Expected changes to Northern & TPE with stock changes

[Class377/5]

Indeed. I can't see TPE being happily agreeing to the lease back deal if it involves them keeping 4 or 5 170s and taking on a few cascaded 158s from Northern to replace the cascaded 170s opposed to having 8-9 of the same type of train even if they can operate 158s and 170s in multiple.

Nope and something often overlooked is the cost of training for staff as well. Was mentioned to me that one of the issues facing the 319s going to Northern is no-one has money to train the staff (drivers, guards, fitters). Even going from a 375 to a 377 takes a day, multiple that by the amount of drivers and their trainers and you into six digits costs wise. Now going from a pacer or sprinter to 319 is a much bigger change and someone has to present and pay for the business case.

 

[northwichcat]

Nope and something often overlooked is the cost of training for staff as well. Was mentioned to me that one of the issues facing the 319s going to Northern is no-one has money to train the staff (drivers, guards, fitters). Even going from a 375 to a 377 takes a day, multiple that by the amount of drivers and their trainers and you into six digits costs wise. Now going from a pacer or sprinter to 319 is a much bigger change and someone has to present and pay for the business case.

I wonder if Northern wanting to use the 319s on Liverpool-Airport services opposed to Liverpool-Victoria and Liverpool-Wigan stoppers is because it'll then be Piccadilly crews (who already sign 323s) who learn the 319s, opposed to the Lime Street, Victoria and Wigan crews who only sign Pacers and Sprinters.

The 319s are apparently going to be based at the Allerton depot which only recently re-opened and only currently deals with 156s.

 

[158722]

How many Edinburgh & Glasgow TPE services are still to be 185s after the introduction of the 350/4s? At least one, possibly two on Fridays? Assuming they are not routed Bolton, could a couple of 350/3s be subleased to TPE as cover until Dec 2016? One way of providing a couple of extra 185s to fill the potential 170 gap.

LM still get most of their new trains, just not all of them yet... A situation which is a bit different to loosing stock, which appears to be the concern at NOR and TPE. In turn, LM could gain a couple of 323s from NOR in place of the 350s, with NOR having received a few more 319s as the 387s come out.

 

[swt_passenger]

And possibly longer if Chiltern get the LO 172s in 2017.

You cannot really assume the LO 172s will be available in 2017 yet, there is no date set for the relevant electrification.

 

[northwichcat]

How many Edinburgh & Glasgow TPE services are still to be 185s after the introduction of the 350/4s? At least one, possibly two on Fridays? Assuming they are not routed Bolton, could a couple of 350/3s be subleased to TPE as cover until Dec 2016? One way of providing a couple of extra 185s to fill the potential 170 gap.

LM still get most of their new trains, just not all of them yet... A situation which is a bit different to loosing stock, which appears to be the concern at NOR and TPE. In turn, LM could gain a couple of 323s from NOR in place of the 350s, with NOR having received a few more 319s as the 387s come out.

I'm not following your ideas.

TPE try to have maintenance schedules which allow more units to be in passenger service on Fridays, which is why the letters FO and FX appear on the Airport to North West/Scottish timetables. So the couple of 185s that will appear on Scottish services on Fridays won't be available on other days, they'll be undergoing maintenance.

The 319s apparently can't be used in lieu of 323s on Manchester to Stoke/Crewe services without first re-engineering the trains. I'm not sure how diagramming would work if you tried to switch the 323s on the Manchester-Alderley Edge/Airport services to 319s. Also as I've pointed out before the 323s have TfGM funded CCTV and a condition of funding is if the 323s leave their current routes the replacement units would have to have CCTV fitted prior to arrival in the Manchester area. (TfGM wanted an assurance that the 323s could remain in Greater Manchester long-term but DfT couldn't agree to that so the outcome was a compromise.)

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The 319s will displace some Northern DMUs early in 2015.
These can replace the 170s exiting TPE around then.
More cascades to follow as 319s arrive.
Have I missed something?
Also remember the DfT thinks in terms of vehicles and seats, not techy stuff like units of whatever type.
6x319s (24 vehicles) arriving in Liverpool is worth roughly 12x2-car DMUs.

 

[northwichcat]

Have I missed something?

That Northern and TPE combined were promised around 160 more carriages (not including what Northern has already received in cascades) to meet passenger growth?

That Northern need to plug gaps on the Bolton corridor left by TPE diverting via Wigan?

