General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[Marton]

Ah, well I'd consider the West Riding to be the true North of England, rather than the empty bits, but maybe I'm biased

The WR has huge areas of emptiness all the way to Sedbergh.

 

[ExRes]

I wouldn't mind that idea. SNP are a party I want to vote for and I'm in England!

Just a throught here...
Split England into several devolved regions, but based on the party they vote for and not regions. A Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and Minor parties assembly. So you really do get the government you vote for.
Any comments on my party assembly idea?

Has anyone ever costed the idea of devolved regions versus the current system ?, when I worked for the Post Office they 'brilliantly' split into three main constituents, Letters, Parcels and Counters, that managed to create three entirely separate levels of hierarchy, three of everything that used to be one of everything, so will this not be the case with devolved regions ending with the man/woman in the street paying ever increasing taxes to prop up dozens of self important suits ?

 

[TheNewNo2]

I've just been on holiday in Cornwall for a week, and so did a semi-count of election signs I saw.

1st - Tories & Lib Dems (joint equal on lots)
3rd - UKIP (about 8)
4th - Mebyon Kernow, the Party of Cornwall (6 or so)
5th - Labour (3, though it took six days to see a single one)
6th - Greens (1)

Interestingly the Tory signs were almost always in fields, the Lib Dem ones in front gardens. Also of note is that UKIP don't seem to want anyone to know the names of their candidates, that or they're trying to get a telephone number elected.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

I would I have no time what so ever for the SNP or Welsh Nationalists or English Nationalists for that matter, I consider myself British first and foremost and have no time for those nationalists who are really just an excuse because they don't happen to like the British government that's in power at the moment.

I'm not a nationalist. I'm saying that each party gets their own assembly so everyone gets the government they voted for. So rveryone's happy. Constant left-right-left-right-left swings defeat any progress and keep half the public unhappy.
There's nothing nation specific about it. You might want to have a more critical look at what Britain First actually does as they are not a good party.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Im Sorry if it a bit off topic but my Wife and I feeling very under decided to whom we shall vote for come May 7th my work is self employed but im not company registared
Im 60 years old i have 6 years for retirement with no private pension we sold our house 10 years ago and now living in a rented bungalow.My wife is 57 and working 31 hours a week with a 41 years service record . So looking at the brief descriptions and the predicament of ourselfs Please can someone point our way the best party to vote for.
Kind Regards Dave/Lillian.

If you vote, remember your vote is wasted unless you vote for 1st or 2nd place currently predicted.

So just pick the most socialist or fascist or centrist that has a chance of winning in your area. Vote for the pollitical side you believe is best out the likely top two.

If you have no preference just consider to vote for or against the current Con-Dem coalition government based on how they have wrecked/helped things from your viewpoint.

No party will help pension things as far as I'm aware by much. But Tories could cut tax for higher savers while Labour may make saving easier for lower incomes.

 

[47802]

I'm not a nationalist. I'm saying that each party gets their own assembly so everyone gets the government they voted for. So rveryone's happy. Constant left-right-left-right-left swings defeat any progress and keep half the public unhappy.
There's nothing nation specific about it. You might want to have a more critical look at what Britain First actually does as they are not a good party.

Nationalism is just a political excuse, we are a single Island and essentially all the same people, there are plenty of parts of the country (UK) that don't get the government they want but don't come out oh well we should have its own government because we don't like the UK government, A devolved government for England will end up as an expensive fractured mess, and SNP will just keep on pushing for Independence.

And if you really want a proper devolved government for this country then you need to essentially scrap our present system and come up with an entirely new structure, not the current back of a fag packet scheme's

 

[TheKnightWho]

Nationalism is just a political excuse, we are a single Island and essentially all the same people, there are plenty of parts of the country (UK) that don't get the government they want but don't come out oh well we should have its own government because we don't like the UK government, A devolved government for England will end up as an expensive fractured mess, and SNP will just keep on pushing for Independence.

