Stagecoach tender for new rolling stock for franchise bids

[Peter Sarf]

Brainstorm regarding West Coast Mainline (WCML) - and Cross Country (XC). Could it be the other way round with The West Coast Mainline seeking all of the tilt capable 221s from Cross Country (they started life as tilt capable) ?. So Stagecoach could be procuring a fleet of non-tilting DMUs to sublease to Cross Country. The rest of Cross Country's fleet are non-tilting 220s and HSTs after all.

For Cross Country would 20-50 units tie in with HST and 221 replacement WITH capacity improvements ?.

I have wondered in the past what scope there is for reforming some/all of the 9-car Pendolinos into 7-car and 11-car Pendolinos. Coupled with a number of extra new intercity units this could provide a uniform fleet of 11-car high speed trains from Euston and some 9-car high speed trains for Manchester and/or Birmingham to Scotland.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Birmingham to Scotland now runs through from Euston using a mix of train lengths - the one I'm on at this very moment is a 5 car Voyager which seems sufficient (surprised the last through train of the day isn't busier, but maybe more business travellers fly?) but most others are Pendolino or double Voyager and well filled. No sense in reducing to 7 car.

 

[edwin_m]

Could anything be done to "fix" the differential problem ?

Difficult to tell because, as with most speed restriction issues, it's not obvious which of the many reasons to limit speed come into play here.

It's not braking, because the 185 will conform to standards at least as strict as those applied to the 158, so it wouldn't be a question of increasing signal spacings (I think braking is more relevant to HST differentials than SP ones anyway).

I fear it is actually something related to axle load, as the 185 is will known to be much heavier than a 158. This suggests perhaps a problem with structures or a need to do more intensive track maintenance, but without knowing the extent of the problem it's difficult to have any idea how easy it would be to fix.

Although I'm one of the biggest critics of the Northern fleet, including the 158's, the EMT 158's are a step change better - just goes to show what some new seats, improved lighting and a heating/ventilation system that sorta works can do. Is there anything actually better than a well refurbished 158 ?

A well-refurbished 158 with a few more tables plus Wi-Fi and power sockets.

 

[RobShipway]

Brainstorm regarding West Coast Mainline (WCML) - and Cross Country (XC). Could it be the other way round with The West Coast Mainline seeking all of the tilt capable 221s from Cross Country (they started life as tilt capable) ?. So Stagecoach could be procuring a fleet of non-tilting DMUs to sublease to Cross Country. The rest of Cross Country's fleet are non-tilting 220s and HSTs after all.

For Cross Country would 20-50 nits tie in with HST and 221 replacement WITH capacity improvements ?.

I have wondered in the past what scope there is for reforming some/all of the 9-car Pendolinos into 7-car and 11-car Pendolinos. Coupled with a number of extra new intercity units this could provide a uniform fleet of 11-car high speed trains from Euston and some 9-car high speed trains for Manchester and/or Birmingham to Scotland.

Let's put it this way Peter XC have all 34 class 220's, 23 Class 221's and I believe 5 HST sets as they have 10 class 43's.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Brainstorm regarding West Coast Mainline (WCML) - and Cross Country (XC). Could it be the other way round with The West Coast Mainline seeking all of the tilt capable 221s from Cross Country (they started life as tilt capable) ?. So Stagecoach could be procuring a fleet of non-tilting DMUs to sublease to Cross Country. The rest of Cross Country's fleet are non-tilting 220s and HSTs after all.

Let's put it this way Peter XC have all 34 class 220's, 23 Class 221's and I believe 5 HST sets as they have 10 class 43's.

Interesting thought, and 50 units against 23 XC 221s + 20 VT 221s + 5 XC HSTs = 48 so a pretty close match and I could well believe the extra two as a fleet boost. Use on XC would also explain the apparent hint at bi-mode. Given the timescale these could well end up being a further batch of 800s couldn't they?

For Cross Country would 20-50 nits tie in with HST and 221 replacement WITH capacity improvements ?

Well... there's certainly plenty of those working at the DfT....

 

[Bletchleyite]

A well-refurbished 158 with a few more tables plus Wi-Fi and power sockets.

Like the ATW ones with wifi added, then? As I noted above that is what I expect Northern will get.

 

[sprinterguy]

In the case of the West Coast and West Midlands franchises, this seems like potential for a surprisingly large amount of new stock for franchises that already seem well provided for and I wouldn't have expected to be experiencing shortages of rolling stock going forward into the 2020s (Reduced requirement for Pendolinos on West Coast following the opening of HS2, the possibility of Northern's 323s moving to the West Midlands later this decade and the availability of a large number of 170s from Scotrail, a type which the West Midlands franchise already operates).

