General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[DynamicSpirit]

In a democracy, the ability to personally hold to a "belief" is one of the reasons why people have fought and died to establish this system. Would you rather hold to the "Islamic State" principal of "convert or die"...hock:

I was also reminded by your comment of the oil painting of the boy summoned before a panel and being asked "When did you last see your father". Are we now to be asked to justify our own personal beliefs, on this website or anywhere else?

I would never ask any other forum member to justify any personally held views, as that surely impinges upon their personal privacy. Am I alone in the holding of this view?

You are of course completely free to hold whatever personal views you happen to hold, and clearly you are also free to decline to justify those views, if you so wish. However, if that is the situation, then it seems very puzzling that you should seek to debate those views on a forum like this, when you presumably know full well that the norm here tends to be for people to explain and provide reasons for the points they are seeking to convince others of (well, one or two specific well-known regulars excepted )

If you cannot provide any reasons for holding the views you do, then you would appear to be at a disadvantage when it comes to convincing anyone else that those views hold any merit.

But I would appeal to your sense of responsibility. If you've read this thread, then you've undoubtedly been informed of the numerous reasons why FTPT is unfair, why it in effect disenfranchises large numbers of people, and why it is therefore clearly undemocratic. It doesn't take a great leap of logic to deduce that these features of FTPT must cause a great deal of hurt to a great many people - in particular, those who support minor parties, and who therefore end up for all practical purposes excluded from the democratic process.

You therefore appear to be espousing a point of view that supports something that causes hurt to others, yet you are apparently unable to provide any justification for this. Would you agree that there appears to be a moral issue there, which perhaps suggests that you should consider what the arguments on electoral systems are, and to be open to adapting your beliefs in the light of those arguments, rather than simply taking the attitude of 'that's my personal point of view. End of. '?

 

[Dave1987]

I really don't know how I would vote in an EU referendum. Would be interested to see the arguments from both sides. We will hopefully get the facts on the EU.

 

[St Rollox]

And how exactly were you able to determine who were Labour supporters?

The strange thing about the Scottish referendum was that so many people calling for separation from the UK, were also desperate to remain in the EU! Did they want to self govern or not?

Some posted they were Labour members, kinda helps.
As for the EU that's probably no more than a crutch to win over the unsure.
It's was the Empire in 1934.
The Commonwealth in the 1970s.
Same goes for the pound sterling, monarchy etc.
Not my idea for a modern state to have a King or Queen living in a castle but obviously some people need them as part of the package.
Not unlike a lot people think closing borders will make them wealthier as though the bosses will give everybody a rise if Ukip was in 10 Downing St.
I voted against the Common Markey 40 years ago.

 

[me123]

In a democracy, the ability to personally hold to a "belief" is one of the reasons why people have fought and died to establish this system. Would you rather hold to the "Islamic State" principal of "convert or die"...hock:

I was also reminded by your comment of the oil painting of the boy summoned before a panel and being asked "When did you last see your father". Are we now to be asked to justify our own personal beliefs, on this website or anywhere else?

I would never ask any other forum member to justify any personally held views, as that surely impinges upon their personal privacy. Am I alone in the holding of this view?

You have every right to hold that belief, and I do not deny you that. I think you'll find that I've not demanded you "justify [your] personally held views", however I have asked you (and, indeed, everyone else who supports FPTP) to join in the debate and convince us to support FPTP. Those of us who propose electoral reform have written, collectively, tens of thousands of words in support of our cause, but there's been very little argument from the proponents of FPTP as to why we should retain it.

We cannot have a proper debate about something if you're just going to say "that's my belief" and not offer any form of argument. That's why I said that we might as well just stop things there.

I'm quite confused as to why my invitation to debate was likened to ISIS - surely ISIS have no interest in debate? :?

 

[yorksrob]

Some posted they were Labour members, kinda helps.
As for the EU that's probably no more than a crutch to win over the unsure.
It's was the Empire in 1934.
The Commonwealth in the 1970s.
Same goes for the pound sterling, monarchy etc.
Not my idea for a modern state to have a King or Queen living in a castle but obviously some people need them as part of the package.
Not unlike a lot people think closing borders will make them wealthier as though the bosses will give everybody a rise if Ukip was in 10 Downing St.
I voted against the Common Markey 40 years ago.

