Swansea to West Wales local services

[Rhydgaled]

September 2014.

Thanks, definately not May or December then. But no specific date?

It was never going to spit out large quantities of new Traveler's due to its deep rural location.

Agreed, but has it spat out at least the small number of new travelers that were expected? That, in my view, would be fair criteria: if passenger numbers were less than forecast that would be the only fair justification to pull the plug.

Perhaps a morning departure and an evening arrival will be retained and a working party set up to look at the potential for tourist trains.

A reduced service but not as much as back to boat trains? Don't know about that. Does the 06:53 from Fishguard get many passengers? If not, you could perhaps replace the two near-useless morning arrivals in Fishguard (the first, too early, which forms the 06:53, and the second which starts at Clarbeston Road with no connection from further east and forms the 08:04) with a single slightly more useful service from Carmarthen arriving into Fishguard at 7-something.

I think any future inward cascade of "better than 150's" might be a tad difficult with the pace of electrification releasing units elsewhere BUT a big catch up to replace 14x fleets , especially in the Northern area , as there is organic growth in other parts of the UK on regional operations which have a better (sorry) payback than rural Pembrokeshire.

It's not just rural Pembrokeshire. I did some looking at timetables a while back and, outside the ValleyLines network, I didn't find many diagrams on the ATW franchise for which a 150 would be suitable, If I remember correctly, I found a grand total of three diagrams where a 150 would be sutiable. The other places where 150s shouldn't be used, such as the HOWL, don't have much 'payback' either, but that's no reason not to try and specify a franchise that, at the very least, requires replacment of 150s with something more appropriate if/when that something becomes available.

Such as Cambrian mainline, easily the highest growth rural line in Wales. Strong rumour that the Fishguard money was pinched from that for Cambrian hourly anyway. I hate rob Peter to pay Paul but as there was no prioritised and costed rail development plan in Wales, unfortunately other factors intervened.

If Peter (Cambrian) really was robbed to pay Paul (Fishguard) then that was sorely wrong. They should have delivered the Cambrian trains instead (and made a committment to introduce Fishguards at a later date). However, was any money ever actually earmarked for the Cambrian service in order for it to be stolen?

 

[Gareth Marston]

It's not just rural Pembrokeshire. I did some looking at timetables a while back and, outside the ValleyLines network, I didn't find many diagrams on the ATW franchise for which a 150 would be suitable, If I remember correctly, I found a grand total of three diagrams where a 150 would be sutiable. The other places where 150s shouldn't be used, such as the HOWL, don't have much 'payback' either, but that's no reason not to try and specify a franchise that, at the very least, requires replacment of 150s with something more appropriate if/when that something becomes available.



150's in fleet numbers are not going to be free to work West Wales or anywhere else hypothetically until the Valleys are wired and a suitable electric fleet brought in this could be 2020 or beyond and the humble 150 will well and truly be close to life expired by then. The UK electrification program will not provide a magic answer to rolling stok on non wired lines as the scale of the program is not large enough and the timeframe to long to avoid life expiration and growth issues elsewhere.

Stadler GTW would be ideal for West Wales locals, Heart of Wales, Cambrian Coast, locals on Cambrian mainline and Conwy valley. A 25 strong fleet would be sufficient, the Conwy Valley provides the logistic headache.

 

[Squaddie]

Stadler GTW would be ideal for West Wales locals, Heart of Wales, Cambrian Coast, locals on Cambrian mainline and Conwy valley. A 25 strong fleet would be sufficient, the Conwy Valley provides the logistic headache.

There is little chance of seeing such lovely, comfortable trains anywhere on the UK's rail network, especially on ATW.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

There is little chance of seeing such lovely, comfortable trains anywhere on the UK's rail network, especially on ATW.

Maybe if the prices came down .....euro versus pound ?

 

[Rhydgaled]

150's in fleet numbers are not going to be free to work West Wales or anywhere else hypothetically until the Valleys are wired and a suitable electric fleet brought in this could be 2020 or beyond and the humble 150 will well and truly be close to life expired by then.

What was the life-expectancy of class 143 units when built? Going by the 30-year rule, they will be life-expired by 2020 yet it is proposed to refurbish them for life beyond then. Retirement for 150s therefore looks doubtful.

The UK electrification program will not provide a magic answer to rolling stok on non wired lines

I agree, but in my opinion the solution should be bi-mode class 158/444-like units, to work routes like Cardiff-Portsmouth and Waterloo-Exeter, releasing 158s and 159s. Hopefully those released units, either directly or via class 156 cascades, would push 150s and Pacers off everything but all-stops services of under an hour, prefrably less. A straight-electric version of the 158/444-like bi-mode could be used for TPE once electrified (ditto north Wales coast if it gets wired).

