Swansea to West Wales local services

[anthony263]

Greenback it was Cardiff Central where the Manchester trains used to wait for a good 12-15 minutes before departing at 04 minutes past the hour.

Changing some of the services to depart Cardiff at 37 minutes past each hour and 35 minutes past each hour gives a better spread of departures from Swansea to Llanelli, Carmarthen and West Wales especially now that the Gowerton re-doubling has been completed

 

[merlodlliw]

ATW is trying to do the best it can within pathing and stock constraints. I for oen think the timetable is much improved from, say, 10 years ago.

[/QUOTE]

The timetable is much better, but one wonders why it took ATW so long to improve,the down side is new stock was in use prior to ATWs take over in Central trains areas of Wales, I appreciate West Wales did not enjoy the Bombardier experience, sadly missed

 

[Taunton]

There are a whole string of downsides. One is the breaking of connections from the main HST service from London to West Wales - surely a more significant market than odd points up the Marches line. Second is running the two every-hour trains on Newport to Swansea just a couple of minutes apart, thirdly having the small 2-coach train running ahead, which therefore scoops most of the waiting passengers, while the large HST running right behind just becomes emptier and emptier as it goes along.

 

[Rhydgaled]

the down side is new stock was in use prior to ATWs take over in Central trains areas of Wales, I appreciate West Wales did not enjoy the Bombardier experience, sadly missed

Newer is not necessarily better. I take it you are refering to class 170s, they may be newer than 158s but they are a suburban type of train, not regional express. Those doors waste space. 111 seats for a 2-car 170 versus 134 on a 158. I've never been on a 170 but I'm guessing they don't have many tables either if compared to a pre-ERTMS 158. Now if Bombardier had built a regional-express varient of the Turbostar...

 

[craigybagel]

I thought the Gerald set got as far as Carmarthen once. How did they do that? And how would the cost of training staff to take Gerald stock to Fishguard compare to the alternative of hiring extra 158s, even assuming another TOC can spare them?

I'm not sure when this happened, but I assume it was when Cardiff guards used to sign Gerald. That has since changed - I'm not sure if it was the move from Mk II to Mk III's, or Cardiff Mainline guards getting merged into one huge 90 person link, but around that time Cardiff guards had Gerald taken off their traction cards.

Hiring extra 158s (albeit purely hypothetical since neither the money nor the stock exists), whilst possibly more costly than training up crews to work Gerald, would be much more cost effective as through the cascade effect you could lengthen trains up and down the network, as opposed to spending a fortune on one train that rarely needs lengthening. That said, if ATW did get its hands on some extra stock, I would be amazed if the Fishguard boats was anywhere near the top of the priority list. By your own admission it only occasionally needs more than a 2 car set - there are trains full and standing every day across the network, they need the capacity much more.

 

[merlodlliw]

Newer is not necessarily better. I take it you are refering to class 170s, they may be newer than 158s but they are a suburban type of train, not regional express. Those doors waste space. 111 seats for a 2-car 170 versus 134 on a 158. I've never been on a 170 but I'm guessing they don't have many tables either if compared to a pre-ERTMS 158. Now if Bombardier had built a regional-express varient of the Turbostar...

Prior we had heritage DMUs,then along came the brand new Bombardier,yes I was referring to 170s,in my opinion far better than 158s.then along came Arriva with Valley lines logoed 150s, Worst still FNW 150s on the Bidston line were replaced by ATW pacers,

 

[anthony263]

In fairness the class 170's I have travelled on (Mostly the examples operated by Central/London Midland/Crosscountry) have been pretty good although I still think the class 175's are superior. The London Midland Examples are probably the best of the lot and have a good number of table seats

In fact its a shame the 175's were so unreliable when they first entered service as we could certainly do with additional examples especially if they to were fitted with ERTMS to allow use over the Cambrian Line.

Despite their door layout I dont find the 170's to be as bad as some posters on here make out.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Prior we had heritage DMUs,then along came the brand new Bombardier,yes I was referring to 170s,in my opinion far better than 158s.then along came Arriva with Valley lines logoed 150s, Worst still FNW 150s on the Bidston line were replaced by ATW pacers,

As we're running up to the 10th anniversary of ATW there are still many who remember how things went backwards in the early years of the franchise on their line, the Cambrian being one as well. Whether this is down to Arriva or the poor thinking behind the creation of the franchise is another debate however anyone who had any dealings with the Arriva "minder" that was sent down to Cardiff in late 03/04 will know the people of Wales and the passengers were not Arrivas priority. Roger Cobbe was his name corporate arrogance was his game.

