Northern Connect - Chester to Leeds

[exile]

Currently we Warringtonians benefit from a direct service to Leeds with a journey time of 83 mins, stopping at Birchwood, Oxford Rd, Piccadilly, Stalybridge, Huddersfield and Dewsbury.

I understand that in 2017 we will lose this service but it will be replaced by a Chester-Leeds service (via Bradford) - calling at Bank Quay rather than Central.

Does anyone have any information on the stopping pattern and/or the likely Warrington-Leeds journey time? Just wondering if it will turn out to be quicker to take a train to Manchester Piccadilly and change there.

 

[northwichcat]

This is actually being discussed in this thread: http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=125340

One 'Calder Vale' service currently does Victoria-Halifax-Dewsbury-Leeds and that is expected to continue after the recast. With Bradford being guaranteed a direct Airport and a direct Liverpool service we know it'll either be the Leeds-Chester or Leeds-Southport service which goes via Dewsbury.

 

[lejog]

Currently we Warringtonians benefit from a direct service to Leeds with a journey time of 83 mins, stopping at Birchwood, Oxford Rd, Piccadilly, Stalybridge, Huddersfield and Dewsbury.

I understand that in 2017 we will lose this service but it will be replaced by a Chester-Leeds service (via Bradford) - calling at Bank Quay rather than Central.

Does anyone have any information on the stopping pattern and/or the likely Warrington-Leeds journey time? Just wondering if it will turn out to be quicker to take a train to Manchester Piccadilly and change there.

The service will be a Northern Connect service running semi-fast between Victoria and Leeds. Current semi-fast services take around 82mins just between Manchester and Leeds, so you are likely to see a hefty increase in journey times. Line speed improvements and faster rolling stock should knock a few minutes off this, perhaps to around 75mins. It is possible that some of the Chester services are routed via Hebden Bridge and Dewsbury which could cut the journey time to around 65mins.

With 4 fast TPE services from Victoria to Leeds and assuming a max 15minute connection time, it is almost certain that you will get a faster journey to Leeds changing there, although it may be only a few minutes depending on the wait.

With only 2 fast TPE services (via Victoria) and 2 stopping TPE services from Piccadilly to Leeds, journey times changing at Piccadilly will depend greatly on connection times. If you have a 30min wait that option may be even slower than the Calder Valley service.

Not one of the winners, I'm afraid.

 

[hairyhandedfool]

I believe the ITT said the service had to stop at Warrington Bank Quay and Newton-le-Willows on it's way to Manchester, but I have heard nothing about the stopping pattern beyond that. With it being a "Connect" service, I can't envisage it stopping at Patricroft or Eccles.

 

[northwichcat]

I believe the ITT said the service had to stop at Warrington Bank Quay and Newton-le-Willows on it's way to Manchester, but I have heard nothing about the stopping pattern beyond that. With it being a "Connect" service, I can't envisage it stopping at Patricroft or Eccles.

ITT indicates Patricroft and Eccles only have to have 1tph to Manchester off-peak. As Northern will be running 2tph from Liverpool to Manchester via Chat Moss there doesn't seem any need for standard pattern Chester services to call at Patricroft or Eccles unless they choose to do so to exceed the required minimum service level.

Standard pattern Manchester to Chester services operated by Northern won't have to call at Helsby and Frodsham but there is a requirement for some peak time services from Manchester to Chester or Ellesmere Port to serve those 2 stations.

With Ellesmere Port mentioned in the ITT but not the franchise map I imagine the occasional Ellesmere Port services will be operated by Northern Connect trains but the timetable won't identify them as such to avoid the need to upgrade the stations on the Ellesmere Port branch to Northern Connect standard.

 

[Viscount702]

ITT indicates Patricroft and Eccles only have to have 1tph to Manchester off-peak. As Northern will be running 2tph from Liverpool to Victoria via Chat Moss there doesn't seem any need for standard pattern Chester services to call at Patricroft or Eccles unless they choose to do so to exceed the required minimum service level.

Standard pattern Manchester to Chester services operated by Northern won't have to call at Helsby and Frodsham but there is a requirement for some peak time services from Manchester to Chester or Ellesmere Port to serve those 2 stations.

