NR CP5 Budget - ORR Final Determination

[LNW-GW Joint]

This is now on the ORR web site: http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/pr13/publications/final-determination.php

NR has got some but by no means all of the increases it wanted from the draft in June.

From a quick read:
- a number of projects, including Northern Hub, Electric Spine (except MML) and East West Rail, are placed in a category where spend is conditionally approved, pending better costings at GRIP3 stage
- Northern Hub funds are not ring-fenced
- Carstairs remodelling and Edinburgh South Suburban electrification are not approved (not in HLOS)
- GW and MML electrification costs are up by £376m
- Uckfield electrification is not approved (not in HLOS)
- ETCS cab fitment (NR funds the "first in class") will now be a development project rather than a renewal cost
- NR signalling strategy (concentration in ROCs) is approved
- the cost of traction electricity seems to have come down significantly in the past year; this is at odds with the domestic situation!
- helicopter inspection patrols of the overhead kit on the WCML
- WC, EC and GW long-distance services will be on a different PPM measure to the other TOCs.
They will be targeted on 88% PPM with additional targets on significant lateness
- more level crossing replacement spend

I'm sure there is more in the small print.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Is Carstairs remodeling badly required? As in can it wait till the junction is renewed?

nice to see Northern Hub still mentioned, gives me hope. Suppose now it is wait till March and see what NR have planned.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Is Carstairs remodeling badly required? As in can it wait till the junction is renewed?
nice to see Northern Hub still mentioned, gives me hope. Suppose now it is wait till March and see what NR have planned.

I think at Carstairs there are some CP5 renewals planned.
NR and the operators want to take the opportunity to improve the junction for faster journey times, but it did not make its way into the HLOS.
It possibly fell down the crack because it's in Scotland but mainly for cross-border services.
Anyway ORR has not funded it because it was not required in the HLOS.

The gist on Northern Hub was that costs are uncertain and ORR will not give NR a blank cheque for it.
Also it is in the big project pot with everything else, not ring-fenced.
It's a way of stopping the costs spiralling out of control.
That's why cost overruns on (eg) GW/MML electrification might have an impact.

Overall, though, ORR is not refusing to fund any major project, or push them out to CP6, but at the same time NR has to meet the lower cost targets.
I should think there will be another shoot-out in a couple of years' time, when the real project costs emerge.
NR's response today is quite constructive.
http://www.networkrailmediacentre.c...responds-to-ORR-final-determination-1ee3.aspx

 

[tbtc]

Is Carstairs remodeling badly required? As in can it wait till the junction is renewed?

Its a slow section on a fast line, but it doesn't affect a large number of trains in the average hour (compared to some bottlenecks in the UK).

Maybe they'll pay for the improvements by removing the member of staff from the quietest staffed station on the network?

Or wait for HS3?

 

[YorkshireBear]

That is a shame i know Network Rail are now trying to tie in upgrades with any junction renewals where needed. Ala Nottingham and the current thinking for Market Harborough presuming they can afford it.

I know Carstairs is incredibly inefficient it would nice to change that, but we can't have everything. I would have thought it would get added as it will most likely need upgrading for HS2! We don't want 250mph train going 20 round a curve on route.

 

[WatcherZero]

Yeah I agree to that it is needed, but its also got a high chance of attracting funding from other sources so not vital NR funds it itself.

 

[northwichcat]

nice to see Northern Hub still mentioned, gives me hope. Suppose now it is wait till March and see what NR have planned.

We also acknowledge that costs may change as scope is finalised, particularly as scope becomes more clearly defined. We agree with the consultation responses that the programme as a whole is not yet far enough developed to establish an accurate efficient cost. We have already stated that we plan to re-assess costs for the Northern Hub through the enhancements cost adjustment mechanism. This will happen by March 2015 at the latest.

To me that doesn't read as though they might reduce funding but that they don't know exactly how much things will cost in a few years time so don't wanted to give a figure which is later seen as an underestimation.

 

[IKBrunel]

- helicopter inspection patrols of the overhead kit on the WCML

I know helicopter inspections are all the rage these days, but I'm curious as to what the advantage of a helicopter is over the NMT.. presumably its a quick response thing rather than a technical improvement on what the NMT can do?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I know helicopter inspections are all the rage these days, but I'm curious as to what the advantage of a helicopter is over the NMT.. presumably its a quick response thing rather than a technical improvement on what the NMT can do?

