• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

How are you voting in the General Election

  • Conservative

    Votes: 25 18.0%
  • Green Party

    Votes: 15 10.8%
  • Labour

    Votes: 45 32.4%
  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 16 11.5%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 3 2.2%
  • Scottish National Party

    Votes: 9 6.5%
  • UK Independence Party

    Votes: 13 9.4%
  • Other: Right Leaning Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other: Left Leaning Party

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Other: Centrist Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other: Other

    Votes: 2 1.4%
  • Not Voting

    Votes: 7 5.0%
  • Spoiling Ballot

    Votes: 3 2.2%

  • Total voters
    139
Status
Not open for further replies.
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

dcsprior

Member
Joined
28 Aug 2012
Messages
862
Location
Edinburgh (Fri-Mon) & London (Tue-Thu)
Just to slightly change the subject - does anyone know of any website that gives the full constituency election results (preferably for 2010 and 2015) in a machine-readable format? Something like XML?

(It's for my own personal interest btw)

If all you want is a list of the winning candidate for each, this can be got from the .csv file linked from https://yournextmp.com/help/api/

I'd also be interested in fuller results in a machine-readable format
 

St Rollox

Member
Joined
2 Jun 2013
Messages
650
UKIP fielded candidates against the Conservatives in a large number of constituencies and their one and only success was in a constituency where a former Conservative candidate with a very strong personal following was elected. Is it any wonder that they too now espouse PR?

The one Ukip MP might be able to work with the 56 SNP MPs on this.
The SNP are pro PR.
Then again, why would they help a party who are anti Scottish.
 

me123

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2007
Messages
8,510
The Conservative Party won this last election under the FPTP system and I wonder as to the political allegiances of those upon this thread whose clamour the loudest for PR to be effected. Not many Conservative Party supporters amongst them I am sure.

I voted SNP, and I am of course happy with the result we got on Thursday, at least from the Scottish perspective. However, the SNP's result was clearly not democratic, and with PR we'd have no more than half the number of SNP MPs. Nevertheless, I'll still continue to passionately support PR as the most democratic option.

The great difficulty with electoral reform is that, to get electoral reform, the party/ies in power have to agree to it. However, as FPTP invariably trends towards a two party system with majority governments, neither of the main parties are likely to be overly attracted to FPTP so we won't get it. FPTP allows the two big parties to steamroll their policies through with support from a minority of the electorate, it makes it easier for them to fight elections by ignoring their "safe" seats and voters... it's completely and utterly undemocratic.

The reason the Conservatives generally oppose reform is because it would undoubtedly disadvantage their own party, but that does not make it democratic. The Tories actually have an unfair advantage over most other parties as a direct result of the FPTP system, and their instance that FPTP is the best option is based solely on them wanting to retain that advantage and retain power.

You never will have see me making enthusiastic support postings for the introduction of PR upon this or any other website. At the age of 70, I have experienced far more General Elections than many of the contributors to this thread.

I don't see what your age has to do with anything.

But please do give me reasons as to why you think that FPTP is the superior system (and this goes out to all members who support FPTP). I've seen plenty of arguments for proportional representation on this thread, but actually very few arguments as to why we should retain FPTP.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
44,362
Location
Yorks
I respect you for holding the view that you hold, but I too am entitled to hold the opinion that I do. Shall we just agree to differ?

We will just have to.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
In an election I vote for which person will best stand up for my area in the commons. It has to be someone local who knows and cares about the area. With the PR system you are not voting for someone to represent your constituentcy, you are merely voting for a party. The MPs allocated to a particular party may mean the MP for your area may be from a party that a very small portion of the electorate voted for. I think PR goes completely away from localism and makes it even harder for independent candidates to possibly win a seat.

Herman Munster could be local and care about my area. I still require the ability to influence the philosophy of Government. That requires an equal ability to decide on that philosophy, regardless of my geographical location.
 

