'Jihadi Jez' headline by Sky News is a disgrace

[HMS Ark Royal]

I've received an email from a member of the Momentum group telling me that if I continue to oppose Jeremy Corbyn then myself and any modest donations that I make are no longer welcome. I've also had all this told to my face by someone who I've never met before. No matter what I may think of Jeremy Corbyn I do not believe for one minute that he wishes to kick anyone out of the party who doesn't agree with him and as such I have no intention of leaving.

They have no legal right to do so

 

[Tetchytyke]

I don't believe that Jeremy Corbyn will lead us to anything other than electoral oblivion. The only way that Labour will ever get into power will be to regain support from Middle England and win back support from UKIP

I agree; I think Labour will struggle to win with Corbyn. It's a shame as I actually agree with a lot of what he says and he's almost enough to make me consider voting Labour for the first time in my life. The main reason why they won't win with Corbyn is because of the way the Tories are in the process of gerrymandering reforming the constituency boundaries to hardwire in a Tory majority make them fairer.

However UKIP are an irrelevance, a political party with one MP (having lost 50% of their MPs at the general election) is simply not relevant in Westminster politics. They're as relevant as the Greens or Sinn Fein. What UKIP do have is great PR, naturally helped by the far-right presenter of the Today programme and ex-BBC political editor Nick "Tory President" Robinson, a man so far to the right he's happy to be involved in photo ops with Britain First.

As for Middle England, bear in mind that the Conservatives only won a majority due to the votes of around 900 people, even though Miliband was (according to the Blairites) a walking policy disaster. They are very fine margins.

The real issue is that the Blairites just want to impose yet more Diet Tory policies. Unless you get a leader with the charisma of Blair then those who want Tory policies will vote Tory not Diet Tory, yet those who don't want Tory policies will either not vote at all or go elsewhere.

Labour's vote collapsed in Scotland because the Scots don't want Tory and they don't want Diet Tory. UKIP and the Greens are gaining popularity because of anger at 30 years of Tory and Blairite policies; UKIP's supporters are not racist, they're just angry.

Labour need to get Scotland back before worrying about Middle England.

And in answer to your earlier post the only reason that Jeremy Corbyn didn't impose the whip is because he was talked out of it by the shadow cabinet. Most of the shadow cabinet feel betrayed by the way in which he has behaved and rightly so.

Most of the shadow Cabinet are just peed off that Corbyn won the leadership election. But they know the membership will just vote him in again if they try and force a leadership election, so they're trying to bully him out of power.

If the likes of Burnham, Cooper and Danczuk don't like Corbyn and, by extension, don't like the people who voted him in on a landslide, then they have two choices: persuade the membership round to their way of thinking, or leave the party. I'd have far more respect for them if they followed the footsteps of the Gang of Four rather than pathetically trying to bully him out of power.

 

[muz379]

However UKIP are an irrelevance, a political party with one MP (having lost 50% of their MPs at the general election) is simply not relevant in Westminster politics. They're as relevant as the Greens or Sinn Fein. What UKIP do have is great PR, naturally helped by the far-right presenter of the Today programme and ex-BBC political editor Nick "Tory President" Robinson, a man so far to the right he's happy to be involved in photo ops with Britain First.

Just qualify this by saying I dislike UKIP and everything they stand for .

But my perception is this is one of the reasons UKIP are gaining such support because people keep writing them off as irrelevant which just further fuels the fire of anti Westminster resentment which is rife among their voters and people considering voting for them .

Sure they lost an MP and only have the one which in parliamentary terms makes them powerless . But their principle aim is to leave the EU . With the EU referendum now definitely happening their army of supporters could get their stated aim without the need for large numbers of MP's or any parliamentary relevance . This would be a massive victory for them

Besides depending on the result in the Oldham and Royton Bi-election they might be about to get another MP

 

[miami]

UKIPs results in the general election was yet another clear sign of the ridiculous system we have.The tories get 37% of the vote and all the power, and ukip get 1 seat off 12% of the vote.

Labours vote actually went up in 2015, despite the drubbing in Scotland. However lib dem voters conspired to punish the lib dems for correctly coalitioning with the tories by giving the tories a majority.

