilst SE get stock more suited to its network is a good question, and I started a topic on that. I never realised how close the fleet sizes were (36 class 376 and 30 class 707).

And if not SWT routes then Southern lines where 10 car is the limit, older stock is running, and 376s could increase capacity whilst SE get 12 car trains to replace which would increase capacity.

 

[ComUtoR]

And if not SWT routes then Southern lines where 10 car is the limit, older stock is running, and 376s could increase capacity whilst SE get 12 car trains to replace which would increase capacity.

Trains do not run round at full capacity all day. 12 cars are used in the peak.

Whilst we do have some 12 car services they are limited and run during the peak. 376's are perfect because we can run at 5/10 configuration pretty much all day so we have a decent capacity on most routes and have the flexibility of running into London on any platform rather than the restricted 12 car platforms.

What 12 car configuration are you suggesting ? (4/4/4) (5/5/2) (6/6)

 

[physics34]

you'd imagine southerns 455 will be gone in 2021 or shortly after dependant on when replacement stock is ordered, when the franchise expires.

not sure of the predicted life expectancy of SWTs 455s and 456s.

 

[ScotGG]

Trains do not run round at full capacity all day. 12 cars are used in the peak.

Whilst we do have some 12 car services they are limited and run during the peak. 376's are perfect because we can run at 5/10 configuration pretty much all day so we have a decent capacity on most routes and have the flexibility of running into London on any platform rather than the restricted 12 car platforms.

What 12 car configuration are you suggesting ? (4/4/4) (5/5/2) (6/6)

The number of 12 car services on metro in peaks is tiny. 1 across the whole evening heading out from London isn't it?

There isn't much halving of train length now on SE metro routes off-peak. But for those that do continue then perhaps a 6/6 new order would work, as 6 off-peak would cater for growth in coming years/decades.

But I don't know what configuration for 12 car works best for depots, but surely running maximum length trains for the available platforms in the peaks, along busy London commuter lines, makes sense. Demand is only going one way. I pass through Kidbrooke and Lewisham on 10 cars, see how busy they are and see all the building going on and then looking at 5-10 years time (quite probably a lot sooner) and its clear most 10 cars services will need to be 12. Can't wait until 2030 for Bakerloo. Keeping the 376's stops this. 2021 could well be the date they move off to Southern?



The issue with not being able to use some London platforms could be overcome by new trains with SDO?

 

[jopsuk]

Are SouthEastern's Networkers used as a common pool or is there a hard Metro/Mainline split in the fleet?

Obviously Southern currently have Networkers used for both Metro and services to the coast, with the resulting units being optimal for neither.

 

[ScotGG]

The 465/9 'Weald' units are used on mid + long distance. The rest of the 465/466 are on Metro except a few 466 on rural lines. None have SDO which like the 376s limits making best use of SE Metro's new 12-car capable network.

Ideally SE Metro wants an entire fleet that can run as 12 car with SDO to cope with growth for the next 20 years.

 

[ComUtoR]

Keeping the 376's stops this. 2021 could well be the date they move off to Southern?

The 376's provide off peak capacity. Running a 12 car all day is wasteful to say the least. If your only concern is the peak then changing an entire fleet is overkill.

The issue with not being able to use some London platforms could be overcome by new trains with SDO?

The infrastructure constraints are important. SDO would be a big upgrade to the fleet for very little gain. SDO also brings in more issues.

I like the way the 378's got an extra coach and there was a rumor that 376's would get the same but if it did then you have the same issues. 6 cars running about all day are ok but you do want to run 10's so your option is to go 6 or 12 just doesn't work.

I think that our 376's work very well but its the networker fleet that needs augmenting. Changes to how our fleet is distributed is happening and more networkers are being freed up to make more 12 car formations.

 

[swt_passenger]

...not sure of the predicted life expectancy of SWTs 455s and 456s.

The 455s at least have enough life with SWT to justify their re-tractioning. Previously believed to be at least 10 more years on completion of the work, taking them up to about 2025 or later. Which is possibly about when Crossrail 2 will introduce their eplacements...

 

[JamesRowden]

The 465/9 'Weald' units are used on mid + long distance. The rest of the 465/466 are on Metro except a few 466 on rural lines. None have SDO which like the 376s limits making best use of SE Metro's new 12-car capable network.

Ideally SE Metro wants an entire fleet that can run as 12 car with SDO to cope with growth for the next 20 years.