It just stood out among all the boring bits! If it is viable you would think it would also apply to the ECML.
For OHLE the NMT doesn't do much - it's mainly aimed at track quality.
In fact the best OHLE tool is the data capture from the 1-2 Pendolinos fitted with monitoring gear.
Network Rail originally weren't interested in this, but sat up when VT was able to tell them where the problems were. It's now a key maintainance tool.

 

[Philip Elliott]

The NMT looks at the contact wire and not the rest of the kit.

 

[clc]

Regarding the Carstairs upgrade, as the Edinburgh-Glasgow HSR plan includes a spur to the WCML am I right in thinking that all cross border services which currently pass through Carstairs would divert onto this new spur? If so, is it not conceivable that the plan is for the spur to join the WCML south of Carstairs bypassing it altogether? It could explain why Scottish Ministers didn't include the upgrade in their HLOS.

 

[WatcherZero]

I may be mistaken but I thought under current plans HS2 still went through Carstairs. On the plus side Government announced during the debtate last week that they were formally asking HS2 Ltd to look at routes to Scotland and improved connections between Northern cities (though I wasnt sure with the phrasing if they meant between the English cities or between the english cities and Scotland) using the existing HS2 planning and compensation framework, i.e a new bill wouldnt have to be passed to fund their inclusion in studies.

Its something I gladly welcome as next to no work has been done on ideas for using the network beyond London services such as services between Scotland and Lancashire and Manchester Airport/Central or modeling of service patterns/demand outside the newbuild stations.

 

[YorkshireBear]

It is essential that it goes to Scotland in my eyes, the current thinking of using the WCML is simply not fit for purpose in my eyes, destroys regional capacity and freight capacity on a very major corridor. Also Scotland is where actually advertising journey times is essential. Problems is, Leeds and Manchester are not through stations... :/

 

[clc]

I may be mistaken but I thought under current plans HS2 still went through Carstairs..

It does at the moment but that could change. The Scottish Govt plans to open it's HSR line around the same time as HS2 phase 1 (or just before). Depending on how far south this line extends to (which we dont yet know) HS2 trains may never have to go through Carstairs.

 

[swt_passenger]

I know helicopter inspections are all the rage these days, but I'm curious as to what the advantage of a helicopter is over the NMT.. presumably its a quick response thing rather than a technical improvement on what the NMT can do?

I think one of the advantages of helicopter inspection of OHLE is that an IR camera can find faults that often show up as localised overheating. I've heard the grid people do the same on their pylons and stuff.

 

[WatcherZero]

The final determination section on Northern Hub was intersting, ORR attempting to stick to their guns and justify the efficency cuts as its not a protected scheme but they are backpedalling on the waiting until better estimates before determining final budget and acknowledge the consultation response to their proposed cutting of its budget was large and negative.

 

[kieron]

I think one of the advantages of helicopter inspection of OHLE is that an IR camera can find faults that often show up as localised overheating. I've heard the grid people do the same on their pylons and stuff.

You could stick that on a train, though. Then you won't have to worry about having a second inspection method to deal with OHLE equipment in populated areas or in tunnels.

Helicopters are good for electric inspections despite these shortcomings as a lot of National Grid equipment is in the middle of a field somewhere, making ground based inspection very slow.

 

[jon0844]

I was thinking that a helicopter might have some drawbacks, like tunnels and even other obstructions (high buildings etc) that would mean sections being missed - and a train actually going along the line that can see out the front, down below (track) and above (power lines) would always be better.

 

[Bald Rick]

You could stick that on a train, though. Then you won't have to worry about having a second inspection method to deal with OHLE equipment in populated areas or in tunnels.

Helicopters are good for electric inspections despite these shortcomings as a lot of National Grid equipment is in the middle of a field somewhere, making ground based inspection very slow.

And a lot of the OLE, eg over boom catenary arrangements, is not visible from the ground or train, hence the requirement to inspect it from above. Traditional method was to use ladders, or more likely, not bother. Then wonder why the wires come down.

 

[kieron]

And a lot of the OLE, eg over boom catenary arrangements, is not visible from the ground or train, hence the requirement to inspect it from above. Traditional method was to use ladders, or more likely, not bother. Then wonder why the wires come down.

I'm sure there are some things of interest which aren't visible from the front or side, but I wouldn't have thought infra-red would be a particular attraction of the idea when most of the structure conducts heat pretty well.

Maybe it is a cost-effective way of doing something useful, though. The report doesn't give much away.