Interesting market research regarding Northern Rail

[northwichcat]

I've just taken part in some market research regarding Northern Rail. I imagine it could be on behalf of one of the companies shortlisted for the next franchise.

The topics they were asking about included replacing 3+2 seating with 2+2 seating, more luggage space, more tables, better window seat alignment, air conditioning, ticketing, wi-fi, on board toilets, customer information, staffing levels, increasing service frequency etc.

However, after asking about those topics, guess what comes next. If your ticket costs £15 now, how much would you be willing to pay if x, y, z etc happened.

 

[Simon11]

The final aspect is all trying to work out how much you are willing to pay for the above features. If no one would be prepared to pay more if there were more tables, then there isn't much point in doing this for increasing revenue. BTW, this isn't about increasing prices due to extra features, but due to additional demand brought on by a better service.

 

[gordonthemoron]

they should put Adelantes on the Chester-Manchester via Knutsford route

 

[northwichcat]

The final aspect is all trying to work out how much you are willing to pay for the above features. If no one would be prepared to pay more if there were more tables, then there isn't much point in doing this for increasing revenue. BTW, this isn't about increasing prices due to extra features, but due to additional demand brought on by a better service.

There was also a question asking about how many extra journeys you might make if x, y and z happened.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

they should put Adelantes on the Chester-Manchester via Knutsford route

No options for saying a type of train, only the features the train has/gets.

 

[trainophile]

I'd settle for seats that didn't feel like sitting on church pews, and had room for an average-sized person's knees to fit in behind the seat in front.

Is this research academic, or do they really intend to make improvements?

 

[Howardh]

R/e Northern, most journeys passengers take would probably be under 45 mins, many a lot less, so reading through their facebook pages I would say passengers want
1. A train to turn up on time
2. That train to be clean
3. A seat.
Anything else in Northernland would be considered a luxury.

 

[trainophile]

R/e Northern, most journeys passengers take would probably be under 45 mins, many a lot less, so reading through their facebook pages I would say passengers want
1. A train to turn up on time
2. That train to be clean
3. A seat.
Anything else in Northernland would be considered a luxury.

Southport to Man Picc = 1 hour and 15 minutes. Anyone unlucky enough to be going on to the airport = 1 hour and 35 minutes. Hard, upright, cramped seats, very little luggage space, and the only toilet often locked out of use.

Anyone boarding beyond Wigan will be lucky to get a seat, especially on the sweet little [sarcasm] 2-coach Pacers they generally use on that route.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

I've just taken part in some market research regarding Northern Rail. I imagine it could be on behalf of one of the companies shortlisted for the next franchise.

The topics they were asking about included replacing 3+2 seating with 2+2 seating, more luggage space, more tables, better window seat alignment, air conditioning, ticketing, wi-fi, on board toilets, customer information, staffing levels, increasing service frequency etc.

However, after asking about those topics, guess what comes next. If your ticket costs £15 now, how much would you be willing to pay if x, y, z etc happened.

How did you fill in the survey?

 

[fowler9]

I'd make do with a 37 and 4 Mk 2's once an hour to West Allerton. Failing that a 156 every 30 mins will suffice as currently. Apart from within the evening peak where people have to pay more from Manchester and the services without fail run about 15 minutes late for most of the journey.

 

[thelem]

I doubt they're checking to see if it would be a popular move to replace 3+2 seating with 2+2 and increase prices by 20%, but pricing is a good way of seeing how valuable something is to someone, particularly if you were asked to rate several things separately.

e.g. if we take 3+2 no tables as a baseline, then assume it costs:
a) 10% of capacity to go to 3+2 small table (1 seat width at window)
b) 15% of capacity to go to 2+2 airline + seat back tables
c) 20% of capacity to go to 2+2 facing + decent tables

You might find that people were really interested in having any form of table, so would pay extra for option a, but wouldn't add much of a premium on top of that for options b and c.

For other people it might be the seat width that was important, so they'd pay similar amounts extra for b and c, but wouldn't really care about a.

You can then use that, combined with all the other constraints that you have, to design your train service.

 

[Philip]

I've just taken part in some market research regarding Northern Rail. I imagine it could be on behalf of one of the companies shortlisted for the next franchise.

The topics they were asking about included replacing 3+2 seating with 2+2 seating, more luggage space, more tables, better window seat alignment, air conditioning, ticketing, wi-fi, on board toilets, customer information, staffing levels, increasing service frequency etc.

However, after asking about those topics, guess what comes next. If your ticket costs £15 now, how much would you be willing to pay if x, y, z etc happened.

