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Your rail predictions for 2015

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Kite159

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Clapham Junction to fall into chaos when a train breaks down in the Staines area on a weekend of diversions.

The South West to be ignored again and still runs around in pacers.
 

Senex

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If post-May, Deputy P.M. Alex Salmond will be helicoptered in to say that if only the voters in Cornwall had voted for a nationalist candidate, then they could have a high-speed line, with tunnel under Dartmoor, to whisk them through to Exeter, but, as it was, all spare money was going to go to Scotland as per the post-referendum concord.

Only too plausible, I fear. Salmond will very properly do everything he can to advance the interests of the Scots, and Miliband and company will continue the established Labour policy of selling the English down the river in order to look after the interests of the Scottish and Welsh supporters. (Why else did they give decent devolution to both Scotland and Wales whilst offering only a miserable extra tier of local government with very limited powers to the North-East?)

Two possible scenarios for HS2. There could be an immediate decision to extend the western arm to Scotland, abandoning both the Manchester branch and the eastern arm. Or, preferably, the whole thing could be called in for a review as to whether what is planned really is the best use of so much money for the English railway system.
 

racyrich

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Network Rail is the new government's first privatisation - a Qatari consortium buys all the shares. Deal is hailed as the best possible deal for the taxpayer.
Qataris announce that all previously announced upgrades will go ahead.

Six months later the TOCs are told their access charges will now be at the full market rate necessary to cover the debt and new investment.

31 Dec 2015. Rail fares triple.
 

DimTim

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HS2 Birmingham to Leeds cancelled
HS3 Manchester to Leeds to replace it

Gets an East West high speed line in the north

MML electrification will upgrade East Midlands/Sheffield
 

dcsprior

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Only too plausible, I fear. Salmond will very properly do everything he can to advance the interests of the Scots

Nicola Sturgeon has not only ruled out any coalition with the Tories, but also promised that there will be no coalition with the Labour party unless they commit to scrapping trident. My reading of this is that its a way to effectively rule out any formal coalition with either party, whilst still being able to say that Labour were the ones who chose to say no.

It should also be remembered that Salmond isn't the SNP's leader at Westminister, Angus Robertson is.

Miliband and company will continue the established Labour policy of selling the English down the river in order to look after the interests of the Scottish and Welsh supporters. (Why else did they give decent devolution to both Scotland and Wales whilst offering only a miserable extra tier of local government with very limited powers to the North-East?)

Its probably because a parliament for the entirety of England (which I think would be a good thing, including for Scotland) would almost always have a Tory majority, and turkeys don't vote for Christmas
 

matacaster

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HS2 north of Birmingham abandoned. Redesignated commuter route.
Redundant Northern 142's sent to increase capacity in South East after
complaint to equalities commission.
HS3 gets buried in a proposed tunnel under the pennines when they find
out how much it will cost ... and worse it doesn't start or end in London. NR
directors discover pennines largely granite and its harder than stuff in
London, revelation due to having never previously been north of Watford
Junction.
WCML between Preston and Carlisle is closed repeatedly. Problems with
flooding, severe wind affecting knitting, buckled rails with heat,
possession overruns. NR and TOC's address this by adding more services
to aid congestion and ignoring S&C alternative. Shares in RR bus
company soars.
Pendelino toilets found to breach EU air pollution guidelines.
NR directors bonuses increased by crafty Government who also say
bonuses not payable in the event of disruption at Christmas.
NE has rail funding reduced to ensure L&SE get free WIFI on all trains + a
free copy of Foxtons estate agent magazine so they can see increase in
house price from last week while commuting.
Northern Hub renamed Northern Stub and gets no further than Manchester
owing to increased costs and lack of electrification engineers.
 
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Senex

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Its probably because a parliament for the entirety of England (which I think would be a good thing, including for Scotland) would almost always have a Tory majority, and turkeys don't vote for Christmas

Sturgeon will negotiate, and we don't know who their Westminster leader after the election will be.

I'm not so pessimistic about an English parliament if it were set up like those in the other nations with a modern and fair electoral system that would properly represent the people in a set-up when we no longer have just a binary split. Surely we could not envisage a federation where one federal state only retained an out-moded and undemocratic electoral system. New set-up, new system -- and certainly no more appointed/hereditary House of Lords.

For the railways, I tend to think more routine negotiation for coalition might be no bad thing as it might just bring more continuity of policy and less fist-shaking yah-boo politics of the sort of hear every Wednesday lunch-time.
 

dcsprior

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Some guesses - all probably very unlikely:

The fact that even the right-wing press is grumbling about the current franchise model leads to local franchises more likely to be run on the Scotrail/Overground model, with no branding by the operator, and tighter specification of what is to be delivered. At the same time, a trial on one of the intercity franchises (is West Coast the next one up?) to have two winning bidders, with half of the slots given to one operator and half to another, so there's competition at the consumer level.