 

[Greenback]

Greenback it was Cardiff Central where the Manchester trains used to wait for a good 12-15 minutes before departing at 04 minutes past the hour.

Thanks, I thought it was but wasn't certain!

Changing some of the services to depart Cardiff at 37 minutes past each hour and 35 minutes past each hour gives a better spread of departures from Swansea to Llanelli, Carmarthen and West Wales especially now that the Gowerton re-doubling has been completed

Indeed it does. A fact which is much better for local passengers, especially where long distance travellers from London etc can conenct at Cardiff instead ou tof the xx15 trains from Paddington.

There are a whole string of downsides. One is the breaking of connections from the main HST service from London to West Wales - surely a more significant market than odd points up the Marches line. Second is running the two every-hour trains on Newport to Swansea just a couple of minutes apart, thirdly having the small 2-coach train running ahead, which therefore scoops most of the waiting passengers, while the large HST running right behind just becomes emptier and emptier as it goes along.

There are no broken connections though. there is an hourly service from London to Carmarthen leaving at 0915 and so on, taking a few minutes over four hours. These are 18 or 19 minute connections at Cardiff, which is almost the same as the traditional connection at Swansea!

As a Llanelli resident, I am quit epleased with the almost half hourly links between London/Reading and my town. The only train which doesn't have a Llanelli connection appears to be the 1545 from Paddington. Otherwise it is half hourly between 0745 and 1745 with journey times of between 3 hours 16 minutes and 3 hours 48 minutes. Ideally, the slower journeys would be a little faster, but otherwise, I think it is pretty good.

I agree that it is not ideal to have so many passengers for the intermediate stations trying to cram on the first service when it is 2 or 3 carriages. But I have seen many occasions at Cardiff where the staff have been proactive in advising those customers to wait a few minutes for the HST so as to avoid overcrowding a 175.

Given that the departure times of the Marches services are dictated by capacity at Manchester Piccadilly and the other major junctions en route, what would you propose to resolve this? As I said before, I think that the timetable at the moment is probably about as good as it can be, given the circumstances.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Thanks, I thought it was but wasn't certain!



Indeed it does. A fact which is much better for local passengers, especially where long distance travellers from London etc can conenct at Cardiff instead ou tof the xx15 trains from Paddington.



There are no broken connections though. there is an hourly service from London to Carmarthen leaving at 0915 and so on, taking a few minutes over four hours. These are 18 or 19 minute connections at Cardiff, which is almost the same as the traditional connection at Swansea!


As a Llanelli resident, I am quit epleased with the almost half hourly links between London/Reading and my town. The only train which doesn't have a Llanelli connection appears to be the 1545 from Paddington. Otherwise it is half hourly between 0745 and 1745 with journey times of between 3 hours 16 minutes and 3 hours 48 minutes. Ideally, the slower journeys would be a little faster, but otherwise, I think it is pretty good.

I agree that it is not ideal to have so many passengers for the intermediate stations trying to cram on the first service when it is 2 or 3 carriages. But I have seen many occasions at Cardiff where the staff have been proactive in advising those customers to wait a few minutes for the HST so as to avoid overcrowding a 175.

Given that the departure times of the Marches services are dictated by capacity at Manchester Piccadilly and the other major junctions en route, what would you propose to resolve this? As I said before, I think that the timetable at the moment is probably about as good as it can be, given the circumstances.

It's splitting it after electrification Marches stuff terminate at Cardiff and your west Wales trains connect into the London trains at Swansea apart from a few flyers over the SDL. Swansea to Bristol semi fast EMU runs 30 minutes behind the London IEP.

 

[Greenback]

It's splitting it after electrification Marches stuff terminate at Cardiff and your west Wales trains connect into the London trains at Swansea apart from a few flyers over the SDL. Swansea to Bristol semi fast EMU runs 30 minutes behind the London IEP.

When electrification is finished, I do think we will see a reversion to connections from the London direction at Swansea. I am also looking forward to a direct Swansea - Bristol service under the wires.

I don't see the point of running diesels between Swansea and Cardiff, though a few direct trains via the Swansea District Line at key times would be welcome.

