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Network Rail confirmed plans for CP5 and aspirations for CP6

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jimm

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An assumption is being made that Voyagers and Meridians will be permitted to the same speeds as a 158 / 170 / HST.

I believe you will find some Differential Speed Limits on the Highland Mainline and between Inverness and Aberdeen therefore I would be surprised if Voyagers will be allowed to used the higher speeds, therefore increasing journey times.

This is rather like going on about how 22xs can't run at Sprinter differential speeds from Ely to Norwich.

Should someone ever take it into their head to use 22xs to Norwich, or in Scotland, someone from Network Rail will presumably look at the various reasons for the differential limits and work out whether it's worth doing work on the infrastructure to allow their use at the higher speed. But we're several years from that becoming a possibility, so we'll just have to wait and see.
 
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Class83

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An assumption is being made that Voyagers and Meridians will be permitted to the same speeds as a 158 / 170 / HST.

I believe you will find some Differential Speed Limits on the Highland Mainline and between Inverness and Aberdeen therefore I would be surprised if Voyagers will be allowed to used the higher speeds, therefore increasing journey times.

I expect Voyagers/Meridians would only be used on the 'Express' routes and not Aberdeen-Inverness. All of which except Glasgow-Stirling and Ladybank-Perth are used by HSTs daily.
 

Altnabreac

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To achieve the major rail projects in Scotland that have been made reference to in this thread, what percentage of the GDP in Scotland would need to be dedicated to the achievement of these ?

Predicted total Scottish spend by Network Rail in CP5 is £4,069,000,000 (£4.1Bn), of this £1,430,000,000 (£1.4Bn) is enhancements spend.

See page 35 of the Strategic Buisiness Plan for Scotland here:
http://www.networkrail.co.uk/publications/strategic-business-plan-for-cp5/

Scotland's annual GDP in 2012 was £126Bn (excluding oil) or £145Bn (including geographic share of oil).
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy

If we project GDP growth forward at 2.0% a year a projected total Scottish GDP in CP5 is around £682Bn (excluding oil) or £785Bn (including geographic share of oil).

This would make total Network Rail spend in CP5 either 0.60% of GDP (excluding oil) or 0.52% of GDP (including geographic share of oil).

Enhancements spending in CP5 would be either 0.21% of GDP (excluding oil) or 0.18% of GDP (including geographic share of oil).

Whichever numbers you use its not a huge amount of the total economy.
 

NotATrainspott

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Continuing on the theme of public investment in the railways not being an enormous amount of money: all public spending on real things (not quantitative easing or banking) results in increased tax revenues for the government as it is spent on things which are taxed. Spend £1bn on a new line and so long as it is primarily worked on and supplied by companies paying tax in the UK and most, if not all, of that £1bn eventually ends up back in the government's coffers. It's a Keynesian fact which is very often forgotten by the people who demand massive cuts in useful (i.e. not banking bailout) public spending.
 

Olaf

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Continuing on the theme of public investment in the railways not being an enormous amount of money: all public spending on real things (not quantitative easing or banking) results in increased tax revenues for the government as it is spent on things which are taxed. Spend £1bn on a new line and so long as it is primarily worked on and supplied by companies paying tax in the UK and most, if not all, of that £1bn eventually ends up back in the government's coffers. It's a Keynesian fact which is very often forgotten by the people who demand massive cuts in useful (i.e. not banking bailout) public spending.

... but you must first borrow the funds which is more risky these days, a then invest in a service with low ridership and which will require substantial funding each year just to keep current services going.
 

The Ham

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... but you must first borrow the funds which is more risky these days, a then invest in a service with low ridership and which will require substantial funding each year just to keep current services going.

Although those costs (borrowing & subsidy) may still be a lot less than the benefit which is seen.

For instance, if the rail line allows new development to occur, new business to start, a reduction in subsidies to other services (i.e. buses), less unemployed people, etc. then it can still be well worth spending the money.

Even on the very macro level, the subsidy funds two workers being paid a total of £50,000, then (assuming that neither member of staff is being paid so they pay higher rate tax) then the government would receive back about £10,000 straight away in direct tax. Then as soon as they start to buy goods and services there would VAT which would be being paid to HMRC on certain things.

In addition as soon as they buy goods or services the companies also employ staff (who pay tax and NI) and have taxes on their profits, business premisses, etc.

