Northern and TPE Consultation Document

[Bevan Price]

Chiltern are still supposed to be starting services to Oxford Parkway in the summer, so they might not need all the units but they will need some. Scotrail was rumoured for replacements but any spare units they have now appear to be going to Southern. However it appears Northern will have spare units as 12-14 are freed up by electrification but they only have uses for 2 of them.

The displaced Northern units will be a mixture of 142, 150 & 156. Can we expect these to take over Northern 158 diagrams, so that TPE can have some Northern 158s ?

 

[thealexweb]

The displaced Northern units will be a mixture of 142, 150 & 156. Can we expect these to take over Northern 158 diagrams, so that TPE can have some Northern 158s ?

God help Northern if this happens. Blackpool North to York on a 142

 

[Chris125]

I think it unlikely Bi-mode stock specifically for Scotland would be procured now as HS2 would result in a large amount of surplus classic compatibles that needed a home at the end of the next decade once phase 2 was ready and some redeployed Pendolinos at the start of phase 1 (Of course HS2 could end up being delayed as well creating a whole new set of problems).

Why would phase 2 would result in a surplus of classic compatibles? They'll be used on the extra services that come with the second phase. I think it's safe to say that buying 225mph trainsets for just a few years use would be a complete non-starter.

Chris

 

[WatcherZero]

More classic compatibles are needed in phase 1 than 2. Phase 1 calls for 60 trains of which 45 would be classic compatibles making up a combined total of around 500 carriages. Phase 2 requires around another 600-700 captive to be built. There wouldn't be a requirement for 45 classic compatible trains on the HS2 network in phase 2, Scottish services would be the main remaining requirement then only a couple would be needed for other destinations.

 

[158756]

More classic compatibles are needed in phase 1 than 2. Phase 1 calls for 60 trains of which 45 would be classic compatibles making up a combined total of around 500 carriages. Phase 2 requires around another 600-700 captive to be built. There wouldn't be a requirement for 45 classic compatible trains on the HS2 network in phase 2, Scottish services would be the main remaining requirement then only a couple would be needed for other destinations.

In phase 2 the modelled service pattern includes classic compatible services from London to Preston, Liverpool, Newcastle and Scotland, plus Birmingham to Newcastle and Scotland. Could these not use all of the phase 1 trains?

Talking of which hs2.org.uk appears to have vanished.

 

[Elecman]

The so-called "plan" appears to be as valid as any "cunning plan" of Baldrick that ever saw the light of day in the "Blackadder" TV series...

ROFL.

Turnips

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Talking of which hs2.org.uk appears to have vanished.

Website was still there when I checked this morning.

 

[edwin_m]

More classic compatibles are needed in phase 1 than 2. Phase 1 calls for 60 trains of which 45 would be classic compatibles making up a combined total of around 500 carriages. Phase 2 requires around another 600-700 captive to be built. There wouldn't be a requirement for 45 classic compatible trains on the HS2 network in phase 2, Scottish services would be the main remaining requirement then only a couple would be needed for other destinations.

By my reckoning there would be 32 diagrams to provide a half-hourly service from London to Edinburgh and Glasgow (8 hour cycle time for each). On top of that is Birmingham-Scotland and services to Liverpool and Newcastle plus short workings to Preston and Carlisle, and an allowance for spare units. I can't see this leaving any spares from 45, and if there were they could substitute for captive sets. There is also the suggestion of having CC services to places like Stoke and Chester, so if anything I think we'll see more than 45 CC units.
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Talking of which hs2.org.uk appears to have vanished.

It's been swallowed up by the gov.uk website.

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/high-speed-two-limited

 

[northwichcat]

Chiltern are still supposed to be starting services to Oxford Parkway in the summer, so they might not need all the units but they will need some. Scotrail was rumoured for replacements but any spare units they have now appear to be going to Southern. However it appears Northern will have spare units as 12-14 are freed up by electrification but they only have uses for 2 of them.

Northern signed the Direct Award on the basis that the 14 x 319s will be extra capacity and no other units will leave the franchise unless replacements are provided.

The reason only 2 x released Sprinters have been officially allocated is because 2 x 319s were due in service as of the latest timetable change, so only 2 x Sprinters would be freed up. (Obviously that didn't happen with Network Rail infrastructure delays.) More Northern services are due to get extra capacity - Northern are currently weighing up whether from December 2015 they'll be extra services on some lines or just extra capacity - hence why no official announcement has been made yet but we should know in the next few months.

