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General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

How are you voting in the General Election

  • Conservative

    Votes: 25 18.0%
  • Green Party

    Votes: 15 10.8%
  • Labour

    Votes: 45 32.4%
  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 16 11.5%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 3 2.2%
  • Scottish National Party

    Votes: 9 6.5%
  • UK Independence Party

    Votes: 13 9.4%
  • Other: Right Leaning Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other: Left Leaning Party

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Other: Centrist Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other: Other

    Votes: 2 1.4%
  • Not Voting

    Votes: 7 5.0%
  • Spoiling Ballot

    Votes: 3 2.2%

  • Total voters
    139
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yorkie

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Very simplistic view of Glaswegian politics. Rangers vs Celtic isn't a straight-forward pro vs anti Union stance.
Evidently, but that's not the message that's conveyed, particularly among those who share such 'strong' views against the other side!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
...I fear that I will not be too longer on this website and physically removed from the country of my birth in the style of a Ugandan Asian in the time of Idi Amin's purges if my heritage from Poland is brought into play in any such referendum, even though I was born in Manchester, one month prior to the ending of the Second World War...
I think you can relax as this isn't going to happen.

Although UKIP are doing quite well in a small number of unsavoury parts of the country, clearly the vast majority of the population disagree with the views of individuals such as Robert Blay who bleat on about ancestry.
Robert Blay said:
Questioning Mr Jayawardena's background, he said: "His family have only been here since the 70s. You are not British enough to be in our parliament.

"I've got 400 years of ancestry where I live. He hasn't got that."
Well, neither has Nigel Farage! The ancestry argument is ludicrous.
 
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Dave1987

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Which is why I found it odd that Leanne Wood claimed that the Conservatives have no mandate at all in Wales.

Well this is the women who has demanded the same level of funding as Scotland gets from the Barnet formula, despite the fact that Wales contributes even less to the Exchequer that Scotland does (I'm fairly certain the BBC reported that during the election campaign. So she expects the English to pay for everything that her party has pledged. To say that the Tories have no mandate in Wales is just nonsense.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Well that isn't quite true though is it. If i recall the basic economics I was taught at university the "market" abhors confusion. Prices on stocks & shares etc rose when it became clear there was a definite winner, not simply because there was a Conservative victory.

In fact i saw Robert Peston say that he expected the stock market to rise regardless of who won, as long as someone actually won a clear victory!

Can you imagine what the stock markets would have been like had the Tories been the largest party but Labour had formed a govt with a confidence and supply agreement from the SNP, The Greens and PC. Sterling would have taken a nose dive and shares would have plummeted. Many peoples pensions rely on those share prices.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
With regards to the EU referendum, the fact that the EU governs a huge amount of what happens in our day to day lives and yet a lot of us haven't had the opportunity to say whether we want to be part of it. This is regardless of whether or not it is better to stay in or not. Because the EU dictates a lot of the laws which we have to abide by we should get a vote on our membership of it. Having read up on it I am starting to believe we should stay in but things like the common agricultural agreement are just nonsense.
 

ExRes

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Recognising that I may well have missed comment on one particular subject, I heard Nicola Sturgeon say this morning that half of the electorate voted SNP, looking at the BBC figures it shows that, from a turnout of 71.1%, SNP polled exactly 50% of the vote for 56 of 59 seats

Considering the accusations that the Tories are not a legitimate government, cannot the same be said of the SNP right to speak for all Scots as they only received 1454436 votes out of a possible 4094784
 

47802

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I can see two matters here upon which I will pass comment...

1)...I know that any popularity and respect that I may have had until this weekend on the forum will have dissipated like snowflakes in a furnace as a result of the stance that I took in support of FPTP, but I fear that I will not be too longer on this website and physically removed from the country of my birth in the style of a Ugandan Asian in the time of Idi Amin's purges if my heritage from Poland is brought into play in any such referendum, even though I was born in Manchester, one month prior to the ending of the Second World War...:oops:

2)...At the age of "three score years and ten", I doubt if my unpaid consultancy work for charities will be seen as depriving others of employment, but if the matter is raised, I will stand down from that unpaid role with immediate effect.

I hate the fact that a lot of anti EU feeling seems to revolve around immigration from former eastern block countries, but I have to admit I don't live in an area that has a really high level of former eastern block immigrants, I know there are areas that feel swamped, even an ex work colleague of mine who is Polish but has lived here for some time and is now a British citizen, thinks that there are too many Polish people in the area she lives and it causes problems.
 
