Will Virgin bid on the west coast?

[Joshrowlands]

After what happened in 2012 when the franchise is up for grabs in 2017 do you think Virgin will bid again?

Now Virgin partly own the east coast main line as well so they will be making a profit there?

I personally think Virgin are a great TOC and have transformed the wcml, I can't imagine the wcml without Virgin trains. But do you think they will bid again? If so why and if not why?

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

Yes they will certainly bid again. If they didn't care for the operation they wouldn't of rubbished First.

 

[Murph]

Short answer: Yes, I'd be quite surprised if they don't bid for WCML IC services next time around. They did, after all, kick up the fuss to highlight DfT's major SNAFU.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Yes they will certainly bid again. If they didn't care for the operation they wouldn't of rubbished First.

Question is will they bid as the current 51% Virgin 49% Stagecoach or use the East Coast arrangement of 90% Stagecoach 10% Virgin.

 

[Murph]

Question is will they bid as the current 51% Virgin 49% Stagecoach or use the East Coast arrangement of 90% Stagecoach 10% Virgin.

That's anyone's guess. Mine is that it will be decided over a bottle of something extremely expensive shared between Sir Brian and Sir Richard.

 

[221129]

After what happened in 2012 when the franchise is up for grabs in 2017 do you think Virgin will bid again?

Now Virgin partly own the east coast main line as well so they will be making a profit there?

I personally think Virgin are a great TOC and have transformed the wcml, I can't imagine the wcml without Virgin trains. But do you think they will bid again? If so why and if not why?

A couple of points, Virgin don't own any of the ECML Network Rail do.

And Virgin didn't do as much to the WCML as they would lead you to believe..

 

[LLivery]

Of course they will bid, it is their wonderful Pendolino line that every operator tries to copy, obviously.

I'm sure all future bidders will be ready to counter a tantrum from Branson if Virgin loose again.

 

[The Planner]

They'll bid, the WCML is an utter cash cow.

 

[SPADTrap]

They'll bid, the WCML is an utter cash cow.

an udder cash cow?

I'm going, I'm going.

 

[8H]

The chance to be having a big giggle with public money and making an easy profit in the process, mmmmmm, let's think what someone like Branson would do? Answers on a postcard please!

 

[3141]

I'm sure all future bidders will be ready to counter a tantrum from Branson if Virgin loose again.

You may call it a tantrum, but if you think back you may recall that the DfT turned out to have messed things up in a big way and couldn't explain how they had reached certain important decisions. Branson knew enough about the economics of making a WCML bid to realise that a much higher bid than the one he'd made was highly risky.

You can bet the next time round the DfT will be making absolutely sure it's got everything right. If someone else bids more than Virgin, but not much more, Branson will have to think very carefully before he challenges it, because this time the DfT is likely to know what it's been doing. The really interesting scenario would be if someone else bids considerably more. The DfT will probably quadruple check before it makes the decision.

 

[jon0844]

Virgin has to win, or else if Abellio got it they'd take the 317s over, Govia would use the outgoing 313s and NatEx would replace all trains with coaches....

 

[LLivery]

You may call it a tantrum, but if you think back you may recall that the DfT turned out to have messed things up in a big way and couldn't explain how they had reached certain important decisions. Branson knew enough about the economics of making a WCML bid to realise that a much higher bid than the one he'd made was highly risky.

You can bet the next time round the DfT will be making absolutely sure it's got everything right. If someone else bids more than Virgin, but not much more, Branson will have to think very carefully before he challenges it, because this time the DfT is likely to know what it's been doing. The really interesting scenario would be if someone else bids considerably more. The DfT will probably quadruple check before it makes the decision.

Oh of course the DfT screwed it up, I'd rather scrap it all. Branson was right to question it, however the way Virgin went about it was misleading and never corrected all the misconceptions. If he went about it correctly then I wouldn't have a problem.

 

[tjlrailblue]

would the competition commission or whoever rules over these matters allow the same company to run both main lines from London to Scotland?