Good for you.

Now you're for the ever closer "free Markey".

Good luck with that

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I'm quite confused as to why my invitation to debate was likened to ISIS - surely ISIS have no interest in debate? :?

I admit that I was indeed rather unkind in that particular choice of ISIS in my posting. Perhaps the post-Russian revolution system of voting may have also been at the back of my mind. This is a price that I pay for being a septuagenarian with long memory for past historical matters to which I use to make comparisons.

With regard to my views on the main matter of my support of FPTP, I suppose that, to use the House of Lords terminology, I am just one of "The Contents" in that respect of being totally at ease with a system that has been operational for years. As I said before, shall we agree to disagree.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I really don't know how I would vote in an EU referendum. Would be interested to see the arguments from both sides. We will hopefully get the facts on the EU.

I fear you are being very optimistic there. UKIP have already argued extensively in favour of leaving, but most of the arguments they have put appear to me to be based on a mixture of prejudice and on information that's clearly misleading (with the one exception of pointing out that leaving the EU would provide the ability to remove freedom of movement rules). Likewise, many in the other parties have argued extensively in favour of remaining, but their arguments appear to me to be largely based on scaremongering about jobs (maybe the scaremongering is accurate, maybe it isn't, I've never seen any information that would allow an informed decision either way). If a referendum happens, as now seems likely, I rather fear that even at the end of the inevitable campaign, the vast majority of votes cast on both sides will be cast from a state of ignorance about the issues Incidentally, I'd suggest that's a very good reason for not holding a referendum.

If you want some facts on the EU, I suspect the only way is to spend some time reading up about it - there appear to be a number of books on amazon devoted to explaining the EU. And of course you can do that whether a referendum happens or not. Incidentally, I'll probably be doing likewise at some point, since right now my own perception is that I simply don't know enough about the EU to make a fair judgement either way.

 

[CC 72100]

I really don't know how I would vote in an EU referendum. Would be interested to see the arguments from both sides. We will hopefully get the facts on the EU.

Some say the newspapers had too much power and influence in this election. For those who say that, they haven't seen anything yet!

I fear that getting straight facts will be even harder come the EU referendum. Getting information to make an informed decision, in my view, will be difficult.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

You therefore appear to be espousing a point of view that supports something that causes hurt to others, yet you are apparently unable to provide any justification for this. Would you agree that there appears to be a moral issue there, which perhaps suggests that you should consider what the arguments on electoral systems are, and to be open to adapting your beliefs in the light of those arguments, rather than simply taking the attitude of 'that's my personal point of view. End of. '?

I never felt any "hurt" when the party that I support were voted out of office, as this in my view was the way I believe that the voting system should work.

If people wish to cast their votes for parties "without a chance of winning" than that is their right to do so, but for heavens sake, don't then start moaning about the unfairness of it all when matters take their normal course. This is nothing whatsoever to do with "morality"...we all have a vote and it is up to us to cast that vote and to then accept the resultant verdict of the electorate.

However, as I have said to others, shall we agree to disagree.

 

[Dave1987]

You have every right to hold that belief, and I do not deny you that. I think you'll find that I've not demanded you "justify [your] personally held views", however I have asked you (and, indeed, everyone else who supports FPTP) to join in the debate and convince us to support FPTP. Those of us who propose electoral reform have written, collectively, tens of thousands of words in support of our cause, but there's been very little argument from the proponents of FPTP as to why we should retain it.

We cannot have a proper debate about something if you're just going to say "that's my belief" and not offer any form of argument. That's why I said that we might as well just stop things there.

I'm quite confused as to why my invitation to debate was likened to ISIS - surely ISIS have no interest in debate? :?

The problem is some on this forum and indeed in our society believe that everyone should have the same beliefs as them. Some people are targeted for abuse and vandalism because they support the Tories. I believe the party you support the SNP were directly or indirectly responsible for harassing opponents and sating some pretty horrific things on social media to anyone who doesn't tow the SNP line in Scotland. I believe the SNP to be the most divisive and nasty parties in this country. I very much dislike the Labour party but the way he was hounded by SNP activists is not on. Same as with the hounding Nigel Farage got by anti UKIP activists. It is not right.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Some say the newspapers had too much power and influence in this election. For those who say that, they haven't seen anything yet!