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radamfi

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Regardless of what happens in an EU referendum, British citizens living in the UK have nothing to fear. I would also expect no issues for Irish citizens in the UK. However, I'm not sure about EU citizens. I would guess those already here would be fine, but nevertheless I would expect a high demand for citizenship applications in the next two years.
 

ExRes

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On the subject of turnout, I see that the two Plymouth seats were both won by the Conservatives with majorities of 523 and 1026 while turnout was 69.36% and 61.62%

How do those who complain about Conservative government justify spoiled ballots and failure to vote when they could so easily have made an enormous difference to the outcome of the election, add to those Morley & Outwood for example, Tory majority 402 on a 63.34% turnout, and the majority would be halved

I will simply never accept that the failure to vote is an acceptable choice unless, of course, you are prepared to put up with whatever comes your way subsequently without complaint
 
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TheKnightWho

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I hate the fact that a lot of anti EU feeling seems to revolve around immigration from former eastern block countries, but I have to admit I don't live in an area that has a really high level of former eastern block immigrants, I know there are area's that feel swamped, even an ex work colleague of mine who is Polish but has lived here for some time and is now a British citizen, thinks that there are too many Polish people in the area she lives and it causes problems.

UKIP has the highest levels of support in the areas which don't tend to have immigrants. It's the fear of immigrants rather than anything else.

Obviously some of this is that turkeys don't vote for Christmas (we're not going to see a Kipper in Tower Hamlets), but that's only a small factor.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
On the subject of turnout, I see that the two Plymouth seats were both won by the Conservatives with majorities of 523 and 1026 while turnout was 69.36% and 61.62%

How do those who complain about Conservative government justify spoiled ballots and failure to vote when they could so easily have made an enormous difference to the outcome of the election, add to those Morley & Outwood for example, Tory majority 402 on a 63.34% turnout, and the majority would be halved

I will simply never accept that the failure to vote is an acceptable choice unless, of course, you are prepared to put up with whatever comes your way subsequently without complaint

Not saying no does not mean you said yes.

This is as true in this as it is in rape law. (Obviously not the same thing, but the concept of consent does not change.)
 
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47802

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Regardless of what happens in an EU referendum, British citizens living in the UK have nothing to fear. I would also expect no issues for Irish citizens in the UK. However, I'm not sure about EU citizens. I would guess those already here would be fine, but nevertheless I would expect a high demand for citizenship applications in the next two years.

According to my Polish friend there already has been that demand for the last few years, so those who think that many Polish and other EU Nationals will suddenly disappear in the event of an EU pull out will be somewhat disappointed, of course when such as Toyota relocates to Poland or other EU country they may want to leave anyway.
 
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ExRes

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Not saying no does not mean you said yes

If you say so, to complain about a supposedly vicious and heartless party who care only for the rich and then fail to vote against them, or even vote at all, is inexcusable though

If my constituency had a Labour majority of 100000 in an electorate of 101000 I would still use my vote as a protest against them rather than fail to use that right
 

radamfi

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31442230

And while official figures suggest the number of Poles getting British citizenship across the UK remains relatively low - with 6,066 applying in 2013, compared to more than 800,000 residents - anecdotally this is changing.

Many in the Polish community say the numbers have risen sharply. Fuelled by worries about an EU referendum and its potential consequences for them, growing numbers want to vote.

This certainly seems to be the case in Southampton Itchen. Every Polish person I meet says they have applied for British citizenship themselves, or know friends who have put in an application.

...

People are worried about an EU referendum, he tells me. Many Poles fear they will be kicked out of the country if Britain votes to leave the EU. They feel David Cameron wants "to get rid of the Poles".

"Most people think that will happen," he says. "First you close the border, then you deal with the people you have here.
 

MidnightFlyer

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I will simply never accept that the failure to vote is an acceptable choice unless, of course, you are prepared to put up with whatever comes your way subsequently without complaint

I was one of the three who clicked 'Spoiled ballot' above, which I did in reality. The reason I did this is because I believe voting violates the non-aggression principle, which I try my best to live by. Other similar minded people obviously won't have reached that conclusion but that's at their prerogative, and that's up to them, I just ask my choice is respected and not written off in the same matter as people who don't give a **** about politics. As it turns out the outcome of the election is the one I am probably most happy with, save I would have preferred a Con-LD coalition when it comes to social matters. I am expecting freedom to be encroached quite a bit over the next five years, especially with the ghastly Theresa May still retaining the Home Secretary role.
 