 

[Gareth Marston]

When electrification is finished, I do think we will see a reversion to connections from the London direction at Swansea. I am also looking forward to a direct Swansea - Bristol service under the wires.

I don't see the point of running diesels between Swansea and Cardiff, though a few direct trains via the Swansea District Line at key times would be welcome.

The direct service to Bristol from the towns west of Cardiff will be a bonus and attract much custom, the numbers heading north up Marches from west of Cardiff are small.

 

[Bevan Price]

The trouble is the 90mph top speed would not be needed, except on trains to Cardiff, unless we have some linespeed improvments.

I suppose there is the benifit of a uniform fleet there, but if Gareth's suggestion of 12 158s is correct it will not be enough to run the service I proposed above. I estimate:

• 8 diagrams required for Swansea - Carmarthen/Fishguard/Milford/Pembroke (a 155/156 would do for these, if suitably refurbished with decent legroom)
• 5 diagrams required for Cardiff - Morriston - Milford/Carmarthen (these need to be either 158s or 175s)
• Up to 5 diagrams required for HOWL* (a 155/156 would do for these, if suitably refurbished with decent legroom)

* That's a very rough guess for a 2-hourly service extended to include the Crewe - Shrewsbury stopper. Without Crewe-Shrewsbury it would be 4 diagrams.

Personally I think the franchise should have three types of DMU, 175 and 158 for the fast services and 155 or 156 for the slower routes.

Portion working might be a good idea. If accessible toilets weren't so huge it could allow you to use 153s on some Swansea services, so modifying my ideas above you could do:

1tph Swansea - Carmarthen (all stations), 156/155 with a second 156/155 as a portion to/from HOWL every two hours
1tph Swansea - Whitland (all stations except Kidwelly and Ferryside) formed of a 156/155, alternating between Pembroke and Milford with a 153 attached as a Fishguard portion every two hours. I haven't checked this though, the Pembroke train might come back in the wrong hour

If you do this it might be worth keeping a few 150s which would be restricted to the Swansea - Carmarthen stoppers and also run new services from Swansea to the Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen branch in the other hours to the HOWL train, which would still be a 156/155.

From where do you propose to get any Class 156 ? If Northern electrification ever releases any dmus, these will almost certainly be 142s, 144s, followed by 150s, rather than 156s.

Further extensions of Scottish electrification may eventually allow spare 170s to displace 156s on Carlisle - Glasgow, but if these moved elsewhere, I would expect them to go to Northern, East Midland or Anglia rather than Wales.

 

[tbtc]

Newer is not necessarily better. I take it you are refering to class 170s, they may be newer than 158s but they are a suburban type of train, not regional express. Those doors waste space. 111 seats for a 2-car 170 versus 134 on a 158. I've never been on a 170

One of the reasons for the lower capacity of a 170 (apart from the wider doors that save time at busy platforms) is that they have larger "universal" toilets, being modern stock.

That probably accounts for around half of the difference that you've quoted.

 

[anthony263]

When electrification is finished, I do think we will see a reversion to connections from the London direction at Swansea. I am also looking forward to a direct Swansea - Bristol service under the wires.

I don't see the point of running diesels between Swansea and Cardiff, though a few direct trains via the Swansea District Line at key times would be welcome.

A 30 minutely Swansea - Bristol service using emu's I think will be very popular and as others have said you see a lot of passengers traveling from Bridgend who change onto the Taunton & Portsmouth Hbr services at Cardiff.

These semi-fast services I do hope call at Pyle like the Manchester services do during the peaks and sundays without adding much to the journey time thanks to the brilliant acceleration and top speed of the class 175's. The recent suggestion by SEWTA of cutting the Swanline services to run between Swnasea & Port Talbot Parkway could in theory work if the service runs every 30 minutes and has good connections at Port Talbot Parkway (Perhaps it could be operated by tram-trains and run via Swansea city Centre down to Mumbles).

I use Pyle station regulary and it is getting busier all of the time helped by improvements to the station and the number of trains serviving the station although the long gap between trains off peak leaves a lot of room for improvements.

Another downside is the loss of direct Cardiff - Portsmouth Hbr services this could be aleviated by running the services from Swansea through to Bath Spa and by increasing teh direct Cardiff - Bristol service to 4tph with the extra 2tph worked by emu's but running along the relief lines between Cardiff & Newport serving new stations at St Mellons & Llanwern.

