London Midland/Northern EMU changes speculation

[Starmill]

Who says that LIV-BHM is unreliable. Having done over 20000 miles on the 350s since they were introduced to the route I would challenge that. They do I admit quite often lose a few minutes between BHM and CRE but this is made up by slack timings between RUN and LIV. The use of 350/2 is normal on five out of the eight diagrams. The service used to have a trolley service but this was stopped after the 350/2 appeared due to problems getting the trolleys through and passengers having no tables to put hot drinks on.

So why do other TOCs continue to provide trolleys selling hot drinks with that similar interior?

The trolleys were stopped because they were too tight to pay for them, just like Southern have done recently.

 

[childwallblues]

Surely if it's often late at Crewe that can affect a number of passengers trying to make onward connections there.

Most connections southbound are off the xx04 departure and have a +15 connection. "Often late" refers to the northbound departures which can be up to +5 due to delays out of New Street

 

[A0]

It's operated a few services including the 1843 to New St which has a few stops. Only lost 2 mins Euston to MKC.

I'm guessing you're referring to the Pretendolino.

The WCML south though is easier to work being fairly straight.

The real Pendolinos advantage is the WCML north of Preston where the tilting meant much higher speeds could be maintained when compared to Mk2 / 3s and an 87 / 90 and their acceleration away from stations was better than the 87/90 & coaches.

Hence TPE were probably right to decide the Pretendolino wasn't right for them.

 

[sprinterguy]

Not necessarily. Allerton currently handles all the 319s and the 156 fleet is split between Allerton and Heaton. Allerton started handling 156s when the ex-LM 150s arrived and the 156s had to be moved out of Newton Heath to make room for the ex-LM 150s.

Northern will have a requirement for around another 16-18 EMUs when the Blackpool/Bolton/Wigan axis goes live, this being my best guesstimate for just Northern stopping services. They will also need EMU stock for the current TPE fast services to Blackpool and Windermere and we don't know for sure which other services will get grouped in to the Regional Express category - perhaps the Liverpool-Blackpools? With 17 350/2s nominally to replace the 323s, another 8 to 10 would seem likely to RE Manchester-Blackpool/Windermere, another pair on the extra Stoke services, leaving 6 or so Liverpool-Blackpools. Any transfer of 350s to Northern may reduce the number of extra 319s they need on top of the 20 already allocated, but it certainly won't release any of those current ones and I'd still expect another 10-15 319s to be heading to Allerton in 2017 onwards.

Those posts are both very well reasoned and have proved quite enlightening, thanks both.

 

[childwallblues]

Northern will have a requirement for around another 16-18 EMUs when the Blackpool/Bolton/Wigan axis goes live, this being my best guesstimate for just Northern stopping services. They will also need EMU stock for the current TPE fast services to Blackpool and Windermere and we don't know for sure which other services will get grouped in to the Regional Express category - perhaps the Liverpool-Blackpools? With 17 350/2s nominally to replace the 323s, another 8 to 10 would seem likely to RE Manchester-Blackpool/Windermere, another pair on the extra Stoke services, leaving 6 or so Liverpool-Blackpools. Any transfer of 350s to Northern may reduce the number of extra 319s they need on top of the 20 already allocated, but it certainly won't release any of those current ones and I'd still expect another 10-15 319s to be heading to Allerton in 2017 onwards.

Alex Hynes, Northern MD is quoted as saying that Northern will require 40 Class 319s when electrification is complete.

 

[The Planner]

It's operated a few services including the 1843 to New St which has a few stops. Only lost 2 mins Euston to MKC.

It would have been more than that in reality as it would have picked up the engineering allowances on the way to hide it.

 

[northwichcat]

Alex Hynes, Northern MD is quoted as saying that Northern will require 40 Class 319s when electrification is complete.

Was that based on current Northern services or on what the ITT for the next franchise requires?

 

[Bletchleyite]

It would have been more than that in reality as it would have picked up the engineering allowances on the way to hide it.

EUS to MKC non-stop is timed 30 minutes, which Pendolinos often struggle to achieve and often run 2-3 minutes late due to sloppy running. The Pretendolino was often a very consistent 2 late.

 

[A0]

EUS to MKC non-stop is timed 30 minutes, which Pendolinos often struggle to achieve and often run 2-3 minutes late due to sloppy running. The Pretendolino was often a very consistent 2 late.

