Trivia: UK rail line with best case for closure

[JamesRowden]

The Dungeness Branch once Dungeness B nuclear power station closes unless a new power station or industry which requires rail freight is built at the site. There is presently one freight service a week along the line which carries nuclear waste to the North of England. There were proposals for a new nuclear waste processing plant to be built at Dungeness, but Kent County Council blocked the plan.

 

[47802]

Ones that cost a fortune to keep open, generate little revenue and carry few passengers are Inverness to Kyle and Wick/Thurso - Oban/Fort William and Mallaig lines, and central Wales line. - with declining freight Settle-Carlisle line probably loses money hand over fist. Plenty of other lines round the country carry too much fresh air but savings are probably not that extensive from closing them.

Oh that will wind a few people up but your probably quite right though, however given the battle the last time the S&C was proposed for closure it isn't going to happen.

I think your right about the Scottish Lines as well the A9 is much better these days and quicker thanks to the Dornoch Bridge, the first time I drove to Fort William I was surprised by how much quicker it is by road but If you try and close these lines every tree hugger and so called Rail Enthusiast on the planet will come out the wood work. Of course they provide some contribution to Tourism but whether that really compensates for the cost is doubtful.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Ones that cost a fortune to keep open, generate little revenue and carry few passengers are Inverness to Kyle and Wick/Thurso - Oban/Fort William and Mallaig lines, and central Wales line. - with declining freight Settle-Carlisle line probably loses money hand over fist. Plenty of other lines round the country carry too much fresh air but savings are probably not that extensive from closing them.

So you have the figures or are you making a wild guess based conscious/unconscious predujuice?

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Not true, I'm afraid. All the Scottish lines you've mentioned benefit from tourism, and there's quite a bit of usage down the southern half of the Far North Line. (The first train down from Wick is usually quite crowded because of the early ferry from Stromness). The HoWL gets some tourists too, but not nearly as many.

Passenger numbers are something of an irrelevance if you're putting together a business case for closing a line on a pure profit and loss analysis.

The Far North Line and the West Highland Line are so unprofitable, their closure could easily be justified on pure financial terms, regardless of the passenger numbers - they would need so many more additional passengers to make the routes viable, but you wouldn't be able to fit them on the route without significant doubling, platform extensions, and those passengers have to come from somewhere, perhaps by increasing the populations of the settlements en route.

The only ScotRail route which routinely turns a profit is the Edinburgh to Glasgow via Falkirk route, the SPT routes run around break-even and the remaining routes run at a loss, the profit from the E&G covering some of the shortfall, a healthy government subsidy making up the remainder.

 

[deltic]

Not true, I'm afraid. All the Scottish lines you've mentioned benefit from tourism, and there's quite a bit of usage down the southern half of the Far North Line. (The first train down from Wick is usually quite crowded because of the early ferry from Stromness). The HoWL gets some tourists too, but not nearly as many.

One or two trains may be relatively busy but the overall numbers using the lines are trivial given the cost of operating and maintaining them
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So you have the figures or are you making a wild guess based conscious/unconscious predujuice?

Yes I have seen the numbers - there is no prejudice involved

 

[Llanigraham]

Ones that cost a fortune to keep open, generate little revenue and carry few passengers are Inverness to Kyle and Wick/Thurso - Oban/Fort William and Mallaig lines, and central Wales line. - with declining freight Settle-Carlisle line probably loses money hand over fist. Plenty of other lines round the country carry too much fresh air but savings are probably not that extensive from closing them.

Not true, I'm afraid. All the Scottish lines you've mentioned benefit from tourism, and there's quite a bit of usage down the southern half of the Far North Line. (The first train down from Wick is usually quite crowded because of the early ferry from Stromness). The HoWL gets some tourists too, but not nearly as many.

The HoWL also provides a good service in an area that does not have an adequate bus service, and has increasing passenger numbers.

Strikes me there are a few people here who aren't looking at the whole picture!

 

[crehld]

An interesting idea for a thread, The Leeds to Morecambe line between Long Preston and Carnforth could be seen as one as its only used by 5 trains per day in each direction and the most amount of passengers any intermediate station along the line sees per year is 25,000.