That a large investment has been made in the Todmorden Curve which now needs trains to run a service?

6x319s (24 vehicles) arriving in Liverpool is worth roughly 12x2-car DMUs

Ah but ony when it suits them. To replace the 3 x 180s DfT allocated 6 x 150s because of the higher class 150 capacity, even though FGW got 7 x LM 150s as direct replacement for the smaller 7 x 142s and Northern got 4 x 150s as a direct replacement for the larger 4 x 156s.

 

[47802]

All 29 387's are meant to be in service by mid 2015 so surely Thameslink can release more than 6 319's by then.

 

[hwl]

All 29 387's are meant to be in service by mid 2015 so surely Thameslink can release more than 6 319's by then.

First 387 due in service (i.e. post acceptance) is end of October 2014, with 14 units in service before end 2014, with the last (29th) in service by mid May 2015. The TSGN franchise ITT set a slight delay (1 month?) from the 387 being in service to a 319 being released. (387s entry into service is being managed by Southern).

The 377 cascade (new 377/7 to southern with some 377/2 then going to FCC/TSGN) will happen before that. Several 377/7 accumulating test mileage at the moment.

After the TSGN management contract is awarded more detail should emerge on the TSGN rolling stock plan as TSGN are responsible for releasing the 319s and other stock).

That should leave some time before the 170s disappear.

 

[northwichcat]

First 387 due in service (i.e. post acceptance) is end of October 2014, with 14 units in service before end 2014, with the last (29th) in service by mid May 2015. The TSGN franchise ITT set a slight delay (1 month?) from the 387 being in service to a 319 being released. (387s entry into service is being managed by Southern).

The 377 cascade (new 377/7 to southern with some 377/2 then going to FCC/TSGN) will happen before that. Several 377/7 accumulating test mileage at the moment.

After the TSGN management contract is awarded more detail should emerge on the TSGN rolling stock plan as TSGN are responsible for releasing the 319s and other stock).

That should leave some time before the 170s disappear.

So how exactly is that a solution given the next OHEs after Chat Moss won't be ready until 2016 and Chiltern are taking the 170s in 2015? Northern need to allocate a couple of the released units to Blackburn-Burnley-Manchester services and some for overcrowding relief, including on the Bolton corridor where TPE services are being cut back. They won't have 8 or 9 spare trains and if it's 158s needing to be released (which are used on the ex-ATN routes not the ex-FNW routes) then Northern would need to do an internal cascade and maybe train some East side crews on 150s or 156s.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

That Northern and TPE combined were promised around 160 more carriages (not including what Northern has already received in cascades) to meet passenger growth?
That Northern need to plug gaps on the Bolton corridor left by TPE diverting via Wigan?
That a large investment has been made in the Todmorden Curve which now needs trains to run a service?

Ah but ony when it suits them.

I know what you mean, of course.
But promises, to use a good old northern term, butter no parsnips in the budget-cutting real world.

If the DfT is to be believed, they no longer micro-manage rolling stock (after IEP and Thameslink).
So it's up to NT/TP to present plans for approval.
Franchise renewal is the exact time to squeeze the assets (stock, staff, service provision etc).
I think they will eventually get an increase in rolling stock, but not before they have demonstrated they are going to operate at the lowest possible cost.
It may take till the 2016 rebid before there is a proper settlement.
Just agreeing to fund layer upon layer of "promises" is not how government works during a period of budget cuts.

 

[northwichcat]

If the DfT is to be believed, they no longer micro-manage rolling stock (after IEP and Thameslink).
So it's up to NT/TP to present plans for approval.
Franchise renewal is the exact time to squeeze the assets (stock, staff, service provision etc).
I think they will eventually get an increase in rolling stock, but not before they have demonstrated they are going to operate at the lowest possible cost.
It may take till the 2016 rebid before there is a proper settlement.
Just agreeing to fund layer upon layer of "promises" is not how government works during a period of budget cuts.

What's interesting if the government no longer want any involvement is the Northern and TPE franchises would be renewed before the other franchises so that would allow Northern or TPE to do like Chiltern have and swoop to claim stock that's soon to be off-lease on a long term deal. Theoretically, that would allow TPE to agree a deal for the 20 x Voyagers in use with Virgin for their non-electrified services and give up the DMUs they currently have once they have EMUs for the newly electrified routes.