The main problem I see is that if services via the Marches line are cut back to Cardiff then you will see many in west wales complaining about changing @ Swansea despite the SDL flyers and if you kept the direct Manchester - Milford Haven services you would then have people complaining about running dmu's under the wires so its a fine balancing act

 

[Gareth Marston]

From where do you propose to get any Class 156 ? If Northern electrification ever releases any dmus, these will almost certainly be 142s, 144s, followed by 150s, rather than 156s.

Further extensions of Scottish electrification may eventually allow spare 170s to displace 156s on Carlisle - Glasgow, but if these moved elsewhere, I would expect them to go to Northern, East Midland or Anglia rather than Wales.

It's 158's from FGW. The basic tt will be an hourly connection into the London terminator at Swansea current thinking is that these will alternate between Milford Haven and Pembroke Dock. This will need 6 units diagrammed. The Heart of Wales will have 3 units allocated to it with the understanding that the extra unit will mainly work over the southern end. Diagram 10 will be for the Fishguard boat unit only as far as Swansea which will also run peak extras between Carmarthen and Swansea. 11 will be for summer strengthening and 12 on depot.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Given that the departure times of the Marches services are dictated by capacity at Manchester Piccadilly and the other major junctions en route, what would you propose to resolve this?

Cut the Manchester services off from the west of Swansea ones so that you have a Manchester - Swansea service. That would no longer penertrate into the more sparesly populated area west of Swansea so you can lengthen the Swansea - Manchester train to a decent length without fear of carting too much fresh air. Of course it then comes down to shortage of rolling stock and particularly the reluctance to use LHCS. S.W. Wales to Cardiff through services can then use the SDL and avoid capacity issues by not calling at Bridgend, Neath and Swansea.

From where do you propose to get any Class 156 ?

I don't know, but 155s (reformed from 153s and refurbished to improve legroom) would do instead if they are eaiser to get hold of. Is there anywhere 153s/155s/156s are used which would benifit from 90mph stock, so you could invent some sort of cascade with 222s and 158s?

What I do know from experience is that a 150 is not comfortable enough for a journey of much over an hour, and therefore something better is needed for HOWL and most west of Swansea services.

One of the reasons for the lower capacity of a 170 (apart from the wider doors that save time at busy platforms) is that they have larger "universal" toilets, being modern stock.

That probably accounts for around half of the difference that you've quoted.

The 158s have one 'accessible' toilet though don't they? I suppose it probably isn't quite as big as the ones required by the TSI-PRM spec though.

The main problem I see is that if services via the Marches line are cut back to Cardiff then you will see many in west wales complaining about changing @ Swansea despite the SDL flyers and if you kept the direct Manchester - Milford Haven services you would then have people complaining about running dmu's under the wires so its a fine balancing act

Which is why my prefered option for SDL flyers is 1tph to Carmarthen of which 0.5tph continues to Milford Haven, almost the same through frequency to Cardiff as today's Manchesters.

It's 158's from FGW. The basic tt will be an hourly connection into the London terminator at Swansea current thinking is that these will alternate between Milford Haven and Pembroke Dock. This will need 6 units diagrammed. The Heart of Wales will have 3 units allocated to it with the understanding that the extra unit will mainly work over the southern end. Diagram 10 will be for the Fishguard boat unit only as far as Swansea which will also run peak extras between Carmarthen and Swansea. 11 will be for summer strengthening and 12 on depot.

But FirstGW need the 158s more, for Cardiff-Portsmouth. There's no 90mph west of Swansea. 158s west of Cardiff are only needed for SDL flyers in my opinion. Plus 12 units wouldn't be enough to meet SWWITCH goals of up to 3tph between Swansea and Carmarthen.

 

[Bevan Price]

From where do you propose to get any Class 156 ? If Northern electrification ever releases any dmus, these will almost certainly be 142s, 144s, followed by 150s, rather than 156s.

I don't know, but 155s (reformed from 153s and refurbished to improve legroom) would do instead if they are eaiser to get hold of. Is there anywhere 153s/155s/156s are used which would benifit from 90mph stock, so you could invent some sort of cascade with 222s and 158s?

.

Many of the lines served by Classes 155 & 156 are restricted to 75 mph or less. And 222s would not be suitable for local or semi-fast services such as Calder Valley line, Manchester to Blackburn / Clitheroe, etc.