Stadler GTW would be ideal for West Wales locals, Heart of Wales, Cambrian Coast, locals on Cambrian mainline and Conwy valley. A 25 strong fleet would be sufficient, the Conwy Valley provides the logistic headache.

From the (external) pictures on wikipedia they look a bit Pacer-ish to me, not good for Wales on that basis. I agree Conwy valley is a difficult one, espcially if the north Wales main line gets wires (if it doesn't, a stopper from Holyhead/Bangor to Llandudno could perhaps be used to position a unit, but you'd need ECS runs to/from Chester to cycle units between depots).

What frequencies are you looking at though? I'm not sure 25 is quite enough if you're including Cambrian as well (which I didn't, because unless you are going to have 4-car 158s Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth every hour with connections to the coast instead of through running then, rolling stock wise, it's hard to beat the current arrangments in my view, aside from needing more 158s).

 

[anthony263]

Stadler GTW would be ideal for West Wales locals, Heart of Wales, Cambrian Coast, locals on Cambrian mainline and Conwy valley. A 25 strong fleet would be sufficient, the Conwy Valley provides the logistic headache.

The Stadler GTW looks to be an impressive pice of kit although I do wonder if Stadler could build a modifed version to fit thd uk loading guage.

Stadler have however got a tram design which fits the London Tramlink so it might be possible. Certainly the views out of the windows look like they will be great I wonder if this might persuade the scots to look at these.

Perhaps we can then tag a order for additional units on the back of the order request from the scotish government/scotrail

 

[Gareth Marston]

The Stadler GTW looks to be an impressive pice of kit although I do wonder if Stadler could build a modifed version to fit thd uk loading guage.

Stadler have however got a tram design which fits the London Tramlink so it might be possible. Certainly the views out of the windows look like they will be great I wonder if this might persuade the scots to look at these.

Perhaps we can then tag a order for additional units on the back of the order request from the scotish government/scotrail

Working on the 35 year rule the 2020's are a big decade for rolling stock replacement for Wales and Borders.
142/143 = 2020 30 units
150 = 2021 36 units
153 = 2023 8 units
158 = 2027 24 units
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The Stadler GTW looks to be an impressive pice of kit although I do wonder if Stadler could build a modifed version to fit thd uk loading guage.

Stadler have however got a tram design which fits the London Tramlink so it might be possible. Certainly the views out of the windows look like they will be great I wonder if this might persuade the scots to look at these.

Perhaps we can then tag a order for additional units on the back of the order request from the scotish government/scotrail

There's a UK wide requirement for DMU island areas going forward you might squeeze cascades up until 2030 but if current growth rates continue there will be need for mor units sooner rather than later.
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What frequencies are you looking at though? I'm not sure 25 is quite enough if you're including Cambrian as well (which I didn't, because unless you are going to have 4-car 158s Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth every hour with connections to the coast instead of through running then, rolling stock wise, it's hard to beat the current arrangments in my view, aside from needing more 158s).[/QUOTE]

Runnin 90 mph units on the cambrian coast is a waste the through traffic in the winter weekdays going east of Mach is count on one hand. Happy with one or two strategic through trains off coast but most diagrams can be other stock self contained. Once Shrewsbury is wired there maybe a handful of through Cambrian trains to Birmingham that maybe split join at Mach with coast the rest of service can be run with different units.

Central Wales should be two hourly south of Llandovery with overnight stabling there.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Working on the 35 year rule the 2020's are a big decade for rolling stock replacement for Wales and Borders.
142/143 = 2020 30 units
150 = 2021 36 units
153 = 2023 8 units
158 = 2027 24 units

Yes, but 143s and 144s are supposedly considered by their owners to be worth refitting to meet the 2020 disability requirements. How many years leasing revenue will be needed to cover the cost of that refurbishment? If we guess at 10, and assume an equal life extension would be value-for-money for the other classes of unit (other than 142s, which the owner apparently has decided it won't be refurbishing), that puts it at:
142 = 2020
143 = 2030
150 = 2031
153 = 2033
158 = 2037

There's a UK wide requirement for DMU island areas going forward you might squeeze cascades up until 2030 but if current growth rates continue there will be need for mor units sooner rather than later.

Just replacing the 142s in 2020 might be a bit difficult if growth continues and ValleyLines wires aren't done until after 2020 (as now seems to be the case).

What frequencies are you looking at though? I'm not sure 25 is quite enough if you're including Cambrian as well (which I didn't, because unless you are going to have 4-car 158s Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth every hour with connections to the coast instead of through running then, rolling stock wise, it's hard to beat the current arrangments in my view, aside from needing more 158s).

