Expected changes to Northern & TPE with stock changes

[northwichcat]

With the proposal to take away the TPE 170s earlier than envisaged I'm trying to work out what stock will be freed up and which new services have been committed to needing extra stock.

By my reckoning:

December 2014 -
* Manchester Airport to Liverpool services go over to EMUs
* Extra DMUs required to extend hourly Victoria-Todmorden service to Blackburn via Burnley

2015 -
* Other Chat Moss services go over to EMUs

May 2016 -
* Liverpool to Blackpool service could go over to EMU

December 2016 -
* Manchester Airport to Blackpool service could go over to EMU
* Hazel Grove to Preston service could go over to EMU
* Manchester Victoria to Blackpool service could go over to EMU
* Victoria-Huddersfield stopper withdrawn
* 2 x Northern services extended from Victoria to Manchester Airport via new Ordsall Chord
* TPE Airport services routed via Ordsall Chord
* New Piccadilly-Selby semi-fast service, with Piccadilly-Hull service also seeing extra stops to compensate for withdrawal of Victoria-Huddersfield stopper.
* Other North TPE changes may or may not go ahead at this stage, as could running electric services between Manchester and Lancaster in lieu of diesel services to Barrow/Windermere.
* Chat Moss services can once again run through to Stalybridge (as electric services.)

Also before suggesting all the DMUs freed up could more than compensate for taking away the TPE 170s note that there are many services in the Northern and TPE area which desperately need extra capacity and they aren't all on routes set to be electrified.

 

[gordonthemoron]

but aren't Northern units in much worse condition than TPE's 170s?

 

[northwichcat]

but aren't Northern units in much worse condition than TPE's 170s?

Yes. Also TPE units all have First Class and have more luggage space than Northern provide, even though it isn't enough on some services.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

December 2016

* Victoria-Huddersfield stopper withdrawn

Do I take it that this is the result of a lack of a demand for such a service that has been shown in a year-on-year dramatic drop in passenger loadings for such a service ?

Will a new limited-stop bus route cater for the residual demand or will the existing all-stops 184 bus be the only option ?

 

[northwichcat]

Do I take it that this is the result of a lack of a demand for such a service that has been shown in a year-on-year dramatic drop in passenger loadings for such a service ?

Will a new limited-stop bus route cater for the residual demand or will the existing all-stops 184 bus be the only option ?

No. The stations between Stalybridge and Huddersfield will be served by semi-fast services running between Manchester Piccadilly and Selby/Hull, they are getting their platforms lengthening to take trains up to 96m in length. Network Rail say that once TPE electrification is complete a path could be made available for a Piccadilly-Huddersfield stopper but there won't be one between the Ordsall Chord opening and TPE electrification.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Do I take it that this is the result of a lack of a demand for such a service that has been shown in a year-on-year dramatic drop in passenger loadings for such a service ?

Will a new limited-stop bus route cater for the residual demand or will the existing all-stops 184 bus be the only option ?

The two semi fast TPE services. (out of the total of 6 Leeds-Manc TPE services) will call at two each of the intermediate stations. Alternate ones. Consultation has taken place and the locals are happy as long as they maintain links to the local main centres. Some are very happy they will now have a direct service to Leeds!

 

[Beveridges]

More importantly, how soon will it be when the first Pacers are scrapped ?

People mention 2020 but that is the total withdrawal of the class. Surely there is going to be a gradual rundown of the Pacer fleet that has to start fairly soon.

 

[IanXC]

More importantly, how soon will it be when the first Pacers are scrapped ?

People mention 2020 but that is the total withdrawal of the class. Surely there is going to be a gradual rundown of the Pacer fleet that has to start fairly soon.

If there is to be a gradual run down, I think we can be fairly certain it won't start with Northern in any of the years you mention!

 

[Manchester77]

More importantly, how soon will it be when the first Pacers are scrapped ?

People mention 2020 but that is the total withdrawal of the class. Surely there is going to be a gradual rundown of the Pacer fleet that has to start fairly soon.

Based on the fact life extension plans have been published for 143/4s I doubt there'll be heading off and with electrification it's likely the 142s can be withdrawn and replaced by existing diesels

 

[ed1971]

Do I take it that this is the result of a lack of a demand for such a service that has been shown in a year-on-year dramatic drop in passenger loadings for such a service ?

