Overcrowding - could it be due to migration into this country?

[trainophile]

Perversely, the improvements in motor transport, being bigger, faster, more computerised, have made the roads quite intimidating for anyone except the most confident drivers.

When there were fewer cars on the roads, and people spent their weekends tinkering under the bonnet, driving could be considered an enjoyable practice. I'm not a bit surprised that these days many people prefer the comparative relaxation of being transported around without the worry of being in control of a large metal box, and at the mercy of the behaviour of all the other large metal box users on the roads. Also the distances that people are prepared to travel to work have increased, and it has to be quicker by train than car in most cases.

Besides, someone above mentioned that young people would rather have an iPhone - well in a way that is a good point, as I think that generally our attention span has declined since the advent of the digital age, and concentrating on the road nowadays goes against some people's natural inclinations, especially the young.

This doesn't address the OP's question about immigration, but it could help to explain the increase in train usage generally.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Younger people are not rushing out to learn to drive (as I did at age 17) - my own 3 aged 18/21/23 have licenses (good ID) - but only one has had lessons and has not sat the test yet. They get by on public transport and Mum's / Dad's taxi - paid cabs and will often walk quite long distances.

In terms of migrants and traffic - certain parts of inner / Zone 2 London are now more heavily populated than say in 1980's London where population was at an all time low - now a recharging of the areas leads to many more travellers. Not just migrants but "new Londoners" from the rest of the UK - searching for work and opportunity....

 

[6Gman]

Is overcrowding due to migration? [the question posed by the OP] - NO

Has migration contributed to overcrowding? - YES

Along with people getting larger, people being reluctant to sit next to strangers, and people having sex.

 

[trainophile]

... and people retiring in greater numbers than previously (baby boomers), and living longer and staying more active once retired.

Huge percentages of my fellow rail passengers are Senior Railcard holders, generally travelling for something to do! (I include myself in that .)

 

[6Gman]

... and people retiring in greater numbers than previously (baby boomers), and living longer and staying more active once retired.

Huge percentages of my fellow rail passengers are Senior Railcard holders, generally travelling for something to do! (I include myself in that .)

Indeed. General affluence.

e.g. it seems impossible to board a Friday or Saturday train to the likes of Liverpool, Manchester or Blackpool without encountering at least one stag/ hen party. A market which didn't exist 30 years ago, when a stag night meant a tour of local pubs. Usually.

 

[StarCrossing]

This discussion has mainly been about whether migration has had a negative impact or a neutral impact on the railways. How about the positive impacts of migration? I'm rather tempted to start a thread on "Services are being improved in my local area due to increased passenger numbers. Should immigrants get the credit?" in retaliation!

 

[matt_world2004]

Wouldn't the congestion charge, fuel prices, housing prices in major urban areas expansion of concessionary travel schemes to include rail be a major driving force behind overcrowding.

 

[Tracked]

Is overcrowding due to migration? [the question posed by the OP] - NO

Has migration contributed to overcrowding? - YES

Along with people getting larger, people being reluctant to sit next to strangers, and people having sex.

Migration's contributed to all those things as well? blimey ...

*gets coat*

carry on ...

 

[najaB]

Many, if not all black people consider it offensive to be called coloured, not that this appears to be a concern of yours.

Hmm... making a general statement about a racial group. It's many or some, by the way, because it doesn't bother me.

 

[Robertj21a]

I concur. However 455driver was suggesting that it was easy to identify whether an individual was from Eastern Europe purely on looks.

Having travelled around much of Eastern Europe I would agree with 455driver that it is indeed now quite easy to guess whether or not an individual is from, say, Poland/CZ/LT/LV rather than the UK - I couldn't however fine-tune it to say from which specific country they're from, until they speak !

 

[bramling]

This discussion has mainly been about whether migration has had a negative impact or a neutral impact on the railways. How about the positive impacts of migration? I'm rather tempted to start a thread on "Services are being improved in my local area due to increased passenger numbers. Should immigrants get the credit?" in retaliation!

If only that was the case, many rail services have stayed the same or, at best, not kept pace with increasing demand - hence overcrowding. Generally rail travel isn't as pleasant now as it was in the 1990s, largely due to overcrowding. It doesn't just mean busier trains, but all the associated issues, for example more services on an overcrowded infrastructure so for example leading to slower schedules. On my local line most trains were timed to reach London in about 27 mins, now most trains take over 30.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Having travelled around much of Eastern Europe I would agree with 455driver that it is indeed now quite easy to guess whether or not an individual is from, say, Poland/CZ/LT/LV rather than the UK - I couldn't however fine-tune it to say from which specific country they're from, until they speak !