 

[221129]

Yes...

 

[route:oxford]

would the competition commission or whoever rules over these matters allow the same company to run both main lines from London to Scotland?

No...

But unlike many rail commentators, the CC is unlikely to be confused by white-label.

 

[Joshrowlands]

So most people think they will? I once had someone on here saying they probably won't bid again I can't remember the reason why they thought that.

I thought with them having a bit of the ecml they wouldn't bother with the wcml anymore?

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

So most people think they will? I once had someone on here saying they probably won't bid again I can't remember the reason why they thought that.

I thought with them having a bit of the ecml they wouldn't bother with the wcml anymore?

Having the ECML is a reason not to lose the WCML.
If another company runs a better service to Scotland they'll lose passengers. Now they could run trains at 50mph and increase fares and people are forced to use them to get to the North and Scotland ftom London.

 

[WatcherZero]

I think they will bid again for West Coast but they wont be too unhappy if they dont win it. They bid for East Coast in the first place hedging the risk that they might have lost West Coast. However they have only shown an interest in Intercity franchises to which they can apply their airline experience in customer servive and marketing, you wont see them bid for a commuter franchise.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think they will bid again for West Coast but they wont be too unhappy if they dont win it. They bid for East Coast in the first place hedging the risk that they might have lost West Coast. However they have only shown an interest in Intercity franchises to which they can apply their airline experience in customer servive and marketing, you wont see them bid for a commuter franchise.

With the plan to split LM in two, making "West Coast Connect" and a Brum commuter franchise, it would be interesting to see if they would bid if "West Coast Connect" was merged into the main West Coast franchise, fGW style. (For all I dislike fGW, largely for reasons that aren't their fault, e.g. insufficient rolling stock) this is quite a practical arrangement - one operator per London terminus does work quite well)

Neil
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

No...

I'd go "maybe". To allow Branson both would recognise that the real competitor is the car and air, not a petty spat with another train operator over a tiny minority of journeys. (ECML is irrelevant to London-Manchester, WCML is irrelevant to London-Newcastle - it's only when you get to Scotland that the competition is of any relevance).

Neil

 

[Clip]

So most people think they will? I once had someone on here saying they probably won't bid again I can't remember the reason why they thought that.

I thought with them having a bit of the ecml they wouldn't bother with the wcml anymore?

I think they will but it will be interesting to see what happens to the fares on the ECML if they don't win it.

Whilst they really are 2 separate railways with only 1(iirc) service to Glasgow on the ECML I can see a fares war with just getting people to Scotland and then letting them make their own choice for onward destinations..

Still theres a few years left before it happens.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think they will but it will be interesting to see what happens to the fares on the ECML if they don't win it.

Very little, I'd imagine, as there are a tiny minority of journeys where the two actually compete, while coach, air and car compete heavily with the routes throughout.

Neil

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If Virgin can see this being a profitable enterprise, commercial thoughts will decide upon them bidding as long as they wish to stay in the railway sector.

 

[Clip]

Very little, I'd imagine, as there are a tiny minority of journeys where the two actually compete, while coach, air and car compete heavily with the routes throughout.

Neil

Well it was good of you to selectively quote me and miss out the part where I mentioned the onward destinations in Scotland.

Yes we all know both flights and the car and coach will compete throughout however, the journey times by car are stupid from London and most people don't live near an airport either which adds on an hour plus for most people within London and coach travel whilst cheap is uncomfortable and is also a long and arduous journey.

And that's why my view is that if they don't win the WCML then they will want as many full trains as possible and will do so by being ruthless with a lot of fares to win the patronage and do a little spin on it to show why they should've kept the WCML as they have more trains that are full and better prices.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well it was good of you to selectively quote me and miss out the part where I mentioned the onward destinations in Scotland.

Those are the "tiny minority of journeys" to which I refer. Most WCML journeys, say, are Euston to Brum/Manc - that's why that has 3tph on both of those. Most EC journeys will similarly not involve Edinburgh or indeed elsewhere in Scotland.

