Hypothetical scenario where car usage massively declines

[Bletchleyite]

Why not start one?

 

[DarloRich]

I find this interesting. Would we see even more people moving to big(ger) cities to move around? Thus causing even more congestion on the heavy rail systems there that are harder to upgrade?

eg: most people in London wouldn't be affected too badly, those that drive may have a slightly longer bus/rail route in the vast majority of cases.

However, those in smaller towns with a huge dependency on driving and very bad urban design (huge sprawling industrial/business parks for example and no real public transport infrastructure would be very badly affected. Would people move en masse to the cities to find employment and housing well connected? Thus causing even more demand on infrastructure there?

IN the real world i think people would move - in the ideal world you would create a network of interdependent, connecting, public transport services to transport people from outlying communities to the centre.

in any event you would need much higher infrastructure & "rolling stock" investment

 

[Doctor Fegg]

These distances are walkable but people still use cars even if they live in or around this core area. (Lots of people do shopping in the centre using cars even if they live on the relatively central estates)

Those are the journeys we have to capture.

Relatively short journeys that cannot be practically done on bicycle or walking since they often involve carrying significant loads.

It's a provincial thing, if you'll excuse the word. The cycling experience in medium-sized towns is far, far worse than in a typical city. I used to work in Burton-on-Trent, a fairly similar size town to Grantham, and the roads were truly terrible for cyclists. Taxi drivers drove as if you weren't there, road redevelopments took place which made conditions significantly more hostile for cycling, and that was just how it was. Other "provincial" towns are similar (Banbury, Kidderminster, Evesham are three that spring to mind).

No-one is going to cycle in those conditions. But that's not to say the conditions can't be improved.

"Significant loads" are a minority case and fairly easily fixable - firstly by stores offering free delivery services, and secondly by rebalancing offers away from bulk purchase. I screamed every time Sainsburys in Burton offered a multibuy on 2x24 cans of Coke. How the devil am I meant to fit that on my pannier rack?

 

[DarloRich]

It's a provincial thing, if you'll excuse the word. The cycling experience in medium-sized towns is far, far worse than in a typical city. I used to work in Burton-on-Trent, a fairly similar size town to Grantham, and the roads were truly terrible for cyclists. Taxi drivers drove as if you weren't there, road redevelopments took place which made conditions significantly more hostile for cycling, and that was just how it was. Other "provincial" towns are similar (Banbury, Kidderminster, Evesham are three that spring to mind).

No-one is going to cycle in those conditions. But that's not to say the conditions can't be improved.

"Significant loads" are a minority case and fairly easily fixable - firstly by stores offering free delivery services, and secondly by rebalancing offers away from bulk purchase. I screamed every time Sainsburys in Burton offered a multibuy on 2x24 cans of Coke. How the devil am I meant to fit that on my pannier rack?

we are spoiled in MK for cycling with the red routes and canal tow path. They are safe and segregated from traffic ( mostly) - it is only my laziness that prevents me cycling to work everyday

As for Sainsburys - why not get them to do the heavy work and deliver it for you

 

[Bletchleyite]

"Significant loads" are a minority case and fairly easily fixable - firstly by stores offering free delivery services

Not overly likely - the delivery services, good though they are, are a game of one-upmanship and are apparently not profitable. That said, even if they charged £10 on a £200 shop, say, I would still use them, the convenience gain is massive.

and secondly by rebalancing offers away from bulk purchase. I screamed every time Sainsburys in Burton offered a multibuy on 2x24 cans of Coke. How the devil am I meant to fit that on my pannier rack?

Have you ever considered switching to one of the German supermarkets, e.g. Aldi/Lidl? They don't really do multibuys, concentrating on having one of each product at a sensible price.
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we are spoiled in MK for cycling with the red routes and canal tow path. They are safe and segregated from traffic ( mostly) - it is only my laziness that prevents me cycling to work everyday

Agreed. They're as close to Dutch provision as you get in the UK. People call it the city of the car, which it is (it's very difficult to serve effectively by public transport, which is why it has a somewhat basic bus service), but it is also the city of the bicycle and of walking, if people can get their heads around the idea that the Redways do not have a crime problem, it's just perceived, and that they are genuinely at more risk crossing 60/70mph roads on the level than using the bridges and underpasses provided.

Now imagine that you built a version of MK around a "beads on a string" or radial model with excellent public transport (perhaps tram) from day one - it would be a fascinating experiment. I'd give it a go! I suppose Runcorn is that place, but the problem with that has long been the rather different economics of New Towns away from London meaning they tend to be slightly less nice places to live.

As for Sainsburys - why not get them to do the heavy work and deliver it for you

I've not set foot in a large supermarket for months since I started using the delivery service of Tesco.

 

[jopsuk]

The MK red routes are rather slated by Dutch design experts- rightly- as they were designed only as footpaths.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The MK red routes are rather slated by Dutch design experts- rightly- as they were designed only as footpaths.

They aren't perfect in their design, but provided people use them properly (the Council publishes the Redway Code that explains how to treat them - essentially like car-free country lanes) they are much, much better than cycling on the road for everyone except fast road cyclists, who are always better on the road anyway and can ride with confidence on the fast dual carriageways.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Not overly likely - the delivery services, good though they are, are a game of one-upmanship and are apparently not profitable. That said, even if they charged £10 on a £200 shop, say, I would still use them, the convenience gain is massive.

Indeed. Supermarkets have to soak up the losses on them because otherwise they lose the whole basket to a competitor that does provide delivery. So as and when cities become more confident about restricting private car use - as we're starting to see - then the delivery services will be there to provide an alternative.

Have you ever considered switching to one of the German supermarkets, e.g. Aldi/Lidl? They don't really do multibuys, concentrating on having one of each product at a sensible price.

Happily I no longer work in the armpit of a town that is Burton-on-Trent, and can walk to the Co-op about 250 yards from my house... several times a day if need be. But a good suggestion.