Because XC run on the WCML and lines linked to the WCML - The other four operate within a specific geographic area, XC does not

I'm not sure how a specific reference to the "Intercity West Coast franchise" is seen as being open to interpretation.

 

[northwichcat]

The EMT ones are good, but the ATW ones are even better - more tables (but not too many) and a better seat pitch. Otherwise very similar, same seats at least. It would surprise me if Arriva didn't do the Northern ones the same.

I imagine that's very likely giving some of the 158s will be used on North East 'Northern Connect' service.

 

[sprinterguy]

I suspect if a deal is signed with CAF for these trains to end up in the West Midlands, hence why I think that in the image of first class on these trains it is showing the destination of Birmingham New Street. I am also suspecting that the CAF trains will be 4 or 5 cars per train and replace the class 323's on the Cross City route with 3+2 seating.

That seems to be a whole host of bold assumptions with little basis in fact (what little has actually been publically released), given that the prospective order from Stagecoach for the West Midlands franchise states train lengths of 70 and 80 metres - or were you referring to the future of Cross City rolling stock irrespective of the operator of the next franchise?

Even if so, it seems a tad far-fetched: Five carriage trains would offer less capacity than the current services operating on a network optimised for maximum 6 x 23 metre carriage trains, and could not be used in multiple. Four carriage trains, assuming 20 metres carriages, may well be possible, but are likely to require platform extensions to allow pairs of units to operate, to the tune of an additional 22 metres of train length, at some locations such as Aston where space is restricted.

I would also expect, although this is no more than personal opinion, any future Cross City rolling stock to be fitted with a 2+2 "Metro" style layout, which is the way that high density commuter rolling stock design seems to be moving, as seen with c2c's refurbished 357/3s and London Midland's own 172s, both of which have superseded 2+3 seating layouts on the routes that they operate.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would also expect, although this is no more than personal opinion, any future Cross City rolling stock to be fitted with a 2+2 "Metro" style layout, which is the way that high density commuter rolling stock design seems to be moving, as seen with c2c's refurbished 357/3s and London Midland's own 172s, both of which have superseded 2+3 seating layouts on the routes that they operate.

I'm sure I recall LM saying at one point, with the 172s, that they regretted ordering 3+2 seating in the 350/2s and that there would not, while they are in charge, be any more of it. There might, however, be more metro-style 2+2, i.e. with narrow seats and no armrests, which allows for more standing.

 

[ian959]

In a sane world, 3+2 seating would be a thing of the past and metro style 2+2 allowing for more standing room would be the norm. However, as long as DfT are involved, it is unlikely that sanity will prevail.

 

[swt_passenger]

Let's put it this way Peter XC have all 34 class 220's, 23 Class 221's and I believe 5 HST sets as they have 10 class 43's.

The proposals is for the franchises being let in 2016/17 therefore it does not include XC:

Framework Agreement for the supply and optional maintenance of passenger rolling stock to cover suburban, commuter and long distance services to cater for Rail Franchise bids which are anticipated to be offered to the market by the Department for Transport (DfT) or any other UK statutory body in 2016/17.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Even if so, it seems a tad far-fetched: Five carriage trains would offer less capacity than the current services operating on a network optimised for maximum 6 x 23 metre carriage trains, and could not be used in multiple.

That makes the assumption that the additional capacity required at peak times would not be provided by running a higher frequency instead of longer trains.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

In a sane world, 3+2 seating would be a thing of the past and metro style 2+2 allowing for more standing room would be the norm. However, as long as DfT are involved, it is unlikely that sanity will prevail.

Erm, it has, hasn't it?

Has any new 3+2 seated stock been introduced since the 350/2? I don't think it has.

 

[sprinterguy]

That makes the assumption that the additional capacity required at peak times would not be provided by running a higher frequency instead of longer trains.

I'm not sure that you could increase the Cross City line frequency further without causing considerable pathing conflicts and congestion, particularly on the south side where the line is shared with longer distance London Midland and Crosscountry services. It seems daft not to continue to make use of the maximum length permitted by the infrastructure.

 

[Peter Sarf]

The proposals is for the franchises being let in 2016/17 therefore it does not include XC:

Thats why I can only dare go as far as suggesting West Coast, in THEIR franchise commitment, are after a cascade in two ways :-

More 221s for West Coast and so the new stock would be for SWAPPING with Cross Country. That leaves Cross Country with an extra type of train to operaten unless there are even more new units to replace Cross Country's 5 HSTs.