Nationalism is not "just an excuse" and is extremely complicated. To act like it's Scotland trying to get special treatment ignores their history, and geography had nothing to do with nation.

In fact, nothing tangible defines what a nation is except what people identify as.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

Nationalism is just a political excuse, we are a single Island and essentially all the same people, there are plenty of parts of the country (UK) that don't get the government they want but don't come out oh well we should have its own government because we don't like the UK government, A devolved government for England will end up as an expensive fractured mess, and SNP will just keep on pushing for Independence.

And if you really want a proper devolved government for this country then you need to essentially scrap our present system and come up with an entirely new structure, not the current back of a fag packet scheme's

I'm not suggesting an English parliament, I hate that idea.
What I am saying is all Labour MPs vote in an assembly just for Labour constituencies and the same for all other parties regardless of member nation. So we all get who we vote for.

Is it okay if one area is never represented by the government? No!
All want and deserve the (devolved in this case) government they vote for. This is no fag packet idea as I don't smoke nor haven't considered this. It could be done for free by just having a seperate meeting for all MPs to discuss with their own party.

Current polls suggest a neck and neck Lab-Con number of MPs. Why should one of those massive groups mis-out only to swap around again and again? My way ensures that votes matter more. And I consider that the only definition of people is multiple persons, no one's alike in political or other views as you suggest the UK is.

 

[47802]

Nationalism is not "just an excuse" and is extremely complicated. To act like it's Scotland trying to get special treatment ignores their history, and geography had nothing to do with nation.

In fact, nothing tangible defines what a nation is except what people identify as.

Yes there is History between the two countries which is dug up by the Nationalists, but essentially we all the same people, technically I'm half English and half Scottish but so what, a lot of Nationalism is just petty nonsense, and the SNP is just an excuse to try and get a socialist government in Scotland, disguised as a Scottish home rule utopia.

 

[northwichcat]

I have been wondering...
The Tories keep getting Ed to deny any possibillity of a coalition with anyone (for some reason).

But both Tory and Labour are on 280ish seats according to Ashcroft's polls.
The Lib Dems will be half gone if not more, so how can Tories get in without SNP help? Are they the one's planning a deal and don't want Labour to beat them to it??

Last time the polls expected the Lib Dems and Labour to get enough seats to be able to form a Coalition together, that didn't happen due to the increase in votes for the Lib Dems not securing as many extra Lib Dem seats as predicted. It could be this time the SNP do not actually win enough as many seats as the polls are predicting.

The polls are also predicting a lot more votes for the Greens and UKIP but not necessarily more seats. That prediction could be correct but then it could be wrong and both parties may get a few seats opposed to one or two.

At the moment we can be pretty certain that Labour + the Tories would have enough seats to form a 2 party government (even though that's likely a very last resort) but anything else we won't know for certain until Friday.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Yes there is History between the two countries which is dug up by the Nationalists, but essentially we all the same people, technically I'm half English and half Scottish but so what, a lot of Nationalism is just petty nonsense, and the SNP is just an excuse to try and get a socialist government in Scotland, disguised as a Scottish home rule utopia.

No, nationalism is as alive as people want it to be. Saying "we are the same people" when a lot of Scottish people clearly don't believe that to be true is more nonsense than anything else.

Or should we just do away with nations altogether and say there's just one race: the human race? I can guarantee any reason you give for the UK being separate from Europe or whatever (other than my reason) fails as a good definition of what makes a nation independent. This is not a new debate, and some of the essentialist (i.e. "This geographical area is tied to our nation", "This race is tied to our nation", "This historical connection is tied to our nation") reasons for nationhood are exactly what led to the justifications for starting both WW1 and WW2 - along with many of the tensions that fanned the flames.

