General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[Mojo]

Now all Scottish results are in - SNP on 56, with Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems on 1 each.

 

[Johnuk123]

Won't be long before England can shake off the Scottish, they want it, England want it, what's not to like.

 

[me123]

Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk falls to SNP. Just. Circa 400 vote majority. Michael Moore is yet another big Lib Dem name to be ousted from Scotland.

Final Scottish Tally is:
SNP: 56
Labour: 1
Conservative: 1
Lib Dems: 1

It will be interesting to see how a Conservative majority government in England can justify governing another country that has elected only one Conservative MP by a very narrow majority.

 

[Johnuk123]

Almost certain 3 party leaders will be gone very soon, that must be a first.

 

[me123]

More, surely? Labour, Scottish Labour , Lib Dems, probably UKIP, possibly Greens...

Greens retain Brighton Pavillion on an increased majority of c7000.

 

[Johnuk123]

More, surely? Labour, Scottish Labour , Lib Dems, probably UKIP, possibly Greens...

Greens retain Brighton Pavillion on an increased majority of c7000.

I wasn't counting Scottish labour and can't see the Greens changing.

You could say 4 as Galloway might pack the party in altogether.

 

[Mojo]

It will be interesting to see how a Conservative majority government in England can justify governing another country that has elected only one Conservative MP by a very narrow majority.

This was said last time, but on the other hand, like in 2010, you could argue that Scotland has denied England the opportunity to a Conservative government given the fact that English seats have returned a majority of Conservatives.

 

[yorksrob]

Indeed, if the Greens have increased their share of the vote overall, they will quite rightly see it as progress.

 

[AM9]

It will be interesting to see how a Conservative majority government in England can justify governing another country that has elected only one Conservative MP by a very narrow majority.

In the context of a General Election for a UK Parliament, there is only one country.

 

[Johnuk123]

In the context of a General Election for a UK Parliament, there is only one country.

This is almost certainly the last UK election including Scotland.

After voting reform and Scottish home rule labour will not be in government for many many years.

 

[me123]

This was said last time, but on the other hand, like in 2010, you could argue that Scotland has denied England the opportunity to a Conservative government given the fact that English seats have returned a majority of Conservatives.

The argument last time is slightly different. In 2010, Scotland's vote did not change, yet the government changed quite dramatically. The gripe was that our voice means nothing with the current electoral system. However, whilst Labour were the largest party in Scotland, the Lib Dems & Mr Mundell offered the coalition at least some mandate to govern the country, with their cumulative parties gathering 35.7% of the vote and holding 12 out of 59 seats. Hardly an oveerwhelming majority, but reasonable levels of support under a FPTP system.

This time, the likely governing body with a majority has just 1 MP, and has decreased its share of the vote to just 14.9% of the overall electorate (from 16.7%). How you anyone justify governing a country with so little support?

As for the English wanting the Tories... I can't understand why, but I'm all for English devolution if you guys are, so if you want them feel free to elect them.

I've heard nothing about EVEL overnight, but with a slim majority I suspect it's going to happen.
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In the context of a General Election for a UK Parliament, there is only one country.

The United Kingdom recognises itself is a nation consisting of four countries, one of which is Scotland. This is currently recognised by the UK Government, or rather what was the UK Government.

Furthermore, Scotland's legislature is entirely separate from that of England and Wales, yet much of it is controlled from Westminster. So we're in the bizarre situation that large swathes of our legislature are now going to be controlled by a government that we did not elect. Only 1 out of 59 MPs we returned represents this party. 85.1% of the population did not vote for this party. Their mandate to control our legislature is almost non-existent.

Elsewhere, Mark Reckless loses his UKIP seat to the Conservatives.

 

[Groningen]

So 3 million votes for the UKIP and 1 seat; 1,5 million votes for the SNP and 56 seats. Clearly your democracy is working! Not.

 

[Johnuk123]

However the eventual figures add up one thing is certain English voters have firmly rejected labours class warfare and the politics of envy.

Balls out as well, brilliant.

Miliband is toast.

 

[bb21]

So Balls ballsed up.

This is almost certainly the last UK election including Scotland.

After voting reform and Scottish home rule labour will not be in government for many many years.

I won't be so sure. The electorate do funny things when a party enjoys an apparently unassailable lead. Those sitting on the fence otherwise will not normally be impressed with a party who enjoy a monopoly in Westminster representations.

 

[me123]

So 3 million votes for the UKIP and 1 seat; 1,5 million votes for the SNP and 56 seats. Clearly your democracy is working! Not.

As an SNP supporter, I would still vote yes to proportional representation after today's result. I maintain that FPTP is a terrible system, and today's results demonstrate the issues perfectly. However, in a democratic election, we very recently voted to keep it like this!