I fear that getting straight facts will be even harder come the EU referendum. Getting information to make an informed decision, in my view, will be difficult.

As someone who has no idea whether we should stay in or leave I will definitely be doing a lot of research before voting. BUT[\B] the crucial thing is that the British people will be getting a say on it. If it turns out we are better in than out then fine. But the Labour position of we think that Britain should stay in the EU and that's final just doesn't wash.

 

[St Rollox]

Can't wait to the Scottish MP meet up with the Tory backbenchers.
That should be good fun.
Doubt it will be the like the first labour MPs, many of them ex miners, listening to the abuse they got in the house of commons.
The cat calls stopped after certain Tories paid a visit to the gents.

 

[radamfi]

Is it likely that Europhiles will rebel against the government and block the EU referendum?

Will the general public be willing to lose their right to retire to warmer countries such as Spain?

 

[yorksrob]

I fear you are being very optimistic there. UKIP have already argued extensively in favour of leaving, but most of the arguments they have put appear to me to be based on a mixture of prejudice and on information that's clearly misleading (with the one exception of pointing out that leaving the EU would provide the ability to remove freedom of movement rules). Likewise, many in the other parties have argued extensively in favour of remaining, but their arguments appear to me to be largely based on scaremongering about jobs (maybe the scaremongering is accurate, maybe it isn't, I've never seen any information that would allow an informed decision either way). If a referendum happens, as now seems likely, I rather fear that even at the end of the inevitable campaign, the vast majority of votes cast on both sides will be cast from a state of ignorance about the issues Incidentally, I'd suggest that's a very good reason for not holding a referendum.

If you want some facts on the EU, I suspect the only way is to spend some time reading up about it - there appear to be a number of books on amazon devoted to explaining the EU. And of course you can do that whether a referendum happens or not. Incidentally, I'll probably be doing likewise at some point, since right now my own perception is that I simply don't know enough about the EU to make a fair judgement either way.

Fair point indeed. Unfortunately, a European Nation has been hung out to dry for the sake of a poorly designed single currency, so that's never going to be a good advert for EU membership, however it is portrayed.

 

[St Rollox]

Is it likely that Europhiles will rebel against the government and block the EU referendum?

Will the general public be willing to lose their right to retire to warmer countries such as Spain?

Doubt Ukip take much notice of the ex pat or future ex pat community.
Free Spanish health care would stop as soon as the UK left the EU.
No doubt the UK would get a million OAPs arriving within a few months for treatment

 

[me123]

The problem is some on this forum and indeed in our society believe that everyone should have the same beliefs as them. Some people are targeted for abuse and vandalism because they support the Tories. I believe the party you support the SNP were directly or indirectly responsible for harassing opponents and sating some pretty horrific things on social media to anyone who doesn't tow the SNP line in Scotland. I believe the SNP to be the most divisive and nasty parties in this country. I very much dislike the Labour party but the way he was hounded by SNP activists is not on. Same as with the hounding Nigel Farage got by anti UKIP activists. It is not right.

Actually living in Scotland, I can tell you that the SNP haven't been anywhere near as divisive as the Daily Mail would have you believe. Lots of people have strong views about independence on both sides of the debate, but we all generally get on pretty well and don't let it divide us. Most of us respect each other's views. Similarly, most of us don't have an anti-English sentiment, rather it seems to be that some English people tell us we're anti-English and then use that to broadcast their own anti-Scottish rhetoric. I've said before, I very much like England (and indeed Wales and Northern Ireland), and I think that independence would allow both nations to flourish (although this is a debate for another time).

Of course, I completely accept that a faction of nationalists are of the more unsavoury variety, and there have been reprehensible incidents involving pro-nationalist campaigners and, indeed, members of the SNP. They don't speak for the majority of Scottish people, they don't speak for the majority of nationalists, and those who are members of the SNP don't speak for the SNP, and indeed the SNP take swift action on those members who bring the party into disrepute. By contrast, UKIP representatives say some utterly bizarre and reprehensible things (gay marriage causes floods, calling Africa "bongo bongo land", referring to their constituents of Thai origin as "ting tongs from somewhere") and they seem to get a slap on the wrist, if that.