You seem to have a bit of a problem with Northern in general. Don't you think Northern are doing the best they can with what they've got? They don't get enough subsidy from the government to buy new trains. They have not long since finished a major internal and external refurbishment of the trains. Station booking offices have been refurbished too. Take the loco-hauled sets being used on Saturdays - this was Northern's idea, they didn't have to do this, I think Northern deserve more credit than they get. I know you think the Mid-Cheshire line needs more trains but really the service it currently has is quite enough and arguably the trains used for the peak time extras could be put to better use to improve capacity on the Bolton route.

 

[WatcherZero]

The thing that's confusing me is the chatter about the forming bids is that they are going for large number of additional services to deal with capacity issues rather than longer trains. I would have thought lengthening rather than additional services would have been far more cost efficient way of achieving capacity increase.

 

[fowler9]

The thing that's confusing me is the chatter about the forming bids is that they are going for large number of additional services to deal with capacity issues rather than longer trains. I would have thought lengthening rather than additional services would have been far more cost efficient way of achieving capacity increase.

Yeah I agree that if they doubled the length of the peak our Manchester Oxford Road to Liverpool service for example it wouldn't be routinely late.

 

[WatcherZero]

I suppose the PTE's and some rural areas do have long lists of additional frequencies or destinations they would like to see and the bidders may see potentially lucrative untapped markets. There hasn't been a wholesale reassessment of services since privatisation just extra frequencies or lengthened services inserted here and there.

 

[northwichcat]

I know you think the Mid-Cheshire line needs more trains but really the service it currently has is quite enough and arguably the trains used for the peak time extras could be put to better use to improve capacity on the Bolton route.

Other posters seem to be bothered that threads get started about one topic and then a load of posts about the Mid-Cheshire line then appear even though they are only vaguely related to the original post. However, when you post rubbish like that I can't just ignore it.

I suggest you travel on the 07:17 Manchester-Chester service as least as far as Greenbank one weekday in January after the schools/colleges are back. That service is more overcrowded than any service on the Preston-Hazel Grove diagram which is set to be strengthened (as a direct result of the 319s being introduced on Chat Moss) but as the latter includes services which are overcrowded on arrival/departure from central Manchester it wrongly gets priority. If you're feeling up for a real challenge then get Metrolink to Altrincham and then try and get on the train the 07:17 Manchester-Chester at Altrincham, if the booked 150 turns up you can stand just inside the doors, if a 142 stands in then you might get left on the platform for an hour. How often do Bolton passengers spend 60 minutes on the platform after a train being too full for them to board?

The problem with the peak time extras on the Mid-Cheshire line is they only do Stockport-Chester when most people want to go to Manchester. How busy do you think Preston-Bolton-Salford Crescent stopping services would be if they didn't continue to Manchester?

Knutsford station gets just over 500,000 journeys per annum. According to TfGM any station with that level of patronage should get a standard pattern of 4tph, yet Knutsford gets 1tph. You can count on one hand the number of stations with a standard pattern of 1tph which get over 500,000.

I think the real problem you think the Bolton corridor should always be number 1 priority for Northern and you object to anyone suggesting extra capacity until Bolton has at least 10 carriages on every service.

 

[northwichcat]

How did you fill in the survey?

The change that would most likely result in me using the train more would be an increased frequency.

Having clean working on board toilets shouldn't be seen as a luxury.

Keeping passengers informed of service alterations is important.

That an increased frequency or wi-fi were the only things that could justify a small fares increase.

I didn't like the idea of being able to get your ticket elsewhere (e.g. at Post Office or Supermarket) and but paying a 'convenience fee' to do so.

Having more staff around can make passengers feel safer but I wouldn't be happy for ticket prices to increase to pay for it.

I like the ideas of replacing 3+2 seating with 2+2 seating, more luggage space and more tables but again I wouldn't be happy for ticket prices to increase to pay for it.

That if improved/extra parking facilities are provided at stations it shouldn't be paid for by raising ticket prices.

 

[northwichcat]

1. A train to turn up on time

That just reminded me. One other thing they asked is whether you'd rather have shorter journey times or extended journey times and more trains on time.

 

[gordonthemoron]

also the extras on chester-knutsford-manchester only run chester-Stockport in the morning peak and vv in the evening peak. The service needs strengthening in both directions in both peaks

 

[northwichcat]

and vv in the evening peak.

Which doesn't really help achieve anything.

The 15:59, 16:59 and 17:59 Chester-Manchesters are overcrowded between Knutsford and Altrincham (the 14:49 also would be if it wasn't 4 car), while the 15:17 and 16:17 Manchester-Chesters are overcrowded between Altrincham and Knutsford.