 

[ainsworth74]

Whilst the SNP, by proportion of the popular vote, are also over represented in Parliament. It's a bit of a mess really! FPTP works reasonably well when everyone is voting for two parties (maybe three) but once you've branched out into at least the six or seven parties popular in GB then it really is completly inappropriate.

 

[Oswyntail]

.....However UKIP are an irrelevance, a political party with one MP (having lost 50% of their MPs at the general election) is simply not relevant in Westminster politics. ....

And that is why Labour did not do better at the election. They ignored the fact that UKIP were taking votes in their hinterland, not that of the Conservatives. Until they come to terms with the fact that the "working class" has changed since 1945, they will struggle (and continue to elect romantic but ineffectual leaders).

 

[muz379]

Labours vote actually went up in 2015, despite the drubbing in Scotland. However lib dem voters conspired to punish the lib dems for correctly coalitioning with the tories by giving the tories a majority.

I dont see anything wrong with Voters en masse refusing to vote for a party that has previously gone back on a number of promises and adopted policy stances that the voters do not support . Pre 2010 I would have considered voting for the Lib Dems , not now

 

[Tetchytyke]

And that is why Labour did not do better at the election. They ignored the fact that UKIP were taking votes in their hinterland, not that of the Conservatives.

Labour's share of the vote went up in their "hinterland". Even in Morley, where Ed Balls lost, his share of the vote actually went up, albeit only by half a percentage point.

UKIP aren't taking Labour votes, they're taking BNP votes and (more importantly) Lib Dem votes.

Looking at Oldham & Royton, in 2010 the BNP took 7% of the votes and the Lib Dems took 19%. In 2015 the BNP didn't stand and the Lib Dems' vote collapsed to 3%; UKIP's share went from 3% to 20% but, crucially, Labour's share went from 45% to 55%.

The issue for Labour this time was Scotland. Fear of the SNP influenced people in the English marginals away from Labour; the Murdoch press (supporting the SNP in Scotland and slagging them off in England) knew it would have this effect and support the Conservative vote. The Scottish effect on Labour was far more than the Scottish seats they lost, and that's why I think they need to focus on getting Scotland back first. As it stands, it is looking as though the SNP will keep their majority in Holyrood elections which were designed to prevent a majority government.

The by-election following Meacher's death will be interesting, as by-elections tend to throw up more unusual results.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Whilst the SNP, by proportion of the popular vote, are also over represented in Parliament.

That depends how one defines the popular vote. In Scotland they got 50% of the popular vote, which is a phenomenal achievement, but Scotland only has a population of 5 million.

Regional parties will always have a lower share of the national popular vote by their very nature.

 

[ainsworth74]

That depends how one defines the popular vote. In Scotland they got 50% of the popular vote, which is a phenomenal achievement, but Scotland only has a population of 5 million.

Regional parties will always have a lower share of the national popular vote by their very nature.

True but we're talking about the UK Parliament not the Scottish Parliament so it seems reasonable to consider things on a national scale rather than regional.

 

[Tetchytyke]

True but we're talking about the UK Parliament not the Scottish Parliament so it seems reasonable to consider things on a national scale rather than regional.

Yes and no. Regional parties don't stand in every seat, so they will never get the same share of the vote that national parties do. It's the same deal with the DUP, who are the 4th largest party in Westminster, yet nobody seems to mention them (the cynical would say because the DUP vote with the Tories).

In their local countries they will get a very high share of the popular vote, but their countries are dwarfed by England so their overall share will appear lower.

The SNP took 50% of the popular vote in Scotland in the general election, to clarify.

 

[miami]

Yes and no. Regional parties don't stand in every seat, so they will never get the same share of the vote that national parties do. It's the same deal with the DUP, who are the 4th largest party in Westminster, yet nobody seems to mention them (the cynical would say because the DUP vote with the Tories).

In their local countries they will get a very high share of the popular vote, but their countries are dwarfed by England so their overall share will appear lower.

The SNP took 50% of the popular vote in Scotland in the general election, to clarify.

But they have considerably more than 50% of the Scottish seats - something like 95% of them.