In fact, I'd say form my experience that the Conservatives have proven to be a more divisive force in politics, as their policies have widened the social gap. Tory policies and rhetoric have attempted to victimise the most vulnerable in our society as work shy beggars. Meanwhile, their taxation policies seem to protect the most affluent. I cannot fathom how the Conservatives could justify lowering the 50% tax rate on the small number of people earning in excess of £100,000, when they are cutting budgets across the board, disproportionately affecting the poorest in our society. This is what's causing real division in society.

Although, again, whilst I find the Conservatives divisive and disagree with them on a number of profound issues, I think the anti-Tory abuse that is prevalent in some parts of society is not acceptable. Bullying, abusive behaviour, and even downright assault are not acceptable. I think it's important that people across the political spectrum, people from all political parties, people of all beliefs, should debate vociferously, but should also respect each other's beliefs and not resort to this sort of reprehensible behaviour.

In spite what I've written above, I still think that the vast majority of politicians believe that they are doing what they think is the best thing for society as a whole. I just disagree about how some of them are going about it.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Doubt Ukip take much notice of the ex pat or future ex pat community.
Free Spanish health care would stop as soon as the UK left the EU.
No doubt the UK would get a million OAPs arriving within a few months for treatment

This will not be a forgotten fact once the campaigns are underway.

 

[ainsworth74]

When Mhairi Black was a teenager she made some, uh, interesting tweets as i100 (a sub-group of The Independent newspaper I believe) have dug up here (NSFW language). Certainly seems to have some strong views on Celtic

This isn't a comment on whether or not she's suitable to be a MP (I've not seen anything to suggest she's any more or less suitable than any other MP), I just found them amusing so thought I'd share. Though if she hasn't toned down the language it will, as the website comments, make PMQs a bit more interesting

 

[yorkie]

If she's anti-Celtic (good on her, but the language is best toned down!) you'd expect her to be pro-Union, rather than anti-Union. Doesn't make sense to me :-?

 

[MidnightFlyer]

The two mindsets aren't mutually exclusive: an awful lot of Rangers fans were / are in the Yes camp *, including at least one on here.

* - I'm aware that being a Rangers fan doesn't instantly make you anti-Celtic, but it's a reasonable yardstick.

 

[DarloRich]

In an election I vote for which person will best stand up for my area in the commons. It has to be someone local who knows and cares about the area. With the PR system you are not voting for someone to represent your constituentcy, you are merely voting for a party. The MPs allocated to a particular party may mean the MP for your area may be from a party that a very small portion of the electorate voted for. I think PR goes completely away from localism and makes it even harder for independent candidates to possibly win a seat.

Well then in my constituency you would have had, using your rules, no choice but to vote for the Labour candidate. He is the only one born, brought up, worked and still lived in the town. Most of the candidates didn't even have an address in the constituency they sought to win!

I am neither pro Europe or anti Europe but Mr Brown signed away a huge amount of powers to Brussels without asking the British people if we wanted it or not. At least the Tories are offering a free vote on whether we stay in or not. Whereas Labour attitude is that they think we should stay in so you don't get a choice.

You keep saying this but ignore the challenge on the other pieces of legislation we get no say on. One example is the change to fixed term parliaments was a major alteration to our "constitution" - why didn't we get a referendum then? Do you feel the same, for instance, about the Masstricht Treaty John Major singed. You cant blame Labour for those...........

The thing that those who demand a referendum on Europe have never - so far as I can see - explained is why that issue alone should get a referendum when practically nothing else the UK Government does, no matter how major or how significantly it might effect my life, apparently requires one.

exactly! I am not saying there shouldn't be a referendum just why this one and not something else?

So surprise surprise that sterling rises when a party that knows how to grow the economy and create jobs gets a majority.

Well that isn't quite true though is it. If i recall the basic economics I was taught at university the "market" abhors confusion. Prices on stocks & shares etc rose when it became clear there was a definite winner, not simply because there was a Conservative victory.

In fact i saw Robert Peston say that he expected the stock market to rise regardless of who won, as long as someone actually won a clear victory!