Wondered how long it would take for this one to come up. Of course usage figures for this line are far underestimated, being based on tickets sold in board which frequently does not happen. Demand is hampered by the limited service (not the other way around). Despite this passenger numbers, both on through journeys and at intermediate stations have been consistently growing. It provides an important qualitative benefit to the local communities (who aren't well served by other public transport links), some the inaccurately reported quantitative figures mask. Indeed this has been recognized, and the current five services a day is to increase under the new Northern franchise.
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The HoWL also provides a good service in an area that does not have an adequate bus service, and has increasing passenger numbers.

Strikes me there are a few people here who aren't looking at the whole picture!

Indeed. People seem to be relying purely on passenger numbers. Firstly these figures are highly unreliable on rural services. Secondly, many of these service provde a key social benefit to local communities, which can rarely be quantified.

 

[backontrack]

Passenger numbers are something of an irrelevance if you're putting together a business case for closing a line on a pure profit and loss analysis.

The Far North Line and the West Highland Line are so unprofitable, their closure could easily be justified on pure financial terms, regardless of the passenger numbers - they would need so many more additional passengers to make the routes viable, but you wouldn't be able to fit them on the route without significant doubling, platform extensions, and those passengers have to come from somewhere, perhaps by increasing the populations of the settlements en route.

The only ScotRail route which routinely turns a profit is the Edinburgh to Glasgow via Falkirk route, the SPT routes run around break-even and the remaining routes run at a loss, the profit from the E&G covering some of the shortfall, a healthy government subsidy making up the remainder.

One or two trains may be relatively busy but the overall numbers using the lines are trivial given the cost of operating and maintaining them
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Yes I have seen the numbers - there is no prejudice involved

Do either of you support these closures? I'd be interested to know.

 

[deltic]

It depends on what the OP means by best case for closure - a lot of railway lines in financial and economic terms are not worth keeping open. There may be wider social reasons why they should be retained.

The railways as a whole are finance constrained someone has to make the difficult decision is it worth spending £50m a year keeping open a few long rural branch lines that are used by say 1m people a year or spending that money opening 5 new stations which would attract an extra 2.5m people to the railway. I know what I would spend the money on even if it would not be popular to most on this forum.

 

[furnessvale]

Passenger numbers are something of an irrelevance if you're putting together a business case for closing a line on a pure profit and loss analysis.

On that basis many railways could close but don't stop at railways.

Apply the same logic to country roads as Beeching should have been authorised to do.

How about electricity supplies to remote areas while we are at it?

 

[deltic]

On that basis many railways could close but don't stop at railways.

Apply the same logic to country roads as Beeching should have been authorised to do.

How about electricity supplies to remote areas while we are at it?

I have never been able to find out if it is true or not but there is a story that Beeching was asked to look at issues on the road network and he came back with the recommendation that all on-street parking should be banned (something I entirely agree with) - needless to say his views were not asked for again.

Whether you like it or not many would argue rural roads and electricity are essential - rural railways are not - most rural areas dont have them and manage to survive quite nicely.

 

[47802]

On that basis many railways could close but don't stop at railways.

Apply the same logic to country roads as Beeching should have been authorised to do.

How about electricity supplies to remote areas while we are at it?

That old chestnut, the FACT is the in many rural areas roads are the primary form of transport while rail is secondary, and the question is how much is this secondary form of Transport is justified in these areas especially if the money could be spent elsewhere where the rail link has a greater importance due to overcrowded roads.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Do either of you support these closures? I'd be interested to know.

Absolutely not.

The WHL to Fort William provides an essential route to keeping the Lochaber Smelter running, that in turn provides a significant economic benefit to the local economy, whilst the aluminium produced at the very least reduces the amount of aluminium we need to import, as a country, and if it's exported as either a raw product or processed into a Jaguar car or a Rolls-Royce jet engine, we gain from the export credit too.

It's pointless looking at things in total isolation, whether they're a big cog or a tiny little cog, the rural railways do provide some service and benefit to the economy as a whole.

 

[furnessvale]

That old chestnut, the FACT is the in many rural areas roads are the primary form of transport while rail is secondary, and the question is how much is this secondary form of Transport is justified in these areas especially if the money could be spent elsewhere where the rail link has a greater importance due to overcrowded roads.

If the railway is being used because the roads are overcrowded it points to MORE being spent on the railway not diverting cash to roads.

After all it is a FACT that the more the roads are improved the more traffic expands to fill them.

 

[backontrack]

That old chestnut, the FACT is the in many rural areas roads are the primary form of transport while rail is secondary, and the question is how much is this secondary form of Transport is justified in these areas especially if the money could be spent elsewhere where the rail link has a greater importance due to overcrowded roads.

