London Midland/Northern EMU changes speculation

[northwichcat]

According to a poster on wnxx LM are apparently set to get another 11 x 319s as part of the Direct Award, on top of the 7 they've already agreed to take on.

If they take on the Northern 323s and TPE 350/4s as well that will mean 38 additional trains, while they have 37 x 350/2s. While the 323s are 3 car, they have 23.5m carriages so I would imagine have as many (if not more) standard class seats than a 350/2 but would lack the FC.

 

[Bletchleyite]

According to a poster on wnxx LM are apparently set to get another 11 x 319s as part of the Direct Award, on top of the 7 they've already agreed to take on.

Any hint of that being in exchange for anything, or is it to allow all peak trains to be 12-car and all Trent Valley trains 8, both of which would be most welcome?

 

[Bletchleyite]

My other reply would be better here than in the other thread, so here goes... is there any talk in there about whether that's to replace anything (e.g. 350/2s) or if it's additional stock to allow 12-car peak workings of all trains plus 8-car all day on the Trent Valley?

 

[northwichcat]

Any hint of that being in exchange for anything, or is it to allow all peak trains to be 12-car and all Trent Valley trains 8, both of which would be most welcome?

No just the mention of LM securing more 319s and the follow up suggestion that the numbers would add up for LM releasing 350/2s, which follows on what was already being discussed in the thread. I think it's posted by the same person who first posted about LM getting 319s as class 321 replacements.

 

[northwichcat]

My other reply would be better here than in the other thread, so here goes... is there any talk in there about whether that's to replace anything (e.g. 350/2s) or if it's additional stock to allow 12-car peak workings of all trains plus 8-car all day on the Trent Valley?

I replied to your post in the other thread, the short answer is we don't know for certain.

 

[DarloRich]

My other reply would be better here than in the other thread, so here goes... is there any talk in there about whether that's to replace anything (e.g. 350/2s) or if it's additional stock to allow 12-car peak workings of all trains plus 8-car all day on the Trent Valley?

hopefully the second although I fear the first!

 

[Bletchleyite]

hopefully the second although I fear the first!

LM in the past have usually done well at arguing for additional rolling stock (they weren't originally to have retained the 321s at all) so I do hope for the second as well.

 

[northwichcat]

LM in the past have usually done well at arguing for additional rolling stock (they weren't originally to have retained the 321s at all) so I do hope for the second as well.

An alternative idea could be LM get 11 x 319s plus the 17 x Northern 323s and release some of their 350/2s to Northern as 323 replacement, so LM expands their EMU fleet even if the average age of EMU is older.

Then when the next LM franchise is let it involves cascades to make fleets more consistent (more EMUs including 350/4s to LM and more 350/2s to Northern.)

 

[158722]

An alternative idea could be LM get 11 x 319s plus the 17 x Northern 323s and release some of their 350/2s to Northern as 323 replacement, so LM expands their EMU fleet even if the average age of EMU is older.

Then when the next LM franchise is let it involves cascades to make fleets more consistent (more EMUs including 350/4s to LM and more 350/2s to Northern.)

Agreed, but in the meantime that could change the dynamics of the LM fleet a bit, with only a certain number of turns those extra 323s can be used on to replace 350s (the 4 on Walsall-Wolves being the obvious ones).

As you say, as a first stage those 11x 319s plus the 4 Walsall 350s displaced by 323s might just be enough to allow LM to send 17 350/2s to Northern as like for like replacements for the 323s.

 

[DarloRich]

I HOPE LM don't have to give up the 350/2 considering the amount we pay for season tickets i feel we should have the benefit of newer and better stock

 

[Bletchleyite]

I HOPE LM don't have to give up the 350/2 considering the amount we pay for season tickets i feel we should have the benefit of newer and better stock

I dunno...if we got the /4s, they were always used on trains I wanted to use, and the First Class remained 2+1, they might well get a bit of *extra* revenue from me.

I would pay extra for 2+1 First Class. I've told LM that before.

 

[DarloRich]

I dunno...if we got the /4s, they were always used on trains I wanted to use, and the First Class remained 2+1, they might well get a bit of *extra* revenue from me.

I would pay extra for 2+1 First Class. I've told LM that before.

but the 350/2 SHOULD ( i know i know i know :roll be on the inner suburban and MK/Northampton stoppers

 

[northwichcat]

I HOPE LM don't have to give up the 350/2 considering the amount we pay for season tickets i feel we should have the benefit of newer and better stock

Well the 350/4s are both newer and better than the 350/2s.

The problem with saying "I pay more" is the same trains carry different flows. Up here commuters from Bolton always seem to be saying how they've been short changed in recent years, yet they get PTE subsided fares, regular direct services in to all 4 central Manchester stations with some services being operated by modern Desiros, compare that with Buxton* and they don't look like they're being short changed at all or compare with Northwich** and it looks like the Bolton commuters have luxury. However, despite Bolton commuters getting more for less it wouldn't be fair to put 142s on Barrow-Manchester via Bolton services because of how much the people who get on in Cumbria/Lancashire would be paying.