As I've pointed out before the CP4 HLOS identified a need for 202 additional carriages in the form of a new DMU order, which was later changed to new & cascaded EMUs. Of those 202 carriages 40 were for TPE, 32 for FGW and 130 for Northern. This was in addition to the cascades as a result of the class 172 delivery. TPE obviously got 10 x 350s (40 carriages) but as the Scottish services were re-routed via Wigan and passenger numbers have grown since the HLOS was published that wasn't really enough. Northern will only get 56 extra carriages before the end of the current franchise, while to date FGW have had nothing.

Government said 9 months ago there was a plan, they've failed to produce evidence of it since.

TPE claim there is a solution in place but they aren't allowed to reveal it until the Direct Award is signed.

 

[Starmill]

TPE claim there is a solution in place but they aren't allowed to reveal it until the Direct Award is signed.

What could possibly be so sensitive about this that it cannot be revealed until such time as a Direct Award has been signed? The DfT should be ashamed of this playing with the economy like they have puppet strings. An immense number of entities depend on these services operating in an efficient, quick and timely fashion - this is no branch line and with dirt cheap fares. It's current performance and reputation is taking a significant hit and apparently everyone is happy for this to simply continue to get worse.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

What could possibly be so sensitive about this that it cannot be revealed until such time as a Direct Award has been signed? The DfT should be ashamed of this playing with the economy like they have puppet strings. An immense number of entities depend on these services operating in an efficient, quick and timely fashion - this is no branch line and with dirt cheap fares. It's current performance and reputation is taking a significant hit and apparently everyone is happy for this to simply continue to get worse.

At a guess, there may be aspects of the Direct Award that are commercially "difficult" for TPE/First (like lower subsidy).
DfT has to sign off the overall agreement and maybe it's not just a cave-in to the price the TOC/Roscos want.
With so much up in the air on both TPE and Northern I'm not surprised it is taking a long time to resolve.

 

[Class 170101]

Maybe it's because units are being pinched from another franchise

 

[Class377/5]

God help Northern if this happens. Blackpool North to York on a 142

I've done Liverpool Lime Street to Blackpool North on a pacer more than once. Not fun.

As for the TPE 170 'solution', don't expect too much folks from the rumours going around.

 

[Starmill]

As for the TPE 170 'solution', don't expect too much folks from the rumours going around.

Oh dear. :cry:

 

[Class377/5]

Oh dear. :cry:

Pretty much. While carriage numbers are equal, the quality isn't. But its rumour for now but worrying if true.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

At a guess, there may be aspects of the Direct Award that are commercially "difficult" for TPE/First (like lower subsidy).

DfT has to sign off the overall agreement and maybe it's not just a cave-in to the price the TOC/Roscos want. With so much up in the air on both TPE and Northern I'm not surprised it is taking a long time to resolve.

What is the last officially accepted date for the decision to be made without any time-extension being added?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

What is the last officially accepted date for the decision to be made without any time-extension being added?

The formal position is that the current franchise ends in March 2015.
The direct award is supposed to extend that (on new terms) to March 2016, like Northern.
With some of these they have gone close to the wire (a couple of weeks), so it's not critical yet.
The FGW 5-year direct award, even though agreed in principle, is still very vague and they are still negotiating the details (where their EMUs are coming from, for instance).
Looks like FTPE is going the same way.
The real trouble will be if they delay the long franchise ITT beyond the election.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

There are all sorts of rumours going round at work. There is only 1 which is relatively easy to implement, and that is the rumour that in the short term some 170s will be staying with TPE and 2 x 3 car 170s will be coming from Scotrail and having their own dedicated Monday to Friday diagram to generally try and maintain capacity as is. This is easy as no crew training is required. Any other rumoured option involving any other rolling stock will pose problems in terms of crew training, diagramming, and which maintenance facilities to use.

 

[northwichcat]

What could possibly be so sensitive about this that it cannot be revealed until such time as a Direct Award has been signed?

Remember when DfT announced that Northern would give up 4 x 156s and 3 x 180s (to be replaced by 150s) it was part of a 'good news' announcement with it focusing on Northern getting capacity increase because they would be getting additional 150s not just replacement 150s.

Maybe DfT are trying to do something similar this time?