I hope this won't become another debate about 'deluded fantasists'.

 

[PHILIPE]

You have to look at the freight and strategic value of a line as well as passenger use.
The Wrexham-Shotton line has heavy freight, at least for now.
So does Stockport-Stalybridge/Ashton Moss (at least until the Ordsall Chord opens), and is a vital link in the Manchester area.
The Central Wales line has a poor passenger business case, but it is also kept as an emergency route for the Shotton steel traffic.
The weakest business cases will be lines with no freight and no growth potential, together with high renewal costs (embankments, viaducts etc).
Some lines might also work better as light rail or tram-train local routes (eg the Oldham loop).

The Central Wales Line was hardly kept open as a diversionary route for Shotton Steel trains although they have used it.

 

[Gareth Marston]

One or two trains may be relatively busy but the overall numbers using the lines are trivial given the cost of operating and maintaining them
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Yes I have seen the numbers - there is no prejudice involved

real numbers or imaginary numbers from dividing the total cost of the industry by passenger train KM?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I hope this won't become another debate about 'deluded fantasists'.

A reality check for the savings to be made on rural lines brigade is needed, the 1993 Railways Act only got through Parliament after a series of concessions one of which was that the TOC's had to operate trains Adley & Co wanted to stop Beeching 2 by the back door and have succeeded.

So unless you want to unpick the 1993 Railways Act its an academic debate. Having decided that parliamentary time (yes you've had to go to Westminster and the political party's) to do so is a national priority and that the cost of doing so (the Lawyers will be sharpening their invoices) outweighs any savings you might be able to have a go. Then theirs the organized opposition you'll encounter , weighing up whether the political damage it will cause is worth it, rebellions in your party and press etc. SNP/Plaid/Lib Dems and Cons are all the rural parties... Labour isn't so Corbyn re nationalising the railway is your best bet for a level playing field to look at rail closures but of course Jeremy will not want to take the gloss off public ownership by porposing closures....

 

[deltic]

real numbers or imaginary numbers from dividing the total cost of the industry by passenger train KM?

Real disagregated numbers - from what is in the public domain on the ORR website it is also possible to have a pretty good educated guess about potential cost and revenues for many routes

 

[backontrack]

real numbers or imaginary numbers from dividing the total cost of the industry by passenger train KM?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


A reality check for the savings to be made on rural lines brigade is needed, the 1993 Railways Act only got through Parliament after a series of concessions one of which was that the TOC's had to operate trains Adley & Co wanted to stop Beeching 2 by the back door and have succeeded.

So unless you want to unpick the 1993 Railways Act its an academic debate. Having decided that parliamentary time (yes you've had to go to Westminster and the political party's) to do so is a national priority and that the cost of doing so (the Lawyers will be sharpening their invoices) outweighs any savings you might be able to have a go. Then theirs the organized opposition you'll encounter , weighing up whether the political damage it will cause is worth it, rebellions in your party and press etc. SNP/Plaid/Lib Dems and Cons are all the rural parties... Labour isn't so Corbyn re nationalising the railway is your best bet for a level playing field to look at rail closures but of course Jeremy will not want to take the gloss off public ownership by porposing closures....

Are there any closures that you support, and if so which are they?

 

[deltic]

real numbers or imaginary numbers from dividing the total cost of the industry by passenger train KM?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


A reality check for the savings to be made on rural lines brigade is needed, the 1993 Railways Act only got through Parliament after a series of concessions one of which was that the TOC's had to operate trains Adley & Co wanted to stop Beeching 2 by the back door and have succeeded.

So unless you want to unpick the 1993 Railways Act its an academic debate. Having decided that parliamentary time (yes you've had to go to Westminster and the political party's) to do so is a national priority and that the cost of doing so (the Lawyers will be sharpening their invoices) outweighs any savings you might be able to have a go. Then theirs the organized opposition you'll encounter , weighing up whether the political damage it will cause is worth it, rebellions in your party and press etc. SNP/Plaid/Lib Dems and Cons are all the rural parties... Labour isn't so Corbyn re nationalising the railway is your best bet for a level playing field to look at rail closures but of course Jeremy will not want to take the gloss off public ownership by porposing closures....

of course its an academic debate - no-one is suggesting anything else - even the topic is headed "trivia".