Look at those peoples who decided to settle in England after the Romans left. Angles, Saxons, Jutes, Frisians, Vikings, Normans, etc. We are a mix of many peoples.

 

[StateOfPlay]

Commuting on my line has increased dramatically over the last few years, not a direct consequence of immigration. As property prices in Greater London have increased beyond the reach of the average London worker, people have moved further away to get a nice property and are choosing to commute. So my trains are busier, but not with immigrants, with UK citizens who have moved out of Greater London to Bedfordshire. They are halfway through building 2400 new houses in my town, a proportion of those new residents will be from Greater London.

Bear in mind, there are over 3 million commuters a day in London. I am sure many of them are immigrants, but they are commuting to a job, so they add to our economy.

in answer to the opening question, yes immigration does increase the demand for public transport, just don't ask me to put a figure on it.

 

[Bald Rick]

Look at those peoples who decided to settle in England after the Romans left. Angles, Saxons, Jutes, Frisians, Vikings, Normans, etc. We are a mix of many peoples.

Yeah, but what have they done for us?

 

[najaB]

Yeah, but what have they done for us?

You mean apart from better sanitation and medicine and education and irrigation and public health and roads and a freshwater system and baths and public order?

 

[bramling]

Commuting on my line has increased dramatically over the last few years, not a direct consequence of immigration. As property prices in Greater London have increased beyond the reach of the average London worker, people have moved further away to get a nice property and are choosing to commute. So my trains are busier, but not with immigrants, with UK citizens who have moved out of Greater London to Bedfordshire. They are halfway through building 2400 new houses in my town, a proportion of those new residents will be from Greater London.

Bear in mind, there are over 3 million commuters a day in London. I am sure many of them are immigrants, but they are commuting to a job, so they add to our economy.

in answer to the opening question, yes immigration does increase the demand for public transport, just don't ask me to put a figure on it.

The massive increase in property prices in London is at least partly due to immigration. There's little doubt about that, it's basic supply and demand.

 

[tivoli]

My parents came to the UK from Ireland in the 1930s. may dad was one of the many Irish people who helped build railways particularly the London Underground. If they hadn't come, would our infrastructure have been built and weren't many from the Caribbean encouraged to come here to service the transport system.

It seems to me the main problem is the continuing attraction of London as a place of work, it could be argued that despite the benefits Crossrail and Thameslink projects will draw even more people into the capital wherever they have come from.

 

[phil beard]

My original heading for this thread was "Overcrowding - a reason why never mentioned" was changed by the moderator as it was thought that my question appeared too vague. By my original title, I just wanted to ask why it was that the influx of large numbers of migrants in recent years parallels the massive increase in numbers of people using public transport. However, for all the many other reasons given, migration never seems to be cited as one of those reasons for the increase.

Migration is one of those contentious issues that causes outbursts from right (too many, send them home) and left (where one is decried as racist just for mentioning the subject but where they offer no answer to the issue). Where does migration go from here? One cannot take in the whole of the population from countries where there is conflict but, on the other hand, one cannot closes one's eyes and put up the shutters and say no more.

 

[Blamethrower]

My original heading for this thread was "Overcrowding - a reason why never mentioned" was changed by the moderator as it was thought that my question appeared too vague. By my original title, I just wanted to ask why it was that the influx of large numbers of migrants in recent years parallels the massive increase in numbers of people using public transport. However, for all the many other reasons given, migration never seems to be cited as one of those reasons for the increase.

Migration is one of those contentious issues that causes outbursts from right (too many, send them home) and left (where one is decried as racist just for mentioning the subject but where they offer no answer to the issue). Where does migration go from here? One cannot take in the whole of the population from countries where there is conflict but, on the other hand, one cannot closes one's eyes and put up the shutters and say no more.

Actually, judging by some of the responses on here, you sure can close your eyes and pretend that nothing is happening. We have a few immigration deniers on here :roll:

I am happy for people to have a healthy debate about this issue, the problem lies with people who just don't think that there is a problem with overcrowding and over-population. Trying to convince someone who has their head in the sand is the most futile exercise in the world, just forget it. There is no debate with these people - unfortunately, this means most of the ruling classes.