With Ellesmere Port mentioned in the ITT but not the franchise map I imagine the occasional Ellesmere Port services will be operated by Northern Connect trains but the timetable won't identify them as such to avoid the need to upgrade the stations on the Ellesmere Port branch to Northern Connect standard.

Which two trains will Northern run from Liverpool to Victoria

 

[northwichcat]

Which two trains will Northern run from Liverpool to Victoria

Sorry mistyped I should have said Manchester: Liverpool to Airport (stopper) and Liverpool to Leeds via Bradford (semi-fast), so places like Eccles and Patricroft will get a service to Oxford Rd and Piccadilly instead of Victoria.

 

[edwin_m]

I've tried to explain on another forum why if the Chester service goes via Dewsbury it is very unlikely to be a fast on the Calder Valley section.

 

[lejog]

I've tried to explain on another forum why if the Chester service goes via Dewsbury it is very unlikely to be a fast on the Calder Valley section.

Would you like to share your reasoning with us? Exactly what do you mean by the Calder Valley section? If its for passenger number reasons, the service proposed in the Calder Valley Strategy Study was on the basis of maximising revenue, using industry standard modelling techniques based on Northern Rail's then current actual revenue and passenger numbers and Network Rail's growth forecasts (and improved journey times). The econcomic case for the service was based on the "transformational" effect on passenger numbers forecast by a large decrease in journey times to Leeds from Hebden Bridge, Sowerby Bridge and Brighouse, stopping at more stations would dilute the predicted growth greatly.

If its for operational reasons then I'd be very interested to hear them.

 

[edwin_m]

Would you like to share your reasoning with us? Exactly what do you mean by the Calder Valley section? If its for passenger number reasons, the service proposed in the Calder Valley Strategy Study was on the basis of maximising revenue, using industry standard modelling techniques based on Northern Rail's then current actual revenue and passenger numbers and Network Rail's growth forecasts (and improved journey times). The econcomic case for the service was based on the "transformational" effect on passenger numbers forecast by a large decrease in journey times to Leeds from Hebden Bridge, Sowerby Bridge and Brighouse, stopping at more stations would dilute the predicted growth greatly.

I was referring precisely to Hebden Bridge, Sowerby Bridge and Brighouse, possibly Mytholmroyd too. These are the stations in the actual Calder Valley although similar logic also applies to Todmorden, Littleborough and Rochdale. The purpose of the service is indeed to provide faster links from these stations into Leeds. Running it faster from Manchester would entail missing some of these stops, thus defeating the primary purpose of the service but still being slower than via Huddersfield for end-to-end journeys.

Thus the logic is for the faster trains to serve Halifax and Bradford, as they are the primary links between those places and either Manchester or Leeds. It's probably difficult to do both, as capacity constraints and mix of fast and slow trains severely limits the total trains per hour that can operate on either the Calder Valley or the route through Dewsbury.

 

[exile]

I was referring precisely to Hebden Bridge, Sowerby Bridge and Brighouse, possibly Mytholmroyd too. These are the stations in the actual Calder Valley although similar logic also applies to Todmorden, Littleborough and Rochdale. The purpose of the service is indeed to provide faster links from these stations into Leeds. Running it faster from Manchester would entail missing some of these stops, thus defeating the primary purpose of the service but still being slower than via Huddersfield for end-to-end journeys.

Thus the logic is for the faster trains to serve Halifax and Bradford, as they are the primary links between those places and either Manchester or Leeds. It's probably difficult to do both, as capacity constraints and mix of fast and slow trains severely limits the total trains per hour that can operate on either the Calder Valley or the route through Dewsbury.

I'm hoping for the Chester-Leeds service to make as few stops as possible after Manchester.....

 

[Andyh82]

I'm hoping for the Chester-Leeds service to make as few stops as possible after Manchester.....

You'd be talking at least Rochdale, Todmorden, Hebden Bridge and then either Halifax, Bradford, New Pudsey or Brighouse, Dewsbury depending on which way it goes, if not others as well.

 

[cle]

You'd be talking at least Rochdale, Todmorden, Hebden Bridge and then either Halifax, Bradford, New Pudsey or Brighouse, Dewsbury depending on which way it goes, if not others as well.