Operators who don't already have smartcards throughout their network abandon plans for them; instead they go straight to contactless payment - with some option to link tickets purchased in advance (incl seasons) to a registered card, and a walk-up fare charged otherwise.

Good ideas spreading as TOCs copy the best innovations of their competitors (ability to choose seat like EC, reservations on the day of travel like XC, etc) followed by a load of attempts to get vague patents on obvious ideas, so it never happens again.
 

tbtc

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The thing that worries me most about 2015 is the potential faultline between the DfT and Network Rail - with the former unhappy that the latter isn't delivering what they want it to.

The CP5 plans all sounded so good in 2013, but now that the reality of delivering them is becoming most costly and more time consuming*, there's a danger that the next Government will lose faith in NR's ability to deliver what they want (which could potentially be a justification to scale back further promises).

The next Government will have a lot of decisions to make re rail (e.g. the backlog of franchises to award), so I hope they are fairly rail friendly.

There'll be meltdown on the Forum if Stagecoach win the Transpennine franchise (since that'll give them a monopoly on even more flows, and monopolies are bad, unless they are like the 100% monopoly that British Rail had in the good old days which is apparently entirely different...).

We'll probably see D Stock announced for northern England on the basis that "they won't have the stigma of being Pacers, however unsuitable they are".

Hopefully we won't see any crashes/ passengers killed - I do worry that the modern railway doesn't have any spare capacity to allow for contingency plans - we managed to keep going after Hatfield with lower speeds/ reduced services etc because there was still some "slack", but now any minor disruption seems to take longer to get over because there's no spare resources for any kind of "Plan B".

The only post-election question (regarding parties) I have is what kind of price the SNP/UKIP would want for joining a coalition.

The SNP's base seems to be shifting from rural areas (the "Tartan Tory" tag no longer appropriate) - their former core bases of Angus and Aberdeenshire voted "NO" in the independence referendum - and into the Central Belt - but the SNP cancelled the GARL/EARL proposals - the one "biggie" would be HS2 to Scotland, or maybe getting Westminster to fund the Edinburgh - Glasgow High Speed line (on the basis that this is "UK" infrastructure like the rest of HS2). The question is then whether there'll be a high speed link between Crewe/"Lancashire" and the separate Scottish line.

UKIP and rail are a much harder one - they used to be in favour of High Speed lines, including to Exeter (!), but would they use cancelling HS2 as a bargaining chip in negotiations? Impossible to tell, as they chance their policies more often than most parties...

I think we can ignore the Greens from any coalition because I don't think that they'll win more than a couple of seats under First Past The Post even if they get 10-15% of the vote (and I say this as someone who's voted Green a few times, and supports electoral reform). I don't think that any party with just a couple of MPs would be in a position to make significant demands.

Oh, and some feigned surprise when it turns out that the stock used on the new link between Manchester/ Rochdale and Burnley/ Blackburn will be the same 75mph DMUs that Northern runs in the area...

* - the fact that rail projects generally go over budget and take longer than planned will be conveniently ignored every time an enthusiast wants to complain about "Misguided busways" or poorly managed light rail projects of course

One guaranteed prediction for 2015.

There will be at least 5 billion posts a day from northerners moaning and bitching about how people in the south east get the most investment and better stuff.

True.

We've had some amazing complaints about this in 2014 - my favourite two on this Forum being that the 350/4s weren't "new" (because they weren't as new as the 350/3s which hadn't entered service at that point) and that the 350/4s weren't "modern" (because they weren't as modern as the currently unbuilt 700s/800s).

I find that post offensive. You are attacking millions of people because of their location, it's malice discrimination. People in the North do moan about the service, so do South people

That honestly offends you?

I've lived in Yorkshire for the past twentysomething years and find it amusing and reflective of a (very) vocal minority of posters on the Forum, rather than an attack on millions of people.

Still, people get offended about anything these days.

Class 442s will be sent to the GEML and be top and tailed by class 43s

If they do find a use for 442s then that's going to scupper most of the fantasy suggestion threads (since 442s can't be used elsewhere too)!

More uproar in the north (outside Manchester) as Rail North turns out to be TfGM in disguise

That's believable.

They've already tried to turn the Manchester Hub ambitions into the Northern Hub (with a loop at Grindleford being about the only infrastructure in the Northern Hub outside Greater Manchester) - they'll have their sights on dominating "the north" too.

Devolution will be even more unpopular than centralisation (as local people will now make the hard decisions on services and fares)

There was a groundswell of opinion in favour of "devolution" during/after the Scottish referendum, but I think that 2015 will be the year when people realise that it comes with significant downsides unless there's a magic pot of free money attached.