The Kent RUS from 6 or so years ago recommended that all peak Tonbridge Mainline services be 12-car by 2020. Networkers presently operate the peak Tunbridge Wells to Charing Cross services and cannot run as 12-car since the platforms at Tunbridge Wells cannot be extended that long and Networkers do not have SDO. Therefore replacing those Networkers with SDO stock would allow Networkers to be cascaded to London metro services.

Could the 376s be reconfigured into a combination of 4 and 6 car sets?

From what I've read, 2*(4-car)+2*(2-car) Networker formations cannot be used in SE London. Therefore extending Southeastern metro services to 12-car would lead many 2-car Networkers to become redundant. Perhaps some 4-car and 2-car Networkers could be reconfigured to 3-car and cascaded to Southern for use on local Coastway services to replace the 313s and potentially some 377s.

 

[D365]

I have a feeling that you're being too optimistic about reconfiguring EMUs. Remember what has happened with the 458/5s!?

 

[ComUtoR]

Therefore replacing those Networkers with SDO stock would allow Networkers to be cascaded to London metro services.

Already happening.

Therefore extending Southeastern metro services to 12-car would lead many 2-car Networkers to become redundant.

You make the current 8 car configurations 6 (4+2) and you free up more 4 car units.

 

[Feathers44]

This seems to be treated as a 'done deal' in this thread, yet all I read of is a consulation on thinking about considering maybe devolving routes to TfL control. We are surely a long, long way from picking stock and assigning it to routes.

 

[ScotGG]

The 376's provide off peak capacity. Running a 12 car all day is wasteful to say the least. If your only concern is the peak then changing an entire fleet is overkill.



The infrastructure constraints are important. SDO would be a big upgrade to the fleet for very little gain. SDO also brings in more issues.

I like the way the 378's got an extra coach and there was a rumor that 376's would get the same but if it did then you have the same issues. 6 cars running about all day are ok but you do want to run 10's so your option is to go 6 or 12 just doesn't work.

I think that our 376's work very well but its the networker fleet that needs augmenting. Changes to how our fleet is distributed is happening and more networkers are being freed up to make more 12 car formations.

I might be missing something here but what's radically different in having 12 car trains going to 6 off peak, than 10 car trains going 5 off-peak as now? You gain capacity both at peak times and off peak. It wouldn't be 12-car all day. The recent orders for GN are 6 cars. Something like that for SE at off-peak and doubled in the peak.

376 and 378's can't get another coach apparently so that option is out.

Not suggesting all trains go to that (though if possible that should be targeted) but having a far larger % at 12 car is needed. 376 are say a third of all peak services on metro right now? Even a third going to 12 car with something like 700s replacing them would greatly help.

A re-jigg of Networker diagrams wont produce many more 12 car diagrams, especially post 2018 when London Bridge rebuild is complete and tph through London Bridge go back to pre-2015 levels.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

This seems to be treated as a 'done deal' in this thread, yet all I read of is a consulation on thinking about considering maybe devolving routes to TfL control. We are surely a long, long way from picking stock and assigning it to routes.

Whoever is running SE Metro post 2018 will need to start planning for more 12 car services given passenger growth and housebuilding plans are huge. Most of the infrastructure is there but the trains aren't.

 

[swt_passenger]

This seems to be treated as a 'done deal' in this thread, yet all I read of is a consulation on thinking about considering maybe devolving routes to TfL control. We are surely a long, long way from picking stock and assigning it to routes.

I said the same early in the thread. There seems to be two types of poster, those who only read the Standard's article about 'LO takeover imminent', and took it as a done deal and those who also read the DfT's prospectus in detail, and quickly realised the Standard is well ahead of reality.

 

[ComUtoR]

376 and 378's can't get another coach apparently so that option is out.

I'm pretty sure that 378's were 4 cars but got extended to 5. Why can't a 376 be extended to a 6 car ?

A re-jigg of Networker diagrams wont produce many more 12 car diagrams, especially post 2018 when London Bridge rebuild is complete and tph through London Bridge go back to pre-2015 levels.

But it will produce extra 12 car sets and it is exactly what they are doing. We do need 12 car services but they tweak capacity by also introducing more trains per hour. I don't think that the number of 12 car services is as high a demand as believed.

Changing a whole fleet is no small task

The clever people with calculators and access to passengers numbers etc are well placed to make these decisions.