How are you qualified to state the Pendo's being 2-3 mins late is due to "sloppy running" ?

There are many on these boards who know the ins and outs of the timings and what can / can't be done and therefore speak with authority on such matters.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

EUS to MKC non-stop is timed 30 minutes, which Pendolinos often struggle to achieve and often run 2-3 minutes late due to sloppy running. The Pretendolino was often a very consistent 2 late.

I find it somewhat diverting to read of both London Euston and Milton Keynes Central being discussed on a thread dedicated to Northern Rail...:roll:

 

[158722]

Alex Hynes, Northern MD is quoted as saying that Northern will require 40 Class 319s when electrification is complete.

Based on the current timetable frequencies, 40 looks about right.

Mar 15 (x10) Liverpool LS to Manchester Airport (x3), to Wigan NW (x4) to Manchester Vic (x3)
Oct 15 (x15) Liverpool LS to Warrington BQ (x2), to Preston (x3)
May 17 (x30) Preston (extension of Liverpool LS) to Blackpool North (x2), Stalybridge to Blackpool North (x5), Preston to Hazel Grove (x4), Manchester Airport (transfer from TPE) to Blackpool North (x4)
Dec 17 (x40) Manchester Airport (transfer from TPE) to Windermere (x2), Manchester Airport/Victoria to Wigan W (x8)

Dates open to discussion as to when full services can/will start!

Assumes two services an hour are extended from Victoria to Stalybridge (can be Blackpool/Liverpool/Wigan services, total remains same) and all Southport/Kirby services are truncated at Wigan to allow EMU operation.

Lots of unknowns still, such as Windermere and Barrow service patterns (truncated at Lancaster/Preston?) and any service frequency increases.

 

[northwichcat]

Liverpool LS to Manchester Airport (x3), to Wigan NW (x4) to Manchester Vic (x3)

Although, that's set to change when TPE start running 2tph on Chat Moss. It's expected the second TPE service will stop at the services currently served by the Liverpool-Airport service and the Victoria stopper will be diverted to the Airport and may even be an all-stops service between Piccadilly and the Airport.

Manchester Airport (transfer from TPE) to Blackpool North (x4)

Manchester Airport (transfer from TPE) to Windermere (x2)

If 319s are used on those services they will have to fitted with 2+2 seating with tables, so it's unlikely that they'll be big enough in 4 car formation.

Manchester Airport/Victoria to Wigan W (x8)

Off the top of my head I'm not sure how many services there are currently. Have you allowed for the additional hourly service to Bolton which is required?

Lots of unknowns still, such as Windermere and Barrow service patterns (truncated at Lancaster/Preston?) and any service frequency increases.

No 2 return workings per day between Manchester Airport and Windermere and hourly Manchester Airport to Barrow service will be required operated as Northern 'Regional Express' services.

 

[D365]

Which of these services could be suitable for Class 350 operation, were the earlier proposed transfer (or interior refit) of the 36 Class 350/2 units to go ahead?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Based on the current timetable frequencies, 40 looks about right.

I think 40 units is overgenerous, giving poor utilisation.
By the time the wiring is complete, Northern should be able to optimise the diagrams and get more out of a smaller fleet.
All the timings should speed up, and turnround times should get less as trains can be mixed across several routes.
Even on current times you could do the Hazel Groves with 3 units and Stalybridge-Blackpool (if there is going to be such a service) with 4.
The Wigan services (assuming 2tph) should only need 4 units.

Maybe 40 units will be available to Northern, but the cost pressures will force them (as now) to get the highest productivity out of the fewest units.
The DfT position on the ITT certainly won't be "how many do you want", it will be "what's the lowest cost for operating these services".
Then there's the possibility of mixing routes across Manchester (currently 323 operated), and whether 350s are going to transfer in from TPE at some point.
We'll see when the new franchise gets going.

 

[northwichcat]

Which of these services could be suitable for Class 350 operation, were the earlier proposed transfer (or interior refit) of the 36 Class 350/2 units to go ahead?