There should definitely be some on that line which are actually fast, and only stop at Halifax or Brighouse - and then Bradford/Dewsbury only.

 

[lejog]

There should definitely be some on that line which are actually fast, and only stop at Halifax or Brighouse - and then Bradford/Dewsbury only.

Any particular reason why? There may be some point in a Bradford-Halifax fast to Manchester service, but a Dewsbury-Brighouse fast to Manchester service would be very strange - Dewsbury already has TPE services and why on earth run a train fast to Manchester from a small West Yorkshire town like Brighouse (350k passengers a year)?

Anyway the Bradford map for the new franchise makes it reasonably clear that "the key intermediate stations - Halifax, Hebden Bridge and Todmorden - will benefit from additional services" just as they do the existing services. (I am not reading too much into the absence of Rochdale from the list).

The service 10 years ago was 2 all stations stoppers per hour between Leeds, Bradford and Victoria, 3 semi fast services and a stopper (or 2 if you count the Burnley service) is an incredible improvement.

 

[Philip]

Don't forget Blackpool-York either. Calder Valley is there to serve the stations en route primarily, not as an express route between West Yorkshire and the North West - that's the job for TPE.

The locals from Wigan and Kirkby should run through to Rochdale, calling all stops, with perhaps one forming an all stops service to Blackburn via Copy Pit. The 4 planned long distance services from the western areas to Bradford (including from Blackpool) should run express as far as Todmorden, but then should serve ALL stations between there and Bradford (with at least 2 carrying on to Leeds serving Bramley and New Pudsey. The Southport-Leeds via Dewsbury service should also be all stops east of Summit Tunnel, perhaps also serving Smithy Bridge, Littleborough and Walsden.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
As for rolling stock - it'll be either doubled up or single 3-car 170s for this route, along with the 158s initially. The new trains will replace the 158s and work the route alongside Turbostars.

 

[sprinterguy]

As for rolling stock - it'll be either doubled up or single 3-car 170s for this route, along with the 158s initially. The new trains will replace the 158s and work the route alongside Turbostars.

Has it been confirmed anywhere that the Northern franchise will be gaining class 170s? It would seem plausible, given the large number up for grabs from Scotrail in the next couple of years, but I wasn't aware of any committed plans being unveiled.

 

[northwichcat]

There should definitely be some on that line which are actually fast, and only stop at Halifax or Brighouse - and then Bradford/Dewsbury only.

Why should a service call at Halifax but skip Rochdale? An additional Halifax-Leeds stopper is being introduced alongside the existing services and the additional Leeds-Bradford-Victoria service.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Has it been confirmed anywhere that the Northern franchise will be gaining class 170s? It would seem plausible, given the large number up for grabs from Scotrail in the next couple of years, but I wasn't aware of any committed plans being unveiled.

Arriva have said they will be taking on DMUs freed up by GWR and Scotrail. That almost certainly includes cascaded Sprinters as GWR will only be releasing 143s, 150s and 153s and Northern aren't allowed to take on the 143s (except as a short term fix.)

Doing some rough Maths Arriva will likely acquire slightly more than 120 new diesel carriages (more than half of the 281 new vehicles will have to be electric carriages.) They'll likely need most or all the 15xs and 17xs released by GWR and Scotrail in addition to that to allow for replacing the Pacers and running all the new services.

 

[sprinterguy]

Arriva have said they will be taking on DMUs freed up by GWR and Scotrail. That almost certainly includes cascaded Sprinters as GWR will only be releasing 143s, 150s and 153s and Northern aren't allowed to take on the 143s (except as a short term fix.)

Fair enough, I hadn't seen that mentioned anywhere previously.

 

[northwichcat]

As for rolling stock - it'll be either doubled up or single 3-car 170s for this route, along with the 158s initially. The new trains will replace the 158s and work the route alongside Turbostars.

The 170s won't be released by Scotrail in time for the start of that service in December 2017.

 

[lejog]

Don't forget Blackpool-York either. Calder Valley is there to serve the stations en route primarily, not as an express route between West Yorkshire and the North West - that's the job for TPE.