Then again perhaps Cross Country would like to take all 20 of West Coast's 221s so as to gain capacity (10 x 221s) and shed the BELOVED 5 HSTs (10 x 221s). That leaves West Coast getting a completely new fleet.

My second brainstorm seems more likely given the expected train lengths of 120 metres (6*20m or 5*23m) and 255 metres (11-car Pendolino but bi-mode ?). Tilt does not seem to be in the specification though ?.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I'm not sure that you could increase the Cross City line frequency further without causing considerable pathing conflicts and congestion, particularly on the south side where the line is shared with longer distance London Midland and Crosscountry services. It seems daft not to continue to make use of the maximum length permitted by the infrastructure.

In my ideal world the Cross City line would go under Birmingham New Street station in a tunnel. This would free up capacity in the main station and get rid of the frequent grossly conflicting moves where all but the up Euston and NE bound services are got in the way of !. As you say though the twin track from New Street to Kings Norton is the next bottle neck. But from what I vaguely remember there is land available at University for a four track/ platform station. Either that or the tunnels would have to extend further South. How about a branch to the West of University for running the services from Walsall/Rugely through to ?. Wonder where the better thread for this is .

I seem to recall that the Cross City line platforms are currently suitable for pairs of 323s so units longer than a single 323 (3-car) would preclude maximum length trains unless the new units were equivalent in length to a pair of 323s. Given the failrly high frequency on Birmingham Cross City I think that capacity gains would come in the form of longer trains. Particuler problem is Aston station as that is hemmed in by junctions at each end.

 

[The Ham]

Thats why I can only dare go as far as suggesting West Coast, in THEIR franchise commitment, are after a cascade in two ways :-

More 221s for West Coast and so the new stock would be for SWAPPING with Cross Country. That leaves Cross Country with an extra type of train to operaten unless there are even more new units to replace Cross Country's 5 HSTs.

Then again perhaps Cross Country would like to take all 20 of West Coast's 221s so as to gain capacity (10 x 221s) and shed the BELOVED 5 HSTs (10 x 221s). That leaves West Coast getting a completely new fleet.

My second brainstorm seems more likely given the expected train lengths of 120 metres (6*20m or 5*23m) and 255 metres (11-car Pendolino but bi-mode ?). Tilt does not seem to be in the specification though ?.

XC franchise is due to start over a year after the ICWC franchise, as such I can't see someone bidding for ICWC betting on being able to use XC's 221's.

As I have said before (ignoring the 10 x 221's to replace the HST's) just one extra 221 from ICWC to XC would allow the following:
New 221 from ICWC replacing a 220 (250 seats vs 200)
That 220 paired with another 220 to replace a 221 (XC) (400 seats vs 250)
The 221 (XC) above replaces the "another 220" to allow it to be used above (250 vs 200))

In doing so 10 extra 221's being used by XC could result in 20 of the 34 sets of the 220's being run permanently paired up (before allowing for any existing services run by pairs of 220's), which would require extra staff compared to running them as single length units.

That is why I had previously assumed that XC would be more inclined to look at new units (EMU's?) and utilising just the central carriages from the 22x's to lengthen sets rather than running more sets but with the similar capacity. As (ignoring the lease costs) the staff costs and track access charges would be less.

Add to that lower fuel costs for the south coast to Manchester services due to them being able to run as EMU's (potentially soon enough after the start of the franchise to make it worth doing) and then even if there are extra costs due to scrapping some end units then it could be worth their while doing.

 

[absolutelymilk]

Add to that lower fuel costs for the south coast to Manchester services due to them being able to run as EMU's (potentially soon enough after the start of the franchise to make it worth doing)

Which routes are you referring to here?

 

[Haydn1971]

I'm not sure how a specific reference to the "Intercity West Coast franchise" is seen as being open to interpretation.

OK, so what else is it then ? London Midland ? Up to 50 trains between 120 and 255m long, some electric, some self powered - Virgin currently have 20, 120m long 221's, what's the other 30 going to do ?

 

[The Ham]

Which routes are you referring to here?

At present the Bournemouth to Manchester service required the use of a DMU due to there being gaps in the electrification of the route. After 2020 (assuming the electric spine is finished early in CP6) it would be possible to use an EMU to run such a service fairly early in the next XC franchise period.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

OK, so what else is it then ? London Midland ? Up to 50 trains between 120 and 255m long, some electric, some self powered - Virgin currently have 20, 120m long 221's, what's the other 30 going to do ?

