General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[NorthernSpirit]

To me both Cameron and Milliband sound the same. I did read somewhere that Labour have about a decade left before they self destruct themselves and the Lib Dems have been in self destruct mode since the 6th May 2010.

What gets me is that people will still vote Labour after what they did in the last few years they were in, for example claiming for plastic bags, kitkats, lightbulbs, duckhouses, etc. To me that is stealing from their own people and I'm not siding with the Tories either as they also did similar.

I think the term Blue Labour, Red Tories is quite apt regarding the first debates I've seen.
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In other news, Mr Farage, his wife and young children have been chased out of a pub by some protesters this afternoon. According to Farage, his children were so scared that they ran off into hiding.

I suspect this incident has increased UKIP's vote by a couple of thousand at the general election. Something these idiotic protesters don't realise... If they don't like his polices, debate (and vote) against him; don't threaten him and his family, particularly as his children haven't chosen their father.

Sadly the idiots that attacked the MEP have help increase more votes for UKIP, who I will add are planning on making the 1st March and the 23rd April as public holidays on the repected countries Saint's days. To me - that is democracy.

The idiot protesters are usually from Labour (no suprise there then), SWP, Hope Not Hate, Unite Against Freedom and all the other unsocial socalist splinter groups who are doing a great job of helping turning the country a nice shade of purple.
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I don't want to totally dismiss UKIP in Labour heartlands, but I pretty much file them along with the British National Party.

Its worth knowing that the BNP are more authortarian than UKIP, UKIP is a Libetarian party i.e. let people just get on with their lives and the govenment only deals with the more important stuff.

I work with someone who used to vote Labour at every given moment, but after what had happened in Rotherham, they've changed their party aligance to UKIP instead. Yes UKIP aren't perfect, but they could be a damn sight better at what we've had for the past 40 odd years.

 

[St Rollox]

Oh I'm worrying, have you seen the way their 'supporters' and councillors have been behaving recently? Remind me, who is leader of the SNP? Is it Wee Nippy or Alex Salmond? He seems to be running amok at the moment and no one seems to be stopping him...

I'm sure since we didn't get independence those "down south" won't mind the SNP taking control of their government.

Btw, you don't like SNP fair enough but not liking your own party leader is a strange one.
How do you expect anybody in Scotland to vote labour when you as a labour party member don't even like him?
At the of the day Gary Labour's Scottish problems come from no one but themselves.
Eight leaders in two decades kinda tells us something.
And that's coming from somebody who voted Old Labour in the days when socialism wasn't a dirty word.

 

[GaryMcEwan]

I'm sure since we didn't get independence those "down south" won't mind the SNP taking control of their government.

Btw, you don't like SNP fair enough but not liking your own party leader is a strange one.
How do you expect anybody in Scotland to vote labour when you as a labour party member don't even like him?
At the of the day Gary Labour's Scottish problems come from no one but themselves.
Eight leaders in two decades kinda tells us something.
And that's coming from somebody who voted Old Labour in the days when socialism wasn't a dirty word.

I voted for David Miliband for the UK Leader. I'm a Scottish resident so my party leader is Jim Murphy. As Johann Lamont said, we're not a branch office of the London party...

Aye right, there will be out roar if Dosie Hosie and the mob down south start running riot, especially if Wee Eck gets in. Although it would be good to see Dennis Skinner tear into them on a daily basis...

 

[MidnightFlyer]

... UKIP is a Libetarian party...

No it isn't. It's slightly less statist / authoritarian than most of the other mainstream parties but nowhere near being libertarian. It had shades of it a while ago but they vanished as soon as they gained general popularity.

 

[NorthernSpirit]

No it isn't. It's slightly less statist / authoritarian than most of the other mainstream parties but nowhere near being libertarian. It had shades of it a while ago but they vanished as soon as they gained general popularity.

The Greens want "Agenda 21" which I will add is 24/7 round the clock monitoring of all citizens night and day. Labour, Tories, Lib Dems and the Greens want to be in the EU. Labour part privatised the NHS, the Tories (and to an extent Lib Dems too) have also attempted to part privatise the NHS a bit more.