The locals from Wigan and Kirkby should run through to Rochdale, calling all stops, with perhaps one forming an all stops service to Blackburn via Copy Pit. The 4 planned long distance services from the western areas to Bradford (including from Blackpool) should run express as far as Todmorden, but then should serve ALL stations between there and Bradford (with at least 2 carrying on to Leeds serving Bramley and New Pudsey. The Southport-Leeds via Dewsbury service should also be all stops east of Summit Tunnel, perhaps also serving Smithy Bridge, Littleborough and Walsden.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
As for rolling stock - it'll be either doubled up or single 3-car 170s for this route, along with the 158s initially. The new trains will replace the 158s and work the route alongside Turbostars.

So the less busy stations in West Yorkshire like Mytholmroyd, Sowerby Bridge etc see a boost in services from 2tph to 5tph, at the expense of increasing existing journey times, while those in Greater Manchester will still receive only 2tph? The number of trains through to Leeds cut to 2 from the existing 4????? Have you been on a rush hour service in/out of Leeds on the Calder Valley line? Fortunately its going up to 6tph, not cut to 2tph.

Doubled up 6 car 170s? At which stations are these going to stop? Bradford but where else? Rochdale is currently having its southbound platform extended, but then its going to be cut into two four car platforms. The new 3rd platform at Halifax is not likely to be longer either. Even some of the platforms used at Leeds (12c) wouldn't be long enough.

 

[Philip]

So the less busy stations in West Yorkshire like Mytholmroyd, Sowerby Bridge etc see a boost in services from 2tph to 5tph, at the expense of increasing existing journey times, while those in Greater Manchester will still receive only 2tph? The number of trains through to Leeds cut to 2 from the existing 4????? Have you been on a rush hour service in/out of Leeds on the Calder Valley line? Fortunately its going up to 6tph, not cut to 2tph.

Doubled up 6 car 170s? At which stations are these going to stop? Bradford but where else? Rochdale is currently having its southbound platform extended, but then its going to be cut into two four car platforms. The new 3rd platform at Halifax is not likely to be longer either. Even some of the platforms used at Leeds (12c) wouldn't be long enough.

There's no guarantee the Liverpool or Man Airport to Bradford services will carry on to Leeds. All we know so far is that there will be a Chester to Leeds service almost certainly routed via Bradford, thus leaving the Southport-Leeds service to go via Dewsbury. It wouldn't surprise me if one of the Man Airport or Liverpool services terminates at Bradford, with the other carrying on to Leeds.

That would leave 4 trains per hour between Halifax and Leeds (1x Blackpool, 1x Chester, 1x Liverpool/Airport and 1x local) and 4 also from stations further west, the Southport via Dewsbury service replacing the local from Halifax. That is plenty. It's quite likely there will be at least 3 stopping trains between Manchester and Rochdale, and at least 2 between Rochdale and Todmorden, again that is plenty.

I meant either 3-car 170s or doubled up 2-car 170s. So either 3 or 4 carriages.

 

[northwichcat]

All we know so far is that there will be a Chester to Leeds service almost certainly routed via Bradford, thus leaving the Southport-Leeds service to go via Dewsbury.

?

One of the current Southport services each hour to Manchester will be extended to provide a direct link either to Leeds or Bradford (or both). All Pacers will be withdrawn, to be replaced with fully refurbished trains.
...
The new Northern franchisee will introduce an hourly Northern Connect service between Chester and Manchester (via Warrington Bank Quay, Earlestown and Newton-le-Willows). This will operate alongside an existing Arriva Trains Wales, which currently operates 1 train per hour off-peak and 2 trains per hour in the peak.

This will be operated by brand new diesel trains, and will run through to Leeds via Manchester Victoria and the Calder Valley.

From that it sounds like nothing was confirmed for certain last month and they were actually hinting more at the opposite of what you say.

I do accept not all Manchester to Bradford services may continue to Leeds, especially considering Arriva are introducing a Bradford-Leeds-Nottingham service and a Bradford-Leeds-Lincoln service.

I also note the ITT required a minimum of 2tph from Halifax to Manchester and 4tph from Halifax to Leeds in the off-peak period*, so there is the possibly of Manchester to Leeds Northern services skipping Halifax given the Blackpool-Leeds goes via Halifax and the a new Halifax-Leeds stopper will be introduced as well as an additional Manchester-Bradford service.