The point is it may not be 30 extra units it may result in an order for a total of 20, or even 21. It could well be that there are options to "split" some of the longer trains to serve more locations and so they want to consider that.

Yes, an extra 50 units of uprising 9 coaches could be too many, however I'd have thought that the full order for all the franchises listed would result in too many units nationally.

 

[RobShipway]

At present the Bournemouth to Manchester service required the use of a DMU due to there being gaps in the electrification of the route. After 2020 (assuming the electric spine is finished early in CP6) it would be possible to use an EMU to run such a service fairly early in the next XC franchise period.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


The point is it may not be 30 extra units it may result in an order for a total of 20, or even 21. It could well be that there are options to "split" some of the longer trains to serve more locations and so they want to consider that.

Yes, an extra 50 units of uprising 9 coaches could be too many, however I'd have thought that the full order for all the franchises listed would result in too many units nationally.

I would imagine that the next XC franchise would look to having Hybrid EDMU's, rather than EMU's as I cannot see full electrification of all routes that XC runs on by the time the next XC franchise starts.

Also, I would expect hybrid trains especially if there is any thoughts of trains going North from Edingburgh/Glasgow in the next XC franchise to Aberdeen or Inverness.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I would imagine that the next XC franchise would look to having Hybrid EDMU's, rather than EMU's as I cannot see full electrification of all routes that XC runs on by the time the next XC franchise starts.

Also, I would expect hybrid trains especially if there is any thoughts of trains going North from Edingburgh/Glasgow in the next XC franchise to Aberdeen or Inverness.

Reading the above posts makes two things spring to mind.

The growing case for Bi-Mode units. For example Bournemouth to Manchester prior to 25KV AC electrification throughout - but I can see 25KV AC conversion of Basingstoke to Bournemouth being so far in the future that it is not a consideration.

The fact that some TOCs, Cross Country particularly, are hamstrung by short units that are not easy to run in multiple due to there being no through connection between units.

In the IEP / 800 thread there are arguments going round about the 5-car units providing operational flexibility but needing more staff as, when running in pairs, there is no gangway connection between units. We will have to see how much of a problem this is but, prior to operation princess, the Cross Country voyagers did run predominantly in pairs. So I wonder how much of an issue that was then. In that case I see operation Princess as resulting in a cluttering up the network up with short trains. So I would expect something to be done to justify those paths through urban areas like Birmingham. Possibly with a cascade of 221s to/from West Coast. But wild conjecture possibly heading off topic.

 

[sprinterguy]

OK, so what else is it then ? London Midland ? Up to 50 trains between 120 and 255m long, some electric, some self powered - Virgin currently have 20, 120m long 221's, what's the other 30 going to do ?

It isn't anything else, that's the point. If the proposed order was for the West Midlands franchise then I assume that it would have been included under that heading.

I've no idea what thirty additional trains might be for - I've made a comment to that effect in post number 67 - but it is evident that neither does anybody else, and as The Ham says it is only a prospective tender, likely subject to change if Stagecoach actually were to win the franchise.

 

[swt_passenger]

Southampton to Bournemouth is not part of the electric spine, so anyone wanting to run an AC EMU to Bournemouth is going to need dual voltage ones.

But anyway, (and just to put a spanner in the works), has anyone else considered that with the various stock shuffles possible in the next couple of years, perhaps Stagecoach are also just asking for revised terms to lease some existing fleets? Is there anything in the OJEU notice that specifically states this is only about new construction rolling stock?

 

[The Ham]

Southampton to Bournemouth is not part of the electric spine, so anyone wanting to run an AC EMU to Bournemouth is going to need dual voltage ones.

I was aware that the would need to be dual voltage, I just said that it could be run by an EMU.

But anyway, (and just to put a spanner in the works), has anyone else considered that with the various stock shuffles possible in the next couple of years, perhaps Stagecoach are also just asking for revised terms to lease some existing fleets? Is there anything in the OJEU notice that specifically states this is only about new construction rolling stock?

The OP states (my bold):

Stagecoach have issued an OJEU notice for the supply and possibly maintenance of new build rolling stock for future franchise bids.

Of course that doesn't rule out that Stagecoach are looking for a better deal on the existing fleets.

 

[hwl]

Of course that doesn't rule out that Stagecoach are looking for a better deal on the existing fleets.