You clearly have not been on these services on a Saturday in recent years! It is bedlam due to the 'Ale Trail'.

 

[158722]

More importantly, how soon will it be when the first Pacers are scrapped ?

People mention 2020 but that is the total withdrawal of the class. Surely there is going to be a gradual rundown of the Pacer fleet that has to start fairly soon.

Read the first post of the electrification and cascades thread - rundown of possible Pacer retirements included there. Not before Dec 2016 I think.

 

[Beveridges]

Dec 2014 North West Liverpool-Manchester/Wigan - 12 to 16x 142/150/156 displaced;
• 10 Newton Heath 142 for Scrap.

The rundown starts at the end of this year then if this is to be believed. Then no more further scrappings until Dec 2016 when the Blackpool line gets overhead wires.

I think we have currently got about 35x 142's allocated to Newton Heath so that would still be over a quarter of the fleet for scrap by the end of this year.

 

[Geeves]

Not a chance in hell any 142s will be going for scrap any time soon. They are simply making an absolute shed load of cash for the ROSCOS!

Ill wager 2021 you might see them heading for the great depot in the sky, of course a year later than what people are saying now

saying that if you an your depot chums keep it up they might have all have set on fire by then, too much tape holding everything together... Oh an zip ties.

 

[Beveridges]

Ill wager 2021 you might see them heading for the great depot in the sky, of course a year later than what people are saying now

2020 is often the date mentioned for total withdrawal. There is going to have to be a gradual rundown that will start well before then. The improvements are going to be ongoing between 2014 to 2020.

saying that if you an your depot chums keep it up they might have all have set on fire by then

If Newton Heath wasn't such a damn good depot the 142 fleet would have been gone years ago... It takes a PROPER depot to keep these heaps of crap running reliably for over three decades.

 

[Haydn1971]

TPE losing 9 trains made the local news tonight (Look North Yorkshire), apparently the 170's are going to Chiltern - does this coincidently tie into the franchise renewal timeframe ?

 

[Manchester77]

TPE losing 9 trains made the local news tonight (Look North Yorkshire), apparently the 170's are going to Chiltern - does this coincidently tie into the franchise renewal timeframe ?

yes on north west tonight they ran an article and interviewed the head of TPE who said that the ROSCOs wouldn't lease the 170s for an extra 10 months (covering the length of the direct award) and so in the competitive market Chiltern were seen as a more viable option

 

[PHILIPE]

I have read other news on this topic and it has been implied that the Government has favoured the South East above the North once again. But, apparently, the DFT is being blamed for gross inefficiency, once again.

 

[Rich McLean]

I would hazard to guess from this outcome, the proposed extra 5th TPE North service will be s**t canned

 

[WatcherZero]

I think they will keep the 5th but have to reduce the amount of extra capacity they cant put on South Tpe/Scotland strengthenings. They must be hoping the couple of years leaseback gives them time to find more, possibly spare Scottish diesels if the new franchise operator orders replacement stock straightaway?


This has really screwed TPE over.

 

[158722]

The rundown starts at the end of this year then if this is to be believed. Then no more further scrappings until Dec 2016 when the Blackpool line gets overhead wires.

I think we have currently got about 35x 142's allocated to Newton Heath so that would still be over a quarter of the fleet for scrap by the end of this year.

Indeed, when I compiled these notes, I did state that the exercise was to see what could be displaced, rather than what will. I would agree that the potential 10 units won't get withdrawn this year, instead they will be very welcome on other services, such as the Todmorden curve ones and extra seats elsewhere. Only by Dec 2016 should we have enough wires up and cascaded EMUs around the NW to have any hope of Pacers being retired - and even then, who knows, if demand keeps on going up...

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

yes on north west tonight they ran an article and interviewed the head of TPE who said that the ROSCOs wouldn't lease the 170s for an extra 10 months (covering the length of the direct award) and so in the competitive market Chiltern were seen as a more viable option

Well apart from confirming the "rumour", this also suggests that it is nothing to do with the DfT.
TPE didn't come up with the cash by the sound of it.
At the same time, TPE and DfT get the benefit of lower costs/higher premiums.

 

[Manchester77]

I thought it sounded more like the ROSCO chose Chiltern because their business case was stronger since it was more long term?

 

[Class 170101]

I think they will keep the 5th but have to reduce the amount of extra capacity they cant put on South Tpe/Scotland strengthenings. They must be hoping the couple of years leaseback gives them time to find more, possibly spare Scottish diesels if the new franchise operator orders replacement stock straightaway?


