northern electrification and Crewe-Chester

[transmanche]

The intermediate argument doesn't stack up either. Its a 70,000 per annum market less than Heart of Wales and south of Shrewsbury there has always been other direct trains to Cardiff.

The figures you posted stated 70,019 passengers travelling between North Wales and South Wales. That's only a small proportion of the intermediate journey opportunities; it seems you're ignoring the rest to present your case in a better light.

What about Shrewsbury-Bangor, Gobowen-Hereford, Ludlow-Chester - and all the other intermediate journeys that can currently be made direct which may require one or two changes if the Cardiff-Holyhead service is replaced by a Cardiff-Liverpool service. What overall benefit would such a change being?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The figures you posted stated 70,019 passengers travelling between North Wales and South Wales. That's only a small proportion of the intermediate journey opportunities; it seems you're ignoring the rest to present your case in a better light.

What about Shrewsbury-Bangor, Gobowen-Hereford, Ludlow-Chester - and all the other intermediate journeys that can currently be made direct which may require one or two changes if the Cardiff-Holyhead service is replaced by a Cardiff-Liverpool service. What overall benefit would such a change being?

Those sorts of journeys were not possible by direct train before 2003 (well maybe one), and the world did not end.
Direct North-South links are valuable, even necessary, but not at the rate of 10 a day, to the exclusion of all else.
Liverpool used to have several W&W services a day, roughly every 3rd Marches service (with the other 2 going to Manchester).
It's quite a reasonable wish to have them back.
On top of which Wrexham/North Wales Coast/Chester-Liverpool is one of ATW's main markets, as any arrival from the west at Chester will demonstrate.

 

[transmanche]

Liverpool used to have several W&W services a day, roughly every 3rd Marches service (with the other 2 going to Manchester). It's quite a reasonable wish to have them back.

But, to use your own words, the world did not end...

 

[Eagle]

Any argument based on "the timetable used to be like this ten years ago" isn't a very strong one. Why are we using long past service patterns to inform decisions on the present railway?

 

[Gareth]

But it does demonstrate the fallacy of basing service patterns on the number of people travelling end-to-end on any service.

Just because very few people would travel from Cardiff to Holyhead end-to-end does not mean that the service as a whole is superfluous - as it's extremely useful for those making intermediate journeys without needing to change

And just because a handful more people might travel from Cardiff to Liverpool end-to-end does not mean that removing Cardiff-Holyhead services in favour of Cardiff-Liverpool will provide an overall benefit for the majority of passengers

I remind you again; any argument that a specific service shouldn't exist simply because no-one travels end-to-end is without foundation.

I'd be surprised if the difference is a handful. You're point about not just considering end-to-end journeys is a relevant one but a Cardiff-Liverpool journey and Cardiff-Holyhead journey are going to be identical up to Chester. After that, you're comparing the Liverpool metropolitan area with the North Wales coast. The former is a much larger area population-wise and in terms of economic activity. That's all I'm saying. I don't see how one can place emphasis on the latter whilst being dismissive of the former, unless one thinks the Wales-England border has such a large effect on social and economic patterns that access to Flint, Rhyl, Holyhead etc is far more important to Taffs than to Runcorn, Liverpool or indeed anywhere beyond the line.

And a disclaimer before I get jumped on by someone who lives in Cardiff and regularly visits their girlfriend in Conwy: I'm not actually arguing that direct services shouldn't exist, provided there's genuine demand to support the service. Same with Liverpool, mind, but I'd be very surprised if there's demand for North West Wales from Cardiff but not Liverpool.

 

[transmanche]

You're point about not just considering end-to-end journeys is a relevant one but a Cardiff-Liverpool journey and Cardiff-Holyhead journey are going to be identical up to Chester.

The proposition was diverting the Cardiff-Holyeahd via Crewe to Liverpool. I took that to mean running from Shrewsbury to Crewe direct via Whitchurch and not via Chester. (If you're going to route the service via Chester wouldn't it make more sense to use the Halton Curve to reach Liverpool rather than go via Crewe?)

 

[Gareth Marston]

The figures you posted stated 70,019 passengers travelling between North Wales and South Wales. That's only a small proportion of the intermediate journey opportunities; it seems you're ignoring the rest to present your case in a better light.

What about Shrewsbury-Bangor, Gobowen-Hereford, Ludlow-Chester - and all the other intermediate journeys that can currently be made direct which may require one or two changes if the Cardiff-Holyhead service is replaced by a Cardiff-Liverpool service. What overall benefit would such a change being?

Look at the footfall figures for Ludlow and Gobowen even "if" say 10% of their traffic was doing these intermediate journeys the overall numbers would be low. The ticket offices at both stations would have a good laugh at the notion that north Wales (except maybe gobowen to wrexham) was in anyway a significant market.