Groningen

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If you are a Labour voter in a Tories stronghold (or the otherwise around); what is the reason to vote? Your vote is wasted; not matter what.
 

northwichcat

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If you are a Labour voter in a Tories stronghold (or the otherwise around); what is the reason to vote? Your vote is wasted; not matter what.

Indeed. There is a solution to that which is proven to work. In the case of a Conservative stronghold Labour and the Lib Dems need to not field a candidate and a strong Independent candidate needs to be fielded. Then you finish up with a genuine 2 horse race instead of a safe seat for someone. It got Martin Bell in to parliament.
 

GrimsbyPacer

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I'm expecting Human Rights Act to be scrapped, and the European Court to be no longer usable by UK people now Tories are in. What good could possibly happen for non-rich people now? I've heard rumors that VAT could be added to food if Cameron makes his law about no longer needing to trust him to not raise taxes.
I find the whole voting system a waste of time. 36% of those who voted, chose the Tory party, yet they have a majority. I have always voted but see little point now as my MP will just be ignored and laughed at like some sort of Punch and Judy show again. I won't get represented in government, I wouldn't with a Tory either as they wouldn't bring up badnews as that's the opposition's job.

Even though I voted Labour for a winning candidate, with just 14k votes she hardly represents most Grimbarians. And voting just legitimises the whole shambles as acceptable. In First Past The Post voters have to vote against another party not the one they want, I wanted Green but it would have been wasted like the other million Green Votes. It's all wrong, unfair and not democratic.

At next general I might aswell spoil my vote. It's not likely to be a decidimg vote anyway. Besides some non residents influence the result more than spoilt balloters. If you spoilt the vote, Well Done, as I surcomed to fear of UKIP and voted Labour, which doesn't matter in a safe seat anyway
 

ExRes

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If you are a Labour voter in a Tories stronghold (or the otherwise around); what is the reason to vote? Your vote is wasted; not matter what.

You give it a damn good try, just as the SNP did

Kilmarnock 25.95% swing, Kirkcaldy 34.55%, Renfrewshire East 24.23%, Glasgow East 30.65%, Glasgow North East 39.28% etc etc

Were they wasted votes ?
 

Oswyntail

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....
Not saying no does not mean you said yes.

This is as true in this as it is in rape law. (Obviously not the same thing, but the concept of consent does not change.)
Not quite true. In sexual situations, the situations are clear cut: Yes = go ahead; anything else = don't go ahead. There is no middle way. Voting is different: Yes = I support this candidate; a vote for another candidate means I positively do not support this candidate. But a non-vote may mean you support none of the above, that you forgot to vote, don't really care, thought it was a foregone conclusion, had a brain-fart and forgot to put your cross on, thought it was a clever way to show the establishment you really are a rebel, etc etc etc. As there are an infinite number of reasons, there is no legitimacy of any interpretation. All that can legitimately said is that n% of votes cast were cast for candidate Z.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Recognising that I may well have missed comment on one particular subject, I heard Nicola Sturgeon say this morning that half of the electorate voted SNP, looking at the BBC figures it shows that, from a turnout of 71.1%, SNP polled exactly 50% of the vote for 56 of 59 seats

Considering the accusations that the Tories are not a legitimate government, cannot the same be said of the SNP right to speak for all Scots as they only received 1454436 votes out of a possible 4094784

Well the point is that the SNP got slightly more than 50% of the votes in Scotland, whereas the Conservatives got just 36.9% of the vote in the UK.

Taking votes as a % of the electorate, as you have done, seems to me a bit silly if you are evaluating which of the parties should make up the legitimate Government. The people who have not voted have apparently chosen not to express any opinion, and it makes far more sense to consider the proportions amongst those who have chosen to express an opinion (You could make a counter-argument in principle about spoiled ballots but the numbers involved are tiny so aren't really going to change anything).

On that basis, the SNP's share of the vote in Scotland was 50.0% The Conservative's share of the vote in the UK was 36.9%.