We've seen local authorities being blamed for making cuts (which they've had to make due to significant cuts in the grants from central government), and I think that Westminster will see devolution as a handy way of passing the buck - giving power over a small/ dwindling budget to local representatives who'll not be able to spend it much more efficiently than it's already being spent.

As our friends in Cardiff Bay are learning, it's easy to demand more "local" powers, but a lot harder when you now become responsible for funding things yourselves (and find lots of competing voices for what you spend that budget on - and you can no longer blame Big Bad London).

Electric spine will be quietly forgotten

Likely.

I think that the passenger railway (and especially Pacer withdrawal) should be the priority of electrification - the idea of electrifying specifically to allow some freight to electric haulage will make for some environmentally friendly headlines, but I think it's of less practical benefit than carefully targeted short bits of electrification to tackle 75mph DMUs.

Passenger numbers will keep on rising

...at a time when people complain that more and more people are priced off the railways (I know, I know...)
 

Busaholic

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It should also be remembered that Salmond isn't the SNP's leader at Westminister, Angus Robertson is.

When Labour won the vote for control of the Greater London Council in 1981 Andrew Macintosh was leader of the Labour group. Within a day he had been replaced by Ken Livingstone by a majority vote of Labour councillors. The rest is history.
 

dcsprior

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Hopefully we won't see any crashes/ passengers killed

I'm sure we can all agree with that.

I think we can ignore the Greens from any coalition because I don't think that they'll win more than a couple of seats under First Past The Post even if they get 10-15% of the vote (and I say this as someone who's voted Green a few times, and supports electoral reform). I don't think that any party with just a couple of MPs would be in a position to make significant demands.

Unless they're negotiating as part of a block of parties with a significant number of seats overall.

This article discusses the an alliance between the SNP, Plaid and the English Greens - three parties on the left of the politcal spectrum who don't compete with each other in the same seats. I don't know much about politics in NI, would the SDLP and/or Alliance Party fit in with these three?
 

Bald Rick

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How about some Rail Forums predictions... (With apologies in advance to those that are mentioned, it is good natured I promise!)

Trip Planning and Reports: Techniquest gets his last Scotrail unit in February, and to celebrate eschews BK and goes to 'the Scottish Restaurant' (for a Big Mac)

International Transport: in March, someone asks about connection time from Eurostar to Thalys at Brussels Midi.

Disputes and Prosecutions: only 1,658 new posters claim to have forgotten to pay their fare, they've never done it before, honest guv, and it only happened because the machine wouldn't take Guernsey pound coins / refused 5 different credit cards / the dog ate my delay repay vouchers.

Railway Jobs and Careers: Someone gets a driver job on their first application.

Traction and Rolling Stock: The debate about seat comfort on class 387 and 700s continues throughout the year, with forum members taking rulers and pliance meters on board to measure padding depth and 'give'. A new correspondent from Paris, a Monsieur Ricard de N'avec-Cheveux-Pas, invites everyone over to sample the upholstery on RER line A, which settles the argument once and for all when it is realised there isn't any.

Meanwhile in May, a new forum member asks if anyone has any opinion on Voyagers. The internet goes down for a fortnight.

Infrastructure and Stations: on April 1st, a new poster asks what those funny white signs are underneath platforms with the red sliders on and the numbers alongside. You know, the ones that look like faders on a mixer. Railsigns explodes.

The NR Route Managing Director (Western) discovers the Dawlish Sea Wall thread, and has it printed off for bedtime reading at Easter. He finishes it in September, and recycles the 28,000 tonnes of paper as an off shore sea defence. The locals are up in arms about the loss of tourists due to there being no 'exciting wave action' and demand the return of his MBE.

Every thread discussing possible reopening of lines closed during the Beeching has comments complaining of the shortsightedness of those decisions approximately 50 years ago (before most of the posters were born). Meanwhile another thread predicting what is going to happen this year gets it 90% wrong....

UK Railway Discussion:

A Daily Mail article on how 'hopeless' the railway is gets both barrels in a public Facebook response from a TOC MD, with a quote of 'why let the facts get in the way of a story'. The journo is too scared to respond.

Meanwhile jonmorris0844 posts to announce that he has been sent a fancy new winter jacket, which arrived unsolicited, postmarked Derby. A week later two of the buttons fall off.

Three weeks before every new franchise is due to be announced, a poster confidently predicts who will win it, based on a discussion with a bloke down the pub who once played tennis with the wife of an ex guard who knows someone who empties the bins in the York drivers' signing on point. Three weeks later the announcement is made, and it is a surprise to everyone, not least the winner.

October sees a dramatic twist, with the latest wiki-leaks release giving out the real names of all Rail Forums members. It is realised that those who appear to be knowledgeable about all things rail related are either a) actually working for North Korean intelligence, b) 14 year old girls taking the p*ss, or c) rail employees just making it up for a laugh.