Dave1987

On Moderation
Joined
20 Oct 2012
Messages
4,563
By using one of the many other systems which we've been talking about on this thread...

I'm afraid I've not read all 128 pages. I also don't see how it is possible to have a stable govt with PR. I would much rather have a centre left or centre right party in govt (preference on centre right) with a stable govt that the markets feel confident in. Sterling rose significantly on the news that's the Tories had won a majority and shares in many companies rose as well.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

Veteran Member
Joined
17 Apr 2011
Messages
35,436
Location
A typical commuter-belt part of north-west England
I don't see what your age has to do with anything.

But please do give me reasons as to why you think that FPTP is the superior system (and this goes out to all members who support FPTP). I've seen plenty of arguments for proportional representation on this thread, but actually very few arguments as to why we should retain FPTP.

Why do you not also quote what I said in my posting extract that you have posted above about the number of General Elections that this said age has allowed me to participate in. That, is the reason, "why it has to do with anything" to use your phrase. Experience of participating in the democratic process time and time again. Not refusing to vote nor ruining my ballot paper.

I do not need to give any reasons for my thinking that FPTP is the system it is, save to say that my own personal belief holds this to be so.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Herman Munster could be local and care about my area. I still require the ability to influence the philosophy of Government. That requires an equal ability to decide on that philosophy, regardless of my geographical location.

You can do this by standing for election, being successful in winning your seat and working as a back-bencher with others of like minds.
 
Last edited:

Dave1987

On Moderation
Joined
20 Oct 2012
Messages
4,563
But please do give me reasons as to why you think that FPTP is the superior system (and this goes out to all members who support FPTP). I've seen plenty of arguments for proportional representation on this thread, but actually very few arguments as to why we should retain FPTP.

With the FPTP system the candidate who got the most votes in that constituentcy is elected to represent that area. With PR you could end up with a candidate representing a constituentcy where only a small proportion on the electorate voted for that party. I think that is very unfair as another party may have more votes in that area.
 

radamfi

Established Member
Joined
29 Oct 2009
Messages
9,267
I'm afraid I've not read all 128 pages. I also don't see how it is possible to have a stable govt with PR. I would much rather have a centre left or centre right party in govt (preference on centre right) with a stable govt that the markets feel confident in. Sterling rose significantly on the news that's the Tories had won a majority and shares in many companies rose as well.

I think you are being deliberately obtuse. You only have to read the few pages from when you started posting yesterday.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
44,362
Location
Yorks
You can do this by standing for election, being successful in winning your seat and working as a back-bencher with others of like minds.

Unless we want a parliament of sixty million MP's, I don't really think that's a practical way to ensure that each voters views have an equal chance of influencing Government.
 

EM2

Established Member
Joined
16 Nov 2008
Messages
7,522
Location
The home of the concrete cow
I'm afraid I've not read all 128 pages. I also don't see how it is possible to have a stable govt with PR.
Dozens of other countries seem to manage very well. The Republic Of Ireland, for example.
I would much rather have a centre left or centre right party in govt (preference on centre right) with a stable govt that the markets feel confident in. Sterling rose significantly on the news that's the Tories had won a majority and shares in many companies rose as well.
Is that really a surprise? A pro-enterprise, pro-private sector party gains power, and enterprise and the private sector are happy.
 

radamfi

Established Member
Joined
29 Oct 2009
Messages
9,267
The Conservative Party won this last election under the FPTP system and I wonder as to the political allegiances of those upon this thread whose clamour the loudest for PR to be effected. Not many Conservative Party supporters amongst them I am sure.

You never will have see me making enthusiastic support postings for the introduction of PR upon this or any other website. At the age of 70, I have experienced far more General Elections than many of the contributors to this thread.

If you look at any campaign against discrimination throughout history, it does start with the people discriminated against being the first people to campaign against it. For example, when women wanted the vote, it was women who campaigned for it originally. To start with, men weren't very interested. After all, they had the vote so they didn't really care. But after a while, some men started to realise this was unfair and then men joined the movement. Now hardly anyone thinks women shouldn't be able to vote.
 