Exactly - the ROSCOs with existing stock will need to come in a worth while bit cheaper than new build (including refurb costs) so this is definitely a good negotiating tactic.

My guess would be in most cases only part of an order would be taken up in the event of a win due to ROSCOs being "helpful". Lots of the existing stock will be needing refurbs and stagecoaches recent experience there hasn't been great (458s, 456s and delayed retractioning of 455s) possibly putting them off bit refurb /modification programmes in favour of new stock? SO existing stock will need to be keenly priced.

 

[Bigfoot]

Lot 1 — South Western Franchise

Supply of a fleet of new build electric and self-powered rolling stock for operation on suburban, commuter and long distance heavy rail passenger routes. For operation on electrified routes, the rolling stock will use the 750 V DC third rail system. It is anticipated that there will be three sub-lots for rolling stock units in differing configurations appropriate to service requirements/routes. Units will be in formations of 80 metres, 100 metres, 120 metres and 240 metres in length and the quantity will range between 60 and 200 units.

Contract value anticipated to be between GBP 280 000 000 — GBP 1 400 000 000.

A bit of fag packet maths using the price quoted for the 30x5 car 707s to replace all of the 455 and 456s is £576.8 million. That's just carriage for carriage replacement. No additional length to the trains.

(The cost per coach for the 700 order is slightly more than the swt 707 order but it includes depots as part of the deal.)

Also all the 700s would be built in time for the new franchise to place an order for more class 700... Convenient eh...

 

[swt_passenger]

Of course that doesn't rule out that Stagecoach are looking for a better deal on the existing fleets.

Don't know how I missed the wording 'new build' despite reading it a number of times. But what made me start wondering was that the ITT that eventually produced the 458/5s and 456 solution started out as a requirement for 120-180 new EMU vehicles. It was the ROSCO that came up with the alternative option.

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

A bit of fag packet maths using the price quoted for the 30x5 car 707s to replace all of the 455 and 456s is £576.8 million.

But what about Crossrail 2 potentially replacing at least half the fleet eventually, and the current plan to re-traction the 455s with Vossloh-Kiepe equipment for a 10 year life extension?

Of course, if a decision has been made on the quiet, and the re-tractioning was about to be cancelled, that would be a different matter...

 

[The Ham]

Don't know how I missed the wording 'new build' despite reading it a number of times. But what made me start wondering was that the ITT that eventually produced the 458/5s and 456 solution started out as a requirement for 120-180 new EMU vehicles. It was the ROSCO that came up with the alternative option.

I had to go back and check, as once you said I wasn't sure that we hadn't all just assumed that it was new build (who doesn't want to assume that they are getting new trains!).

 

[hwl]

There will be no frequency increase for Southeastern after London bridge works are finished. It only increases Thameslink frequencies. It's even possible SE will see a reduction.

The frequency of SE services to Charing Cross and Cannon Street has been reduced during the London Bridge works.

The frequency after completion will be 1 less tph at Charing Cross (29 to 28tph) and 3 tph less at Cannon Street (25 to 22tph). However there are an extra 4tph less running to Charing Cross at the moment till all of P6-9 are available for stopping services at London Bridge.

So there will be frequency increase from the service level today.

There will also be extra TL (SE services) and SE (to terminating platforms) at Blackfriars (not via London Bridge) which will compensate for the loss of the other CHX/CST services.

The 1tph reduction into Charing Cross is possibly due to running more 12 car services as they occupy junctions for longer - the capacity in terms of Cars Per Hour to CHX may actually increase. The 3tph loss to Cannon Street is due to ECS moves via the curve and Blackfriars no longer being possible.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I had to go back and check, as once you said I wasn't sure that we hadn't all just assumed that it was new build (who doesn't want to assume that they are getting new trains!).

The tender wording states alternative solutions allowed.

 

[coppercapped]

All this speculation about a open invitation for manufacturers to show their interest...and there's not an order in sight at the moment!

Stagecoach are publicly showing their interest that they are considering responding to some or all of the Invitations Io Tender expected to be published by the DfT for the named franchises sometime in 2016 or 2017. In order to be able to make considered bids Stagecoach needs to know (a) what the lead times are for new rolling stock, (b) what the manufacturing rate could be, (c) the price, (d) the expected reliability, (e) maintenance requirements, (f) etc., etc. The best way to learn all this is by talking to the manufacturers and the results will be fed into the bid(s) for the franchise(s).

Stagecoach is starting to do its homework now for ITTs expected to be published anything up to two years away.

So none, some or all of the notional number of trains might be bought.