The social engerneering that has been going on for sometime is begining to wake up from this experiment.

The four way grid thing that is shown at the moment elsewhere online is from 2010. Political parties can and sometime do move up and down, UKIP would, in the grid, be on the first row of libertarian which is ajacent to authoritarian. So on the boundary.

We'll find out what's happening on the 8th May.

 

[St Rollox]

I voted for David Miliband for the UK Leader. I'm a Scottish resident so my party leader is Jim Murphy. As Johann Lamont said, we're not a branch office of the London party...

Aye right, there will be out roar if Dosie Hosie and the mob down south start running riot, especially if Wee Eck gets in. Although it would be good to see Dennis Skinner tear into them on a daily basis...

Why do think it is that Labour has come out of the Scottish referendum doing so badly in the opinion polls.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

So it's started. As of 3 hours ago our MPs are no longer MPs, and we have lots of candidates instead...

 

[infobleep]

I fully agree with you here. Having watched the debate I thought a fair few of the questions that Miliband was asked were unfair, irrelevant and borderline patronising - even after all of that I think that he was very composed throughout the length of the programme. At times I thought Cameron looked nervous even with the sympathetic treatment he received. Despite that I think he was extremely poor and very unconvincing

Prior to the programme I was already planning to vote Labour but the way Miliband performed on the evening has cemented my position further

I get the impression that some people hear what they want to hear from these debates . I personally think both were given a hard time by Paxman and only he won, which given he isn't standing for parliament isn't that helpful if trying to choose.

Not that you are as you already know. I am fairly certain I'll vote for my local MP and she seems to be good.. Just so happens she's a conservative. That doesn't mean I'd vote conservative at a local election.

Anyway it's now the season of purdah when tv/radio and the public sector ha e to be totally unbiased.

Whilst in the mean time newspapers and social media can say what they like. Democracy in action!

 

[PaulLothian]

The four way grid thing that is shown at the moment elsewhere online is from 2010. Political parties can and sometime do move up and down...

Here is the 2015 version http://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2015

and the 2010 one for comparison http://www.politicalcompass.org/ukparties2010
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Why do think it is that Labour has come out of the Scottish referendum doing so badly in the opinion polls.

Several reasons - I say that rather sadly as someone who was, in the past, a Labour supporter.

The crucial mistake was their alliance in Better Together with the Tories and LibDems, which resulted in their sharing a common language of denigration of the ambitions of a lot of Scots, and offending a lot of their erstwhile supporters along the way! It would have been possible to support a Labour for No campaign that could have been rather more reconciliatory in tone.

I have no idea what sort of offensive discussions might have gone on in 'social media', which I have never tried to come to terms with. However, in terms of speeches and debates on television, in my opinion, the most insulting comments came from Labour, rather than their allies in BT. Why on earth they decided to adopt this line, I cannot imagine, but it was the key to a number of my friends deciding to abandon Labour, at the independence referendum and ever after.

Labour has had an unhealthy tendency to treat Scotland as its fiefdom, and its voters of little importance other than at elections. Perhaps not surprising when they had a monopoly in many parts of the country. There are honourable exceptions, including my own MP, who does appear to have a socially responsible voting record compared with many of his colleagues.

Labour is now well to the right of the SNP in most of its policies ( I earlier posted a link to this chart http://www.politicalcompass.org/ukparties2015). If they want to hold power in Scotland, a country that appears generally more socialist (with a small s) than the rest of the UK, this poses a serious problem for Labour.

Jim Murphy has been trying unsuccessfully to campaign on two main approaches, both flawed. Firstly, he is working hard to suggest that a Labour result of Westminster elections will be better services in Scotland, although the services in question are controlled by Holyrood! Secondly, many Scots consider it ridiculous that he spends so much campaigning time pumping out the incorrect message that the biggest party gets to govern. Given that most people with whom I have discussed this understand that that is false, Murphy does himself no favours. Several people have commented that if that is his best message, rather than focusing on what Labour could achieve, he might as well give up now.