 

[adrock1976]

I'm surprised that she is a Partick Thistle fan, owing to her comments about Celtic. Before it was mentioned that she is a Jags fan, my first thought would have been that she is a supporter of the Ibrox mob.

As Thistle are my adopted team, most fellow Jags fans I know do not really give a toss about either the Parkhead or Ibrox teams.

Furthermore, let's hope she turns out to be a good MP, and she is able to have the more experienced people guiding her if need be. Also, there have been a few comments regarding what experience (or lack of) she has to be an MP, with those same people forgetting that Cameron, Osbourne, et al have never had a proper job at all (Cameron working in the media industry, Osbourne being a descendant of the Irish aristocracy and his assets are held in offshore accounts to dodge tax, Iain Duncan Smith being a failed leader, so rubbish he did not last very long and never led an election campaign as Leader of the Opposition, faked his CV, and transferred his assets to his spouse who rather conveniently has them all offshore to dodge tax).

In other words, Mhairi Black has not yet been corrupted by the system yet.

In peace

Adam

 

[Butts]

Are there no Welsh Conservatives on this Forum ? - Let's give credit where it's due in Cymru .... in fact Scotland and England have dominated the discussions where are all The Taffs ?

1997 Conservatives wiped out in Wales

2015 Conservatives second biggest Party by share of the vote and seats in Wales.

Gower and Vale of Glamorgan gained from Labour and Brecon and Radnor from the Lib Dems. They gained as many seats as Plaid Cymru hold in total.

Ynys Mon would have been added but for UKIP's input in a three way marginal.

Darker side of Cymru - did anyone else notice how UKIP piled up the votes particularly in urban constituencies

 

[47802]

I am against an EU referendum at the moment because the argument seems mainly to be based around 'Poles' nicking my job argument, while if a lot Multinational start to relocate the 'Pole' and other EU nationals might still be nicking your job but in there own country. Will the next Toyota model not be built in Derby, will the next Airbus model no longer have the wings built in Briton etc.

Then as already mentioned there is all those British People living in France and Spain, figures I just looked at suggested about 700,000 in Spain and 200,000 in France.

Farage say we can trade with the rest of the world, I'm not sure what with since most of our larger manufacturing is mainly foreign owned.

We would have renegotiate trade agreements and we would be minnows against the likes of China and America.

What happens if we end up with an eventual Independent Scotland in the EU and the rest of the UK out of the EU. rather than Jobs allegedly leaving Scotland it might be the other way around.

All this stuff needs to be debated properly and it isn't at the moment, instead we just get the base instinct of 'Poles' nicking my Job.

 

[yorksrob]

I am against an EU referendum at the moment because the argument seems mainly to be based around 'Poles' nicking my job argument, while if a lot Multinational start to relocate the 'Pole' and other EU nationals might still be nicking your job but in there own country. Will the next Toyota model not be built in Derby, will the next Airbus model no longer have the wings built in Briton etc.

Then as already mentioned there is all those British People living in France and Spain, figures I just looked at suggested about 700,000 in Spain and 200,000 in France.

Farage say we can trade with the rest of the world, I'm not sure what with since most of our larger manufacturing is mainly foreign owned.

We would have renegotiate trade agreements and we would be minnows against the likes of China and America.

What happens if we end up with an eventual Independent Scotland in the EU and the rest of the UK out of the EU. rather than Jobs allegedly leaving Scotland it might be the other way around.

All this stuff needs to be debated properly and it isn't at the moment, instead we just get the base instinct of 'Poles' nicking my Job.

I'm inclined to agree, in terms of a referendum. I think the Lib Dems had a point when they said that a referendum should take place with the next big treaty change, as this would mark a major constitutional turning point.

I also think it would be worth seeing how the separation of powers between Euro and non-Euro states pans out before making a major decision.

 

[ainsworth74]

2015 Conservatives second biggest Party by share of the vote and seats in Wales.

Gower and Vale of Glamorgan gained from Labour and Brecon and Radnor from the Lib Dems. They gained as many seats as Plaid Cymru hold in total.

Which is why I found it odd that Leanne Wood claimed that the Conservatives have no mandate at all in Wales.