 

[tbtc]

From where do you propose to get any Class 156 ? If Northern electrification ever releases any dmus, these will almost certainly be 142s, 144s, followed by 150s, rather than 156s

155s/156s to south west Wales is one of Rhydgaled's regular "suggestions".

Not convinced, myself.

Cut the Manchester services off from the west of Swansea ones so that you have a Manchester - Swansea service

If you're going to cut it, why run it under the wires from Cardiff to Swansea? Just chop it at Cardiff, and run more EMUs on the Swansea - Cardiff - Newport- Bristol corridor.

(yes, I am sure that there are some people who travel from Swansea to Manchester, just as there are some people who'd presumably want a direct link from Swansea to Birmingham etc but that's not happened for a few years!)

 

[Rhydgaled]

155s/156s to south west Wales is one of Rhydgaled's regular "suggestions".

Not convinced, myself.

Yes, I think I am quite consistent in my opinion on the future rail service west of Swansea. Why are you not convinced though? Do you disagree that 155/156 would be suitable or is it that you believe my suggestions are not possible (which you may well be correct in saying)?

If you're going to cut it, why run it under the wires from Cardiff to Swansea? Just chop it at Cardiff, and run more EMUs on the Swansea - Cardiff - Newport- Bristol corridor.

I suppose it depends on the EMUs you use. Paths permitting, I would like to see 4tph eastbound out of Swansea. Of these, 2tph would call at Neath, Port Talbot and Bridgend, 1tph would be all-stations and the fourth would serve Neath, Port Talbot, Pyle and Bridgend (this is based on suggestions by Anthony that Pyle should have 2tph).

The most suitable stock for the all-stops service would probably be the same for Cardiff to Maesteg and Ebbw Vale (and Cheltenham if only it was going to be wired). My suggestion is class 377s, probably in 3-car form. The other Pyle service would probably use the same type of stock too. That leaves the faster 2tph, which I believe should be INTERCITY or regional express standard stock, of at least 5 coaches. One is the London train (which should be at least 8 coaches), the other could be a Bristol in theroy but would probably result in a micro-fleet if you don't use the same suburban EMUs as the Maestegs etc. Hence the Manchesters, as they can share a fleet of regional express or INTERCITY standard trains with north Wales services.

I suppose a solution to quite a few problems would be to build a new fleet of regional express units with a straight EMU and a bi-mode variant. The EMU version could be used on TPE, Swansea - Bristol (avoiding the need for the Manchesters to go west of Cardiff) and would also be suitable for north Wales if electrification goes ahead. The bi-mode could be used to release 158s from Cardiff-Portsmouth and maybe Liverpool-Norwich and 159s from SWT.

Oh, and one other reason for cutting Manchesters at Swansea rather than Cardiff is the lack of terminal platforms (or space for many, if any) at the latter. So, Cardiff platforms and rolling stock deployment are my main reasons for suggesting retaining a Manchester-Swansea service. As far as diesel west of Cardiff goes though, if lack of paths means it's a choice between an hourly MAN-SWA or an hourly Carmarthen-Cardiff SDL flyer then the Manchesters can terminate at Cardiff.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Cardiff Area Resignalling in 2015 will resolve the terminating issues at Cardiff.

The FGW 158 is something that's currently being looked at for post electrification along with displaced 222's for Long distance intra regional trains in the non Electrified south west.

CASR is the first big window for change in 2015 and then it will be 2018 when SWML is wired.

 

[anthony263]

If platforms 3 is made bi-directional I wouldnt be surprised to see some services with short turnaround times reversing there rather than shunting out to the carriage sidings near Canton and coming back into platform 1. The service I am thinking of in particular is the Nottingham - Cardiff service which has a turnaround time at Cardiff of 15-17 minutes.

I agree the Cardiff area resignalling once completed is going to provide a big help in improving puntuality especially around Cardiff Central with the track layout being modified. freights tend to hold up anything wanting to come into platforms 3 or 4 at the moment.

I am not too sure about a 2 hourly service to Milford Haven certainly during the peaks it can justify an hourly service. This is one reason why I disagree about that class 08:04 Fishguard Hbr - Manchester service which I believe would be better off starting from Milford Haven. Fishguard Harbour can then be served by a service at 07:37 which attaches to the 07:09 Pembroke Dock - Cardiff service at Whitland arriving into Carmarthen at 08:29 and arriving into Swansea at around 09:18. The train can then be split again at Swansea.

Of course this will depand on the timetable to Fishguard being improved.