Dave1987

On Moderation
Joined
20 Oct 2012
Messages
4,563
Dozens of other countries seem to manage very well. The Republic Of Ireland, for example.

Is that really a surprise? A pro-enterprise, pro-private sector party gains power, and enterprise and the private sector are happy.

I seem to remember that Ireland needed a massive bail out from the ECB in recent times so that's going very well!

Considering how left wing the Labour Party has gone it's not surprising. Labour love bashing the banks saying they will tax them more and more, that is until one of the biggest, HSBC gets fed up and threatens to leave the UK and take the millions it pays in tax elsewhere and then suddenly Labour love the banks! Same with the whole Non-Dom issue. Mr Balls admitted it would cost the country money by abolishing it, just after the sound bites rather than well thought out policy. So surprise surprise that sterling rises when a party that knows how to grow the economy and create jobs gets a majority.
 

radamfi

Established Member
Joined
29 Oct 2009
Messages
9,267
It is possible for Conservative parties to have an overall majority even in a PR system. For example the CSU in Bavaria usually gets a majority in the State election.
 

Groningen

Established Member
Joined
14 Jan 2015
Messages
2,866
So now we can wait how the Tories hold the countries on the mainland of Europe for ransom/hostage.
 

TheKnightWho

Established Member
Joined
17 Oct 2012
Messages
3,183
Location
Oxford
I seem to remember that Ireland needed a massive bail out from the ECB in recent times so that's going very well!

Considering how left wing the Labour Party has gone it's not surprising. Labour love bashing the banks saying they will tax them more and more, that is until one of the biggest, HSBC gets fed up and threatens to leave the UK and take the millions it pays in tax elsewhere and then suddenly Labour love the banks! Same with the whole Non-Dom issue. Mr Balls admitted it would cost the country money by abolishing it, just after the sound bites rather than well thought out policy. So surprise surprise that sterling rises when a party that knows how to grow the economy and create jobs gets a majority.

Germany. End of story.
 

Starmill

Veteran Member
Joined
18 May 2012
Messages
27,284
Location
Bolton
So surprise surprise that sterling rises when a party that knows how to grow the economy and create jobs gets a majority.

That was almost certainly much more to do with not having a hung parliament than who it actually was that had the majority...
 

EM2

Established Member
Joined
16 Nov 2008
Messages
7,522
Location
The home of the concrete cow
I seem to remember that Ireland needed a massive bail out from the ECB in recent times so that's going very well!

Considering how left wing the Labour Party has gone it's not surprising. Labour love bashing the banks saying they will tax them more and more, that is until one of the biggest, HSBC gets fed up and threatens to leave the UK and take the millions it pays in tax elsewhere and then suddenly Labour love the banks! Same with the whole Non-Dom issue. Mr Balls admitted it would cost the country money by abolishing it, just after the sound bites rather than well thought out policy. So surprise surprise that sterling rises when a party that knows how to grow the economy and create jobs gets a majority.
Ireland's need for a bailout wasn't because they use PR to elect their Government. It was because the Government that was in power had decided to use a low-tax, low-regulation model for their economy.
An economic model that George Osborne called 'a shining example' in 2006?
Article in The Independent
"Ireland stands as a shining example of the art of the possible in economic policy-making….With its vision of a highly-educated, innovative, open, dynamic, low-tax economy and relentless focus on the long-term drivers of prosperity, Ireland’s economic miracle has shown that it has the answers to the challenges of the new global economy.”
As someone who was living in Ireland in 2006, I can tell you that the writing was already on the wall.
 
Last edited:

me123

Established Member
Joined
9 Jul 2007
Messages
8,510
With the FPTP system the candidate who got the most votes in that constituentcy is elected to represent that area. With PR you could end up with a candidate representing a constituentcy where only a small proportion on the electorate voted for that party. I think that is very unfair as another party may have more votes in that area.