If those two members of staff where also previously unemployed then they reduce the cost to the government by not needing benefits. However even if they were not unemployed then chances somewhere down the chain there would be, (i.e. someone takes job A by leaving job B which is filled by a person leaving job C, and so on until job 'n' is filled by someone who was previously unemployed) which would still result in the number of people unemployed falling.

It is also likely that the amount of tax received from all the people in that chain would also likely go up, or at the least on average go up (as most people tend to move to a job which pays better, although there are always cases of people getting jobs closer to home, taking semi retirement, etc. which buck that trend).
 

Olaf

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Interesting article on Electrification - touching on the issues about the southern end of the electric spine along with other schemes:
http://www.therailengineer.com/2014/03/26/lessons-for-future/
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Although those costs (borrowing & subsidy) may still be a lot less than the benefit which is seen.

For instance, if the rail line allows new development to occur, new business to start, a reduction in subsidies to other services (i.e. buses), less unemployed people, etc. then it can still be well worth spending the money.

Even on the very macro level, the subsidy funds two workers being paid a total of £50,000, then (assuming that neither member of staff is being paid so they pay higher rate tax) then the government would receive back about £10,000 straight away in direct tax. Then as soon as they start to buy goods and services there would VAT which would be being paid to HMRC on certain things.

In addition as soon as they buy goods or services the companies also employ staff (who pay tax and NI) and have taxes on their profits, business premisses, etc.

If those two members of staff where also previously unemployed then they reduce the cost to the government by not needing benefits. However even if they were not unemployed then chances somewhere down the chain there would be, (i.e. someone takes job A by leaving job B which is filled by a person leaving job C, and so on until job 'n' is filled by someone who was previously unemployed) which would still result in the number of people unemployed falling.

It is also likely that the amount of tax received from all the people in that chain would also likely go up, or at the least on average go up (as most people tend to move to a job which pays better, although there are always cases of people getting jobs closer to home, taking semi retirement, etc. which buck that trend).

That is what BCR analysis is all about.
 
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physics34

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I see platform lengthening for the Uckfield Lins is in there with plans to extend all platforms from Hever to Uckfield to 10 cars for 170 and 171 stock.

Even more interestingly there is no start or completion date for the works however there is a note that completion should be considered by December 2016 in line requirements emerging from the TGSN franchise.

So now just need to find those surplus Class 170s and 171s to actually run the longer trains!

I think work has started on extending the platforms at Hever.

There is certainly alot of cutting back of vegetation in the area that the platform extensions will go and also alot of contractors on site doing surveys etc.
 
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Bald Rick

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I think work has started on extending the platforms at Hever.

There is certainly alot of cutting back of vegetation in the area that the platform extensions will go and also alot of contractors on site doing surveys etc.

The vegetation work is for autumn - see the leaf fall thread.
 

physics34

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The vegetation work is for autumn - see the leaf fall thread.

its more bushes, shrubs and grass thats being cleared rather than trees.....
in the area after the platforms...about 5 coaches length coincidentally. And there were loads of fellas with clipboards about, i doubt they would be there just for tree cutting.

*update: ive just looked at the network rail CP5 june update and it does look too early for them to start extending the platforms according to the planning timetable. Maybe it IS just for clearing vegetation then or maybe its just for a survey*

http://www.networkrail.co.uk/cp5-delivery-plan/cp5-enhancements-delivery-plan.pdf
 
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Chrisgr31

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its more bushes, shrubs and grass thats being cleared rather than trees.....
in the area after the platforms...about 5 coaches length coincidentally. And there were loads of fellas with clipboards about, i doubt they would be there just for tree cutting.

*update: ive just looked at the network rail CP5 june update and it does look too early for them to start extending the platforms according to the planning timetable. Maybe it IS just for clearing vegetation then or maybe its just for a survey*

http://www.networkrail.co.uk/cp5-delivery-plan/cp5-enhancements-delivery-plan.pdf

This evening I noticed on the way home there was plant in the yard next to the car park at Hever, didn't really have time to see what it was but think it was on a trailer behind a Defender. There was also plant at Cowden, this time I did see it was a drilling rig of some type being towed by a Defender. I also notices that on the down side at Ashurst they have cleared vegetation and the amount cleared appeared consistent with the platform lengthening required.

they have in addition done a fair amount of work on the embankments and cuttings in vegetation clearance.