* Just over an hour from Manchester by train. Services operated by 150s and 156s, up to every 30 minutes at peak times.
** Just over an hour from Manchester by train. Services operated by 142s and 150s with a 68 minute gap between evening peak departures from Manchester.

 

[WatcherZero]

Im not sold on the 350/2 being the objective at the moment, it seems rather a convoluted cascading theory.

 

[A0]

I HOPE LM don't have to give up the 350/2 considering the amount we pay for season tickets i feel we should have the benefit of newer and better stock

+1 from me - Northampton - London on any Desiro is infinitely preferable to the same journey on a 321. A 319 won't be any better.

Some posters (Neil Williams) for example appear to be looking forward to the prospect of 319s and the replacement of the 350/2s - I suspect he's in the minority.....

If LM can't keep the 350/2s on certain workings, there isn't a hope in hell that the 319s will stay on the right workings..... though it'll be interesting to see how one fares going via Weedon to Rugby......
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Im not sold on the 350/2 being the objective at the moment, it seems rather a convoluted cascading theory.

I'd like to share your confidence - but some of these rumours do seem to turn out to be remarkably accurate.

The facts appear to be:

323s are not being offered to Northern in the next franchise.

LM are the most likely recipient of 323s as they already operate them in the West Mids and could use them to strengthen services / replace DMUs.

Northern will need EMUs which have at least the same performance as the 323s for certain key routes e.g. Stoke - Manchester, Glossop - Manchester owing to pathing constraints. That means 319s aren't suitable for those.

TPE currently has LM's 350/4s on sub-lease - which are due to return to LM at some point.

LM are taking on some 319s to replace the 321s which are heading to Scotrail.

319s are about the only AC EMUs coming free in the foreseeable future with the Thameslink changes.

The only other opportunity may be around whatever is being ordered for GW suburban services - originally that was meant to be 319s, but I thought I read something which said not any more - if there's about to be an order for EMUs for GW, if that were to go to Siemens for Desiros, then potentially LM or Northern could add to their fleets with an add on there?

 

[hwl]

319s are about the only AC EMUs coming free in the foreseeable future with the Thameslink changes.

The only other opportunity may be around whatever is being ordered for GW suburban services - originally that was meant to be 319s, but I thought I read something which said not any more - if there's about to be an order for EMUs for GW, if that were to go to Siemens for Desiros, then potentially LM or Northern could add to their fleets with an add on there?

GW are getting:
29x 387/1 ex Thameslink
19?x 365s ex GN
and 8x new 387s (387/3?)

Other Spare EMU stock:

13x 321s also going spare ex GN
All the 317s from GN and London Overground West Anglia
All the 315s from London Overground West Anglia and TfL rail

 

[507021]

Northern will need EMUs which have at least the same performance as the 323s for certain key routes e.g. Stoke - Manchester, Glossop - Manchester owing to pathing constraints. That means 319s aren't suitable for those.

Just out of curiosity which class(es) of EMU have the same performance as the Class 323s?

 

[DasLunatic]

365s, 334s and maybe 320s, but I don't see them going no Northern anytime soon.

 

[507021]

365s, 334s and maybe 320s, but I don't see them going no Northern anytime soon.

Thanks DL

 

[RobShipway]

Could the introduction of the class 700's on thameslink replace all the class 365's at all?

If the class 700 where to be used on all routes covered by the class 365, that would leave 11 class 365's going spare to possibly go to Northern?

 

[swt_passenger]

TPE currently has LM's 350/4s on sub-lease - which are due to return to LM at some point.

Neither of those are facts. They aren't subleased, the contract for the 350/4 was novated (legally transferred) to TPE once they were ordered, hence they aren't LM's to be returned.

It might be logical to have them go to LM, but it is still speculation.

 

[jopsuk]

GN will be keeping 19 of the Class 365s to operate peak time Kings Cross-Peterborough & Cambridge services (off peak all PBO will be Thameslink and the Cambridge Express off-peak will be Class 377/5)

 

[D365]

Could the introduction of the class 700's on thameslink replace all the class 365's at all?

If the class 700 where to be used on all routes covered by the class 365, that would leave 11 class 365's going spare to possibly go to Northern?

Where do you get the "11 going spare" from? There are 21 365s to transfer to GW with 19 remaining on GN.

 

[DarloRich]

Well the 350/4s are both newer and better than the 350/2s.

The problem with saying "I pay more" is the same trains carry different flows. Up here commuters from Bolton always seem to be saying how they've been short changed in recent years, yet they get PTE subsided fares, regular direct services in to all 4 central Manchester stations with some services being operated by modern Desiros, compare that with Buxton* and they don't look like they're being short changed at all or compare with Northwich** and it looks like the Bolton commuters have luxury. However, despite Bolton commuters getting more for less it wouldn't be fair to put 142s on Barrow-Manchester via Bolton services because of how much the people who get on in Cumbria/Lancashire would be paying.