In my view, the only possible way forward for Labour in Scotland (I gather that it is in fact not a separate organisation as they would like to suggest) is to declare themselves genuinely independent of UK Labour and move politically towards the left, while setting themselves up to avoid cronyism and getting rid of their political dinosaurs. Interestingly, I heard much the same point being made by Labour supporters during the independence campaign.

There is still a niche in Scotland for Labour, but how or whether it can change course to get there is the question!

 

[Tetchytyke]

Jim Murphy is widely regarded as an idiot. I thought his one-upmanship with Nicola Sturgeon- she did cannabis, he "can't remember" sniffing glue- was hilarious.

I know several Scottish Labour voters who've switched off simply because they perceive him as insulting their intelligence. The scare tactics of "vote SNP, get Cameron" don't work and won't work, because everyone knows the SNP won't work with the Conservatives, so it won't make a jot of difference.

Scottish Labour won't start to turn things around until they stop campaigning negatively and start selling themselves as a positive change. Johann Lamont understood this, but she was hounded out. But Lamont also showed something else: Labour need to work out whether Scottish Labour is a separate party or a branch office. At the minute it is both and neither, which is really not helping them.

 

[Oswyntail]

Why do think it is that Labour has come out of the Scottish referendum doing so badly in the opinion polls.

I suspect that Scotland is broadly similar to the rest of the UK, if not the world, in that most folk are generally centrist. Over the last hundred years or so, the UK has been dominated by two centrist parties, that like to pretend occasionally that they and their opponents are not. In this context, opinion polls are fairly meaningless, as there is little fundamental difference.
However, Scots do like a good protest - in the 19th century they made a whole industry out of not being English. Traditionally, the protest went to the Liberals, leaving the two main parties to slug it out, often literally. This changed in the 80s with the Conservative retreat, so Labour became the establishment, and SNP rose on the ticket of not being establishment (which, of course, they are, but that's another myth). In a two-party state, if you are seen as establishment, you are going to be massacred if there is a need for a protest. Simple as that. Soon the SNP will find itself in the way of a protest, and who knows where folk will turn. But there is probably still the same distribution of voters as there is in the rest of the UK.

 

[PaulLothian]

Jim Murphy is widely regarded as an idiot.

As are so many of those around him...

With friends like those, does Scotland need enemies?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

To me both Cameron and Milliband sound the same.

If Cameron ever had sight of what you say about, his first visit would be to a speech therapist...

Could not resist the humour inherent in my understanding of the wording of your posting
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So it's started. As of 3 hours ago our MPs are no longer MPs, and we have lots of candidates instead...

We now face a sustained period of attrition by broadcasters in both television and radio being given carte blanche to try to beat their audiences into mental submission with patronising views that reflect the points of view that THEY see as important.

Heavens above, these broadcasters must really worry when the electorate go out to vote when they have made their own voting choices, irrespective of such unwanted waffle.

 

[radamfi]

Labour is now well to the right of the SNP in most of its policies

However, they have still maintained bus deregulation despite being in office since 2008. They had previously supported the end of deregulation but quietly dropped the policy before their first term in government. It has taken a Labour MSP to put forward a bus reregulation bill. In England, Milliband has recently pledged to end bus deregulation and even the Conservatives have let Greater Manchester have bus powers as part of the devolution deal.

So the SNP are the most right-wing in their continued perseverance with bus deregulation.

 

[Tetchytyke]

However, they have still maintained bus deregulation despite being in office since 2008. They had previously supported the end of deregulation but quietly dropped the policy before their first term in government

It's a complete mystery why a political party bankrolled by Ann Gloag and Brian Souter would do such a thing.

 

[Busaholic]

It's a complete mystery why a political party bankrolled by Ann Gloag and Brian Souter would do such a thing.

Not sure Donald Trump would approve either, once the concept of bus travel had been explained to him.

 

[90sWereBetter]

So the ITV leader's debate has already descended into a poo-slinging contest. I reckon Nicola Sturgeon's gonna win this as things stand. Miliband and Clegg are giving it a good go, as is Leanne Wood. Natalie Bennett is being hopeless as usual, Cameron's sweating and trying to dodge questions, and Farage is being that bratty kid at school trying to start spats, as well as blaming everything on immigrants.