Pretty much. While carriage numbers are equal, the quality isn't. But its rumour for now but worrying if true.

Seated capacity is more important than carriage numbers. A reduction of just 6 seats per carriage for TPE would be bad news as well as a downgrade in quality as you mention.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

There are all sorts of rumours going round at work. There is only 1 which is relatively easy to implement, and that is the rumour that in the short term some 170s will be staying with TPE and 2 x 3 car 170s will be coming from Scotrail and having their own dedicated Monday to Friday diagram to generally try and maintain capacity as is. This is easy as no crew training is required. Any other rumoured option involving any other rolling stock will pose problems in terms of crew training, diagramming, and which maintenance facilities to use.

I think the 170 rumour you've heard has logic to it though. Southern have recently signed a lease for 9 x 170s but only need 4 x 170s initially while Kelios are involved in both a franchise which will have more 170s than required and one which will have less than required from next Spring. While previously DfT said they would ask Chiltern if they could only take some of the 170s from next Spring and sublease the rest back for the interim. However, with the mooted replacements for the 170s being Sprinters that didn't look like a workable option at the time.

Personally I'd be surprised if a sublease of 2-3 350/1s or 350/3s to TPE hasn't been looked at. Two would eliminate the 6 car 185 working on Scottish services on Friday/Saturday and a third would reduce the chance of 185s being nabbed off North TPE to cover for a failed 350.

Cascaded 319s could release some 321s to LM as cover and with the current rolling stock situation it's much easier to eliminate DMUs 100% under the wires than to free up DMUs by other means. Again DfT have said about using cascaded 319s to free up DMUs for TPE but didn't expand on that, which has led to all sorts of suggestions even using 1 x 319 for a Hazel Grove-Manchester shuttle to hopefully free up a Sprinter, which may even need to be used to cover the diagramming changes involved in splitting up a service.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Discussions continue about setting up this organisation, which is I presume what we have been calling Rail North: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ses-ahead-with-rail-improvements-in-the-north

The Department for Transport is working with Transport for the North partners to develop a transport strategy for the north, with an interim report expected later this year.

All very laudable, but nothing you can hang your hat on yet.
It does now seem to link into the HS3 proposals as well as the upcoming franchises.
I also read into the announcement that they are not rushing to issue the ITTs for Northern/TPE.
Maybe we will get a couple of interim management contracts instead.

 

[northwichcat]

Conservatives are claiming if Labour win the next election they'll restart the Northern/TPE franchise process allowing DOR to bid costing over £20m. Labour deny that claim - I don't know which bit they are denying though the claim the bidding process will be restarted or the cost claim.

 

[WatcherZero]

Discussions continue about setting up this organisation, which is I presume what we have been calling Rail North: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ses-ahead-with-rail-improvements-in-the-north

Depends, could end up being the same organisation but at the moment different work streams.

You have Rail North which is what the northern transport bodies banded together to form to specify and take over the management of Northern/TPE franchise and control rail spending/service decisions. Its formed from all the transport authorities though voting rights are proportional to investment the transport authority is willing to put in. its now become a legal entity.

You then have One North which is the PTEs initially minus Hull but now Hull is included too putting forward a jointly agreed infrastructure plan costing £15bn for road and rail improvements across the region and to create a new rail line across the Pennines.

Then Higgins came along with his HS3 report and said there should be a Transport for The North made up of the Combined Authorities that controls the management and spending of all transport funds across all transport modes (Rail, roads, light rail, buses) in the North and Osborne jumped on the idea. Essentially proposing DfT responsibilities in the North is fully devolved from Whitehall like Transport Scotland, this plan seems to unlike Rail North give all the power to the CA's and no say to the non-metropolitan areas.

Arguably the TftN idea supercedes Rail North though may end up with Rail North being the executive agency of TftN on rail matters due to greater inclusion and financial/legal mechanism to allow local authorities to fund infrastructure projects and service enhancements.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Conservatives are claiming if Labour win the next election they'll restart the Northern/TPE franchise process allowing DOR to bid costing over £20m. Labour deny that claim - I don't know which bit they are denying though the claim the bidding process will be restarted or the cost claim.

Upon what evidence from comments made by senior Labour Party politicans or officials is this claim made?

Is it from one of the now-infamous Maria Eagle transport comments made when the mouth and brain were not fully synchronised?