This has really screwed TPE over.

The stupid thing is the Gospel Oak to Barking Electrification should see Class 172s, exactly the same as the Chiltern Fleet available in around two years time if various websites are right and that electrification of the route is completed in December 2016.

Chiltern isn't exactly short of capacity from what I have seen either so not quite sure why it needs the 170s now.

 

[WatcherZero]

Well apart from confirming the "rumour", this also suggests that it is nothing to do with the DfT.
TPE didn't come up with the cash by the sound of it.
At the same time, TPE and DfT get the benefit of lower costs/higher premiums.

The opposite, from what TPE has now said they had the cash (even the suggestion it was offering more) but they could only offer a deal until the end of their direct award in 2016 with no certainty they would be required beyond that date, Chiltern on the other hand could offer a lease agreement until 2021. So its the Dfts franchising policy and the lack of clarity it offered that was to blame.

The Rosco chose 7 year lease agreement over a higher earning 2 year lease, the two year leaseback indicates TPE is still going to be paying more than Chiltern were offering.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The opposite, TPE had the cash (even the suggestion it was offering more) but they could only offer a deal until the end of their direct award in 2016 with no certainty they would be required beyond that date, Chiltern on the other hand could offer a lease agreement until 2021. So its the Dfts franchising policy and the lack of clarity it offered that was to blame.

Seems to be the law of unintended consequences.
There must be other fleets at risk of being poached too.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I think they will keep the 5th but have to reduce the amount of extra capacity they cant put on South Tpe/Scotland strengthenings.

Was it not the Hull service from Manchester that saw most of the Class 170 FTPE fleet usually employed upon ?

 

[IanXC]

Was it not the Hull service from Manchester that saw most of the Class 170 FTPE fleet usually employed upon ?

That's true, but the displaced units from the 350 deliveries were due to be used to provide thee 5th service, as well as strengthening others. Principally it was proposed that 170s would operate almost exclusively in pairs, and various other services around the franchise would be double formed. Which would have begun to address the chronic overcrowding.

For TP passenegers its a case of so near and yet so far...

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

That's true, but the displaced units from the 350 deliveries were due to be used to provide thee 5th service, as well as strengthening others. Principally it was proposed that 170s would operate almost exclusively in pairs, and various other services around the franchise would be double formed. Which would have begun to address the chronic overcrowding.

For TP passenegers its a case of so near and yet so far...

If the 5th service does not proceed, does this then mean the Newcastle to Manchester Airport service will see a reprieve, as this was the one that was intended to run the Newcastle to Liverpool Lime Street new service. ?

 

[theblackwatch]

That's true, but the displaced units from the 350 deliveries were due to be used to provide thee 5th service, as well as strengthening others. Principally it was proposed that 170s would operate almost exclusively in pairs, and various other services around the franchise would be double formed. Which would have begun to address the chronic overcrowding.

For TP passenegers its a case of so near and yet so far...

Indeed. The statement below comes from https://www.tpexpress.co.uk/about-us/new-trains/new-train-faqs/

What happens to the existing fleet?
FTPE currently has a fleet of 51 class 185s and 9 class 170s. All of these trains will be retained by the FTPE franchise meaning that extra capacity and longer trains will be available from the end of 2013 on all FTPE routes. From May 2014, FTPE will be introducing a new direct hourly service from Liverpool - Newcastle which will increase the number of trains between Manchester - Leeds up to 5 trains per hour. Other displaced class 185s will be used to provide additional capacity on our existing services; capacity on the North Route will increase by 30% and on the South route by 20%.

Clearly, these extra capacity figures are now totally incorrect.

 

[transmanche]

The stupid thing is the Gospel Oak to Barking Electrification should see Class 172s, exactly the same as the Chiltern Fleet available in around two years time if various websites are right and that electrification of the route is completed in December 2016.

Chiltern isn't exactly short of capacity from what I have seen either so not quite sure why it needs the 170s now.

Maybe if the LO 172s become available to Chiltern when the Gospel-Oak-Barking line is electrified, they will be able to continue sub-leasing the 170s to TPE.

This would give Chiltern the added security of knowing they have first dibs on the 170s for future growth, whilst by then we might know the firm plans for new stock to be used on the TPE electric services through the TP 'core'.