My take is that population increase is absolutely fine if you include an infrastructure plan to support it. Electricity, water, gas, roads, railways, etc etc.

Due to the many years of under-funding and ineptitude from various governments and councils, we have an infrastructure that is fragmented, poorly maintained and seemingly idiotically designed. Then the more jobs are created in London, the more investment gets sucked out of the rest of the country.

Devolving planning power to the regions needs to happen before any progress can be made on this. eg Why should Whitehall have to sanction a bypass for a village in the midlands?

 

[67018]

I am happy for people to have a healthy debate about this issue, the problem lies with people who just don't think that there is a problem with overcrowding and over-population. Trying to convince someone who has their head in the sand is the most futile exercise in the world, just forget it. There is no debate with these people - unfortunately, this means most of the ruling classes.

Well, you have to differentiate between people who don't listen to your arguments, and those who just disagree with them.

Due to the many years of under-funding and ineptitude from various governments and councils, we have an infrastructure that is fragmented, poorly maintained and seemingly idiotically designed. Then the more jobs are created in London, the more investment gets sucked out of the rest of the country.

Governments often don't cover themselves in glory in this respect, but surely the issue here is that population growth at current levels is a relatively recent phenomenon. A quick look at some statistics suggests the population rise in the last 15 years has been comparable to that of the previous 40. I don't recall anyone seeing that coming. And, at the risk of repeating myself, London's population has only just got back to what it was in 1939.

A combination of population growth, more travel, and more of that travel being by rail is certainly a challenge. Although potentially no worse than a stagnant, ageing population with a shrinking tax base making it harder to maintain the infrastructure that's there.

 

[Robertj21a]

Actually, judging by some of the responses on here, you sure can close your eyes and pretend that nothing is happening. We have a few immigration deniers on here :roll:

I am happy for people to have a healthy debate about this issue, the problem lies with people who just don't think that there is a problem with overcrowding and over-population. Trying to convince someone who has their head in the sand is the most futile exercise in the world, just forget it. There is no debate with these people - unfortunately, this means most of the ruling classes.

My take is that population increase is absolutely fine if you include an infrastructure plan to support it. Electricity, water, gas, roads, railways, etc etc.



Due to the many years of under-funding and ineptitude from various governments and councils, we have an infrastructure that is fragmented, poorly maintained and seemingly idiotically designed. Then the more jobs are created in London, the more investment gets sucked out of the rest of the country.

Devolving planning power to the regions needs to happen before any progress can be made on this. eg Why should Whitehall have to sanction a bypass for a village in the midlands?

I'm not disagreeing with you at all but it's not really surprising that many people in the UK may struggle with the notion that there is over-crowding and over-population. Apart from London and a few major cities, I'm not sure that I would consider much else in the UK to be significantly overcrowded or overpopulated, so a good proportion of the population probably don't see the problem.

It's not really a 'head in the sand' mentality, they simply have no evidence of the problem in their everyday lives and, for many, it may never affect them (directly).

 

[Tetchytyke]

I am happy for people to have a healthy debate about this issue, the problem lies with people who just don't think that there is a problem with overcrowding and over-population. Trying to convince someone who has their head in the sand is the most futile exercise in the world, just forget it. There is no debate with these people - unfortunately, this means most of the ruling classes.

Disagreeing with you doesn't mean one has their "head in the sand". It just means they think you're wrong.

I have yet to see much evidence that this country is "overcrowded" or "over-populated".

Even in London, there are at least 22,000 empty properties, and that is just the number of properties declared as unoccupied; it doesn't include properties which are used once in a blue moon as a pied a terre. The number of empty properties in one London borough- Kensington and Chelsea- has gone up 40% in the last couple of years. And as 67018 points out, the population of London is still lower than it was before World War Two.

Outside of London, there are nearly 750,000 empty properties.

Migration Watch- an anti-immigration pressure group- state that the net migration is about 300,000 a year. It's not a huge number, really.

 

[Johnuk123]

Migration Watch- an anti-immigration pressure group.

They're not anti-immigration at all as they state on their website they welcome it. They are in favour of managed and sustainable migration something which we don't have in any shape or form.

 

[Rapidash]

The main issue I have with those who are so against immigration is the same issue I have with NIMBY's. If you go through the home counties, you'll notice that not only is there a green belt, but also a green hat, trousers, shoes and suit and tie. Miles, and MILES of Absolutely Nothing.