And finally, on December 31st infobleep posts to say he has finally caught an SWT service that runs on time. Unfortunately it is scheduled to reach Guildford at 0001, and therefore counts as next year.


Happy New Year!

(Ps one of these has already happened...)
 
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RichmondCommu

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...at a time when people complain that more and more people are priced off the railways (I know, I know...)

One question. How often do you catch an early morning service from Yorkshire to London? Take a look at the current prices for tickets and then try and tell me that people are not being priced off the railways.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Yes. Quite.

What as in quite that the 'gag' has fallen flat?
 

MidnightFlyer

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How about some Rail Forums predictions... (With apologies in advance to those that are mentioned, it is good natured I promise!)
...

That might be the funniest thing I have ever read on here. Absolutely superb :lol:
 

clc

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Glasgow City Council announces that GARL is cancelled again. Blames it on the Scottish Government which is well known for being anti Glasgow. The preferred solution is now a free shuttle bus to Paisley Gilmour Street, subject to fact finding visits to several European cities where, coincidentally, Celtic are playing Europa league ties.
 

bussnapperwm

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MidlandMetro City Centre extension opening will be postponed twice til Mid 2016 due to the wrong kind of wind/rain/flying pigs.

Signal problems will affect the Birmingham Snow Hill lines.

More fatalities on the railways will happen this year then last.

At least 2 buses will have fires.

At least one major stabbing on a bus.

NXWM ordering Enviro400MMCs

Conservatives get a slight majority, by 1 MP in the election

LM will raise fares in the Centro area in September.

And finally, I will become rich...
 

northwichcat

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There'll be meltdown on the Forum if Stagecoach win the Transpennine franchise (since that'll give them a monopoly on even more flows, and monopolies are bad, unless they are like the 100% monopoly that British Rail had in the good old days which is apparently entirely different...).

Or if Govia win Northern and Kelios/Go-Ahead win TPE.

I think we can ignore the Greens from any coalition because I don't think that they'll win more than a couple of seats under First Past The Post even if they get 10-15% of the vote (and I say this as someone who's voted Green a few times, and supports electoral reform). I don't think that any party with just a couple of MPs would be in a position to make significant demands.

The Greens may not be expected to win many seats but if Labour get the most seats but fall just short of having over 50%, forming a Coalition with some smaller parties would be a way of getting over the 50% mark.

We've had some amazing complaints about this in 2014 - my favourite two on this Forum being that the 350/4s weren't "new" (because they weren't as new as the 350/3s which hadn't entered service at that point) and that the 350/4s weren't "modern" (because they weren't as modern as the currently unbuilt 700s/800s).

I think the complaint about the 350/4s being not modern is because the 380s were of a newer design opposed to unbuilt trains. It was a bit like a bus operator telling Optare they don't want the Solo SRs, they want the original Solos.

That's believable.

They've already tried to turn the Manchester Hub ambitions into the Northern Hub (with a loop at Grindleford being about the only infrastructure in the Northern Hub outside Greater Manchester) - they'll have their sights on dominating "the north" too.

Apart from it was Metro who proposed renaming the Manchester Hub to be Northern Hub. The Northern Hub did include improvements at Marsden, which were dropped in lieu of electrification. There is also more provision for service enhancements in both Sheffield and Leeds without additional track or platforms.
 
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CC 72100

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Traction and Rolling Stock: The debate about seat comfort on class 387 and 700s continues throughout the year, with forum members taking rulers and pliance meters on board to measure padding depth and 'give'. A new correspondent from Paris, a Monsieur Ricard de N'avec-Cheveux-Pas, invites everyone over to sample the upholstery on RER line A, which settles the argument once and for all when it is realised there isn't any.

Excellent :lol:

Top post!
 

bluenoxid

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2,555 railway stations on the National Rail network as of 31st December 2015 :)
 

Rapidash

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Exeter City Council will finally introduce a congestion charge, resulting in 30,000 people attempting to get on a single Pacer to get home in the evenings. RAIB starts an investigation into why some passengers were allowed to stand in the toilet.
 

158756

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Electrification costs continue to rise.
North TPE postponed indefinitely. Electric Spine quietly dropped.
Northern Hub descoped.
Next Northern franchise to use both 142s and D78s.

There will be one piece of good news though: Virgin will arrive to save the ECML and order new SETs from Hitachi...

And there will be a flurry of MPs complaining about or promising to improve the railway in April.
 

Ken Hunter

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Interesting to see how electrification in Scotland proceeds. And the new franchise. Is it a private monopoly rather than a public one?
 

Manchester77

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Interesting to see how electrification in Scotland proceeds. And the new franchise. Is it a private monopoly rather than a public one?

Yes its been awarded to abellio because Scotland doesn't have powers devolved to run the franchise in the public sector.
 
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