A better service along the heart of wales line is to be welcomed especially if it offers a sounthbound service from Llandeilo which arrives into Swansea at around 08:30 and a departure from Swansea around 17:25. The current northbound service at 04:36 dpoes seem to be popular with travellers heading home to Llanelli as well as to Pontardulais especially on a saturday morning

 

[ValleyLines142]

If platforms 3 is made bi-directional

If we're referring to Cardiff, I believe platform 3 (and platform 4 for that matter) is bidirectional already. The 0540 Cardiff to Manchester departs from platform 3 and also I have seen FGW London and Taunton services departing from platform 4 (and once a Holyhead service) during times of disruption.

The very short turnaround of the Nottingham to Cardiff services does mean it can depart four or five minutes late on it's return journey (xx:45 from Cardiff), and if it's running over fifteen minutes late, well it's had it!

 

[Gareth Marston]

If platforms 3 is made bi-directional I wouldnt be surprised to see some services with short turnaround times reversing there rather than shunting out to the carriage sidings near Canton and coming back into platform 1. The service I am thinking of in particular is the Nottingham - Cardiff service which has a turnaround time at Cardiff of 15-17 minutes.

I agree the Cardiff area resignalling once completed is going to provide a big help in improving puntuality especially around Cardiff Central with the track layout being modified. freights tend to hold up anything wanting to come into platforms 3 or 4 at the moment.

I am not too sure about a 2 hourly service to Milford Haven certainly during the peaks it can justify an hourly service. This is one reason why I disagree about that class 08:04 Fishguard Hbr - Manchester service which I believe would be better off starting from Milford Haven. Fishguard Harbour can then be served by a service at 07:37 which attaches to the 07:09 Pembroke Dock - Cardiff service at Whitland arriving into Carmarthen at 08:29 and arriving into Swansea at around 09:18. The train can then be split again at Swansea.

Of course this will depand on the timetable to Fishguard being improved.

A better service along the heart of wales line is to be welcomed especially if it offers a sounthbound service from Llandeilo which arrives into Swansea at around 08:30 and a departure from Swansea around 17:25. The current northbound service at 04:36 dpoes seem to be popular with travellers heading home to Llanelli as well as to Pontardulais especially on a saturday morning

To a degree its still up for grabs 5 years out, but its best to know what the thinking is. I note the Welsh Government consultation on the future franchise that was suppose to be out by October has yet to be seen. There's also talk of a 2 year extension for ATW so it ends when Valley Lines are electrified. Given that franchises only deliver there modest improvements in the early years this will not be good news away from the line being wired.

The Holyhead's will turn around at Cardiff as well combined with line speed improvements and Wrexham redouble this will free up one unit.

 

[Rhydgaled]

I note the Welsh Government consultation on the future franchise that was suppose to be out by October has yet to be seen.

There was one on the National Assembly for Wales website not long ago, could the date for that have been muddled with the Welsh Government consulation?

 

[Muzer]

The FGW 158 is something that's currently being looked at for post electrification along with displaced 222's for Long distance intra regional trains in the non Electrified south west.

Still interested in (hypothetically) what would replace the 158s on Cardiff<-->Portsmouth? Cascaded Thames Turbos would be a bit of a downgrade for the route IMHO, from suitable regional express stock to relatively unsuitable outer suburban stock. Maybe 22xs, but I would assume they would be mildly overkill...

 

[Rhydgaled]

Still interested in (hypothetically) what would replace the 158s on Cardiff<-->Portsmouth? Cascaded Thames Turbos would be a bit of a downgrade for the route IMHO, from suitable regional express stock to relatively unsuitable outer suburban stock. Maybe 22xs, but I would assume they would be mildly overkill...

Agreed, Thames Turbos on Cardiff-Portsmouth would be a step in the wrong direction. The trouble with 22xs is you need more carriages to get the same capacity and the running costs are higher anyway. A 5-car 22x might end up being a better match for the capacity requirements of Cardiff-Portsmouth than it would be on Intercity work though.

 

[cslusarc]

I suppose it depends on the EMUs you use. Paths permitting, I would like to see 4tph eastbound out of Swansea. Of these, 2tph would call at Neath, Port Talbot and Bridgend, 1tph would be all-stations and the fourth would serve Neath, Port Talbot, Pyle and Bridgend (this is based on suggestions by Anthony that Pyle should have 2tph).