 

[transmanche]

Look at the footfall figures for Ludlow and Gobowen even "if" say 10% of their traffic was doing these intermediate journeys the overall numbers would be low. The ticket offices at both stations would have a good laugh at the notion that north Wales (except maybe gobowen to wrexham) was in anyway a significant market.

And similarly is Gobowen or Ludlow to Liverpool a significant market?

Any figure you care to supply is mere supposition. As is any assertion that replacing the service with a Cardiff-Liverpool one would provide an overall benefit.

 

[Gareth Marston]

And similarly is Gobowen or Ludlow to Liverpool a significant market?

Any figure you care to supply is mere supposition. As is any assertion that replacing the service with a Cardiff-Liverpool one would provide an overall benefit.

Who said I was proposing a Liverpool service instead? I am merely pointing out that the official statistics for travel between the unitary authorities in north Wales and South Wales is small, its not non existent but certainly its not the busy market some posters think. The notion that theres a busy Marches to North Wales market served by the Cardiff to Holyhead trains is not born out by any observations I've made in over a decade of travel down the Marches to Cardiff.

The relevance to the OP is that there is no evidence of a huge market of north to South Wales travel justifying keeping the current 8 trains a day let alone increasing to hourly in frequency therefore they can be thinned out of the tt so as not to jeopardise electrification west of Chester.

 

[merlodlliw]

Then it goes to show that you do not travel the route very often, there are many passengers who travel from Cardiff to Holyhead TDK

I agree some do,but only one or two, usually statutory sector people on the 2 early trains travelling the entire route

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

What is often forgotten is that the only net addition to ATW services in the last decade is a 2-hourly train from Chester to Cardiff (plus Gerald of course).
The coast legs were always there but previously went to Crewe (now a shuttle from Chester).
This gave an hourly Chester-Shrewsbury and a 2-hourly extra on the Marches.
In some ways capacity in the north has actually decreased, because 3-car 175s on Holyhead to Crewe went to Manchester-Cardiff, replaced by 2-car 158s Holyhead to Birmingham.

 

[TDK]

The ticket offices at both stations would have a good laugh at the notion that north Wales (except maybe gobowen to wrexham) was in anyway a significant market.

You cannot judge the frequency of travellers by what is taken from a ticket office. Why run a train direct to Liverpool when you have Merseyrail at Chester? The WAG has the major say in the running of ATW and they will not be interested in scuppering the Cardiff - Holyhead or the Birmingham - Holyhead for a direct service to Liverpool. You are talking direct routes here and Birmingham already have a very good service to Liverpool direct and how many passengers will sooner get on the ATW service that will take a lot longer to get there? Sorry Gareth your argument does not add up on this one.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I agree some do,but only one or two, usually statutory sector people on the 2 early trains travelling the entire route

If that is the case then, cut the Cardiff Holyhead service completely and run it up the Marches to Liverpool then the line will not need doubling from Wrexham to Saltney? The service in Wales including North Wales is hell of a lot better that it ever was by suggesting the Cardiff Holyhead service does not have the passenger base for it to be viable is poppycock. ATW would love to run trains from Birmingham to Liverpool just for the ticket cut alone but there is the problem of the ORR of course. As for a direct train from Cardiff to Liverpool what would and who would that benefit?

 

[transmanche]

Who said I was proposing a Liverpool service instead?

I didn't say you did. I said anthony263 did. That's what I was responding to.

I am merely pointing out that the official statistics for travel between the unitary authorities in north Wales and South Wales is small

Which has no relevance to the point at hand.

The notion that theres a busy Marches to North Wales market served by the Cardiff to Holyhead trains is not born out by any observations I've made in over a decade of travel down the Marches to Cardiff.

FWIW my own observations show quite a few passengers travelling through Chester. It just goes to show that personal observations tend to reinforce our pre-existing opinions.

 

[kieron]

The relevance to the OP is that there is no evidence of a huge market of north to South Wales travel justifying keeping the current 8 trains a day let alone increasing to hourly in frequency therefore they can be thinned out of the tt so as not to jeopardise electrification west of Chester.

Is there any reason to believe it would? ATW have 5tph leaving Chester during the day, so rearranging these to take advantage of any extra trains they receive wouldn't cause major disruption. It's not one of those situations where a line has to be kept as diesel for the sake of the last few miles.

The current service pattern doesn't work that badly, even though it means someone going from Cardiff to Liverpool has to change trains in Crewe. Altering the service pattern without benefit to passengers is something I'm a bit wary of.

 

[Gareth Marston]

For the last time it is not me who is suggesting diverting Cardiff to Holyhead trains to Liverpool please read the previous posts.