I like the idea of a constituency MP, but I think if votes were weighted on popular vote for the party that would be a better system. This would mean the ukip MPs would control 12% of the power in parliament, and Tory MPs combined would control 37%.

The mystery of the moving votes in 2015 is something never fully explained. I doubt many lib dem voters would have moved to ukip, however 3 million may have moved to labour, and 3 million different labour votes may have moved to ukip. I suspect many lib dems went green, but in places like St Ives all this meant is that the seat went Blue, despite the Conservatives getting a smaller percent of the vote than in 2010 when they lost.

Due to our voting system though, the tories managed to win a lot of ex-lib dem seats while not actually increasing their vote share.

But then I feel lib dem voters never wanted power, far happier to snipe from the back.

 

[ainsworth74]

I like the idea of a constituency MP, but I think if votes were weighted on popular vote for the party that would be a better system. This would mean the ukip MPs would control 12% of the power in parliament, and Tory MPs combined would control 37%.

I quite like STV as that seems to manage a good blend of local representation with a bit more proportionality to the whole thing.

 

[Tetchytyke]

But they have considerably more than 50% of the Scottish seats - something like 95% of them.

True, but that's FPTP for you.

But then I feel lib dem voters never wanted power, far happier to snipe from the back.

I think a lot of people voting Lib Dem were protest voters, forgetting the old rule that it doesn't matter who you vote for, the Government always get in.

The south west is a fascinating case study in idiocy. The Lib Dems have been punished for the actions of the Coalition by, er, voting for the lead party in the coalition instead.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

I've received an email from a member of the Momentum group telling me that if I continue to oppose Jeremy Corbyn then myself and any modest donations that I make are no longer welcome. I've also had all this told to my face by someone who I've never met before. No matter what I may think of Jeremy Corbyn I do not believe for one minute that he wishes to kick anyone out of the party who doesn't agree with him and as such I have no intention of leaving.

Might be a daft question, but how do Momentum know that you oppose Jeremy Corbyn? Have you emailed them and told them?

 

[HMS Ark Royal]

Momentum is not a recognised party or division of Labour, are they? I fail to find any kind of "official" power that says they can say what members can do.

Makes me glad I am joining the OMRP

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

Makes me glad I am joining the OMRP

What's that?

 

[HMS Ark Royal]

Official Monster Raving Looney Party

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

Official Monster Raving Looney Party

Ah, fair enough, but shouldn't it be OMRLP?

 

[HMS Ark Royal]

Yes, but you try typing when one hand is being sat on by an errant toddler

 

[miami]

Yes, but you try typing when one hand is being sat on by an errant toddler

Is that how all the OMRLP meetings are held? Is a toddler compulsory, or can you use a baby?

 

[HMS Ark Royal]

Is that how all the OMRLP meetings are held? Is a toddler compulsory, or can you use a baby?

No, I'm merely babysitting for next doors children - one of which is shouting at me to watch Dora the Explorer.

OMRLP meetings are great - especially the cabinet shuffle which is, oddly enough held in a cabinet - last years was a disaster when the bottom fell out

Rather like Greece

Looking forward to joining the party and standing for them

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

OMRLP meetings are great - especially the cabinet shuffle

That sounds more like a dance routine! Think we're getting off-topic.

Anyway, Cameron has repeated the Sky news headline with the implication that Jeremy Corbyn and his followers are 'terrorist sympathisers'. I find it amazing what that man can get away with.

 

[Amberley54]

That sounds more like a dance routine! Think we're getting off-topic.

Anyway, Cameron has repeated the Sky news headline with the implication that Jeremy Corbyn and his followers are 'terrorist sympathisers'. I find it amazing what that man can get away with.

Well, he convinced enough people at the general election that the world recession was Gordon Browns fault, so looks like he is trying the same con trick again - the louder
he and his friends in the media chant that if you don't support bombing Syria you are a terrorist sympathiser, the more will accept it.

However, I sense the public mood is to stay out of the morass rather than dig ourselves deeper into an intractable situation.

 

[ainsworth74]

However, I sense the public mood is to stay out of the morass rather than dig ourselves deeper into an intractable situation.