Now, I'm not trying to start a long debate about why the world wars started, but I'm making the point that nationhood isn't tied to anything except consensus, and consensus can be overturned if there's the will to do so. But equally you don't get to call it nonsense just because you don't happen to like it - because that reasoning does away with nations altogether.

 

[northwichcat]

What I am saying is all Labour MPs vote in an assembly just for Labour constituencies and the same for all other parties regardless of member nation. So we all get who we vote for.

In the consistency I live 22.6% of people voted Lib Dem in the last election but over half voted Conservative. The population of the town I live in is under 22.6% of the number of electorates in the consistency I live in. Therefore, in theory the whole town could voted Lib Dem and yet gets represented by a Conservative because of the other towns and villages in the constituency.

I'd be very surprised if that was the case here but it's possible it could happen with some towns in diverse consistencies making it very difficult for everyone to be represented by who they vote for.

 

[47802]

No, nationalism is as alive as people want it to be. Saying "we are the same people" when a lot of Scottish people clearly don't believe that to be true is more nonsense than anything else.

Or should we just do away with nations altogether and say there's just one race: the human race?

.

Not a bad idea in view but not likely to happen, but it doesn't alter the fact in my view that the rise of so called Nationalism between the home nation's is just a political excuse. Many people in the North don't like the current government but unlike Scotland we carn't just turn around and say well we are really a different country and should have our own government or be independent instead. Then of course would the Scots be quite so keen on self government or Independence in particular if they didn't have any Oil?

Its a bit like my local council many people say that there is too much concentration on Huddersfield to the detriment of other areas so some want the council split, then if that happened they would probably say there is too much concentration on Dewsbury to the detriment of the area I live and so it goes on.

 

[northwichcat]

The Independent claims the options will be

1. Labour “confidence and supply” government

Ed Miliband would get agreement from the SNP or Lib Dems (or both) to support Labour in votes on confidence and the budget.

The cost to Miliband: Would have to agree extra cash for schools and extra devolution to Scotland to win over the SNP.

Advantage: Stability. Allows the government to plan ahead without the constant threat of losing a confidence vote.

Disadvantage: Leaves Labour at the mercy of smaller parties and disillusioned MPs.

2. Labour-led coalition

Miliband would do a formal deal with the Lib Dems, including ministerial posts and a joint government programme.

The cost to Miliband: Having to compromise over key plans – notably his economic strategy over the next five years.

Advantage: Allows Miliband and Clegg to present a five-year programme.

Disadvantage: Miliband would face anger from left-wingers, while Lib Dems may alienate right-leaning supporters.

3. Labour minority government

Ed Miliband would depend on the support of SNP, Lib Dems and others on a vote-by-vote basis.

The cost to Miliband: Permanently living on the edge.

Advantage: Avoids wrangling over a common programme. Labour would argue that the smaller parties face the wrath of the voters if they forced an election.

Disadvantage: Daily instability with the government facing the constant threat of defeat. Miliband could face a backlash over the influence wielded by the SNP.

4. Conservative minority government

David Cameron would have to rely on Lib Dem and DUP MPs, as well as any Ukip MPs, for daily survival.

The cost to Cameron: Permanent threat of Commons defeat.

Advantage: Allows him to put forward a Tory Queen’s Speech and challenge other MPs to vote it down.

Disadvantage: Threat of Commons chaos combined with dealing with anger on Tory benches that he has failed again to win an overall majority.

5. Conservative “confidence and supply” government

David Cameron would ask for support from the Lib Dems, the eight or nine DUP MPs and any Ukip MPs in confidence and budget votes.

The cost to Cameron: Would have to promise the Lib Dems extra money for education.

Advantage: The markets would welcome this.

Disadvantage: Almost every Commons vote would leave Tories vulnerable to defeat by a Labour-nationalist alliance. A gruelling five years (if it lasts that long).

6. A Conservative-led coalition

David Cameron would offer the Lib Dems seats at the Cabinet and a new Coalition agreement. If numbers are tight, he could try to bring in the DUP.