 

[Bishopstone]

Interesting (I think) national opinion poll tonight:

CON - 37% (+1)
LAB - 35% (+1)
UKIP - 12% (-1)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 5% (+1)
(YouGov - obviously pre-debate)

So Tories and Labour both up, and both at or beyond 35%. I've long suspected the 'surges' would unwind the closer we get to polling day. I continue to believe the SNP surge will also unwind, in part, and Labour will do better in Scotland than is currently predicted.

 

[richw]

Interesting (I think) national opinion poll tonight:

CON - 37% (+1)
LAB - 35% (+1)
UKIP - 12% (-1)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 5% (+1)
(YouGov - obviously pre-debate)

So Tories and Labour both up, and both at or beyond 35%. I've long suspected the 'surges' would unwind the closer we get to polling day. I continue to believe the SNP surge will also unwind, in part, and Labour will do better in Scotland than is currently predicted.

There was a snap poll 1 hour in and UKIP had jumped up a lot.

 

[Bishopstone]

There was a snap poll 1 hour in and UKIP had jumped up a lot.

My view on Farage's performance is that it will have rallied his core vote and activists, whilst turning-off almost everybody else. No doubt that was the intention, and as a tactic it has merit.

 

[richw]

My view on Farage's performance is that it will have rallied his core vote and activists, whilst turning-off almost everybody else. No doubt that was the intention, and as a tactic it has merit.

There is another poll, where he has got the highest percentage of people who thought he was most impressive.
He also got the highest percentage of people who thought he was least impressive.

Makes him look like marmite- love or hate.

 

[Searle]

My view on Farage's performance is that it will have rallied his core vote and activists, whilst turning-off almost everybody else. No doubt that was the intention, and as a tactic it has merit.

There is another poll, where he has got the highest percentage of people who thought he was most impressive.
He also got the highest percentage of people who thought he was least impressive.

Makes him look like marmite- love or hate.

He just seemed to spout the usual (bull**** imo). Nothing changes.

Thought it was a gutsy performance from Clegg after the past 5 years. I enjoyed the bit when he told Miliband to apologize!

Cameron was pretty dull: didn't say much, and what he did say, it wasn't very inspiring. As much as I dislike Miliband, he's so much more confident now than when he became the Labour leader, which was nice to see.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

He just seemed to spout the usual (bull**** imo). Nothing changes.

Yes, I was a bit surprised that none of the other leaders bothered challenging him (Farage) significantly on his silliness. Did they all figure it was best to just ignore it?

Thought it was a gutsy performance from Clegg after the past 5 years. I enjoyed the bit when he told Miliband to apologize!

That was quite a dramatic moment. What surprised me was that Miliband didn't make the obvious (and IMO completely correct) reply of 'Despite all your propaganda, we didn't wreck the economy. There was a worldwide recession. Why should I apologize for something that we didn't do?'

In a way for me that seems to sum up the problem Labour has: A message that is in many ways very sensible, but somehow they don't seem to communicate it.

Cameron was pretty dull: didn't say much, and what he did say, it wasn't very inspiring. As much as I dislike Miliband, he's so much more confident now than when he became the Labour leader, which was nice to see.

Yes, Cameron did seem to be keeping his head down quite a bit. And he didn't look very comfortable at times either. I'm guessing the Conservatives figured their best strategy was to go risk-free and not say much in order to avoid the risk of any gaffes.

 

[TheJRB]

Very interesting to watch tonight.

My own opinions on each:

Natalie Bennett, Green - I think it was her performance the surprised me the most but in the sense that it was somewhat lacklustre. I think although the Greens will doubtless do a lot better in this election than last in number of votes, they seem to be perhaps the most left leaning and thus alienate certain voters (although arguably anybody not so left leaning would probably not consider the Greens in the first place!). Naturally the emphasis on the environment was important and welcome as far as I'm concerned; nobody else seems to talk about it anymore.