What's needed as a short term fix is something like a 15:50 Manchester-Greenbank and a 16:50 Manchester-Greenbank, which both do return workings to Stockport/Manchester instead of the Stockport-Chester services. Also the 17:09 Piccadilly-Chester to run at around 17:35 instead.

 

[yorksrob]

I like the ideas of replacing 3+2 seating with 2+2 seating, more luggage space and more tables but again I wouldn't be happy for ticket prices to increase to pay for it.

I don't think it's justifiable for them to suggest that tables would require an increase in fares. They should do this as a matter of course in the refurb.

 

[Howardh]

Southport to Man Picc = 1 hour and 15 minutes. Anyone unlucky enough to be going on to the airport = 1 hour and 35 minutes. Hard, upright, cramped seats, very little luggage space, and the only toilet often locked out of use.

Anyone boarding beyond Wigan will be lucky to get a seat, especially on the sweet little [sarcasm] 2-coach Pacers they generally use on that route.

Would Southport - Manchester/Man Airport via Liverpool not be a more agreeable journey, or are the prices/times significantly greater?

 

[Hellfire]

R/e Northern, most journeys passengers take would probably be under 45 mins, many a lot less, so reading through their facebook pages I would say passengers want
1. A train to turn up on time
2. That train to be clean
3. A seat.
Anything else in Northernland would be considered a luxury.

We dream of trains turning up on time on the Clitheroe line. In fact, we often dream of trains turning up at all sometimes. Over the last few months there have been several occasions where they have cancelled the last train from Victoria to Clitheroe usually either citing shortage of crew or train fault. In fact, a day doesn't go by when the Northern Twitter feed doesn't have trains cancelled across their network for one or other of those reasons.

It's all very well people rushing onto this forum to argue that Northern do the best they can with what they have but the average passenger isn't interested in the reasons a train is late, cancelled or short formed. They just want to get to their destination in a timely manner.

 

[Bletchleyite]

However, after asking about those topics, guess what comes next. If your ticket costs £15 now, how much would you be willing to pay if x, y, z etc happened.

That's a valid thing to do for a number of reasons. One might be considering general fare increases. Another might be that if 25% of those surveyed say they would pay more for those features, say, perhaps First Class could be introduced, with Standard remaining as it is? Then those 25% can pay more for the improved quality of environment, and those who would rather pay the current prices for the current low quality of travelling environment can continue to do so.

That's how it works in the South East.

Neil

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't think it's justifiable for them to suggest that tables would require an increase in fares. They should do this as a matter of course in the refurb.

Hang on a minute. There is overcrowding. There is no more rolling stock for now. Why on earth would it make sense to install wide 2+2 and tables, as that will only reduce capacity further?

Narrow 2+2 to give more standing room might make sense, but that's a different argument.

Neil

 

[northwichcat]

Hang on a minute. There is overcrowding. There is no more rolling stock for now. Why on earth would it make sense to install wide 2+2 and tables, as that will only reduce capacity further?

Narrow 2+2 to give more standing room might make sense, but that's a different argument.

Neil

As I suggested in my original post I think it's a bidder for the next franchise (who could be running services until something like 2023) who's sanctioned the market research, not Northern Rail who only have 14 months left to run on the franchise and don't have any real flexibility to introduce the changes suggested.

 

[Philip]

Other posters seem to be bothered that threads get started about one topic and then a load of posts about the Mid-Cheshire line then appear even though they are only vaguely related to the original post. However, when you post rubbish like that I can't just ignore it.

I suggest you travel on the 07:17 Manchester-Chester service as least as far as Greenbank one weekday in January after the schools/colleges are back. That service is more overcrowded than any service on the Preston-Hazel Grove diagram which is set to be strengthened (as a direct result of the 319s being introduced on Chat Moss) but as the latter includes services which are overcrowded on arrival/departure from central Manchester it wrongly gets priority. If you're feeling up for a real challenge then get Metrolink to Altrincham and then try and get on the train the 07:17 Manchester-Chester at Altrincham, if the booked 150 turns up you can stand just inside the doors, if a 142 stands in then you might get left on the platform for an hour. How often do Bolton passengers spend 60 minutes on the platform after a train being too full for them to board?

The problem with the peak time extras on the Mid-Cheshire line is they only do Stockport-Chester when most people want to go to Manchester. How busy do you think Preston-Bolton-Salford Crescent stopping services would be if they didn't continue to Manchester?

Knutsford station gets just over 500,000 journeys per annum. According to TfGM any station with that level of patronage should get a standard pattern of 4tph, yet Knutsford gets 1tph. You can count on one hand the number of stations with a standard pattern of 1tph which get over 500,000.