I believe polling suggests that it's quite close with a small majority in favour of action. However the non-interventionists seem, from what I've seen, to be shouting the loudest out of the two camps.

 

[Amberley54]

I believe polling suggests that it's quite close with a small majority in favour of action. However the non-interventionists seem, from what I've seen, to be shouting the loudest out of the two camps.

Indeed, and I am proud to count myself amongst them.

 

[Hornet]

I quite like STV as that seems to manage a good blend of local representation with a bit more proportionality to the whole thing.

STV is here in Ireland. You can see from the figures below the shenanigans that go on. Parochial Politics and Nepotism is the order of the day and there is almost continual paralysis in respect to the National picture. (Near collapse of the Health Service, Homelessness and High Property Prices and Rents. Poor Transport Policies etc, etc). At least with FPTP you get decisive Government which, from my view in Dublin, is a better option then the rag bag of bickering buffoons, who cannot make a decision to save their lives, that we have to put up with over here.

The State of the Parties: Dáil Éireann (Irish Parliament)
Last Change: 24 November 2015 (Sean Conlan resigns from Fine Gael)

In the lifetime of any Dáil, parties find their seat numbers falling or rising due to any number of events - deaths, resignations, expulsions and by-elections to name the most frequent. This page will track the state of the parties in Dáil Éireann from now until the next general election.


Fine Gael
2011 GE: 76 seats
November 2015: 67 seats (including Ceann Comhairle)

Fine Gael managed to maintain its seat level for its first two years in Government, the only two reductions occurring because of the election of Sean Barrett as Ceann Comhairle and the resignation of Denis Naughton, both in 2011. The deaths of Seán McEntee in 2012 and Nicky McFadden in 2014 both resulted in by-elections in which Fine Gael held their seats. In July 2013, four TDs lost the party whip after voting against the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Bill. Only one, Brian Walsh, rejoined the party. Creighton and two others formed a new party, Renua Ireland in March 2015.

Blue - Gain, Red - Loss

9 March 2011 - Sean Barrett (Dún Laoghaire) is elected Ceann Comhairle.
7 July 2011 - Denis Naughton (Roscommon-South Leitrim) loses the party whip.
21 December 2012 - Shane McEntee (Meath East) dies.
27 March 2013 - Helen McEntee (Meath East) is elected to take her father's seat.
2 July 2013 - Peter Matthews (Dublin South) loses the party whip.
2 July 2013 - Billy Timmins (Wicklow) loses the party whip.
2 July 2013 - Brian Walsh (Galway West) loses the party whip.
2 July 2013 - Terence Flanagan (Dublin North East) loses the party whip.
11 July 2013 - Lucinda Creighton (Dublin South East) loses the party whip.
25 March 2014 - Nicky McFadden (Longford-Westmeath) dies.
30 April 2014 - Brian Walsh (Galway West) regains the party whip.
24 May 2014 - Gabrielle McFadden (Longford-Westmeath) wins the by-election for her sister's seat.
26 May 2014 - Brian Hayes (Dublin South West) resigns upon election to the European Parliament.
30 October 2014 - Phil Hogan (Carlow-Kilkenny) resigns upon appointment to the European Commission.
24 November 2015 - Sean Conlan (Cavan-Monaghan) resigns from the party.



Labour Party
2011 GE: 37 seats
November 2015: 32 seats

As is typical for the junior party in a coalition, the Labour Party has seen the steepest drop in its popularity according to opinion polls. The party's troubles have been exacerbated by the resignation of several TDs over various issues. Patrick Nulty brought Labour an extra seat in the Dublin West by-election, only to take it away again when he lost the party whip in protest at measures taken in Budget 2012. Willie Penrose, Tommy Broughan, Róisín Shortall and Colm Keaveney each also resigned in protest of different measures taken by the Government, though Penrose rejoined the parliamentary party in October 2013.