Nick Clegg, Lib Dem - As usual a good performance from Mr Clegg although I doubt the media will say as much. In my opinion he has a natural way of presenting and he hasn't lost it despite the blows to his party of late. Whilst the Lib Dems will suffer greatly at this election, he is doing a good job of keeping the party credible. Perhaps one day people will realise that the tuition fee promise was not possible with a Conservative senior partner in the coalition!

Nigel Farage, UKIP - Farage has what feels to be an instant connection with his audience. Despite being at direct odds with him in my political beliefs, it must be said that he has turned his presenting skills into a form of art. He easily turns facts into rhetoric and his "common sense" policies seem to be quite popular, an unsurprising characteristic for a populist party. He did suffer a couple of losses for what I think is the first time I've seen him do so on a platform like this. Firstly I don't think the end to foreign aid proved very popular and secondly I and many others found his HIV treatment remark completely disgusting although I was glad to see Leanne Wood tackled him on the matter.

Ed Miliband, Labour - The man who has everything to gain from these public TV outings. For what should be a relatively easy win for Labour at this election, he is having to prove his mettle. I don't think he came across quite as well in this debate as he did in the Burley/Paxman show last week. He is certainly having a hard time in getting the public to trust the Labour party after only five years since the end of a thirteen year tenure which ended at a bad time for our economy (regardless of whether you blame them or not). I admit I still have my reservations as to whether Mr Miliband is Prime Minister material, certainly a PM over what will probably be a minority government.

Leanne Wood, Plaid Cymru - In my opinion the star of the debate. She seemed honest and wholeheartedly made clear that she wants a bright future for Wales whilst reminding us of the facts around how their devolution has not perhaps been of the "gold plated" variety afforded to Scotland. She certainly hit hard at Nigel Farage telling him he should be ashamed of himself over the HIV comment and highlighting his scaremongering and at Labour for reducing the health expenditure in Wales. I must confess that if I was a Welsh resident I would find it hard not to vote Plaid after her performance.

Nicola Sturgeon, SNP - Despite being in favour of the union, I find her rather compelling. I am well aware that the SNP has caused quite an outcry in England for threatening to assert its rights in Westminster but I see it that the SNP is doing exactly what it was elected to do which is to defend Scottish rights. Remarkable too is that the SNP is already a party of government in Holyrood and yet is looking to perform better still in May. It's looking to be that the SNP will hold the balance of power in the next Parliament and despite the perhaps seemingly undemocratic nature of this for those of us in the three other countries of the union, it is something I'm quite curious to see play out in a way.

David Cameron, Conservative - As has been mentioned, the Prime Minster seemed quite quiet. His seems to be the only party looking to reduce the deficit almost wholly through spending cuts (the much repeated £1 in every £100). Whilst the Lib Dems (and I believe UKIP) also agree the deficit needs to be reduced, the other parties seem to see it as a much lower priority and would instead favour spending. Mr Cameron seems to eagerly remind us of his "Long Term Economic Plan" and how it can only work with another Conservative (led) government. Whilst the figures are there, I do wonder how many people actually are feeling the benefit of the recovery yet. This in turn perhaps gives the Conservatives the look of being a little overly confident and a bit out of touch, characteristics they've been keen to ditch.


I know everybody will get something different out of the debates and I sometimes feel like I'm in the minority in my views despite being very moderate and centrist but I thought I'd put my two pennies worth on here!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I am sure that there would have been countless viewers who would have decided NOT to watch that particular television programme having had the pre-programme publicity "rammed down their throats" in the countless trails for it that were broadcast as a mark for their utter contempt for the broadcasters.

 

[Butts]

People of a "metropolitan outlook" please look away.....

That Plaid Cymru "siren" Leanne Wood has a dead sexy voice, I could listen to her all day. She easily outdid Sturgeon and Bennett (hardly difficult) in the looks and dress department as well.

With regard to the more serious subject of The Debate it worked rather better than I anticipated. The format was quite effective in my view, and Etchingham did quite a good job of compering.

 

[richw]

That Plaid Cymru "siren" Leanne Wood has a dead sexy voice, I could listen to her all day

I do like the Welsh female accent in general,so have to agree with this.

