Oldham byelection and impact on Jeremy Corbyn

[Dave1987]

This is a quote from the Independent.

A good night for Labour, then. With a nod to Peter Snow, the BBC’s doyen of electoral swing, *theTelegraph*had “a bit of fun” and extrapolated that Mr Corbyn would be on course for general election success – just eight seats short of an overall majority – if Labour’s Oldham West and Royton performance were repeated across the country.

If a constituency like Normanton had a huge swing back to Labour in a by-election then I would get worried that Corbyn's Labour stood a chance of a majority at a GE. Holding a Labour stronghold isn't really a massive endorsement from the electorate. As always it the marginals that matter. You will probably find that Corbyn and McDonnell will alienate voters in some constituencies that might have voted Labour under Milliband.

 

[Smudger105e]

If a constituency like Normanton had a huge swing back to Labour in a by-election then I would get worried that Corbyn's Labour stood a chance of a majority at a GE. Holding a Labour stronghold isn't really a massive endorsement from the electorate. As always it the marginals that matter.

Numbers don't lie. The swing was away from UKIP and the Conservatives to Labour. A significant swing. This swing must have been floating voters, surely. And as the article says, if the swing was of this magnitude nationwide, Labour would only just be shy of a majority.

 

[Dave1987]

Numbers don't lie. The swing was away from UKIP and the Conservatives to Labour. A significant swing. This swing must have been floating voters, surely. And as the article says, if the swing was of this magnitude nationwide, Labour would only just be shy of a majority.

Significant swing or not, its one by-election in a Labour stronghold. If there was a significant swing to Labour in a marginal then I would agree that floating voters are going to Labour under Corbyn. But I wouldn't start popping the champagne just yet, and its certainly not the national swing Corbyn needs to replicate Tony Blairs majorities.

 

[Smudger105e]

its certainly not the national swing Corbyn needs to replicate Tony Blairs majorities.

No, of course it's not. It is still early days in Corbyn's tenure.

But let's say UKIP had made inroads into Labour's majority. I'm sure that certain people would be crowing that Labour is doomed etc etc. If Jeremy Corbyn was as unpopular as the media are painting him, I don't believe the bye election result would have been the same as it was.

 

[Dave1987]

No, of course it's not. It is still early days in Corbyn's tenure.

But let's say UKIP had made inroads into Labour's majority. I'm sure that certain people would be crowing that Labour is doomed etc etc. If Jeremy Corbyn was as unpopular as the media are painting him, I don't believe the bye election result would have been the same as it was.

The media, both left and right wing media, have just highlighted the massive infighting that has happened since Corbyn took over. Yes you will get a lot of people who like Corbyn's politics. But you will get a lot of people who hate Corbyn's politics. All McDonnell has said so far is he would ramp up spending and hike up taxes. Loads and loads of people would be hammered by his tax rises so can't see those marginals going Labour's way at the moment.

 

[HMS Ark Royal]

No, of course it's not. It is still early days in Corbyn's tenure.

But let's say UKIP had made inroads into Labour's majority. I'm sure that certain people would be crowing that Labour is doomed etc etc.

I believe the term you are looking for is "hopelessly doomed"

That man is just as much a menace to the UK as Hitler

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Numbers don't lie. The swing was away from UKIP and the Conservatives to Labour. A significant swing. This swing must have been floating voters, surely. And as the article says, if the swing was of this magnitude nationwide, Labour would only just be shy of a majority.

Now that a Labour stronghold has been discussed, let us look at the 2015 General Election result for a certain other Northern constituency, TATTON, where a "certain person" held the seat for the Conservatives and Labour fought off the challenge from UKIP to finish second:-
Conservative......26,552.....58.6% of the total votes cast.
Labour................8,311.....18.3% of the total votes cast.

Laughing aloud at the stupid hypothesis of the referred-to article in your posting that I have emboldened, can you honestly and truly feel that the Tatton constituency, where the Labour Party did indeed take nearly 20% of the total votes cast, would be under the referred groundswell of a mass return of the voters of all political persuasions to a Labour Party led by "kind uncle Jeremy"?

 

[Smudger105e]

I believe the term you are looking for is "hopelessly doomed"

That man is just as much a menace to the UK as Hitler

I would like to make the strongest objection to the likening of Jeremy Corby to Hitler. This is an unjustifiable slur. Please would you tell everyone when Corby took action that would start a war when he is quite clearly a pacifist. I'm not saying that view of his is necessarily right, but like Hitler. Purleez.

If Corby is like Hitler, where would that put Cameron?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I would like to make the strongest objection to the likening of Jeremy Corby to Hitler. This is an unjustifiable slur. Please would you tell everyone when Corby took action that would start a war when he is quite clearly a pacifist. I'm not saying that view of his is necessarily right, but like Hitler. Purleez.