The most suitable stock for the all-stops service would probably be the same for Cardiff to Maesteg and Ebbw Vale (and Cheltenham if only it was going to be wired). My suggestion is class 377s, probably in 3-car form. The other Pyle service would probably use the same type of stock too. That leaves the faster 2tph, which I believe should be INTERCITY or regional express standard stock, of at least 5 coaches. One is the London train (which should be at least 8 coaches), the other could be a Bristol in theroy but would probably result in a micro-fleet if you don't use the same suburban EMUs as the Maestegs etc. Hence the Manchesters, as they can share a fleet of regional express or INTERCITY standard trains with north Wales services.

I suppose a solution to quite a few problems would be to build a new fleet of regional express units with a straight EMU and a bi-mode variant. The EMU version could be used on TPE, Swansea - Bristol (avoiding the need for the Manchesters to go west of Cardiff) and would also be suitable for north Wales if electrification goes ahead. The bi-mode could be used to release 158s from Cardiff-Portsmouth and maybe Liverpool-Norwich and 159s from SWT.

Oh, and one other reason for cutting Manchesters at Swansea rather than Cardiff is the lack of terminal platforms (or space for many, if any) at the latter. So, Cardiff platforms and rolling stock deployment are my main reasons for suggesting retaining a Manchester-Swansea service. As far as diesel west of Cardiff goes though, if lack of paths means it's a choice between an hourly MAN-SWA or an hourly Carmarthen-Cardiff SDL flyer then the Manchesters can terminate at Cardiff.

After completion of South Wales Main Line Electrification between CDF and SWA in 2019 or so:
- I would like to see the PAD - SWA direct IEP-operated services become 2tph with 5 or 8 coaches.
- A 1tph Local services and a 1tph Semi-fast on the SWML could be operated with either the 21 3-car Class 318s or 22 3-car Class 320s (both currently with ScotRail but eligible for cascade to England & Wales).
- And an additional (peak hours only) train to points in Southwest Wales using the SDL.

 

[Rhydgaled]

After completion of South Wales Main Line Electrification between CDF and SWA in 2019 or so:
- I would like to see the PAD - SWA direct IEP-operated services become 2tph with 5 or 8 coaches.
- A 1tph Local services and a 1tph Semi-fast on the SWML could be operated with either the 21 3-car Class 318s or 22 3-car Class 320s (both currently with ScotRail but eligible for cascade to England & Wales).
- And an additional (peak hours only) train to points in Southwest Wales using the SDL.

I suppose that would give the 2tph IC-standard Neath-Port Talbot-Bridgend service I suggested, but I'd rather a mix of London and either Bristol or Manchester as destinations rather than just double the Londons.

Shame the 318s have lost their corridor connections otherwise they look like they would be similar to the 150s used on the valleys but with an extra coach and powered by electricity. Probably not quite a big enough fleet for the ValleyLines but maybe if you had 377s for the mainline (Swanline, Ebbw Vale and Maesteg) and turn Cardiff Bay and half of the city line (I think it's called Coryton) over to trams/tram-trains and they might just be enough to cover the core valleys through Cardiff Queen Street.

 

[D6975]

Still interested in (hypothetically) what would replace the 158s on Cardiff<-->Portsmouth? Cascaded Thames Turbos would be a bit of a downgrade for the route IMHO, from suitable regional express stock to relatively unsuitable outer suburban stock. Maybe 22xs, but I would assume they would be mildly overkill...

The short term plan was to reform the 158s into 2 car units and run 4 car sets on the Pompeys. This requires a few more 158 carriages. Where the 158s would come from I'm not sure, perhaps from the impending electrification cascades?

As for the loss of through trains from Cardiff to Pompey, as someone who lives in Bristol I can testify that these services all but empty out on arrival at TM. They're well loaded in and out, but not with the same passengers. Those who do remain on board from S Wales are further thinned out at Bath too. A Swansea-Bath EMU service and a TM-Pompey DMU service is a logical move. It would also allow what S Wales-Pompey line passengers there are easier, same platform changes at Bath rather than having to change at TM.

Reversal of EMUs at Bath isn't much of a problem, there's a loop at Bathampton that would need a trailing crossover to enable the up platform at Bath to be cleared by the terminators, getting them out of the way before returning to the down platform. Modifying the signalling would probably be the biggest cost item. TM is going to be resignalled anyway because of the new platforms and the demolition of the existing power box.