 

[northwichcat]

Upon what evidence from comments made by senior Labour Party politicans or officials is this claim made? Is it from one of the now-infamous Angela Eagle transport comments made when the mouth and brain were not fully synchronised?

I think it's based solely on this claim

Shadow transport secretary Mary Creagh has indicated that the Labour Party would change the law to enable Directly Operated Railways to bid for rail franchises should it win the next general election. However, she ruled out “fantasy” renationalisation of train operations as a matter of policy when current franchises expire, as demanded by a group of prospective Labour candidates earlier this month.

http://www.passengertransport.co.uk/2014/05/labour-would-let-dor-bid-for-franchises/

The Conservative figures presented on Monday were dismissed by both Nick Robinson and Robert Peston on the BBC News on Monday as fiction and unverified.

 

[WatcherZero]

Conservatives are claiming if Labour win the next election they'll restart the Northern/TPE franchise process allowing DOR to bid costing over £20m. Labour deny that claim - I don't know which bit they are denying though the claim the bidding process will be restarted or the cost claim.

According to the Treasury estimates the Conservative Party asked for as part of their election campaign rerunning the Northern and TPE franchise process would cost £8m and allowing a public sector champion to bid on all rail franchises would cost £22m a year.

 

[northwichcat]

The ITT is to be issued in 'the next few weeks.' It's rumoured the ITT for Northern isn't going to say bidders must replace Pacers or anything about new and modern stock but that the bidder must specify how they are going to move towards having a fleet of properly bogied trains.

If that's true the option of taking on Porterbrook's refitted 144s or 143s for the duration of the next franchise will be possible.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The ITT is to be issued in 'the next few weeks.' It's rumoured the ITT for Northern isn't going to say bidders must replace Pacers or anything about new and modern stock but that the bidder must specify how they are going to move towards having a fleet of properly bogied trains.

If that's true the option of taking on Porterbrook's refitted 144s or 143s for the duration of the next franchise will be possible.

It's more important to specify the services DfT and RN are prepared to pay for (routes and frequencies, particularly after electrification and Northen Hub).
What trains are used on NT and TP is secondary, and indeed should be down to the bidders and not specified in the ITT.

 

[thealexweb]

Just how bad will the ITTs be? After reading the details of the new Scotrail franchise I am braced for massive disappointment by comparison.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The ITT is to be issued in 'the next few weeks.' It's rumoured the ITT for Northern isn't going to say bidders must replace Pacers or anything about new and modern stock but that the bidder must specify how they are going to move towards having a fleet of properly bogied trains.

If that's true the option of taking on Porterbrook's refitted 144s or 143s for the duration of the next franchise will be possible.

I think that you have to consider the following:-
1)...The number of Angel Trains Class 142 units currently running in the Northern Rail franchise area.
2)...The time period that Porterbrook will need to refit all the Class 143 and 144 units and the numerical difference between that joint unit figure and that of the numerical figure of the Class 142 units.
3)...What will be the replacement stock in the areas currently served by all the Class 143 and 144 units.

 

[Wolfie]

I think that you have to consider the following:-
1)...The number of Angel Trains Class 142 units currently running in the Northern Rail franchise area.
2)...The time period that Porterbrook will need to refit all the Class 143 and 144 units and the numerical difference between that joint unit figure and that of the numerical figure of the Class 142 units.
3)...What will be the replacement stock in the areas currently served by all the Class 143 and 144 units.

Very sensible questions.

I am not, before some ask, trolling when I say that, if I were a betting man, I would bet that Northern will be the last outpost of the Pacer. Indeed it seems probable that the Northern will end up operating the 143/144s in refurbished form until their final withdrawal (probably around 2030). I would also bet, given the economics, that the proposed Viva Rail D-Train conversions will figure in plans for Northern (they have bogies and they will be relatively cheap!) at least in the short-medium term (until about 2035).

My longer-term view (20 years+) is that Northern will end up operating mainly EMUs with more modern DMUs (168s, 170s) for remaining branches. Sadly the DMUs will themselves have been cascaded from other areas. Indeed, it's not impossible, if gauging issues can be overcome, that 165/166s may pitch up with Northern at some point (particularly if the Marylebone route is electrified, although cynically I wouldn't bet against the Chiltern air-conditioned versions being retained "dahn sarf" and the GW non-air-conditioned versions heading north)...