If Corby is like Hitler, where would that put Cameron?

Corbyn not Corby!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Now that a Labour stronghold has been discussed, let us look at the 2015 General Election result for a certain other Northern constituency, TATTON, where a "certain person" held the seat for the Conservatives and Labour fought off the challenge from UKIP to finish second:-
Conservative......26,552.....58.6% of the total votes cast.
Labour................8,311.....18.3% of the total votes cast.

Laughing aloud at the stupid hypothesis of the referred-to article in your posting that I have emboldened, can you honestly and truly feel that the Tatton constituency, where the Labour Party did indeed take nearly 20% of the total votes cast, would be under the referred groundswell of a mass return of the voters of all political persuasions to a Labour Party led by "kind uncle Jeremy"?

It was not the percentage of the vote that was being referred to. It was the %age of swing that made the Grauniad make the assumption.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

. Loads and loads of people would be hammered by his tax rises so can't see those marginals going Labour's way at the moment.

How many is loads and loads? I think, from what I have read, tax rises would fall (quite rightly) on the hyper-rich and the super-rich. Now, I don't move in those sort of circles, but of course the narrative that is spun in the media is that anyone who is paid just more than the average wage would be hit, ie those on 30k ish plus. It is in the interests of the super rich, with their offshore accounts etc to encourage the belief amongst Joe Public that they would be hit...which is absolute rubbish.

 

[backontrack]

ENOUGH!! The man's not Hitler, and he's not a trouser press either!

I don't necessarily agree with him, but Cameron is even worse for the UK. Do you really want to condemn the rest of the UK to five more years of him, Osborne and IDS???

I'll be honest that I don't feel Corbyn is that good. But we've been focusing too much on how the opposition is. Let's have a look at how bad the current government is first/

 

[miami]

I would like to make the strongest objection to the likening of Jeremy Corby to Hitler. This is an unjustifiable slur. Please would you tell everyone when Corby took action that would start a war when he is quite clearly a pacifist. I'm not saying that view of his is necessarily right, but like Hitler. Purleez.

Remember, as an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1.

 

[Domh245]

I don't necessarily agree with him, but Cameron is even worse for the UK. Do you really want to condemn the rest of the UK to five more years of him, Osborne and IDS??

Ps: Cameron has said that he won't be standing for re-election in 2020, so you may be faced with the even more terrifying prospect of Boris Johnson or Theresa May!

Also, for what it is worth, I think that Corbyn will have to convince more than just the members of RailUK to vote for him (although quite a few already would) as (un)fortunately, we don't control the country. He will have to win over a large number of people in rural (in the sense of not urban) areas. Labour typically did well in urban areas, and lost in the rural areas. With the broken voting system we have, Corbyn will have to win over the vast swathes of country which aren't typically populated by younger people, which may be a tall order.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/2015UKElectionMap.svg

 

[miami]

Ps: Cameron has said that he won't be standing for re-election in 2020, so you may be faced with the even more terrifying prospect of Boris Johnson or Theresa May!

I really hope The Fascist Theresa May doesn't get in.Boris may be entertaining, if only for the photo-ops with President Trump.

With the broken voting system we have, Corbyn will have to win over the vast swathes of country which aren't typically populated by younger people, which may be a tall order.

I predict another farcical result where the minority of voters decide who runs the country :roll:

 

[HMS Ark Royal]

I would like to make the strongest objection to the likening of Jeremy Corby to Hitler. This is an unjustifiable slur. Please would you tell everyone when Corby took action that would start a war when he is quite clearly a pacifist. I'm not saying that view of his is necessarily right, but like Hitler. Purleez.

My comparison is that Corbyn wants to reduce the Royal Navy to almost nothing - just like Hitler

He wants to reduce the army into almost nothing - just like Hitler

He wants to reduce the Royal Air Force into little more than a small charter airline - just like Hitler

We know that the Army has put it on record that they will Mutiny if he attempts to cut their numbers down even more. Personally, I shall be most amused if he ever gets in as he will be the first Nuclear Capable Prime Minister of this land that wants to get rid of them, yet he'll still have to write the LOLR

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

We know that the Army has put it on record that they will Mutiny if he attempts to cut their numbers down even more.

You would be happy with that event, then?

 

[ainsworth74]

Personally, I shall be most amused if he ever gets in as he will be the first Nuclear Capable Prime Minister of this land that wants to get rid of them, yet he'll still have to write the LOLR

I imagine he simple won't do so.

 

[HMS Ark Royal]

You would be happy with that event, then?