Runnin 90 mph units on the cambrian coast is a waste the through traffic in the winter weekdays going east of Mach is count on one hand. Happy with one or two strategic through trains off coast but most diagrams can be other stock self contained. Once Shrewsbury is wired there maybe a handful of through Cambrian trains to Birmingham that maybe split join at Mach with coast the rest of service can be run with different units.

I agree that the Cambrian Coast all-stops service would ideally be a seperate service, with a different class of stock used, but:

1. It seems to help ensure Machynlleth-Shrewsbury is a 4-car 158 most of the time, which I believe is right for the route
2. 158s/159s are suitable for Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury, and something ideally suited for use on the Cambrian Coast wouldn't really be suitable for Aberyswyth-Shrewsbury
3. Due to item 2, the Cambrian coast units would be isolated just like Conwy Valley, unless Machynlleth depot can handle nearly all works with very long ECS moves required to get to Chester, Canton or Landore
4. If/when wires reach Shrewsbury, you would then (due to item 2) have two classes of unit trapped at Machynlleth depot, again with long (in this case under-wires) ECS runs to get to larger depots.

Central Wales should be two hourly south of Llandovery with overnight stabling there.

Personally I think it should be every two hours (or every three at the very least) all the way, with two units stabled overnight at Llandrindod (instead of Llandovery). If 2-hourly, you could merge it with the Crewe-Shrewsbury stopper*. I made a very wild guess that a 2-hourly Crewe-Swansea would be 5 diagrams, and Swansea-Carmarthen/Milford/Fishguard/Pembroke would be 8. That's 13 diagrams, plus Conwy Valley (taking it up to 14 or 15).

* although (on it's own) that, along with Wrexham-Bidston and Swansea-Carmarthen, is one of the 3 diagrams which a 150 would be suitable for.

 

[merlodlliw]

As far as I am aware TOCs can withdraw services like this any time they want, it doesn't have to be an official timetable change date.

ATW were paid to run the trial for three years,no doubt ATW will be informing the Minister of the finish date of the trial,no more money on the table,ATW will pull the plug, you are correct in my opinion.
Just like all Welsh Gov funding,three years is three years,this occurs all the time in the Voluntary Sector the funding is extended or stopped.

 

[Squaddie]

ATW were paid to run the trial for three years,no doubt ATW will be informing the Minister of the finish date of the trial,no more money on the table,ATW will pull the plug, you are correct in my opinion.

Just like all Welsh Gov funding,three years is three years...

So you're confidently predicting that the Welsh Government will cease funding and that the trial service to Fishguard will come to an end?

 

[Gareth Marston]

So you're confidently predicting that the Welsh Government will cease funding and that the trial service to Fishguard will come to an end?

It seems the current Ministers view is to review everything and set up working groups including the express bus to Cardiff Airport it seems old Professor Cole is the first name on the team sheet for a lot of things at the moment. What's his views on Fishguard anybody?
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Certain lines in Wales will not be in any electrification plans soon, Conwy Valley, Cambrian, Heart of Wales. Where does West Wales fit in with electrification plans? If it is scheduled then cascaded DMU's are the right option until the wires come however if there not or theres no prospect for 20 years then a new build DMU may be an option.

North Wales Coast and Wrexham to Bidston seem to be the likely wire candidates first in Wales.
Would battery operated EMU's be an option for the Conwy valley? Integrated with a north Wales coast electric diagram so as to keep them topped up. Can a battery emu run for as long as two hours away from wires?

 

[edwin_m]

Would battery operated EMU's be an option for the Conwy valley? Integrated with a north Wales coast electric diagram so as to keep them topped up. Can a battery emu run for as long as two hours away from wires?

I doubt it, especially when it's uphill most of the way. They would regenerate on the way back down so end up nicely topped up when they return to the charging point. Which suggests every uphill train should probably stop at Bettws for half an hour for a quick recharge.

I do agree there will be a need for some new self-powered trains, but in my view it's a decade or so away. With technology including batteries and fuel cells advancing quite rapidly, driven by the much larger automotive market, things which sound ridiculous today could be reasonable possibilities in a few years.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I doubt it, especially when it's uphill most of the way. They would regenerate on the way back down so end up nicely topped up when they return to the charging point. Which suggests every uphill train should probably stop at Bettws for half an hour for a quick recharge.

I do agree there will be a need for some new self-powered trains, but in my view it's a decade or so away. With technology including batteries and fuel cells advancing quite rapidly, driven by the much larger automotive market, things which sound ridiculous today could be reasonable possibilities in a few years.