I'm in a bit of catch 22, labours policies are sounding most appealing and would appear to have the most positive impact on my family, but I can not stand ed milliband.

 

[me123]

People of a "metropolitan outlook" please look away.....

That Plaid Cymru "siren" Leanne Wood has a dead sexy voice, I could listen to her all day. She easily outdid Sturgeon and Bennett (hardly difficult) in the looks and dress department as well.

Do you think it appropriate to objectify some of the top female politicians in the UK? I can't speak much for Ms Bennett, but Ms Wood and, in particular, Ms Sturgeon have worked very hard to get to where they want to be in what is still a very male dominated world, and I think they should be applauded for it regardless of your political affiliation.

I'd disagree with you that the format worked. I found it to be more difficult to follow than last year's three-party debates. With seven voices, it felt just a bit too piecemeal for my liking. But then again, I'd have complained if it was any smaller. Perhaps multiple seven-person debates would have been more helpful, so that they weren't doing bit of a whistle-stop tour, and could spend more time getting around the panel. I'll do what TheJRB has done, and give a brief overview of my impressions:

Ms Bennett, Green: Disappointed. Few if any memorable moments from her. Her message was lost, and I don't think the Greens will have gained much from the debate.

Mr Clegg, Lib Dem: As ever, performs well in the debate setting. Did a good job of defending his record as a part of the coalition. I doubt, however, that it will be enough to win voters back and I suspect the result will be disastrous for them either way, but I'll give them credit for not going down without a fight.

Mr Farage, UKIP: Did you know that we need to build a house every seven seconds? The man was like a broken record. There really is nothing that he won't blame on immigration. And the HIV comment was, frankly, abhorrent. Sadly, his "man you'd have a few pints with down the pub" approach will probably continue to woo voters, I just hope they actually listened to him. What he said was pretty poor, although how he said will probably win people over. Most of his comments were thankfully discredited by swift responses from the other politicians from across the spectrum.

Mr Miliband, Labour: A performance that I suspect has been polished to make him look more personable. I think he's coming across a lot better than I'd have anticipated all in all.

Ms Wood, Plaid Cymru: Did a good job representing the people of Wales, and could have pulled a lot of people onside from Labour with her comments about the deprivation that still exists in Wales despite Labour's dominance could have hit a few blows (comments that I can sympathise with, knowing the deprivation in many labour-voting areas of Glasgow). I'd be interested to see how the Welsh vote after this - with the likelihood of a strong SNP presence, perhaps Welsh voters may be more inclined to vote PC to get their voice on the table as well. SNP and PC have long worked together (informally) in Westminster, and the arrangement could well continue going forward.

Ms Sturgeon, SNP: I intended to vote for the SNP before the election, and Ms Sturgeon reinforced my view tonight. I find her a compelling politician, and I have confidence that an SNP presence in Westminster will be the best people to represent the people of Scotland. I think she was the winner, although my bias may be coming into play here.

Mr Cameron, Conservative: A bit lacklustre. He needed to speak up more to defend his record in parliament, and I think he was off on the sidelines for most of it. I'm not entirely convinced that it was the best performance for him. Perhaps it was a deliberate decision, but I don't think the performance leaves me with confidence for DC as PM.

Overall: I think Ms Sturgeon won, it was a night for Scotland and Wales, by far the two most likely candidates for PM disappointed me.

 

[deltic]

I broadly agree with me123 and TheJRB excellent summaries of last night.

Nicola Sturgeon was the most impressive overall and if SNP does support Labour after the election should be Deputy PM, thought Ed Milliband was better than he has been in the past, Nick Clegg did a surprisingly good job, David Cameron was disappointing, Nigel Farage played to his supporters rather than trying to expand his reach to anyone else - has UKIP got any policies except on immigration, Leanne Wood was fairly poor but then she was only trying to reach people in Wales, Natalie Bennett was perhaps the most improved on previous car crashes and not afraid to put out unpopular views.

 

[warriorofrovac]

A vote for UKIP is a vote for the NSDAP.