 

[radamfi]

The main problem people seem to have with the EU is the inclusion of former Communist countries. But there are robust geopolitical arguments for that, which are more important than ever with a resurgent Russia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_the_European_Union#2004_and_2007_Eastern_enlargements

As with the Mediterranean countries in the 1980s, the former communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe had emerged from dictatorships and wanted to consolidate their democracies. They also wanted to join the project of European integration and ensure they did not fall back into the Russian sphere of influence. The EU and NATO offered a guarantee of this, and the EU was also seen as vital to ensuring the economic success of those countries.

 

[47802]

The main problem people seem to have with the EU is the inclusion of former Communist countries. But there are robust geopolitical arguments for that, which are more important than ever with a resurgent Russia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_the_European_Union#2004_and_2007_Eastern_enlargements

I don't think people have a problem with that in principle, the problem is of course that these economies are not up to the standard of the main EU countries and with freedom of movement between EU counties that means a lot of migration from those new EU countries. That should have been restricted until those economies get closer to the main EU countries, but that essentially goes against EU principle.

If the UK pulled out of the EU and it led to the break up of the EU and a reformation into more of a trading block, which I think is what many in the UK would like, then it might be a good thing in the long term but that would be a massive change to Europe with perhaps unforeseen consequences , so I very much doubt that would happen even though some euro-sceptics believe it might and for us to just to pull out, the dis-benefit would outweigh the benefit in my view.

There is the idea of the 2 tier Europe with those countries that use the Euro and want closer integration, and then a loser structure for those that don't. But is that practical, many say for the Euro to work properly it will require much closer integration and effectively become a single economy, and the So called 'United States of Europe' how would that paradox work with Scottish Nationalism? and will such as the French and the Germans eventually rebel against the increasing loss of state control and identity?

 

[radamfi]

I don't think people have a problem with that in principle, the problem is that these economies are not up to the standard of the main EU countries and with freedom of movement between EU counties that means a lot of migration from those new EU countries. That should have been restricted until those economies get closer to the main EU countries

Well there were restrictions for many years. Those restrictions made those countries feel like second rate members. The whole point of making these countries full members is to accelerate their growth. Eventually there will be convergence meaning economic migration will no longer be an issue. A number of those 2004 entrants have already caught up with some of the weaker pre-2004 members.

 

[me123]

When Mhairi Black was a teenager she made some, uh, interesting tweets as i100 (a sub-group of The Independent newspaper I believe) have dug up here (NSFW language). Certainly seems to have some strong views on Celtic

This isn't a comment on whether or not she's suitable to be a MP (I've not seen anything to suggest she's any more or less suitable than any other MP), I just found them amusing so thought I'd share. Though if she hasn't toned down the language it will, as the website comments, make PMQs a bit more interesting

These appear to have been made when she was 15. I'm pretty sure a large portion of the elected politicians from across the political spectrum did some slightly silly things at this age, and we could probably drag up quite a lot on all of them. A lot of it probably worse.

Having lived in Glasgow, I can tell you that these are actually bog standard social media uploads from teenagers.

If she's anti-Celtic (good on her, but the language is best toned down!) you'd expect her to be pro-Union, rather than anti-Union. Doesn't make sense to me :-?

Very simplistic view of Glaswegian politics. Rangers vs Celtic isn't a straight-forward pro vs anti Union stance.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I am against an EU referendum at the moment because the argument seems mainly to be based around 'Poles' nicking my job argument, while if a lot Multinational start to relocate the 'Pole'.

All this stuff needs to be debated properly and it isn't at the moment, instead we just get the base instinct of 'Poles' nicking my Job.

I can see two matters here upon which I will pass comment...

1)...I know that any popularity and respect that I may have had until this weekend on the forum will have dissipated like snowflakes in a furnace as a result of the stance that I took in support of FPTP, but I fear that I will not be too longer on this website and physically removed from the country of my birth in the style of a Ugandan Asian in the time of Idi Amin's purges if my heritage from Poland is brought into play in any such referendum, even though I was born in Manchester, one month prior to the ending of the Second World War...

2)...At the age of "three score years and ten", I doubt if my unpaid consultancy work for charities will be seen as depriving others of employment, but if the matter is raised, I will stand down from that unpaid role with immediate effect.