It's not all farmland either, but because a few wealthy land owners hold sway, and villagers are terrified of anyone who doesn't have a triple barrel surname, nothing gets built in the south east in sufficient numbers.

Yes, somehow, in Devon, in an equally green and pleasant land, multiple new towns are being built, as well as in Dorset. The only difference is that nobody gives a toss about annoying yokels living near Exeter or Plymouth.

Sure immigrations an issue when integration doesn't run smoothly, and it increases demand for services. But then so does childbirth and retirement.

 

[radamfi]

Greater London lost a lot of population between the 50s and 80s, but most of them would have moved to the surrounding counties which saw huge expansion, including the development of many new towns.

The population of the South East statistical region (which does not include Hertfordshire and Essex which are part of the East of England region) shows rapid growth during the time of the London exodus, with growth slowing after 1980.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_East_England

Population losses were also seen in other major conurbations. Since 1990, living in cities has become "cool" again hence the repopulation of London, Manchester and some other places by young incomers from around the country and elsewhere.

Birth rates throughout the western world have plummeted and most developed countries would be seeing falling population without immigration. Japan, which doesn't have much immigration, is already seeing significant population loss. Germany is also at great risk of population falls in the near future as their birth rate recently dropped to the lowest in the world, possibly leading them to be very welcoming to refugees at the moment.

Given that immigrants use public transport more than the average UK resident, it probably isn't that unreasonable to suggest that there might not have been such an impetus to expand the railways so much without the additional patronage. But there is clear evidence that non-immigrants are using trains a lot more and are a bigger factor in the decision to buy more trains and increase track capacity. I think the impact on buses is greater than on trains given immigrants are more likely to be in lower paid jobs and travelling more locally. So you could say that bus cuts might have been even worse without immigration.

 

[Blamethrower]

Disagreeing with you doesn't mean one has their "head in the sand". It just means they think you're wrong.

I have yet to see much evidence that this country is "overcrowded" or "over-populated".

Migration Watch- an anti-immigration pressure group- state that the net migration is about 300,000 a year. It's not a huge number, really.

I think that you are a prime candidate for the "head in the sand" mentality. 300,000, every year, essentially a city is arriving in this country and you don't think that is a huge number?

My good man, please let me know when you DO think there will be a problem?

As someone who drives and uses trains regularly since the 90's there is clear evidence that this country is over-populated and over-crowded. Of course there are plenty of fields but you do know what cattle and crops are don't you?

 

[reb0118]

Too many rainy days? Immigrants stole the sunshine.

This is so true - I knew there must have been a correlation. Is this due to dark skinned immigrants absorbing more of our sunshine, and more importantly does Farage know and what is he doing about it!.......

Just a quick question, as a train driver who I'm guessing has little interaction with your passengers how can you differentiate between a white English person and a white eastern European person purely on looks?

Actually, it is probably not that hard. I'm even managing to differentiate between Lithuanians, Poles, & Czechs.

 

[Rapidash]

I think that you are a prime candidate for the "head in the sand" mentality. 300,000, every year, essentially a city is arriving in this country and you don't think that is a huge number?

My good man, please let me know when you DO think there will be a problem?

As someone who drives and uses trains regularly since the 90's there is clear evidence that this country is over-populated and over-crowded. Of course there are plenty of fields but you do know what cattle and crops are don't you?

75% of the UK is farmland, and we only manage to produce about 60% of what we consume. We started on that path along time ago, with little opportunity to change it, short of shooting everyone when they turn 65.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I think that you are a prime candidate for the "head in the sand" mentality. 300,000, every year, essentially a city is arriving in this country and you don't think that is a huge number?

300,000 people is 0.46% of the UK's population. It's a tiny number.

If they all moved to the same town then you might have an argument for localised overcrowding, but they don't, so you don't.

As someone who drives and uses trains regularly since the 90's there is clear evidence that this country is over-populated and over-crowded.

Road traffic numbers are higher because of the number of multi-car families- there is now an average of 0.6 cars per adult, up from 0.54 in 1995 (which equates to another 3.2 million cars on the road)- not because of a slight increase in population size due to net migration.

Of course there are plenty of fields but you do know what cattle and crops are don't you?

There are 750,000 empty houses in the UK. There's plenty to go around.

 

[Rapidash]

This BBC article about 'Urban' Britain from a few years back may help some people understand the confusion of why some of think the UK isnt full.