That's exactly what happens with FPTP!

Candidates can and do get elected with a very small percentage of the vote. In fact, in a lot of constituencies, the majority of the electorate do not vote for the candidate that ends up representing them in the end. For example, in St Ives, only 38.3% of the electorate voted for the Conservative candidate who won. That means that 61.7% of the electorate did not vote for that candidate.

PR gives the candidate that is most acceptable to the greatest number of people. Under PR, you do need to get a reasonable proportion of the vote to get elected. Under STV, you need to get >1/(x+1) of the vote, where x is the number of seats to be elected. The result is that the elected candidate(s) has/have broad support from the electorate. Using list systems works out the same way. By contrast, with FPTP, you may well end up getting the most votes, but it doesn't necessarily mean that you have a broad level of support across the constituency.

Under PR, you may not have the greatest number of first choice votes, but you do need to gather broad support across the electorate in order to get elected, and most importantly the results are broadly proportional to the first choice of the electorate. And that's what parliament is meant to be: a microcosm of the views of the whole electorate.

Why do you not also quote what I said in my posting extract that you have posted above about the number of General Elections that this said age has allowed me to participate in. That, is the reason, "why it has to do with anything" to use your phrase. Experience of participating in the democratic process time and time again. Not refusing to vote nor ruining my ballot paper.

I do not need to give any reasons for my thinking that FPTP is the system it is, save to say that my own personal belief holds this to be so.

Being older and voting in dozens of FPTP elections does not in itself give you any reason to support FPTP. I can only ascertain that you've spent most/all of your life in a "key marginal" constituency, or a safe seat where you support the dominant party. I grew up in a safe Labour seat (well, safe until last Thursday), and I can assure you it stinks. The election passes by and you barely notice it. No-one bothers campaigning in your constituency because they know they cannot unseat the incumbent, so you get a token number of election leaflets and that's it. There is no democracy.

But, you're going to attribute your fondness for FPTP to a "belief", which tells me that you have no good arguments to retain the system. So any need for further debate has disappeared.
 

Dave1987

On Moderation
Joined
20 Oct 2012
Messages
4,563
So now we can wait how the Tories hold the countries on the mainland of Europe for ransom/hostage.

I am neither pro Europe or anti Europe but Mr Brown signed away a huge amount of powers to Brussels without asking the British people if we wanted it or not. At least the Tories are offering a free vote on whether we stay in or not. Whereas Labour attitude is that they think we should stay in so you don't get a choice.
 

Groningen

Established Member
Joined
14 Jan 2015
Messages
2,866
So surprise surprise that sterling rises when a party that knows how to grow the economy and create jobs gets a majority.

There are no Tories in low wages paying countries.
 

EM2

Established Member
Joined
16 Nov 2008
Messages
7,522
Location
The home of the concrete cow
I am neither pro Europe or anti Europe but Mr Brown signed away a huge amount of powers to Brussels without asking the British people if we wanted it or not. At least the Tories are offering a free vote on whether we stay in or not. Whereas Labour attitude is that they think we should stay in so you don't get a choice.
Why do we need a free vote? We had one in 1973 (or was it 1975?)
Did we vote to join NATO? Did we vote to join the UN? We didn't and we're members of those.
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
9,213
Location
SE London
I am neither pro Europe or anti Europe but Mr Brown signed away a huge amount of powers to Brussels without asking the British people if we wanted it or not. At least the Tories are offering a free vote on whether we stay in or not. Whereas Labour attitude is that they think we should stay in so you don't get a choice.

I don't recall ever being offered a referendum on the coalition Govt's Fixed Term Parliaments Act, or on any of the recent legislation governing data security, or the changes to the education system or the health service of the past few years. Or any of the changes to the powers that the various tiers of local Government have. Or on any of the numerous treaties and agreements that the UK Government has signed with other countries and other international bodies, which implicitly restrict the actions of the UK Government.