 

[Gareth Marston]

The Central Wales Line was hardly kept open as a diversionary route for Shotton Steel trains although they have used it.

We all know its open so that the Mountain troll that lives on Sugar Loaf Mountain can collect his payment for saving Britain in WW2. Once a week a secret train carries a wagon of full of bone meal (his favorite food) to the Sugar Loaf for him to collect.

Well you've always wondered why its still open haven't you?

 

[backontrack]

We all know its open so that the Mountain troll that lives on Sugar Loaf Mountain can collect his payment for saving Britain in WW2. Once a week a secret train carries a wagon of full of bone meal (his favorite food) to the Sugar Loaf for him to collect.

Well you've always wondered why its still open haven't you?

Personally, I'm surprised that the Cambrian Line has a station at Caersws and not at Montgomery. But enough quibbling.

The HoWL has been described as 'unshuttable' because of the high amount of marginal constituencies it runs through.

 

[tsr]

We all know its open so that the Mountain troll that lives on Sugar Loaf Mountain can collect his payment for saving Britain in WW2. Once a week a secret train carries a wagon of full of bone meal (his favorite food) to the Sugar Loaf for him to collect.

Well you've always wondered why its still open haven't you?

The station of which it is asked, "If a CIS system fails in the middle of nowhere, does anyone hear a sound?" - the answer of course being yes, as there will be the inevitable cackle of the fleeing fairy vandals who live on the other side of Sugar Loaf.

Sugar Loaf will only cease to exist when said fairy vandals learn how to use a pneumatic drill. Sadly this part of the country does not feature many miniature pneumatic drill shops, or indeed other, more useful, stores.

 

[Markdvdman]

Closures are a non entity. You can cost the running of them but the price of reopening is scandalous!

Look at the Merthyr line - terrible delays on Friday, but due to BR pulling the dual track from Merthyr to Abercynon, when the loop is not sufficient!

I use the HOWL to Llandybie from Swansea on Fridays - usually busy - yet the train is ALWAYS stopping before Gowerton and NEVER on time!

Arrivas reliability times are rubbish. I have been late at least 10 times in the last month!

 

[backontrack]

The station of which it is asked, "If a CIS system fails in the middle of nowhere, does anyone hear a sound?" - the answer of course being yes, as there will be the inevitable cackle of the fleeing fairy vandals who live on the other side of Sugar Loaf.

Sugar Loaf will only cease to exist when said fairy vandals learn how to use a pneumatic drill. Sadly this part of the country does not feature many miniature pneumatic drill shops, or indeed other, more useful, stores.

Mind you, there are World Bogsnorkelling Championships there.

http://www.green-events.co.uk/events.html?id=57

 

[Gareth Marston]

Personally, I'm surprised that the Cambrian Line has a station at Caersws and not at Montgomery. But enough quibbling.

The HoWL has been described as 'unshuttable' because of the high amount of marginal constituencies it runs through.

That's the accepted version that was supposedly debated at cabinet level in Wilson's Labour government in the mid 60's how many of the seats are still marginal or even on Labours target list now days is debate able.

Caersws's population is larger than Montgomery's and the station is right in the village not 1.5 miles away, plus it serves a railhead for a number of places.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

That's the accepted version that was supposedly debated at cabinet level in Wilson's Labour government in the mid 60's how many of the seats are still marginal or even on Labours target list now days is debate able.

Caersws's population is larger than Montgomery's and the station is right in the village not 1.5 miles away, plus it serves a railhead for a number of places.

Saved by the late (Order - Order !) , George Thomas one gathers - who pointed out that the line went through around 5 "marginal" constituencies - about the most sensible thing the guy did IMHO. (the operating ratio of around 4 to 1 seems a bargain compared to other lines one can think of in the margins of the UK)

 

[Markdvdman]

That's the accepted version that was supposedly debated at cabinet level in Wilson's Labour government in the mid 60's how many of the seats are still marginal or even on Labours target list now days is debate able.

Caersws's population is larger than Montgomery's and the station is right in the village not 1.5 miles away, plus it serves a railhead for a number of places.

Well said Gareth -people are quick to jump at closures and do not see the bigger picture!

 

[backontrack]

Caersws's population is larger than Montgomery's and the station is right in the village not 1.5 miles away, plus it serves a railhead for a number of places.

Thanks, I didn't know.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

4 pages and nobody's mentioned the obvious one, though it does have its own thread...

Newhaven Marine!