If it was to remove a government that was going to cut down the armed forces to a size that could no longer serve to defend this country... yes, i believe I would

 

[Smudger105e]

My comparison is that Corbyn wants to reduce the Royal Navy to almost nothing - just like Hitler

He wants to reduce the army into almost nothing - just like Hitler

He wants to reduce the Royal Air Force into little more than a small charter airline - just like Hitler

We know that the Army has put it on record that they will Mutiny if he attempts to cut their numbers down even more.

Oh right. So you prefer Cameron then who has invested heavily in our armed forces? How many aircraft carriers do we have today? How big is the army compared with 100 years ago? How old are our aircraft that are capable of bombing?

And I'm not sure that Corbyn has said he would make further cuts to the armed forces.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

If it was to remove a government that was going to cut down the armed forces to a size that could no longer serve to defend this country... yes, i believe I would

Goodness me! So the UK becomes a military dictatorship! Bit like Egypt or Pakistan where any 'civilian' government has always been looking over their shoulder....

If the UK took a more realistic view of it's place in the world in the 21st century instead of embarking on wars in it's so-called 'national interest' then the size of the armed forces could well be about right (minus Trident, but that's another thread!)

 

[HMS Ark Royal]

Goodness me! So the UK becomes a military dictatorship! Bit like Egypt or Pakistan where any 'civilian' government has always been looking over their shoulder....

If the UK took a more realistic view of it's place in the world in the 21st century instead of embarking on wars in it's so-called 'national interest' then the size of the armed forces could well be about right (minus Trident, but that's another thread!)

That is not what I am saying at all - either the Army does it or the Queen will... And its said she is not too fond of Mr Corbyn

I imagine he simple won't do so.

Which make things interesting if there was a hot one and the Sub captains had no orders

Oh right. So you prefer Cameron then who has invested heavily in our armed forces? How many aircraft carriers do we have today? How big is the army compared with 100 years ago? How old are our aircraft that are capable of bombing?

And I'm not sure that Corbyn has said he would make further cuts to the armed forces.

Simply because what needed huge numbers of people can now be done with smaller sized forces. Yes, I agree the fact we don't have any aircraft carriers as a force projector, but we've not had aircraft carriers since 1985...

 

[ainsworth74]

Which make things interesting if there was a hot one and the Sub captains had no orders

Who says that they'd even be on patrol? But in any event if there is no order they do nothing.

Simply because what needed huge numbers of people can now be done with smaller sized forces. Yes, I agree the fact we don't have any aircraft carriers as a force projector, but we've not had aircraft carriers since 1985...

If your definition of aircraft carrier is that it has cats and traps then it would be 1979 when Ark Royal decommissioned (personally I disagree). Hermes lost hers in the early 1970s during conversion to a Commando Carrier and later gained a ski-jump for Harriers but never sailed with cats and traps after they were removed so it would be Ark Royal leaving the fleet that would be the marker.

 

[47802]

Oh right. So you prefer Cameron then who has invested heavily in our armed forces? How many aircraft carriers do we have today? How big is the army compared with 100 years ago? How old are our aircraft that are capable of bombing?

And I'm not sure that Corbyn has said he would make further cuts to the armed forces.

Yes our Military forces are very much smaller than they used to be but they are still a significant force, but under Corbyn most would likely disappear along with Trident and given Corbyn's dislike of NATO probably our NATO membership as well.

I have voted Labour in the past but on the above basis alone there isn't a cat in hells chance I will vote for a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour Party, i'm not sure it should even be called the Labour party anymore more like the Socialist Workers Party trying to hide under the cloak of a more moderate Labour Party.

As for Oldham I don't see it as being particularly representative, even Labour under Leftie Michael Foot won some byelections but it didn't stop him losing big style at the end of the day.

 

[backontrack]

My comparison is that Corbyn wants to reduce the Royal Navy to almost nothing - just like Hitler

He wants to reduce the army into almost nothing - just like Hitler

He wants to reduce the Royal Air Force into little more than a small charter airline - just like Hitler

We know that the Army has put it on record that they will Mutiny if he attempts to cut their numbers down even more. Personally, I shall be most amused if he ever gets in as he will be the first Nuclear Capable Prime Minister of this land that wants to get rid of them, yet he'll still have to write the LOLR

Cameron wants the Tories to be the only party - just like in North Korea
Theresa May wants to snoop on us - just like in North Korea
Newspapers can only support the right - just like in North Korea
The media is all biased towards the right (even things like the BBC and the Guardian are right-wing) - just like in North Korea
Those against war are 'enemy sympathisers' - just like in North Korea

They may be more severe than us, but are we that different? And how far has the UK come since the 1930s?

 

[Smudger105e]

HMS Illustrious was laid up in 2015, HMS Ark Royal scrapped in 2011 and HMS Invincible was scrapped in 2005.

All were aircraft carriers I believe.

Hardly 1985!