I used the very early Holyhead to Cardiff today 0718 off Shrewsbury which i have done regularly for the last 12 years. 2 people off Cambrian got on it, no more than 20 people on it from north of Shrewsbury. Heaving busy between Leominster and Hereford though.

I spoke with conductor i know on way back who worked the non stop Gerald 2 DMU between Shrewsbury and Cardiff today barely 20 on that too, he says Cardiff bound Gerald itself has picked up trade by stopping at Hereford now and the northbound is busier due to re timing but gain thins out beyond Hereford.

The North to south Wales market is very much one of peaks and troughs which i suspect is why some posters observe next to no one and others think its busy.
No one will wire the North Wales Coast when most of the trains west of Llandudno Junction will be long distance DMU's, people can talk this heart of wales size service up as much as they like but when you have an hourly Cardiff to Holyhead service and two hourly Birmingham to Holyhead train west of Chester theres no way you can make the case for wires on the coast.

 

[transmanche]

For the last time it is not me who is suggesting diverting Cardiff to Holyhead trains to Liverpool please read the previous posts.

But that was the specific topic under discussion, which you responded to...

 

[Gareth Marston]

But that was the specific topic under discussion, which you responded to...

Down here on the Cambrian we've had a survey regarding the demand for extra services and people have spoken proving to others elsewhere that there perceptions of what people in mid Wales want we're perhaps not reflective of the actualites.

Perhaps we should let the people of North Wales and the Marches speak and do a comprehensive survey on where they want their rail services to go? OK no doubt we will get demands for more services than we have paths for but we will at least be able to prioritise based on actual demand. Currently we have the Welsh government planning an hourly Cardiff to Holyhead possibly a refurbished HST service, a prominent local MP campaigning for direct trains to Liverpool via the Halton curve and the Secretary of State for Wales wanting the north Wales coast line electrified, Wrexham has its own agenda and no buggar has asked the poor sods in Church Stretton or Craven Arms. Gobowen and north west Shropshire also feel disenfranchised.

Lets give them the options to choose 3 priorities from Liverpool, Manchester, Stoke on Trent/ East Midlands, Crewe/ London, Wrexham, Cardiff, reopen ing the closed stations between Rhyl and Chester and Birmingham.

Personally I have a soft spot for the old north and west expresses being restored but realise there is a market for Cardiff to North Wales for a limited number of trips a day.

 

[snowball]

Perhaps we should let the people of North Wales and the Marches speak and do a comprehensive survey on where they want their rail services to go? OK no doubt we will get demands for more services than we have paths for but we will at least be able to prioritise based on actual demand.

Of course, what people say they want, and what they actually use when it's available, maybe two different things.

 

[transmanche]

Gobowen and north west Shropshire also feel disenfranchised.

Well my Mum (who uses Gobowen station) is very happy with the current service pattern, as it enables her to visit family in Bangor and Cardiff without changing. She was sad to lose the direct WSMR service to London; but is happy with changing at Chester onto the regular Virgin service, or (when no cheaper advances are available) travelling to Birmingham and changing onto a Chiltern service. Her only gripe is the poor connections at Chester to/from Manchester trains.

She tells me that her friends at the U3A in Oswestry are also happy with the current service pattern; common comments being wanting all trains to be longer (i.e. 3-carriages) and they don't always manage to get a cup of tea off the trolley (I don't know how many services have a trolley on board).

 

[Gareth Marston]

Well my Mum (who uses Gobowen station) is very happy with the current service pattern, as it enables her to visit family in Bangor and Cardiff without changing. She was sad to lose the direct WSMR service to London; but is happy with changing at Chester onto the regular Virgin service, or (when no cheaper advances are available) travelling to Birmingham and changing onto a Chiltern service. Her only gripe is the poor connections at Chester to/from Manchester trains.

She tells me that her friends at the U3A in Oswestry are also happy with the current service pattern; common comments being wanting all trains to be longer (i.e. 3-carriages) and they don't always manage to get a cup of tea off the trolley (I don't know how many services have a trolley on board).

They'll be filing in the forms then?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Of course, what people say they want, and what they actually use when it's available, maybe two different things.

Is that why no one acts when 70% of people say they want the railways renationalised as people assume they then won't travel by rail if it happens?

 

[transmanche]

They'll be filing in the forms then?

I'm sure she would if she knew what forms you were referring to.

But it does demonstrate that not everyone shares your view of the Cardiff-Holyhead service.

Is that why no one acts when 70% of people say they want the railways renationalised as people assume they then won't travel by rail if it happens?

No that's because of political dogma.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I'm sure she would if she knew what forms you were referring to.