29 October 2011 - Patrick Nulty wins the Dublin West by-election.
15 November 2011 - Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath) resigns from the parliamentary party.
1 December 2011 - Tommy Broughan (Dublin North East) loses the party whip.
6 December 2011 - Patrick Nulty (Dublin West) loses the party whip.
26 September 2012 - Róisín Shorthall (Dublin North West) resigns from the parlimentary party.
13 December 2012 - Colm Keaveney (Galway East) loses the party whip.
7 October 2013 - Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath) rejoins the parliamentary party.
28 May 2015 - Michael McNamara (Clare) loses the party whip.
16 September 2015 - Michael McNamara (Clare) regains the party whip.
26 September 2015 - Eamonn Maloney (Dublin South West) resigns from the party.


Fianna Fáil
2011 GE: 19 seats (including Ceann Comhairle)
November 2015: 21 seats

Out of Government and with a vastly depleted contingent of TDs, Fianna Fáil was bound to be less prone to seat changes. Seamus Kirk's tenure as Ceann Comhairle came to an end with the commencement of the 31st Dáil, bringing the party's total up to 20, as he had been automatically re-elected. This increase was temporary however, as the death of Brian Lenihan on 10 June 2011 returned the party to its previous number. Fianna Fáil failed to win the by-election caused by Lenihan's death. It was over two years before the party's next change, when former Labour-turned-Independent TD Colm Keaveney joined the party in December 2013.

9 March 2011 - Seamus Kirk (Cavan-Monaghan) steps down as Ceann Comhairle.
10 June 2011 - Brian Lenihan (Dublin West) dies.
4 December 2013 - Colm Keaveney (Galway East) joins Fianna Fáil, formerly Independent.
23 May 2015 - Bobby Aylward wins the Carlow-Kilkenny by-election.


Sinn Féin
2011 GE: 14 seats
November 2015: 14 seats

Sinn Féin managed just over two years without any change to their parliamentary party membership, until Meath West TD Peadar Toibín was suspended for six months in July 2013 for voting against the party whip on the 2013 abortion legislation. He regained the whip in January 2014.

12 July 2013 - Peadar Tóibín (Meath West) is suspended from the party until January 2014.
24 January 2014 - Peadar Tóibín (Meath West) regains the party whip.





United Left Alliance
2011 GE: 5 seats
Nov 2015: 2 (Socialist Party), 1 (WUAG), 1 (People Before Profit), 1 (Anti-Austerity Alliance)

The United Left Alliance parties had not seen any changes to their totals until August 2012 when Dublin North TD Clare Daly resigned from the Socialist Party. The United Left Alliance is no longer referred to as such in the Dáil. WUAG formally left the alliance in 2012. Paul Murphy of the Anti-Austerity Alliance took the seat vacated by Fine Gael's Brian Hayes in October 2014.

31 August 2012 - Clare Daly (Dublin North) resigns from the Socialist Party.
25 April 2013 - Joan Collins (Dublin South Central) resigns from the People Before Profit Alliance.
24 May 2014 - Ruth Coppinger (Dublin West) wins the by-election to replace Patrick Nulty.
11 October 2014 - Paul Murphy (Dublin South West) wins the by-election to replace Brian Hayes.




Renua Ireland
2011 GE: N/A
November 2015: 3 seats

After a year and a half as independents, former Fine Gael TDs Lucinda Creighton, Billy Timmins and Terence Flanagan announced at the start of 2015 that they would form a new party. Renua Ireland was launched on 13 March. Led by Creighton, Reuna hopes to stand 50-60 candidates in the 2016 general election.

13 March 2015 - Lucinda Creighton (Dublin South East) launches and joins Renua Ireland.
13 March 2015 - Billy Timmins (Wicklow) launches and joins Renua Ireland.
13 March 2015 - Terence Flanagan (Dublin North East) launches and joins Renua Ireland.


Social Democrats
2011 GE: N/A
November 2015: 3 seats

On 15 July 2015, after months of speculation, independent TDs Catherine Murphy, Róisín Shortall and Stephen Donnelly announced the formation of the Social Democrats, a centre-left party preparing to contest the next general election. Their stated aims include abolishing water charges and repealing the 8th Amendment. Independent Senator Katherine Zappone was linked to the party in media reports before its launch, but she has remained independent as she launches her own run for a Dáil seat in the next election.