The 379 trial is in East Anglia not anywhere with gradients.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Certain lines in Wales will not be in any electrification plans soon, Conwy Valley, Cambrian, Heart of Wales. Where does West Wales fit in with electrification plans?

In my view, S.W. Wales is an awkward one (though not as much as Conwy Valley). Swansea - Carmarthen would have 2-3tph, but to convert all of that to EMU operation you'd need to wire rather alot of lesser-used mileage west of Carmarthen (max Milford 1tph, Fishguard 0.5tph and Pembroke Dock 0.5 or 1 depending on cost of cutting journey times enough to path an hourly service). And you risk leaving HOWL as a diesel island if Shrewsbury is wired too.

North Wales Coast and Wrexham to Bidston seem to be the likely wire candidates first in Wales.

In my opinion, North Wales coast would require a new build of 444-alike EMUs, which as I said earlier would also be useful for TPE. I imagine that would release quite a number of 2-car 175s. Aside from wasted top speed, those would be quite useful for HOWL and most of the Swansea-Pembs. services and you could possibly use the HOWL to cycle 3-car 175s down from Chester to Carmarthen/Swansea for Carmarthen/Pembs.-Swansea/Cardiff work if 2-car isn't enough.

The 379 trial is in East Anglia not anywhere with gradients.

Is there any news on how that trial is going? Or how long the battery can last without recharge (if it's significantly longer than Conwy valley, it might still work)?

 

[merlodlliw]

It seems the current Ministers view is to review everything and set up working groups including the express bus to Cardiff Airport it seems old Professor Cole is the first name on the team sheet for a lot of things at the moment. What's his views on Fishguard anybody?

I agree,working groups are appearing everywhere,The North Wales group is due to report,I understand this month,this must be the only Committee Prof Cole is absent from, but no doubt consulting.

North Wales Coast and Wrexham to Bidston seem to be the likely wire candidates first in Wales.

Feedback I am getting seems to suggest Wrexham Bidston is getting to the top of the list, Big push from Deeside industry seems to be taken seriously by the WG Minister Chairing the North East Wales think tank.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I agree,working groups are appearing everywhere,The North Wales group is due to report,I understand this month,this must be the only Committee Prof Cole is absent from, but no doubt consulting.



Feedback I am getting seems to suggest Wrexham Bidston is getting to the top of the list, Big push from Deeside industry seems to be taken seriously by the WG Minister Chairing the North East Wales think tank.

Derby to Bristol, Chiltern and Birmingham Snow Hill commuter network in CP6 would be ideal from the point of DMU cascades, this would leave some infill schemes, the length of the route to Holyhead would seem to mitigate against it as you would have to add in Crewe to Chester and Chester to Warrington and dare i suggest Chester to Wrexham queue howls of protest for it to make sense which would make it a big scheme compared to the Bisdton to Wrexham.

No sign of old Professor Cole on the current Cambrian or HeRt of Wales groups but I'm told he's giving a seminar on transport statistics and economic development to civil servants in Cardiff next week.
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In my view, S.W. Wales is an awkward one (though not as much as Conwy Valley). Swansea - Carmarthen would have 2-3tph, but to convert all of that to EMU operation you'd need to wire rather alot of lesser-used mileage west of Carmarthen (max Milford 1tph, Fishguard 0.5tph and Pembroke Dock 0.5 or 1 depending on cost of cutting journey times enough to path an hourly service). And you risk leaving HOWL as a diesel island if Shrewsbury is wired too.

In my opinion, North Wales coast would require a new build of 444-alike EMUs, which as I said earlier would also be useful for TPE. I imagine that would release quite a number of 2-car 175s. Aside from wasted top speed, those would be quite useful for HOWL and most of the Swansea-Pembs. services and you could possibly use the HOWL to cycle 3-car 175s down from Chester to Carmarthen/Swansea for Carmarthen/Pembs.-Swansea/Cardiff work if 2-car isn't enough.

That why we need a 20 to 30 year network plan pan UK however franchise competition mitigates against long term planning.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Derby to Bristol, Chiltern and Birmingham Snow Hill commuter network in CP6 would be ideal from the point of DMU cascades, this would leave some infill schemes, the length of the route to Holyhead would seem to mitigate against it as you would have to add in Crewe to Chester and Chester to Warrington and dare i suggest Chester to Wrexham queue howls of protest for it to make sense which would make it a big scheme compared to the Bisdton to Wrexham.

The two I bolded are apparently on the list for consideration by the new task force to explore next steps for electrification in the north of England.

 

[merlodlliw]

The two I bolded are apparently on the list for consideration by the new task force to explore next steps for electrification in the north of England.