However it does look as if there are two different projects under way, one clearing vegetation and the other doing some form of preliminary work for the platform lengthening.
 

physics34

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This evening I noticed on the way home there was plant in the yard next to the car park at Hever, didn't really have time to see what it was but think it was on a trailer behind a Defender. There was also plant at Cowden, this time I did see it was a drilling rig of some type being towed by a Defender. I also notices that on the down side at Ashurst they have cleared vegetation and the amount cleared appeared consistent with the platform lengthening required.

they have in addition done a fair amount of work on the embankments and cuttings in vegetation clearance.

However it does look as if there are two different projects under way, one clearing vegetation and the other doing some form of preliminary work for the platform lengthening.

yeah the plant at Hever seems to have been abandoned, its been there for 4 days ;)

Its branded 'Bam' who are definitely a construction company (part of Nuttall).

It might just be coincidence and they are just cutting back vegetation, but the distance they have done is pretty much 5 coaches worth, the distance needed to extend the platforms to 10 car 171.

Edenbridge Town on the down line and Eridge also seem to have had some preparatory work done.

It still seems to be along way off though before southern will have enough stock to run 10 car DMUs!
 
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physics34

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I am not sure how many additional carriages they need to upgrade the service?

I was reading this thread and pondering http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=105750 would 18 additional carriages do it?

I think 14 was the number quoted . The two busiest peak hour services would become 10 car and the other services would become 6 or 8.

They wouldn't have to be 170s as class 15x service units are compatible with 171s barring the dellner couplers.
 
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northwichcat

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I think 14 was the number quoted . The two busiest peak hour services would become 10 car and the other services would become 6 or 8.

They wouldn't have to be 170s as class 15x service units are compatible.

Are 171s compatiable with Sprinters? I know 170s are but 171s have a different coupler to be compatible with Electrostars.
 

Chrisgr31

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Well don't forget those on the Uckfield Line had to put up with the Class 205s for a long long time!
 

Olaf

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That's pretty bad, but if, say, the Uckfield line got 150s, the whole of the populace on the line would probably revolt!:lol:

I heard that Surrey has agreed to cascade it's old roads up't North in the new year.
 

Bald Rick

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I heard that Surrey has agreed to cascade it's old roads up't North in the new year.

You're getting mixed up. Manchester Utd are cascading lots of old fans back down the M6/M1 to Surrey.
 

Chrisgr31

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yeah the plant at Hever seems to have been abandoned, its been there for 4 days ;)

Its branded 'Bam' who are definitely a construction company (part of Nuttall).

It might just be coincidence and they are just cutting back vegetation, but the distance they have done is pretty much 5 coaches worth, the distance needed to extend the platforms to 10 car 171.

Edenbridge Town on the down line and Eridge also seem to have had some preparatory work done.

It still seems to be along way off though before southern will have enough stock to run 10 car DMUs!

I tweeted Southern to ask the other day. They passed the tweet on to Network Rail, who replied to state that the intention was to deliver the longer platforms by November 2016. That ties in with rumours of the longer trains starting in Dec 2016. However doesnt answer where the stock is coming from!
 

physics34

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I tweeted Southern to ask the other day. They passed the tweet on to Network Rail, who replied to state that the intention was to deliver the longer platforms by November 2016. That ties in with rumours of the longer trains starting in Dec 2016. However doesnt answer where the stock is coming from!

ah, ok, yeh its a mystery! maybe someone will magic some 170s out of the air.
 

Class377/5

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I tweeted Southern to ask the other day. They passed the tweet on to Network Rail, who replied to state that the intention was to deliver the longer platforms by November 2016. That ties in with rumours of the longer trains starting in Dec 2016. However doesnt answer where the stock is coming from!

Its not. The original idea was to have the 170s off TPE as Govia had identified them as being available in its bid. However now they are been grabbed by Chiltern there is no stock actually assign to GTRs plan.
 

physics34

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Its not. The original idea was to have the 170s off TPE as Govia had identified them as being available in its bid. However now they are been grabbed by Chiltern there is no stock actually assign to GTRs plan.

id imagine once the platforms have been extended im pretty sure they would be happy down there with any stock whether its a 170, a 158 or a 165. Maybe some of them are available after all the 319/365/317/321/387 cascades in the next few years.
 

Shempz

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Wow....so in 2 years time, there is a chance (albeit slim), that I may actually be able to get a seat on the 6:55 at Ashurst in the mornings!
 
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