 

[Class377/5]

First 387 due in service (i.e. post acceptance) is end of October 2014, with 14 units in service before end 2014, with the last (29th) in service by mid May 2015. The TSGN franchise ITT set a slight delay (1 month?) from the 387 being in service to a 319 being released. (387s entry into service is being managed by Southern).

The 377 cascade (new 377/7 to southern with some 377/2 then going to FCC/TSGN) will happen before that. Several 377/7 accumulating test mileage at the moment.

After the TSGN management contract is awarded more detail should emerge on the TSGN rolling stock plan as TSGN are responsible for releasing the 319s and other stock).

That should leave some time before the 170s disappear.

The ITT required TSGN winner to hold on to any stock released from cascade for up to four weeks.

The final 387/1 is due in May (if the timescales are achieved) so by July 2015 there will be around 32-35x 319s for Northern to use.

The arrival of the 8x 377/7s releases 6x 377/2 to FCC who in turn releases 3x 319 (latest info is not at once either) with the remaining 3x 319s used to cover for the C4 exams on the rest to the 319 fleet that required.

The first 170s are due to be required by Chiltern in "summer 2015'.

Of course from early 2016 the 319s will start to be released on a regular basis when the 700's start coming into service.

I wonder if Northern wanting to use the 319s on Liverpool-Airport services opposed to Liverpool-Victoria and Liverpool-Wigan stoppers is because it'll then be Piccadilly crews (who already sign 323s) who learn the 319s, opposed to the Lime Street, Victoria and Wigan crews who only sign Pacers and Sprinters.

The 319s are apparently going to be based at the Allerton depot which only recently re-opened and only currently deals with 156s.

Interesting points that I didn't know. Makes sense.

Have heard Allerton requires some mods before it takes EMU stock.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Have heard Allerton requires some mods before it takes EMU stock.

It's got wires, but I guess it will need toilet recycling facilities as the 319s have retention toilets.

 

[northwichcat]

It's got wires,

I think the power was turned off after this incident:
http://www.globalrailnews.com/2012/...ter-teen-was-electrocuted-at-abandoned-depot/

 

[hwl]

The ITT required TSGN winner to hold on to any stock released from cascade for up to four weeks.

The final 387/1 is due in May (if the timescales are achieved) so by July 2015 there will be around 32-35x 319s for Northern to use.

The arrival of the 8x 377/7s releases 6x 377/2 to FCC who in turn releases 3x 319 (latest info is not at once either) with the remaining 3x 319s used to cover for the C4 exams on the rest to the 319 fleet that required.

The first 170s are due to be required by Chiltern in "summer 2015'.

Of course from early 2016 the 319s will start to be released on a regular basis when the 700's start coming into service.

Interesting points that I didn't know. Makes sense.

Have heard Allerton requires some mods before it takes EMU stock.

That means there should be more than enough 319s for Northern to sub lease a couple to TPE to add to the 350s (i.e. for the extra for Friday loadings) thus releasing a few 185s and allowing more flexibility in maintenance timing which might cover the loss of the initial 170s?

 

[Class377/5]

That means there should be more than enough 319s for Northern to sub lease a couple to TPE to add to the 350s (i.e. for the extra for Friday loadings) thus releasing a few 185s and allowing more flexibility in maintenance timing which might cover the loss of the initial 170s?

That might help at the weekends but not sure it can release enough to cover for 9 units.

 

[northwichcat]

That means there should be more than enough 319s for Northern to sub lease a couple to TPE to add to the 350s (i.e. for the extra for Friday loadings) thus releasing a few 185s and allowing more flexibility in maintenance timing which might cover the loss of the initial 170s?

319s with 3+2 seating on a 3.5 hour regional express service where there isn't a faster alternative for end-to-end travel!

 

[47802]

If Liverpool - Manchester Airport, Liverpool - Man Vic, and Liverpool - Wigan went electric doesn't that allow at least 11 DMU sets to be cascaded, I don't whether any of those services are worked in pairs.

Maybe 6 to TPE and 5 to Northern and you would have to make do.

 

[hwl]

319s with 3+2 seating on a 3.5 hour regional express service where there isn't a faster alternative for end-to-end travel!

Better than nothing. As there won't be any attempt at refurb during the current franchises the simple solution of unbolting the 3rd seat should help. Different 319 sub-classes have different seating and luggage layouts so there might be a option there. Using the 319 to provide cover for the 350s instead of the 185 might help?

On the doubled up 170 diagrams are there any quieter ones that might be covered by a single 185?