The wires will come to Chester from both directions (Warrington & Crewe),in my opinion & will be next on the list.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The wires will come to Chester from both directions (Warrington & Crewe),in my opinion & will be next on the list.

And onto North Wales?

 

[anthony263]

And onto North Wales?

We can hope if the WG/EU put some money into the pot.

 

[merlodlliw]

And onto North Wales?

Anyones guess.Although the current Sec Of State for Wales is very keen to see the North Wired, The late Lord Conwy was responsible for the A55 upgrade,so with a current North Wales pro rail Sec Of State,there is every hope.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Do not expect more than a token contribution from the EU .....Holyhead might be on a strategic route as far as they are concerned , but it joins a very long list - with priority really for East-West across middle Europe, - if there was still a Freightliner service - you would stand more of a chance....

 

[Gareth Marston]

Do not expect more than a token contribution from the EU .....Holyhead might be on a strategic route as far as they are concerned , but it joins a very long list - with priority really for East-West across middle Europe, - if there was still a Freightliner service - you would stand more of a chance....

decisions on next round of european funding (2014 to 2020) administered by WG have already largely taken place and the Head of the Valleys road is the main beneficiary.
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Anyones guess.Although the current Sec Of State for Wales is very keen to see the North Wired, The late Lord Conwy was responsible for the A55 upgrade,so with a current North Wales pro rail Sec Of State,there is every hope.

it would have to be a CP6 project and therefore to early to announce for 2015 election and the chances of David Jones still being SoS on going?

 

[jones_bangor]

it would have to be a CP6 project and therefore to early to announce for 2015 election and the chances of David Jones still being SoS on going?

Who knows! The joys of politics!

 

[D1009]

I can't see Acton Grange to Chester being electrified unless it continues to the North Wales coast. Crewe to Chester is rather different as it has become part of the core service on the WCML, and is a nuisance to have to operate with Voyagers.

 

[merlodlliw]

I can't see Acton Grange to Chester being electrified unless it continues to the North Wales coast. Crewe to Chester is rather different as it has become part of the core service on the WCML, and is a nuisance to have to operate with Voyagers.

They wired Kidsgrove to Crewe at great expense as a relief for blocked lines to Manchester, so why not Warrington to Crewe.

 

[edwin_m]

Kidsgrove to Crewe was a relatively short section that provided an electrified diversion around the much longer section between Crewe and Colwich. Crewe-Chester-Warrington is a much longer piece of electrification to provide an electrified diversion only for the much shorter section between Crewe and Acton Grange, and diversions would involve reversal at Chester. This section now has an electrified diversion via Manchester in any case. So I suggest diversions do not contribute much to the case for electrification.

 

[merlodlliw]

Kidsgrove to Crewe was a relatively short section that provided an electrified diversion around the much longer section between Crewe and Colwich. Crewe-Chester-Warrington is a much longer piece of electrification to provide an electrified diversion only for the much shorter section between Crewe and Acton Grange, and diversions would involve reversal at Chester. This section now has an electrified diversion via Manchester in any case. So I suggest diversions do not contribute much to the case for electrification.

I agree why the link was wired, but now we only have one EMU?an hour in each direction, plus a DMU calling at Alsager,the only station between Kidsgrove & Crewe.
I am sure Crewe/Chester carries far more passengers and would be an idle case for wires.
I recall when the line between Crewe & Warrington was Closed Chester was the diversion route,plus also for Crewe/Liverpool.

 

[edwin_m]

I am sure Crewe/Chester carries far more passengers and would be an idle case for wires.
I recall when the line between Crewe & Warrington was Closed Chester was the diversion route,plus also for Crewe/Liverpool.

Trains may have been diverted via Chester in the past, but with an electrified diversionary route available through Manchester for Warrington now and for Liverpool in a year or so, I'm pretty sure that would be used in preference. Especially as it doesn't involve reversal en route or end up with the set being turned end for end.

I do however agree that Crewe-Chester would be a good route for electrification, only that the justification will be based mainly on eliminating an hourly diesel all the way to Euston, not on diversions.

 

[merlodlliw]

Trains may have been diverted via Chester in the past, but with an electrified diversionary route available through Manchester for Warrington now and for Liverpool in a year or so, I'm pretty sure that would be used in preference. Especially as it doesn't involve reversal en route or end up with the set being turned end for end.

I do however agree that Crewe-Chester would be a good route for electrification, only that the justification will be based mainly on eliminating an hourly diesel all the way to Euston, not on diversions.

Yes indeed times change,out of interest is the Crewe Kidsgrove line used for freight,however I am now way off West Wales,