If more than half of those who choose to express an opinion vote for you, then it looks a bit hard to deny that must give you some kind of legitimate moral right to speak for those people - which appears to be what Nicola Sturgeon is claiming. In fact, according to my sums, that SNP share is more exactly 49.97% - very slightly below 50%, which in my view somewhat weakens any argument that they have a right to speak for Scots, though it's a very tiny difference.

On the other hand, nationally, little more than 1/3 of the people who voted chose to vote Conservative. Nearly 2/3 of those who voted chose not to vote Conservative. In my view, by any reasonable moral standards, those figures make the idea that the Conservatives have some legitimate (in the moral sense, obviously not in the legal sense) right to rule the UK to the exclusion of all other parties look absurd. But thanks to our silly electoral system, that is exactly what the rules allow to happen.

Incidentally the 36.9% the Conservatives got on Thursday is exactly what Labour got in 1979 - when Mrs. Thatcher first won. I'm pretty sure no one in their right mind would claim that should have given James Callaghan's Labour Party had any kind of moral right to govern after that election - clearly, on the basis of 36.9%, he didn't. If you consider that a party's moral right to govern is determined by what proportion of those who vote vote for that party (which seems very reasonable) then - well, if 36.9% didn't give Callaghan any moral right to form the sole governing party, then neither does it give David Cameron any moral right to form the sole governing party. But, once again, that's the idiocy of our electoral system...
 
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EM2

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Because the EU dictates a lot of the laws which we have to abide by we should get a vote on our membership of it. Having read up on it I am starting to believe we should stay in but things like the common agricultural agreement are just nonsense.
We had one. Just because you and I didn't vote in it doesn't make it any less valid.
 

St Rollox

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If she's anti-Celtic (good on her, but the language is best toned down!) you'd expect her to be pro-Union, rather than anti-Union. Doesn't make sense to me :-?

Even more bizarre is that her family are Celtic supporters.
I wouldn't read too much into such things.
Jim Murphy who tweets non stop about Celtic is a big a unionist than anybody from Northern Ireland.
And the major shareholder at Celtic is known to help the Tory party with funding.
The YES/No campaigns and SNP/Unionist parties are very broad churches.
Funnily enough at a time in Scotland when actual church attendance has collapsed.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Recognising that I may well have missed comment on one particular subject, I heard Nicola Sturgeon say this morning that half of the electorate voted SNP, looking at the BBC figures it shows that, from a turnout of 71.1%, SNP polled exactly 50% of the vote for 56 of 59 seats

Considering the accusations that the Tories are not a legitimate government, cannot the same be said of the SNP right to speak for all Scots as they only received 1454436 votes out of a possible 4094784

Must go and apply that to David Cameron.
All voters in the UK minus those who didn't vote or voted somebody else other than Tory.
Have i got it right.
So that's 11 million voting Tory out of 44 million voters.
That's David Cameron running the country with 25% of all who had a vote.
Doesn't seem right.
 

Butts

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Which is why I found it odd that Leanne Wood claimed that the Conservatives have no mandate at all in Wales.

Well if The Conservatives have not got a mandate Plaid Cymru certainly have not with their 3 seats. Perhaps she would be wise to keep quiet on that front. :idea:
 

Dave1987

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I'm expecting Human Rights Act to be scrapped, and the European Court to be no longer usable by UK people now Tories are in. What good could possibly happen for non-rich people now? I've heard rumors that VAT could be added to food if Cameron makes his law about no longer needing to trust him to not raise taxes.
I find the whole voting system a waste of time. 36% of those who voted, chose the Tory party, yet they have a majority. I have always voted but see little point now as my MP will just be ignored and laughed at like some sort of Punch and Judy show again. I won't get represented in government, I wouldn't with a Tory either as they wouldn't bring up badnews as that's the opposition's job.

Even though I voted Labour for a winning candidate, with just 14k votes she hardly represents most Grimbarians. And voting just legitimises the whole shambles as acceptable. In First Past The Post voters have to vote against another party not the one they want, I wanted Green but it would have been wasted like the other million Green Votes. It's all wrong, unfair and not democratic.