Yes we all know both flights and the car and coach will compete throughout however, the journey times by car are stupid from London and most people don't live near an airport either which adds on an hour plus for most people within London and coach travel whilst cheap is uncomfortable and is also a long and arduous journey.

Many people still use those modes, though. And as many people live near airports such that journey time will be reduced overall[1] as live near Kings Cross, Peterborough or Stevenage. (Connections bump the journey time up a bit)

[1] I've done a weekly commute MK<->Edinburgh, air via Luton is, or was, about an hour faster each way than rail, home to city centre.

And that's why my view is that if they don't win the WCML then they will want as many full trains as possible and will do so by being ruthless with a lot of fares to win the patronage and do a little spin on it to show why they should've kept the WCML as they have more trains that are full and better prices.

It will be interesting to see.

Neil

 

[jon0844]

With the plan to split LM in two, making "West Coast Connect" and a Brum commuter franchise, it would be interesting to see if they would bid if "West Coast Connect" was merged into the main West Coast franchise, fGW style. (For all I dislike fGW, largely for reasons that aren't their fault, e.g. insufficient rolling stock) this is quite a practical arrangement - one operator per London terminus does work quite well)Neil

If the intercity service was ever merged with the types of service Virgin would not want to have anything to do with, could Stagecoach bid (as per the ECML) and then use Virgin to brand only the Intercity trains, and its own (or another) brand for the rest?

Would a franchise allow such a thing? It would still be one operator, but the masses would still think Virgin was running only one service.

What's more, who says that another bidder couldn't seek to tie up with Virgin? Or even for, say, First to win and then go to Virgin to licence the name for a fixed fee, or some sort of revenue share. Virgin wouldn't even need to have any stake in the business, but could still plaster the trains with Virgin Trains and have SRB turn up for marketing opportunities.

 

[work-traveller]

That's anyone's guess. Mine is that it will be decided over a bottle of something extremely expensive shared between Sir Brian and Sir Richard.

Presumably Sir Brian will have that drink with Sri Richard on Necker - being as Sir R doesn't like being drawn away from his island lair any more than need be.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If the intercity service was ever merged with the types of service Virgin would not want to have anything to do with, could Stagecoach bid (as per the ECML) and then use Virgin to brand only the Intercity trains, and its own (or another) brand for the rest?

I doubt it if it is decided to merge the franchises.

What's more, who says that another bidder couldn't seek to tie up with Virgin? Or even for, say, First to win and then go to Virgin to licence the name for a fixed fee, or some sort of revenue share. Virgin wouldn't even need to have any stake in the business, but could still plaster the trains with Virgin Trains and have SRB turn up for marketing opportunities.

Can't see why not, but then Virgin is a privately held company so it's whatever Branson feels like that goes...

Neil

 

[jon0844]

I am not suggesting (or wishing to start rumours) of anything like this happening, but it was a genuine question should it ever happen, or happen to any other franchise.

If Virgin did consider such an idea, it could then possibly make a bid for the GWML franchise one day, and do just that. The nice new IEPs out of Paddington would be Virgin branded, but all other lines would have nothing to link them at all.

In the case of the ECML, Virgin has got a 10% stake, but there's no need for Virgin to have any stake. It's all a matter of whether Virgin would like to be associated with another train service it considers safe and good for the brand (and obviously a generous licensing fee!).

 

[CC 72100]

In the case of the ECML, Virgin has got a 10% stake, but there's no need for Virgin to have any stake. It's all a matter of whether Virgin would like to be associated with another train service it considers safe and good for the brand (and obviously a generous licensing fee!).

Well of course it does - it can be associated with new shiny trains again and make a song and dance about how it was the 'driving force' about its 'transformation' of the ECML.

I'm sure they'll be as keen to retain the WCML as ever; ok so they won't be able to 'transform' it under the new franchise (the pendolinos won't be brand new at all by then) but they will be perceived as being able to continue their 'good work' and use marketing to convince passengers that their WCML would be under threat should another operator take over.