As I suggested earlier on if the 323 services switch to 350 operation and the 'Regional Express' services are operated by double 350s, that would only leave a few units apart from the maintenance/spare units. With the Northern ITT saying additional Macclesfield services are required by December 17 then that sounds like somewhere for the remaining units to go.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

By the time the wiring is complete, Northern should be able to optimise the diagrams and get more out of a smaller fleet.
...
Even on current times you could do the Hazel Groves with 3 units and Stalybridge-Blackpool (if there is going to be such a service) with 4.
The Wigan services (assuming 2tph) should only need 4 units.

What about the peak time extras to Hazel Grove, which currently get inter-worked with Buxton and Mid-Cheshire services?

 

[Bletchleyite]

How are you qualified to state the Pendo's being 2-3 mins late is due to "sloppy running" ?

Because it is. If they ran per the WTT precisely, they would be on time. Persistent delays are sloppy; if the timetable can't be met, change it (that would I suppose make it sloppy, or perhaps over-optimistic, timetabling).

There are many on these boards who know the ins and outs of the timings and what can / can't be done and therefore speak with authority on such matters.

Then enlighten us rather than simply being dismissive.

(Though I suppose this is heading towards requiring a new thread)
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I find it somewhat diverting to read of both London Euston and Milton Keynes Central being discussed on a thread dedicated to Northern Rail...:roll:

It related specifically to a comparison between Pretendolino and actual Pendolino timings on a section of line where both ran together for some years.

 

[FordFocus]

Although it's diverted completely from 323s, I've looked on realtraintimes for services from Euston to Milton Keynes and it doesn't look like they lose 2-3 minutes much.

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/sea.../07/28/1122?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt&toc=VT

 

[158722]

Although, that's set to change when TPE start running 2tph on Chat Moss. It's expected the second TPE service will stop at the services currently served by the Liverpool-Airport service and the Victoria stopper will be diverted to the Airport and may even be an all-stops service between Piccadilly and the Airport.

If 319s are used on those services they will have to fitted with 2+2 seating with tables, so it's unlikely that they'll be big enough in 4 car formation.

Off the top of my head I'm not sure how many services there are currently. Have you allowed for the additional hourly service to Bolton which is required?

No 2 return workings per day between Manchester Airport and Windermere and hourly Manchester Airport to Barrow service will be required operated as Northern 'Regional Express' services.

So if I'm reading your notes correctly the 3 diagrams currently on the Airport-Liverpool will be dispensed with, essentially replaced by the extra TPE service, with the current 4x Liverpool-Victoria plus 1x Picc-Airport shuttle (323) sufficient to cover the suggested Liverpool-Airport stoppers? Those 3 319s should be sufficient to cover the extra Manchester-Bolton (-Preston?) turns in that case.

I may have over-estimated the Manchester-Wigan requirement as well - what is the normal 'non-Farnworth' pattern? Hourly Airport-Southport & hourly Vic-Southport via Atherton and hourly Vic-Wigan via Bolton? That would look like needing 6 units, not 8.

I know the current Windermere service pattern essentially only requires one unit, but what are we likely to see in the future? A more frequent Manchester-Windermere EMU Regional Express service connecting at Preston/Lancaster with a DMU (185?) shuttle to Barrow? Perhaps not popular in Barrow with the loss of through services, but curtailing the Liverpool-Blackpools (even temporarily) proves the precedent has been set. Has it been confirmed Barrow though services must be retained?

With those alterations and a bit of diagram tightening, something like 35 or 36 diagrams for 40 units?

Perhaps I should have also stated these as possible EMU turns not just 319s.
For completeness sake, the current Northern 323s usage seems to be as follows: 1x Airport, 2x Alderley Edge, 6x Crewe, 2/3x Stoke, 4 (1 peak only) Hadfield.

Overall, that would suggest a requirement for around 50 to 52 EMU diagrams, given the potential for a few efficiency gains from cross-Manchester workings such as Crewe or Stoke to Preston, Wigan or Blackpool. If I've done my sums correctly, that would suggest the 37 350/2s and 20 319s currently destined for Northern would actually suffice.

 

[northwichcat]

I know the current Windermere service pattern essentially only requires one unit, but what are we likely to see in the future? A more frequent Manchester-Windermere EMU Regional Express service connecting at Preston/Lancaster with a DMU (185?) shuttle to Barrow? Perhaps not popular in Barrow with the loss of through services, but curtailing the Liverpool-Blackpools (even temporarily) proves the precedent has been set. Has it been confirmed Barrow though services must be retained?