 

[47802]

Cameron wants the Tories to be the only party - just like in North Korea
Theresa May wants to snoop on us - just like in North Korea
Newspapers can only support the right - just like in North Korea
The media is all biased towards the right (even things like the BBC and the Guardian are right-wing) - just like in North Korea
Those against war are 'enemy sympathisers' - just like in North Korea

They may be more severe than us, but are we that different? And how far has the UK come since the 1930s?

Well that's probably better than being annexed by Russia given Mr Putin will able to just walk right in when Corbyn has got rid of our Defence Forces and quit NATO.

 

[ainsworth74]

Cameron wants the Tories to be the only party - just like in North Korea

If you think the other political parties wouldn't love to be the only party then I think that's a bit naive!

Theresa May wants to snoop on us - just like in North Korea

Just like North Korea? Probably not but she's certainly dangerous but then so are most of the rest of them when it comes to things like this. If for no other reason than when it comes to things like the internet they mostly don't understand it.

Newspapers can only support the right - just like in North Korea

Yeah that's just rubbish sorry you're gonna have to give a source me thinks showing the piece of legislation that requires all newspapers to support the right.

The media is all biased towards the right (even things like the BBC and the Guardian are right-wing) - just like in North Korea

You must be on the far far left if you think the Guardian and BBC are right-wing...

Those against war are 'enemy sympathisers' - just like in North Korea

I must have missed that. Though I am aware of certain elements within the Labour party which are applying pressure to people who don't fall lock step behind Corbyn...

They may be more severe than us, but are we that different?

I fear you may not know that much about North Korea if you think that we aren't that different...

And how far has the UK come since the 1930s?

Well we have a Welfare State now as well as the NHS which is nice and something we didn't have back then.

HMS Illustrious was laid up in 2015, HMS Ark Royal scrapped in 2011 and HMS Invincible was scrapped in 2005.

All were aircraft carriers I believe.

Hardly 1985!

Depends on your definition as I alluded to. Personally I'd put it at when we lost the Harriers in 2011 (though an argument be made it was when the Sea Harriers went in 2006 as the GR7 and 9s were unable to engage other aircraft like the FA2s could) rather than when Lusty went.

 

[HMS Ark Royal]

Who says that they'd even be on patrol? But in any event if there is no order they do nothing.



If your definition of aircraft carrier is that it has cats and traps then it would be 1979 when Ark Royal decommissioned (personally I disagree). Hermes lost hers in the early 1970s during conversion to a Commando Carrier and later gained a ski-jump for Harriers but never sailed with cats and traps after they were removed so it would be Ark Royal leaving the fleet that would be the marker.

Well it depends, as you say...

I'd argue that conventional aircraft carriers ended in 1978 when Ark was Reduced prior to her 1979 decommissioning. (As an aside, my father who, by that time worked in shipping, was invited aboard and had a quiet word with the CPO who was the senior person onboard that it might look good if they set fire to some oily rags under the funnel to make it look as if she was under power).

Carrier use ended in 1984 when they retired Hermes

HMS Illustrious was laid up in 2015, HMS Ark Royal scrapped in 2011 and HMS Invincible was scrapped in 2005.

All were aircraft carriers I believe.

Hardly 1985!

Although referred to as carriers, even by the Senior Service, their official titles were "Through-Deck-Crusiers"

 

[ainsworth74]

Carrier use ended in 1984 when they retired Hermes

Going to have to disagree on that the three Invincible's offered nearly exactly the same capabilities as Hermes (slightly smaller air-wings was the main difference) so to say that they were not aircraft carriers but that Hermes was seems disingenuous to me.

 

[HMS Ark Royal]

Going to have to disagree on that the three Invincible's offered nearly exactly the same capabilities as Hermes (slightly smaller air-wings was the main difference) so to say that they were not aircraft carriers but that Hermes was seems disingenuous to me.

After the Falklands, Hermes kept on as an aircraft carrier with Harriers until she was sold to India - at which point carrier use ceased. Technically, the Invincibles were, as I have said, through deck cruisers and not carriers although called that by everybody.

Stretching the term somewhat, "aircraft carrier" could also be applied to that container ship that landed a light aircraft and USS Ohio - a submarine that once had an Apache land on it for refuelling!

 

[ainsworth74]

After the Falklands, Hermes kept on as an aircraft carrier with Harriers until she was sold to India - at which point carrier use ceased. Technically, the Invincibles were, as I have said, through deck cruisers and not carriers although called that by everybody.

As I said I disagree with you on that. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it's a duck! The Invincible's looked like aircraft carriers, were operated as aircraft carriers QED they were aircraft carriers.

Stretching the term somewhat, "aircraft carrier" could also be applied to that container ship that landed a light aircraft and USS Ohio - a submarine that once had an Apache land on it for refuelling!

Only if you want to stretch it to and beyond breaking point.