* Just over an hour from Manchester by train. Services operated by 150s and 156s, up to every 30 minutes at peak times.
** Just over an hour from Manchester by train. Services operated by 142s and 150s with a 68 minute gap between evening peak departures from Manchester.

the problem with all that is my season ticket to Euston is between £4.5 - 6K depending on the option chosen.

A season from Bolton to Manchester is £988. A season from Buxton is £2844

Can you see why the idea of swapping the newer trains for much older trains isn't going to be very popular. Especially when those getting the benefit of the newer trains are paying substantially less for their travel?

Northern and TPE need to be allowed to procure new trains - I would prefer them to get new ones suitable for their needs rather than our trains. I don't wish to be rude but this idea is madness and will not be well received by either the local politicians or the commuters paying for the privilege of a less good service.

 

[Viscount702]

the problem with all that is my season ticket to Euston is between £4.5 - 6K depending on the option chosen.

A season from Bolton to Manchester is £988. A season from Buxton is £2844

Can you see why the idea of swapping the newer trains for much older trains isn't going to be very popular. Especially when those getting the benefit of the newer trains are paying substantially less for their travel?

Northern and TPE need to be allowed to procure new trains - I would prefer them to get new ones suitable for their needs rather than our trains. I don't wish to be rude but this idea is madness and will not be well received by either the local politicians or the commuters paying for the privilege of a less good service.

Are you comparing like with like. I suspect not. If your season is purely MK to Euston then apart from anything elese MK to Euston is about 4 times the distance from Bolton to Manchester.

TPE had some trains suitable for their needs. However they were if you remember pinched by someone else. As a result TPE passengers on that route have now to put up with older inferior trains but are still paying the same for their journey.

 

[northwichcat]

the problem with all that is my season ticket to Euston is between £4.5 - 6K depending on the option chosen.

A season from Bolton to Manchester is £988. A season from Buxton is £2844

I was just using Bolton as an example, they currently get some modern trains despite low subsided fares, yet other places outside GM don't get any modern trains and pay proportionally much higher prices. However, to solve that problem it isn't as simple as switching trains

Buxton to Manchester is a much shorter distance than Milton Keynes to Manchester, you'd need to use Buxton to Chorley for a similar distance which by some strange coincide is also £4.5k per annum!

 

[Bletchleyite]

+1 from me - Northampton - London on any Desiro is infinitely preferable to the same journey on a 321. A 319 won't be any better.

The 319s are better, because most of them (particularly the 319/2s) have a far better 2+2 (or mostly 2+2) seating layout.

Some posters (Neil Williams) for example appear to be looking forward to the prospect of 319s and the replacement of the 350/2s - I suspect he's in the minority.....

I don't like 3+2 seating in a unit that's way too narrow for 3+2 seating. I also prefer longer trains, and as 319s are cheaper than 350s that might be something that can be achieved. 12 car on all peak non-Crewe services and 8 car on shoulder peak and all Crewes would be a good start. I'd happily take older units for that.

If LM can't keep the 350/2s on certain workings, there isn't a hope in hell that the 319s will stay on the right workings..... though it'll be interesting to see how one fares going via Weedon to Rugby......

As the bodies are near enough the same as 321s apart from the cab end, I'd imagine they won't hit anything, so clearing them that way will be easy. And the diagramming is more segregated than it was now 110mph is desirable for the Crewes.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Buxton to Manchester is a much shorter distance than Milton Keynes to Manchester, you'd need to use Buxton to Chorley for a similar distance which by some strange coincide is also £4.5k per annum!

And the North has a far inferior service with far worse overcrowding etc. Even if it were operated using Mk1 EMUs of some kind, the LM south WCML service is markedly superior.

 

[swt_passenger]

Could the introduction of the class 700's on thameslink replace all the class 365's at all?

If the class 700 where to be used on all routes covered by the class 365, that would leave 11 class 365's going spare to possibly go to Northern?

If the class 700 were to be used as you suggest, they'd need to order quite a few more, say 9 or 10 x 8 car, (as the GN is known to be keeping 19 x 365 as someone else has replied), and the intended routes would have to be suitable for at least a minimum of 8 car services.

 

[jopsuk]

That or, if going big on spending, order ~40 (a 23 and a 19 unit fleet, if operating as a single fleet, wouldn't need to be 42 strong) new 4-car express units for GN, making the entire 40 unit Class 365 fleet available and freeing up the 23 377/5

 

[northwichcat]

And the North has a far inferior service with far worse overcrowding etc. Even if it were operated using Mk1 EMUs of some kind, the LM south WCML service is markedly superior.

Indeed. I doubt many people in the North would commute that far because it would take significantly longer to travel the same distance. On top of that with salaries being much lower than in London very few people could afford a £4.5k annual commute.