* But from the new franchise announcement it sounds like Arriva will run 5tph to Leeds.

 

[Philip]

The Southport service is vague - it says Bradford, or Leeds, or both and that leaves the route open to interpretation. It depends which place the planners consider to be a bigger market for Bradford passengers - Chester or Southport. Chester seems more likely, given that it will also serve Warrington. Unless you think Wigan and Skelmersdale also have huge unlocked potential towards West Yorkshire?

 

[northwichcat]

The Southport service is vague - it says Bradford, or Leeds, or both and that leaves the route open to interpretation. It depends which place the planners consider to be a bigger market for Bradford passengers - Chester or Southport. Chester seems more likely, given that it will also serve Warrington. Unless you think Wigan and Skelmersdale also have huge unlocked potential towards West Yorkshire?

Either Warrington or Wigan would provide better connections between the WCML and Calder Valley.

It also depends on pathing if a Southport-Dewsbury-Leeds would have to sit at Victoria for 20 minutes due to pathing constraints then it would defeat the point of it being a through service.

I thought Skelmersdale station closed a long time ago!

 

[Philip]

Either Warrington or Wigan would provide better connections between the WCML and Calder Valley.

It also depends on pathing if a Southport-Dewsbury-Leeds would have to sit at Victoria for 20 minutes due to pathing constraints then it would defeat the point of it being a through service.

I thought Skelmersdale station closed a long time ago!

Parbold serves Skelmersdale, slightly tongue in cheek though. There's also the North Wales and Dublin markets to consider and Chester has the advantage there. Surely pathing constraints could apply to any of the new through services though, as none of them are likely to be express?

 

[lejog]

There's no guarantee the Liverpool or Man Airport to Bradford services will carry on to Leeds. All we know so far is that there will be a Chester to Leeds service almost certainly routed via Bradford, thus leaving the Southport-Leeds service to go via Dewsbury. It wouldn't surprise me if one of the Man Airport or Liverpool services terminates at Bradford, with the other carrying on to Leeds.

That would leave 4 trains per hour between Halifax and Leeds (1x Blackpool, 1x Chester, 1x Liverpool/Airport and 1x local) and 4 also from stations further west, the Southport via Dewsbury service replacing the local from Halifax. That is plenty. It's quite likely there will be at least 3 stopping trains between Manchester and Rochdale, and at least 2 between Rochdale and Todmorden, again that is plenty.

I meant either 3-car 170s or doubled up 2-car 170s. So either 3 or 4 carriages.

I think you are guilty of taking the franchise announcements far too literally. They were written for public relations reasons and prominently entitled benefits, aimed at the press and travelling public, not the exact specification of services required by members of this forum. The Calder Valley services have since since Northern Hub days been described as Bradford to Manchester services, both to distinguish from TPE Leeds to Manchester services and for the very good PR reason that Bradford is prominently mentioned.

Even in this imprecise specification there are 6tph from Halifax to Bradford - 3 from Victoria, 1 new service from Halifax to Leeds, and the existing services from Blackpool North and Huddersfield (plus a few Grand Central trains). The current service is 4tph from Halifax to Leeds and will definitely not be "plenty" given future growth - these services are already full running into/out of Leeds in the rush hour with the maximum length 4car trains.

While it is possible for some trains of these 6tph to terminate at Bradford, it would seem unlikely. A terminating service would presumably require around a 10min layover, rather than the current 2 or 3 minutes and reduce capacity. Certainly Grand Central couldn't park their trains there for prolonged periods as they do now,

Finally the business case for the infrastructure interventions on the line (Halifax 3rd platform, Bradford remodelling, Leeds capacity, improved headways) depends on 6tph serving the Halifax to Leeds corridor. Why does the HLOS for CP5 specify a requirement for Leeds to support 2 extra Calder Valley trains if the current 4tph is "plenty"? Why does CP5 specify a turnround to be built at Micklefield (if East Leeds Parkway isn't built) to meet this requirement?

Without knowing exact seating numbers, wouldn't 3 car 170s represent a loss in capacity compared with the 4 car units currently used in rush hours?