The cost for Cameron: Major concessions to the Lib Dems, renewing accusations of the yellow tail wagging the blue dog.

Advantage: Lets Mr Cameron plan for five years.

Disadvantage: Right-wing MPs would fume at a fresh deal with the Lib Dems (but not the DUP).

http://i100.independent.co.uk/artic...n-the-event-of-a-hung-parliament--gJWJWWbF_lb

 

[ExRes]

Also of note is that UKIP don't seem to want anyone to know the names of their candidates, that or they're trying to get a telephone number elected.

You should have made a detour to South Devon then, no such shyness down here as UKIP posters are prevalent, plentiful and fully informative

 

[TheKnightWho]

Not a bad idea in view but not likely to happen, but it doesn't alter the fact in my view that the rise of so called Nationalism between the home nation's is just a political excuse. Many people in the North don't like the current government but unlike Scotland we carn't just turn around and say well we are really a different country and should have our own government or be independent instead. Then of course would the Scots be quite so keen on self government or Independence in particular if they didn't have any Oil?

Its a bit like my local council many people say that there is too much concentration on Huddersfield to the detriment of other areas so some want the council split, then if that happened they would probably say there is too much concentration on Dewsbury to the detriment of the area I live and so it goes on.

Well frankly I think it's highly patronising that you think it is just an excuse.

People can become nationalistic because of alienation from the central government. It's not like the ex-Soviet states that are now countries suddenly became nations because they were dissatisfied with the USSR - no, Kazakhstan, Georgia etc. go back hundreds/thousands of years, but it was only when they had the opportunity that they broke away from the central government.

Scotland is seeing a resurgence of nationalism because many who identify as Scottish are no longer satisfied with the UK government in general, and so aren't tolerating it. It's as simple as that. It wouldn't be any different than if there was strong Cornish or Welsh nationalism, but so far the Cornish and Welsh people seem to be generally happy voting for the current parties and not Plaid.

 

[47802]

Well frankly I think it's highly patronising that you think it is just an excuse.

People can become nationalistic because of alienation from the central government. It's not like the ex-Soviet states that are now countries suddenly became nations because they were dissatisfied with the USSR - no, Kazakhstan, Georgia etc. go back hundreds/thousands of years, but it was only when they had the opportunity that they broke away from the central government.

Scotland is seeing a resurgence of nationalism because many who identify as Scottish are no longer satisfied with the UK government in general, and so aren't tolerating it. It's as simple as that. It wouldn't be any different than if there was strong Cornish or Welsh nationalism, but so far the Cornish and Welsh people seem to be generally happy voting for the current parties and not Plaid.

Or more likely because there's no oil in Wales and if you think that's patronising so be it.

 

[St Rollox]

Yes there is History between the two countries which is dug up by the Nationalists, but essentially we all the same people, technically I'm half English and half Scottish but so what, a lot of Nationalism is just petty nonsense, and the SNP is just an excuse to try and get a socialist government in Scotland, disguised as a Scottish home rule utopia.

Where do i sign up?
Btw, is there difference between the nationalism of the Celtic fringe and British nationalism as shown by unionist politicians in Scotland.

 

[northwichcat]

Polls predict 3.9% of people to vote for the SNP and yet they're expected to get over 50 seats. The Lib Dems are expected to get around half that number of seats yet 8.1% of people are expected to vote for them, while UKIP are expected to get more votes than the Lib Dems yet only a few seats.

Possibly Labour, the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and UKIP will all agree that some kind of review is needed after the election even if they don't agree on the solution.

 

[Johnuk123]

In the very long history of stupidity in electioneering this ridiculous stunt by Milliband must be up there as no.1.
I can't imagine any true labour supporters seeing that and thinking what a sensible idea it is.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

In the very long history of stupidity in electioneering this ridiculous stunt by Milliband must be up there as no.1.

