Potential disruption due to Hurricane Joaquin

[crispy1978]

Obviously very early days, and a small deviation in wind direction, or various other factors, could change everything completely - but the forecasters are predicting the remnants of Hurricane Joaquin hitting the UK probably on Friday.

The National Hurricane Center link is at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/055336.shtml?5-daynl#contents - it's already battered the Bahamas and is on course for Bermuda.

There could be significant problems on the trains - so watch this space over the next couple of days as it approaches at speed.

 

[najaB]

Obviously very early days, and a small deviation in wind direction, or various other factors, could change everything completely...

From 20 years living the Caribbean - the safest place in the world is at the centre of the five-day track. That's the one place you can be pretty sure the storm won't be!

 

[HowardGWR]

From 20 years living the Caribbean - the safest place in the world is at the centre of the five-day track. That's the one place you can be pretty sure the storm won't be!

Yes, news reporters always refer to the 'eye of the storm' as though this was where the storm was!:roll:

 

[najaB]

I had a quick look at the pressure charts and it's looking likely that ex-hurricane Joaquin will get stalled in the eastern Atlantic by the jet stream making a meander. In that case we will be spared the worst effects.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

I tend to look at the Jetstream Forecast to see what the weather is likely to be although you do need to learn how to interpret it. At the moment it looks like Friday / Saturday should be fairly calm - usual disclaimers apply, of course!

 

[northwichcat]

Seeing this thread reminded me of something I remember hearing Look North weatherman Paul Hudson say on a previous occasion, which was along the lines of "For anyone who's been reading certain tabloids who's expecting extreme weather conditions over the coming few days I can tell you that isn't going to happen and you should know better than relying on tabloids for weather forecasts."

 

[najaB]

Errr... does this forum use a different format for turning links into easier to read text?

As you probably figured out, it's

[URL="http://somesite.com"]Link text[/URL]

The GEM chart does show the remains of Joaquin coming closer than the GFS, but I agree that (at present) it's only a remote risk of disruption.

 

[Class 170101]

The National Hurricane Center link is at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/055336.shtml?5-daynl#contents - it's already battered the Bahamas and is on course for Bermuda.

Won't come here then it will disappear over Bermuda :P

 

[gimmea50anyday]

Seeing this thread reminded me of something I remember hearing Look North weatherman Paul Hudson say on a previous occasion, which was along the lines of "For anyone who's been reading certain tabloids who's expecting extreme weather conditions over the coming few days I can tell you that isn't going to happen and you should know better than relying on tabloids for weather forecasts."

I remember Micheal Fish saying something similar back in 1987.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnxjZ-aFkjs

 

[najaB]

I remember Micheal Fish saying something similar back in 1987.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnxjZ-aFkjs

To give him his due, technically it wasn't a hurricane.

 

[fairysdad]

To give him his due, technically it wasn't a hurricane.

Wasn't there also the fact that the storm that he was saying wasn't going to hit the country wasn't actually the storm that hit the country but a different one that seemed to take most people by surprise?

 

[northwichcat]

I remember Micheal Fish saying something similar back in 1987.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnxjZ-aFkjs

I've not watched your link but I thought the Michael Fish 'no hurricane' claim came about after a trainee meteorologist phoned the Met Office saying she had seen evidence there would be one and the Met Office told her she was wrong. Michael Fish just happened to be the unlucky person who was doing the TV forecasts at the time. If it had been Ian McCaskill or Bill Giles on duty they would have said the same thing.

 

[najaB]

If it had been Ian McCaskill or Bill Giles on duty they would have said the same thing.

Yes they would, because that is what the forecast said at that time of that day. Earlier in the week it had predicted the storm, but that day's forecast said it would track further south. Analysis afterwards showed that the intensity of the storm was due to the (unknown at the time) sting jet phenomenon.

 

[physics34]

There was a storm in 1990 that caught everyone by surprise and caused more fatalities than the 1987 storm.

 

[crispy1978]

Latest imagery showing it heading more towards the continent.

 

[al78]

I've not watched your link but I thought the Michael Fish 'no hurricane' claim came about after a trainee meteorologist phoned the Met Office saying she had seen evidence there would be one and the Met Office told her she was wrong. Michael Fish just happened to be the unlucky person who was doing the TV forecasts at the time. If it had been Ian McCaskill or Bill Giles on duty they would have said the same thing.

The person making that phone call was not referring to the storm that hit the UK, but was inquiring about hurricane Floyd which was threatening southern Florida at the time, and her mother happened to be on holiday there. Thus the "there will be no hurricane" statement was referring to the possibility of Floyd hitting south Florida. Ironically it was partly due to hurricane Floyd that the 87 storm was so strong.
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From 20 years living the Caribbean - the safest place in the world is at the centre of the five-day track. That's the one place you can be pretty sure the storm won't be!

Having analysed the forecast track errors for Atlantic hurricanes over prior 5-year periods I can confirm that this statement is not true. Yes the probability of a direct hit if you are under the five day forecast point is very low but it is not low for 24 or 48 hour forecasts. The forecast track can be considered the most likely track the storm will take.

 

[najaB]

Having analysed the forecast track errors for Atlantic hurricanes over prior 5-year periods I can confirm that this statement is not true. Yes the probability of a direct hit if you are under the five day forecast point is very low but it is not low for 24 or 48 hour forecasts. The forecast track can be considered the most likely track the storm will take.

I didn't think an emoticon was necessary to indicate that my statement wasn't to be taken as an irrefutable statement of fact. However, even in disputing it you have made exactly the same point that I did: 120 hour forecast positions of tropical cyclones are exceedingly unreliable. I never said anything about 24 or 48 hour forecasts.

The OP was predicting disruption 144 plus hours in the future - I stand by my contention that it was too early to give any credence any prediction of doom that far out.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The person making that phone call was not referring to the storm that hit the UK, but was inquiring about hurricane Floyd which was threatening southern Florida at the time, and her mother happened to be on holiday there.

Mr. Fish's explanation of the statement he made at the start of the broadcast has apparently changed over the years. At one point he gave the story you refer to, on another occasion he is supposed to have said that there was no call at all.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Won't come here then it will disappear over Bermuda :P

Isn't Bermuda a district of Nuneaton that is still waiting for its new railway station of Bermuda Park to open??

 

[crispy1978]

Now forecast significantly south, due to hit Portugal but only as an extra tropical depression.

The U.K. forecast looked interesting when I saw it this morning though, they didn't look sure on the forecast Friday onwards due to a jet stream.

 

[Groningen]

Well this could be nice. Is the Atlantic still warm?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic/joaquin-2015