You can dismiss all those ideas. What I mentioned in my previous post is the requirement for the next franchise. Most hours there will have to be a direct Manchester Airport to Barrow service. They'll have to also be a minimum of 2 return workings per day between Manchester Airport to Windermere. Of course bidders could propose to run more direct Airport-Windermere services (maybe as portion workings with Airport to Blackpool services?) but not at the expense of the required Barrow services.

 

[158722]

You can dismiss all those ideas. What I mentioned in my previous post is the requirement for the next franchise. Most hours there will have to be a direct Manchester Airport to Barrow service. They'll have to also be a minimum of 2 return workings per day between Manchester Airport to Windermere. Of course bidders could propose to run more direct Airport-Windermere services (maybe as portion workings with Airport to Blackpool services?) but not at the expense of the required Barrow services.

Ideas duly dismissed... Essentially maintaining the status quo, just with EMUs vice 185s on the Windermere services.

 

[Old Hill Bank]

Can someone point me at the post in this thread that has any provenance that any 350s are moving from LM to Northern. I can not find it.

 

[northwichcat]

Can someone point me at the post in this thread that has any provenance that any 350s are moving from LM to Northern. I can not find it.

At the moment I think it's one of those ideas that industry insiders have heard DfT are plotting but as DfT officially claim they don't get involved with rolling stock deals we won't hear anything official until the leases are signed, similar to LM taking on 319s in the first place.

 

[Greybeard33]

Dec 17 (x40) Manchester Airport (transfer from TPE) to Windermere (x2), Manchester Airport/Victoria to Wigan W (x8)

Assumes ... all Southport/Kirby services are truncated at Wigan to allow EMU operation.

No plan to wire Wigan Wallgate or the Atherton line AFAIK. And the Northern ITT requires the through services from Manchester to Southport and Kirkby to continue throughout the franchise. So it is only the Manchester-Wigan terminators that might be diverted to Wigan North Western and operated by 319s.

 

[158722]

No plan to wire Wigan Wallgate or the Atherton line AFAIK. And the Northern ITT requires the through services from Manchester to Southport and Kirkby to continue throughout then franchise. So it is only the Manchester-Wigan terminators that might be diverted to Wigan North Western and operated by 319s.

Indeed, my mistake. Reduces EMU requirement even further.

 

[WatcherZero]

Existing Manchester Wigan terminators plus one extra fast an hour to replace the TPE going back to Bolton are in the franchise spec. Spec does however give a lot of freedom on how the services are routed only specifying daily frequencies for each terminus and not the route they have to use.

 

[ag51ruk]

Can someone point me at the post in this thread that has any provenance that any 350s are moving from LM to Northern. I can not find it.

There isn't one, it's all speculation based on the MR article that class 323s haven't been offered to any of the bidders for the new Northern franchise.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Existing Manchester Wigan terminators plus one extra fast an hour to replace the TPE going back to Bolton are in the franchise spec. Spec does however give a lot of freedom on how the services are routed only specifying daily frequencies for each terminus and not the route they have to use.

Yes, I thought the new fast (if Northern choose to run it) would be via Chat Moss.
You'd also think such a train would have a longer route, maybe at both ends.

 

[thealexweb]

Yes, I thought the new fast (if Northern choose to run it) would be via Chat Moss.
You'd also think such a train would have a longer route, maybe at both ends.

This thought has come up multiple times. Could I ask the reasoning behind why the chat moss is being considered as the ideal route for running the replacement Wigan service, as opposed to running it say via Atherton.

 

[Bevan Price]

Although, that's set to change when TPE start running 2tph on Chat Moss. It's expected the second TPE service will stop at the services currently served by the Liverpool-Airport service and the Victoria stopper will be diverted to the Airport and may even be an all-stops service between Piccadilly and the Airport.

.

And that is not going to be a popular move for passengers on the Chat Moss. Having just got the benefit of electric trains with 4 coaches, they will find that fast services revert to diesel units with a totally inadequate 2¼ coaches of standard class seating

 

[Geeves]

There are already far too many trains over the Chat Moss as it is especially at the Manchester end. The queue of class 1 trains alone when the wires came down at Piccadilly the other week went from Ordsall Lane to the level crossing at Astley and that was within about 45 mins.