But it does demonstrate that not everyone shares your view of the Cardiff-Holyhead service.

No ones ever denied there aren't some people who find it useful its just that the official figures show them to be such a small percentage of the overall market. A properly conducted and resourced survey will knock this one on the head you can't physically have through trains from north Wales coast to everywhere desirable and make the case for wiring it, something will have to give. So lets see what people really want rather than a small group of rail enthusiasts endlessly argue about it on RF.

 

[merlodlliw]

If that is the case then, cut the Cardiff Holyhead service completely and run it up the Marches to Liverpool then the line will not need doubling from Wrexham to Saltney? The service in Wales including North Wales is hell of a lot better that it ever was by suggesting the Cardiff Holyhead service does not have the passenger base for it to be viable is poppycock. ATW would love to run trains from Birmingham to Liverpool just for the ticket cut alone but there is the problem of the ORR of course. As for a direct train from Cardiff to Liverpool what would and who would that benefit?

The current thinking in Cardiff Bay is,well the Minister said it," Wrexham will be able to enjoy an hourly speeded up service between Cardiff & Holyhead" what the Minister does not say is,will the the HSts will be like Gerald semi fast,so intermediate stops wont happen,this will effect passengers in the Marches & North Wales. We have asked will this hourly service effect local services to Birmingham and Shrewsbury, so far no comment.

 

[anthony263]

A 2 hourly Cardiff - Holyhead service as it was before Gerald came along is perfrect for that market so northbound trrains from Cardiff should be like:

To Holyhead : 0510,0720,0920,1120,1320,1520,1720,1920.
To Liverpool : 06:20,0820,1020,1220,1420,1620,1820.

Then you would have services to Manchester departing Cardiff at 50 minutes past each hour.

 

[transmanche]

No ones ever denied there aren't some people who find it useful its just that the official figures show them to be such a small percentage of the overall market.

Well if such figures exist in the public domain, I haven't seen them posted here. All I have seen you quote is selective figures for through travel between north and south wales - which is merely a fraction of the full picture.

 

[HowardGWR]

I'm sure she would if she knew what forms you were referring to.

But it does demonstrate that not everyone shares your view of the Cardiff-Holyhead service.

No ones ever denied there aren't some people who find it useful its just that the official figures show them to be such a small percentage of the overall market. A properly conducted and resourced survey will knock this one on the head you can't physically have through trains from north Wales coast to everywhere desirable and make the case for wiring it, something will have to give. So lets see what people really want rather than a small group of rail enthusiasts endlessly argue about it on RF.

What's RF? Do you mean UKRF?

 

[transmanche]

What's RF? Do you mean UKRF?

NB: It was Gareth Marston who wrote the bit you quoted, not me.

 

[OxtedL]

NB: It was Gareth Marston who wrote the bit you quoted, not me.

This is an annoying and quite regular problem...

All it takes to solve is people glancing at their posts immediately after posting, and if necessary hitting the 'edit' button and chucking in a [/QUOTE] at the end of the offending quotation.

By the time four or five people have quoted and failed to correct a broken quote it gets quite hard to follow who said what.

 

[HSTEd]

Hate to be pedantic (that seems to be all I do around here ) but surely it would be RUKF

 

[Gareth Marston]

Well if such figures exist in the public domain, I haven't seen them posted here. All I have seen you quote is selective figures for through travel between north and south wales - which is merely a fraction of the full picture.

I can only use what is available my post 89 came from Welsh Government and ORR sources they choose to break down the figures as intra Wales between Unitary Authorities and outside Wales not me. The ORR has said it will provide breakdowns for English regions to be published at some point so we might get a clearer picture then. What is clear is that the official figures for travel between North Wales UA and South Wales UA's is 70,000 per annum 1.23% of the total rail use in North Wales. Are you saying this is wrong?
Are you saying that there is significant demand for travel between North Wales UA's and Gobowen, Shrewsbury, Church Stretton, Craven Arms, Ludlow, Leominster, Hereford? If so how many journeys? You don't know but are you saying more than N Wales to S Wales?

The 2007 Wales Rail Planning Assessment broke Wales to England down by region, 61% of North Wales cross border traffic went to the North West, 20% to London, 8% to West Midlands, 8% to E/NE England and 2% to SW England.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The current thinking in Cardiff Bay is,well the Minister said it," Wrexham will be able to enjoy an hourly speeded up service between Cardiff & Holyhead" what the Minister does not say is,will the the HSts will be like Gerald semi fast,so intermediate stops wont happen,this will effect passengers in the Marches & North Wales. We have asked will this hourly service effect local services to Birmingham and Shrewsbury, so far no comment.

This is unclear in these proposals.