Might get 3 185s freed up but how many 170s would that cover for 3 or 4/5?

 

[northwichcat]

On the doubled up 170 diagrams are there any quieter ones that might be covered by a single 185?

Presumably TPE have allocated the 4 car 170 diagrams to the busiest South TPE diagrams and what they expect to be the busiest Hull-Manchester diagrams. With the service pattern changing on North TPE it's difficult to say how many passengers there will be on some services post-May. South TPE does definitely have some services which are currently 3 car 185s where there is an inadequate number of seats so as there will be no increase in frequency on South TPE the 4 car diagrams are definitely needed.

Better than nothing.

Is it though? 319s will need to get clearance for Wigan-Scotland, the crews who sign that service will need to learn 319s, 319s may not be able to run to the Desiro timings etc.

 

[talltim]

I am not sure if this has been mentioned in the thread but would the 10 Class 350/4 units that are for FTPE more than the number of Class 170 units that will be taken away from them ? Is so, they will have a net gain of one unit.

I am, as usual, waiting for postings to expose my lack of understanding of the situation.

My understanding, although please correct me if I'm wrong, was that the Scotland services were added to (transferred from XC?) the TPE franchise without allowing any extra stock to operate them. Presumably at the time TPE had a slight surplus of stock, because they managed to run the extra services with their existing fleet, but were a bit stretched. The 350s have some belatedly taken TPE back to where they were, but in the meantime passenger loadings have increased, so they now need all the 185/170s for run the full planned services.

 

[northwichcat]

Presumably at the time TPE had a slight surplus of stock, because they managed to run the extra services with their existing fleet, but were a bit stretched.

No they most certainly didn't! They had to divert the existing Manchester Airport to Windermere services to Scotland and introduce a Windermere-Oxenholme shuttle. This left a serious shortage of capacity between Manchester and Preston which is why a year later Northern started running extra Manchester-Preston services which involved them taking on the only available stock - class 180s (it would have been the LO 150s had they been released on time.) The change also resulted in some North and South TPE services getting less carriages:
a 3 car 185 instead of a 6 car 185 or 4 car 170
or:
a 2 car 170 instead of a 3 car 185 or 4 car 170
with serious overcrowding on those services.

 

[transmanche]

You cannot really assume the LO 172s will be available in 2017 yet, there is no date set for the relevant electrification.

Hence the "if"...

 

[northwichcat]

According to Burnley Borough Council chief executive Steve Rumbelow the carriages needed for Blackburn to Manchester via Burnley have been confirmed as being available from December 2014 and won't be affected by the fact Chiltern have taken on the TPE 170s and Northern are expected to provide trains to meet the short fall.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

According to Burnley Borough Council chief executive Steve Rumbelow the carriages needed for Blackburn to Manchester via Burnley have been confirmed as being available from December 2014 and won't be affected by the fact Chiltern have taken on the TPE 170s and Northern are expected to provide trains to meet the short fall.

Is it "written in stone" that only Northern Rail are the TOC that will be required to meet the said stock shortfall ?

 

[northwichcat]

Just thinking about an alternative idea.

This morning Stephen Hammond said talks for TPE to keep some of the 170/3s until May 2016 are underway. In May 2016 Northern will be able to release DMUs off Liverpool-Blackpool but the 185s on Manchester Airport-Blackpool won't be released until December 2016.

Also with the idea of Northern cascading a few 158s to TPE, other than a shortage of DMUs for Northern the other issue is no 158s would be freed up by electrification.

If Northern have to give up stock and TPE are able to keep some of the 170/3s but not all of them, what about Northern instead cascading a few 156s to Anglia and Anglia releasing a few 170s to TPE which would allow better fleet consistency?

 

[YorkshireBear]

I suggest reading RailTalk in Aprils modern railways as it raises some very interesting questions and gives some statements from Northern Rails managers.

 

[Starmill]

I suggest reading RailTalk in Aprils modern railways as it raises some very interesting questions and gives some statements from Northern Rails managers.

UPROAR IN THE NORTH

Yes it's a definitely worth read. I particularly like the sentiment in the last 3 paragraphs; ministers and the DfT, what will you do if these self same 'market forces' were to send the 51 185s to the new ScotRail franchise? 9 trains could just be the beginning...

 

[Old Hill Bank]

Well we all complained about the DfT Micro-managing rolling stock, now they take a back seat and it all goes belly up!