 

[Domh245]

I'm pretty sure that 378's were 4 cars but got extended to 5. Why can't a 376 be extended to a 6 car?

The first 378s were 3 cars! The limit of 5 is something to do with the TMS. Bombardier -star units can only be 5 cars (or 2 semi-permanently coupled units of 5 or less) so to go beyond 5 would necessitate going to 2x3 half-trains.

 

[D365]

I'm pretty sure that 378's were 4 cars but got extended to 5. Why can't a 376 be extended to a 6 car?

There's issues with software and tractive power distribution that prevent adding anything more than a fifth car. As has been discussed before.

 

[edwin_m]

All the Overground routes so far have been new services or have inherited stock that was pretty much life-expired, so it has been pretty obvious that new stock would be needed and sensible to procure it in batches rather than as a micro-fleet for each route.

If this "takeover" goes ahead as proposed then TfL will be operating routes where the existing stock has a significant life remaining. The logical thing to do would be to retain the existing stock - for example the 376s could be refurbished to be similar to the 378s.

Based on TfL's past behaviour it's quite likely they would want to buy it out from the owning ROSCO. If the ROSCO doesn't want to play ball or asks for silly money for buyout or leasing then TfL can always threaten to buy new trains instead. This would be quite a powerful incentive for something like a 376 which can only really earn money for its owner on London inner-suburban services, which would nearly all be run by TfL anyway.

 

[ComUtoR]

There's issues with software and tractive power distribution that prevent adding anything more than a fifth car. As has been discussed before.

The first 378s were 3 cars! The limit of 5 is something to do with the TMS. Bombardier -star units can only be 5 cars (or 2 semi-permanently coupled units of 5 or less) so to go beyond 5 would necessitate going to 2x3 half-trains.

Many thanks.

 

[swt_passenger]

Based on TfL's past behaviour it's quite likely they would want to buy it out from the owning ROSCO. I

TfL may have talked the talk about outright purchase, but still leases its existing 378s from a startup ROSCO in the usual way. (QW Rail Leasing.) They originally intended to buy the stock but their accountants quickly decided otherwise.

 

[AM9]

TfL may have talked the talk about outright purchase, but still leases its existing 378s from a startup ROSCO in the usual way. (QW Rail Leasing.) They originally intended to buy the stock but their accountants quickly decided otherwise.

But in 2007 or whenever, the 378s were a new purchase for which the RoSCo presumably gave a reasonable lease price. In the early days of the Overground project, it is likely that a cautious approach was preferred rather than having massive capital costs sitting on TfL's books.

 

[ScotGG]

I'm pretty sure that 378's were 4 cars but got extended to 5. Why can't a 376 be extended to a 6 car ?



But it will produce extra 12 car sets and it is exactly what they are doing. We do need 12 car services but they tweak capacity by also introducing more trains per hour. I don't think that the number of 12 car services is as high a demand as believed.

Changing a whole fleet is no small task

The clever people with calculators and access to passengers numbers etc are well placed to make these decisions.

The people with calculators have been lobbying ministers but the DfT aren't very proactive. Hence the hopes TfL will be more responsive.

Extra 12-cars are only in the short term as paths have been cut through London Bridge, so remaining trains are longer. They'll be more paths again after 2018 but no more than before 2015 work begun.

Demand is high and will rise sharply. Growth is 5%+ per year. Housing plans are huge at various areas of SE London and NW Kent. Kidbrooke alone (10k homes within a mile of the station) with cause severe strain on that entire line.

Across SE London the population is projected to grow faster than ever before and be 300k more people in 10 years. Those are huge numbers. No tube, no DLR extensions and Crossrail only scrapping a small part of the area. SE Metro going majority, or all, 12 car is the most feasible and cost effective way to meet that demand in the short to mid term.

On the subject of 376 and 378s, 5 is the max for electrostars apparently.

Ultimately, we have a network that is ready for many more 12 car services, with rapid growth and limited means to alleviate it elsewhere, but a great deal of stock that can't utilise the infrastructure but that could do a perfect job elsewhere where 10 is the limit, unlike SE Metro.

 

[jopsuk]

is the "The TMS can't handle 6 cars" a fundamental hard wired thing or a "software problem that could be sorted of money was thrown at it"? It may be the sort of thing that's not worth it for a penny-pinching SE with 36 units but may, if the platform length issues of the ELL can be overcome, be viable if TfL had 57 378s and 36 376 all wanting an extra carriage.