At next general I might aswell spoil my vote. It's not likely to be a decidimg vote anyway. Besides some non residents influence the result more than spoilt balloters. If you spoilt the vote, Well Done, as I surcomed to fear of UKIP and voted Labour, which doesn't matter in a safe seat anyway

Would love to see you say "voting is a waste of time" to those who fought for your right to vote marching in the VE day parade today. If you don't vote you have no right to complain about who forms a govt. The Tories are to biggest party and gained the most votes nationally. Clearly of those who have the right to be heard (i.e. those that voted) the majority wanted the Tories in govt. Simple as!
 

EM2

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Even though I voted Labour for a winning candidate, with just 14k votes she hardly represents most Grimbarians. And voting just legitimises the whole shambles as acceptable. In First Past The Post voters have to vote against another party not the one they want, I wanted Green but it would have been wasted like the other million Green Votes. It's all wrong, unfair and not democratic.
My Green vote wasn't wasted, because I swapped.
Because I live in a safe Labour seat (a majority of over 25k), I swapped my vote. That meant I voted Green, and a Green voter in a marginal, where there was a chance of Labour defeating the Tories, voted Labour.
And it worked. The Tories were defeated in the constituency of the person I swapped with (Ealing Central and Acton) and they returned a Labour MP.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Would love to see you say "voting is a waste of time" to those who fought for your right to vote marching in the VE day parade today.
They also fought for your right not to vote if you wish.
 

Dave1987

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We had one. Just because you and I didn't vote in it doesn't make it any less valid.

I wasn't even born when the last referendum was held. Yet I have to abide by laws dictated by the EU. Why shouldn't I be allowed to vote on our EU membership?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
They also fought for your right not to vote if you wish.

You spoil your ballot paper then. Simply not bothering is NOT what they fought for.
 

DynamicSpirit

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I wasn't even born when the last referendum was held. Yet I have to abide by laws dictated by the EU. Why shouldn't I be allowed to vote on our EU membership?

'dictated' is a bit of a strong word - especially given that you have the right to vote for MEPs to make those laws.

But if we go along with your use of the word 'dictated'... You also have to abide by laws 'dictated' by the UK Government, and by rules etc. 'dictated' by your local councils. Can you please explain why you are not demanding a referendum on your local council's right to manage your locality, or on the UK Government's right to set laws?
 
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Butts

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Well this is the women who has demanded the same level of funding as Scotland gets from the Barnet formula, despite the fact that Wales contributes even less to the Exchequer that Scotland does (I'm fairly certain the BBC reported that during the election campaign. So she expects the English to pay for everything that her party has pledged. To say that the Tories have no mandate in Wales is just nonsense.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Can we have a Taff on here to explain what is happening in Cymru ?

Also has anyone seen the new Political Map of the UK - The South West is a sea of Blue ruined by some "oiks" in Exeter that had the temerity to elect a Labour MP and put a " red blot on the landscape" :p

Also returning to The North of England (the real north) the whole English side is a sea of Blue as Carlisle, Penrith and the Border, Hexham and Berwick provide Conservative dominance in this area.
 

EM2

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I wasn't even born when the last referendum was held. Yet I have to abide by laws dictated by the EU. Why shouldn't I be allowed to vote on our EU membership?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
You spoil your ballot paper then. Simply not bothering is NOT what they fought for.
You weren't even born when hundreds of other laws were passed (the Acts Of Union, for example). Do you want a referendum on those too?

As for the second point, if there is the right to do something, then there is also the right not to do it (unless it's specifically prohibited).
 
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St Rollox

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The most famous case in Scotland of percentages of the voting public is 1955 when the Unionists got 50.9% of the vote and 36 out of 72 seats.
Or did they?
Seems it was a bit of a coalition with unknown group (to me) called the National Liberals involved.
If the Greens, pro independence, were added to the mix last Thursday then the 50% is nearer 52%.
In 1955 the unionist coalition got 36 seats out of 72.
In 2015 the SNP got 56 out of 59 with the biggest numbers for one party in Scotland, well like ever.
 

Dave1987

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'dictated' is a bit of a strong word - especially given that you have the right to vote for MEPs to make those laws.

But if we go along with your use of the word 'dictated'... You also have to abide by laws 'dictated' by the UK Government, and by rules etc. 'dictated' by your local councils. Can you please explain why you are not demanding a referendum on your local council's right to manage your locality, or on the UK Government's right to set laws?

Er I voted in my local council election at the same time as voting for my MP. So I get a say in who is elected to my local council.
 
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