He did not dress as Moses but in his suit as usual. Don't believe a word the Daily Mail say. If it was just a cheesy stunt he'd have done 10 commandments. This was photo edited. I bet someone could easily make any MP look silly.

 

[St Rollox]

Polls predict 3.9% of people to vote for the SNP and yet they're expected to get over 50 seats. The Lib Dems are expected to get around half that number of seats yet 8.1% of people are expected to vote for them, while UKIP are expected to get more votes than the Lib Dems yet only a few seats.

Possibly Labour, the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and UKIP will all agree that some kind of review is needed after the election even if they don't agree on the solution.

How many seats would the LibDems get if their entire 8.1% vote was only in London?

 

[Johnuk123]

His nameis Miliband and he did not dress as Moses but in his suit as usual. Don't believe a word the Daily Mail say. If it was just a cheesy stunt he'd have done 10 commandments.

I made a spelling mistake very sorry, so did you.

So you're saying he didn't dress up as Moses then ? blimey I believe everything that's in the Daily Mail I'll have to start reading the Daily Mirror to get to the truth.

 

[MidnightFlyer]

... he did not dress as Moses but in his suit as usual... This was photo editted.

Absolutely screaming.

 

[Johnuk123]

Absolutely screaming.

I thought that, it's also not a good idea to highlight a spelling mistake by making two of your own.

 

[northwichcat]

His name is Miliband not Milliband and he did not dress as Moses but in his suit as usual.

When I saw it on the news yesterday I thought of Animal Farm not Moses.

I bet someone could easily make any MP look silly.

George Osborne can do that without any 'help.'

 

[TheKnightWho]

Or more likely because there's no oil in Wales and if you think that's patronising so be it.

Or perhaps I think there's more to nationalism than you and I'm happy to respect that when it's not a group I'm personally part of. I get that you're half-Scottish, but you as a single person calling it nonsense does not suddenly dispel the entire idea behind Scottish nationalism. It's not like everyone who strongly believes Scotland should be independent is secretly thinking they want to nab the oil - it's used as proof that it might be viable, but it's not the reason behind it.

And Wales has been integrated with England for longer and more strongly, so that's why I don't think it's so strong. Doesn't mean Wales is suddenly not a separate nation either though.

 

[47802]

When I saw it on the news yesterday I thought of Animal Farm not Moses.



'

More to the point is those so called pledge's are so general that they as almost meaningless and pointless anyway

An 'NHS with time to care' What!

 

[MidnightFlyer]

More to the point is those so called pledge's are so general that they as almost meaningless and pointless anyway

An 'NHS with time to care' What!

Indeed. Try being that bland or trite with targets in any other job and you'd get done for trying to pull a fast one.

 

[47802]

Or perhaps I think there's more to nationalism than you and I'm happy to respect that when it's not a group I'm personally part of. I get that you're half-Scottish, but you as a single person calling it nonsense does not suddenly dispel the entire idea behind Scottish nationalism. It's not like everyone who strongly believes Scotland should be independent is secretly thinking they want to nab the oil - it's used as proof that it might be viable, but it's not the reason behind it.

And Wales has been integrated with England for longer and more strongly, so that's why I don't think it's so strong. Doesn't mean Wales is suddenly not a separate nation either though.

Well we will have to disagree on that, I have no objection to the different histories and culture's of England, Scotland, and Wales but from what I see political Nationalism as I largely just an excuse and expediency and a deliberate attempt to create division and dissatisfaction.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

I made a spelling mistake very sorry, so did you.

So you're saying he didn't dress up as Moses then ? blimey I believe everything that's in the Daily Mail I'll have to start reading the Daily Mirror to get to the truth.

I'll suggest the "i" newspaper. It's cheap and not politicised aswell as concise. Sorry about the Miliband name spelling comment. I'll remove it...
But isn't that image portraying Ed as a hero who freed slaves as in the bible?
Hardly a bad image is it.