15 July 2015 - Stephen Donnelly (Wicklow) launches and joins the Social Democrats.
15 July 2015 - Catherine Murphy (Kildare North) launches and joins the Social Democrats.
15 July 2015 - Róisín Shortall (Dublin North West) launches and joins the Social Democrats.


Independents
2011 GE: 14 seats
November 2015: 17 seats

Each of the aforementioned TDs who either resigned from their parties or lost the whips now sit as Independents, bringing the already unusually high number of unaligned TDs from 14 to 23. Patrick Nulty's surprise resignation on 22 March 2014 was the first resignation of a TD from the 31st Dáil.

7 July 2011 - Denis Naughton (Roscommon-South Leitrim) loses the FG whip.
15 November 2011 - Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath) loses the Labour whip.
1 December 2011 - Tommy Broughan (Dublin North East) loses the Labour whip.
6 December 2011 - Patrick Nulty (Dublin West) resigns from the Labour Party.
31 August 2012 - Clare Daly (Dublin North) resigns from the Socialist Party.
26 September 2012 - Róisín Shortall (Dublin North West) resigns from the Labour Party.
13 December 2012 - Colm Keaveney (Galway East) loses the Labour whip.
2 July 2013 - Peter Matthews (Dublin South) loses the FG whip.
2 July 2013 - Billy Timmins (Wicklow) loses the FG whip.
2 July 2013 - Brian Walsh (Galway West) loses the FG whip.
2 July 2013 - Terence Flanagan (Dublin North East) loses the FG whip.
11 July 2013 - Lucinda Creighton (Dublin South East) loses the FG whip.
13 July 2013 - Peadar Tóibín (Meath West) is suspended from the SF parliamentary party.
7 October 2013 - Willie Penrose (Longford Westmeath) rejoins the Labour Party.
4 December 2013 - Colm Keaveney (Galway East) joins Fianna Fáil.
24 January 2014 - Peadar Tóibín (Meath West) regains the Sinn Féin whip.
22 March 2014 - Patrick Nulty (Dublin West) resigns his seat.
30 April 2014 - Brian Walsh (Galway West) regain the Fine Gael whip.
26 May 2014 - Luke "Ming" Flanagan (Roscommon-South Leitrim) resigns upon election to the EP.
13 March 2015 - Lucinda Creighton (Dublin South East) launches and joins Renua Ireland.
13 March 2015 - Billy Timmins (Wicklow) launches and joins Renua Ireland.
13 March 2015 - Terence Flanagan (Dublin North East) launches and joins Renua Ireland.
28 May 2015 - Michael McNamara (Clare) loses the Labour Party whip.
15 July 2015 - Stephen Donnelly (Wicklow) launches and joins the Social Democrats.
15 July 2015 - Catherine Murphy (Kildare North) launches and joins the Social Democrats.
15 July 2015 - Róisín Shortall (Dublin North West) launches and joins the Social Democrats.
26 September 2015 - Eamonn Maloney (Dublin South West) resigns from the Labour Party.
24 November 2015 - Sean Conlan (Cavan-Monaghan) resigns from Fine Gael.

 

[HMS Ark Royal]

Well - looks like the RAF is going for a spot of live target practice!

 

[ainsworth74]

Indeed, and I am proud to count myself amongst them.

Not good news for you then after the vote!

397 in favour and 223 opposed a majority of 174.

Well - looks like the RAF is going for a spot of live target practice!

What would you call what they're doing now in Iraq? This isn't to start action but to extend it to include Syria.

Hornet - Many thanks for the post I will read it and digest and offer some manner of response when I can but there is rather a lot of it!

 

[HMS Ark Royal]

Not good news for you then after the vote!

397 in favour and 223 opposed a majority of 174.



What would you call what they're doing now in Iraq? This isn't to start action but to extend it to include Syria.

Hornet - Many thanks for the post I will read it and digest and offer some manner of response when I can but there is rather a lot of it!

I'd call it training - now it gets real and we can clean up the place

 

[ainsworth74]

I'd call it training - now it gets real and we can clean up the place

Err you are aware that RAF Tornado and drones have been using live ordnance against real targets in Iraq for months now?

And as for cleaning up the place it's going to take a lot more than a few Brimstone missiles. It'll help but it ain't gonna do the job by itself.