 

[northwichcat]

Surely pathing constraints could apply to any of the new through services though, as none of them are likely to be express?

Yes it could apply to any prospective service but if it was more likely to cause problems for Southport-Dewsbury-Leeds and Chester-Bradford-Leeds than Southport-Bradford(-Leeds) and Chester-Dewsbury-Leeds then surely Arriva would consider running latter as it still meets their franchise requirements?

 

[lejog]

The Southport service is vague - it says Bradford, or Leeds, or both and that leaves the route open to interpretation. It depends which place the planners consider to be a bigger market for Bradford passengers - Chester or Southport. Chester seems more likely, given that it will also serve Warrington. Unless you think Wigan and Skelmersdale also have huge unlocked potential towards West Yorkshire?

The Southport service is not open to tas much interpretion as you suggest. Both Chester and Southport services are shown on the maps as running through either Bradford or Brighouse, but the text on the Bradford map makes clear that the Northern Connect Chester service will serve Bradford for most of the day. Thus, if current services are to be maintained, it may be deduced that the Southport service will be an extension of the current Brighouse stopper for most of the day and will only provide a limited service via Bradford, swapping to this route when the Chester service runs through Brighouse.

 

[tbtc]

I've tried to explain on another forum why if the Chester service goes via Dewsbury it is very unlikely to be a fast on the Calder Valley section.

I was referring precisely to Hebden Bridge, Sowerby Bridge and Brighouse, possibly Mytholmroyd too. These are the stations in the actual Calder Valley although similar logic also applies to Todmorden, Littleborough and Rochdale. The purpose of the service is indeed to provide faster links from these stations into Leeds. Running it faster from Manchester would entail missing some of these stops, thus defeating the primary purpose of the service but still being slower than via Huddersfield for end-to-end journeys.

Thus the logic is for the faster trains to serve Halifax and Bradford, as they are the primary links between those places and either Manchester or Leeds. It's probably difficult to do both, as capacity constraints and mix of fast and slow trains severely limits the total trains per hour that can operate on either the Calder Valley or the route through Dewsbury.

I agree with your logic.

If the plan is to give Bradford some "fast" services to Manchester (as there's no point in running the "via Dewsbury" services as fast through the Calder Valley, since Dewsbury will have significantly faster services via Huddersfield)...

...and we know that the "fast" services will run to Liverpool and the Airport...

...then it seems reasonable that the Calder Valley services *not* running to Liverpool/ Airport will be slower...

...in which case the Chester service ought to be a slow one. Makes sense to me.

The service 10 years ago was 2 all stations stoppers per hour between Leeds, Bradford and Victoria, 3 semi fast services and a stopper (or 2 if you count the Burnley service) is an incredible improvement.

Agreed - it's had a huge improvement (plus an upgrade on the longer distance services from 155s to mainly 158s)

I do accept not all Manchester to Bradford services may continue to Leeds, especially considering Arriva are introducing a Bradford-Leeds-Nottingham service and a Bradford-Leeds-Lincoln service

I agree that some services may not run "through" Bradford (though given the need to provide places like Halifax with a frequent service to Leeds, I'd expect most to)...

...however I'd not seen that the Lincoln - Sheffield - Barnsley - Wakefield Kirkgate - Leeds service was also being extended to Bradford (along with the Nottingham - Sheffield - Wakefield Westgate - Leeds service) - when was that announced?

Is this in addition to the Leeds - Halifax terminator? That's going to mean even more reversals at Leeds (esp given that the Wakefield Kirkgate line is on the southern extreme of the throat).

 

[lejog]

Either Warrington or Wigan would provide better connections between the WCML and Calder Valley.

It also depends on pathing if a Southport-Dewsbury-Leeds would have to sit at Victoria for 20 minutes due to pathing constraints then it would defeat the point of it being a through service.

I agree with this. IIRC while there where strong requirements from the original "Manchester Hub" to run through trains from the Calder Valley through to Manchester Airport and Liverpool (Chester appeared a little later), the driver for running the other services through to the west was to improve capacity at Victoria by not cutting across Stalybridge TPE services to the bay platforms. Destinations were more a timetabling issue.