I think the real problem you think the Bolton corridor should always be number 1 priority for Northern and you object to anyone suggesting extra capacity until Bolton has at least 10 carriages on every service.

Your last bit about the £15 ticket to me seemed like yet another pointless dig at Northern so I'm wondering why you're so negative about them. I saw one of your posts on another thread saying you hope they lose the franchise. I think you're being very unfair on Northern. Yes the rolling stock isn't fantastic but Northern can't help that. Bringing 180s onto the Blackpool and Preston services for a few years and now the loco hauled stock shows that Northern do care. Northern allocate the stock the best way they can and Chester stoppers isn't number 1 on the priority list in this area and nor should it be. You have named one train on that line which is packed which can be said for a lot of routes. On the Atherton and Bolton lines there are probably at least 5 or 6 sardine trains between them in the morning and a similar number in the evening.

Northern have no choice but to strengthen more Bolton line trains because of the mess left behind by the re-routeing of the Scottish services. Therefore any paths available after the Ordsall Chord opens should be used for this route. TPE running Newcastle services through Victoria hasn't helped things on the Atherton line with the loss of through services to Stalybridge. Northern have been left a raw deal and do the best they can with what they have.

 

[fowler9]

Would Southport - Manchester/Man Airport via Liverpool not be a more agreeable journey, or are the prices/times significantly greater?

Well it is 45 minutes from Southport to Central, then a stroll to Lime Street. If your connection works at Lime Street then it is another hour and 8 minutes to Manchester Airport. Best just not living in Southport.

 

[northwichcat]

Your last bit about the £15 ticket to me seemed like yet another pointless dig at Northern so I'm wondering why you're so negative about them.

Oh dear God. I said in the original post I thought the research was being done on behalf of one of the bidders of the next franchise not Northern. Any suggestion that I'm having a pointless dig at Northern is just what's going around your head.

Let's face it you decided to have yet another dig about the Mid-Cheshire line deserving nothing and the Bolton line deserving everything just because you saw that I was the author of the original post and it was related to Northern Rail. I think you're just jealous that there is a strong business case for an improved service on the Mid-Cheshire line which threatens the Bolton line getting more 4/6 carriage trains in the short term.

You also responded to my recent post with a complete load of rubbish. I asked you how many times on the Bolton line you'd have to wait an hour for the next service if first one was too full to board. The answer of course is never except in the case of severe disruption as Bolton is extremely lucky to have a service every 5-10 minutes to Manchester. The 07:17 Manchester-Chester is not the only overcrowded service on the Mid-Cheshire line - it's the one with the worse overcrowding.

Incidentally regarding the 180s get your facts right - Northern were going to run a Hazel Grove-Bolton service until they secured cascaded 150s but thanks to GMPTE funding they secured the 180s and were able to run an hourly Hazel Grove-Preston service ahead of the 150s being made available.

 

[thelem]

The thing that's confusing me is the chatter about the forming bids is that they are going for large number of additional services to deal with capacity issues rather than longer trains. I would have thought lengthening rather than additional services would have been far more cost efficient way of achieving capacity increase.

Assuming both options offer the same capacity increase, e.g. 3 coaches per hour to 6 coaches per hour or whatever:

Up front costs either option could be cheaper depending on the current bottlenecks - can the lines cope with more frequent trains, and can the platforms cope with longer trains.

Rolling stock costs are identical in both scenarios.

A more frequent service will cost a bit more to run due to staff costs, and I guess would end up incurring more fines (because they would have to cancel trains rather than short forming them). That needs to be balanced against revenue - a more frequent service will mean more passengers use it, hopefully more than paying for the additional costs.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As I suggested in my original post I think it's a bidder for the next franchise (who could be running services until something like 2023) who's sanctioned the market research, not Northern Rail who only have 14 months left to run on the franchise and don't have any real flexibility to introduce the changes suggested.

Quite possibly. It does get listened to, though - I remember being surveyed about the 1990s TPE interior refurbs on the 158s and suggesting wood effect panelling and tables would look very classy, and said wood effect panelling and tables was delivered soon afterwards. And with the deep blue seats indeed looked very classy.

Neil
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

A more frequent service will cost a bit more to run due to staff costs, and I guess would end up incurring more fines (because they would have to cancel trains rather than short forming them). That needs to be balanced against revenue - a more frequent service will mean more passengers use it, hopefully more than paying for the additional costs.

...and making it full again.

Remember what happened to XC. Double the frequency where there's lots of latent demand, and you'll soon have to double the capacity as well.

What XC needed wasn't 4 cars hourly rather than 8 2-hourly. It needed 8 cars hourly.

Neil