In fact, come to think of it, out of the hundreds (thousands?) of pieces of legislation, and (I'm guessing) tens of thousands of changes to regulations etc. that have occurred during my adult lifetime, I cannot recall ever being offered a referendum on a single one of them.

The thing that those who demand a referendum on Europe have never - so far as I can see - explained is why that issue alone should get a referendum when practically nothing else the UK Government does, no matter how major or how significantly it might effect my life, apparently requires one.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
If all you want is a list of the winning candidate for each, this can be got from the .csv file linked from https://yournextmp.com/help/api/

I'd also be interested in fuller results in a machine-readable format

Thanks. But yes, it is the full results I want. I'd like to group some constituencies together and do some calculations to see what the various vote shares and swings were in different regions and sub-regions of the UK. Plus, it would be nice to have the data to hand so I can answer any other random questions that might pop into my head :)
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Try the Wikipedia citations?

Thanks, good idea, not discovered anything so far by pursuing that line, but it's possible - I'll keep looking...
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
... when a party that knows how to grow the economy and create jobs gets a majority.

A somewhat subjective way of putting it.

I think you'll find quite a few people would phrase that more like 'when a party that continually tells untruths about the actions of its predecessor, and knows how to take advantage of and then falsely take credit for the natural economic growth that tends to happen after a recession, and more generally in most years thanks to general technological improvements gets a majority'. That latter version is arguably just as accurate. As has been pointed out, the rise in share prices and the currency is likely to be more to do with the fact that a Government of some description has actually been formed.
 
Last edited:

Xenophon PCDGS

Veteran Member
Joined
17 Apr 2011
Messages
35,436
Location
A typical commuter-belt part of north-west England
me123 said:
But, you're going to attribute your fondness for FPTP to a "belief", which tells me that you have no good arguments to retain the system. So any need for further debate has disappeared.

In a democracy, the ability to personally hold to a "belief" is one of the reasons why people have fought and died to establish this system. Would you rather hold to the "Islamic State" principal of "convert or die"...:shock:

I was also reminded by your comment of the oil painting of the boy summoned before a panel and being asked "When did you last see your father". Are we now to be asked to justify our own personal beliefs, on this website or anywhere else?

I would never ask any other forum member to justify any personally held views, as that surely impinges upon their personal privacy. Am I alone in the holding of this view?
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
44,362
Location
Yorks
Why do we need a free vote? We had one in 1973 (or was it 1975?)
Did we vote to join NATO? Did we vote to join the UN? We didn't and we're members of those.

Hmm, I can see your point, but I'm not sure the constitutional are the same. France, under General De Gaulle pretty much stood aside from NATO without fundamentally changing how France was Governed. I don't think we could reeevaluate our relationship with the continent without it being a pretty fundamental question of the Government of Britain.
 

St Rollox

Member
Joined
2 Jun 2013
Messages
650
I admit to loving the thought of an EU referendum.
Having read this forum during the time of the Scottish referendum, on here during an EU referendum should be a revelation.
Be interesting just how the anti EU side play it.
In the end the Scottish referendum came down to economics, on here the pro union supporters came across as British nationalists.
Even labour supporters ended up coming across as BNP lite.
Certainly the EU referendum should be fun if your interested in politics and neutral regarding the EU.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
44,362
Location
Yorks
I admit to loving the thought of an EU referendum.
Having read this forum during the time of the Scottish referendum, on here during an EU referendum should be a revelation.
Be interesting just how the anti EU side play it.
In the end the Scottish referendum came down to economics, on here the pro union supporters came across as British nationalists.
Even labour supporters ended up coming across as BNP lite.
Certainly the EU referendum should be fun if your interested in politics and neutral regarding the EU.

And how exactly were you able to determine who were Labour supporters?

The strange thing about the Scottish referendum was that so many people calling for separation from the UK, were also desperate to remain in the EU! Did they want to self govern or not?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top