Ed Balls loses to the Tories in Morley & Outwood.
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So Balls ballsed up.

You've been waiting to use that all night, haven't you!

 

[bb21]

You've been waiting to use that all night, haven't you!

Just rolled off the end of my tongue really.

I am not particularly keen on the guy, but do feel a little bit sorry for him as I agree with Nick Robinson's assessment on him. His qualities are not really appreciated but he has to accept that his lack of charisma also did not help, especially when alongside someone like Ed Miliband.

 

[Starmill]

We're done. "Nobody will win an outright majority." - they have. Bye Balls. Ed's going. End of.

 

[AM9]

We're done. "Nobody will win an outright majority." - they have. Bye Balls. Ed's going. End of.

End of what?

 

[Senex]

The United Kingdom recognises itself is a nation consisting of four countries, one of which is Scotland. This is currently recognised by the UK Government, or rather what was the UK Government.

I'd define it as a state made up of three-and-a-bit nations, with the Scots, the Welsh, and the English each forming a clear nation (even if one might debate the boundaries a bit!), and the Northern Irish being part of a nation but belonging to a different state from the majority of that nation.

Parallel: the old question on visa applications for East Germany, which asked for "Staatsangehörigkeit" and "Nationalität" in two separate boxes, the answer to the first being "DDR" and to the second "Deutsch".

 

[bb21]

End of what?

End of the suspense and all the speculation I think.

 

[AM9]

End of the suspense and all the speculation I think.

OK, I suppose that's true. It's a shame the poster didn't finish his sentence.

 

[Groningen]

If i am correct than the SNP has 56 of the 59 seats in Scotland. Than i wonder; in the recent referendum it was not possible to claim the victory. So not all todays SNP-voters wanted an independence from England (United Kingdom) a few weeks/months ago.

 

[Starmill]

OK, I suppose that's true. It's a shame the poster didn't finish his sentence.

The end of speculation about the results, and the end of Ed Miliband's leadership. Those were the things I mentioned, no? So no need for cheeky comments.

 

[me123]

If i am correct than the SNP has 56 of the 59 seats in Scotland. Than i wonder; in the recent referendum it was not possible to claim the victory. So not all todays SNP-voters wanted an independence from England (United Kingdom) a few weeks/months ago.

About 45% of the electorate voted for independence about 6 months ago. Subsequently, about 50% of the electorate voted for the SNP yesterday. If we assume that SNP voting and support for independence are the same, you could argue that there's been a small but significant increase in support for independence.

However, that's far too simplistic a model. Some Yes voters may have voted for unionist candidates for various reasons, some No voters may support the SNP in this election for various reasons. We cannot say that 50% of the electorate would back independence if another referendum were held tomorrow.

Contrary to the viewpoint publicised by many people, the SNP are no longer a single issue party. They have proven themselves capable of governing and have a comprehensive manifesto. They have proven themselves to be a major player in Scottish politics. And, like many other political parties, you can support them without agreeing to everything that they say. And whilst independence is without a doubt the raison d'être of the SNP, I think a small but significant number of voters are not necessarily pro-independence.

 

[bnm]

Equally, no need to be so precious.

 

[bb21]

However, that's far too simplistic a model.

I agree.

I think it would be impossible to say whether there was more support for independence today compared to when the referendum was held. Different priorities play on people's minds at these two events. Today it was about voting for a representative in the central government who would be fighting for their local interests, so it makes sense that SNP (who claim to represent Scottish interests and who by all accounts fought a very good campaign) were voted in. As Nicola Sturgeon said herself, it was not about independence today.

When it comes to independence, many of those who voted for SNP today may well feel that we would be better as a union than separate territories.

 

[Oswyntail]

I am glad one can trust the British to be sensible. It would be a refreshing change now to drop knee-jerk reactions to Tory policies, and actually examine them.
Scotland is interesting, as I suspect there is not so much a surge towards independence and nationalism, as a rejection of Labour's patronising assumption of permanence. The ground there is now cleared for a more constructive realignment, so long as realistic debate is allowed.

 

[Johnuk123]

Miliband is toast.

Blimey, I thought he might see the day out but after such a humiliating snub by the British public and utter rejection of his policies no surprise he's off.

 

[me123]

Farage came a close second Thanet South to the Tories. He seems highly likely to step down as he said.
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Jim Murphy blaming the SNP and "circumstances" for his party's failings at the moment on the BBC. But he hasn't quit. He spoke about "going forward" and "learning lessons".

As an SNP supporter, I'm quite happy to see Murphy leading the party forward indefinitely.

 

[TheNewNo2]

Farage came a close second Thanet South to the Tories. He seems highly likely to step down as he said.

Unfortunately, I suspect that, like George Galloway, losing won't stop him.