Would Scottish Independence Affect services to/from England?

[clc]

Does anyone actually believe that they will become independent?

Yes Scotland believes No is the default position for many people who are soft No's who are open to persuasion and will switch to Yes once they have engaged with the debate. A recent edition of Newsnight illustrated the point, where beforehand a poll of the audience had No's comfortably in the lead, but after hearing the arguments from both sides the balance switched comfortably in favour of Yes. Kirsty Wark was visibly shocked (LoL).

The difficulty for Yes Scotland is countering the constant barrage of negativity from the media which is predominantly anti independence. On the other hand, Yes Scotland is building a grassroots campaign and can call on a vast army of highly motivated activists who will hit the streets in huge numbers when the time comes.

I honestly don't know how the vote will go but I think it will be close.

 

[IanXC]

Put in bold all you want fella Scotland is already in EU therefore will negotiate as existing member as EU lawyers and Scottish Government have already explained!
If you want to get into debate please read what they have to say first

The Scottish Government would say that wouldn't they! Scotland would approach an EU membership application as a state which applies the acquis, however the kinds of opt outs and concessions which can be obtained now, as compared to when the UK agreed its Accession Treaty are very different. The best comparison we have is the abortive negotiations held with Iceland. As an EEA member state Iceland was in the position of already applying significant parts of the acquis, however the difficulties encountered there show quite how difficult an application by Scotland could be.

International law is quite clear that the UK would be the continuing state, and Scotland would be a new state, any treaties entered into by the UK would no longer apply to Scotland, and would have to be renegotiated.

Yet again England don't fund "them" facts please

Scotland is a Country just as England is EU scare tactics has been done to death. One thing for sure England's EU position will be interesting.

Scotland is not a country in terms of international law. The UK is, and would continue to be following any possible Scottish succession.

Barroso: Independent Scotland to renegotiate EU terms

In a written parliamentary answer to a Scottish Labour MEP European Commission president Jose Barroso has confirmed an independent Scotland would need to renegotiate it’s EU membership terms. Existing treaties “would no longer apply”, he wrote, meaning Scotland would need to negotiate treaty opt-outs on euro, Schengen and budget rebate.

http://euobserver.com/tickers/118445

Scotland would have to negociate a new accession treaty, which would need to deal with the fact that new members are required to join the Euro, and Schengen among many other things. I think there is a reasonable prospect that membership of the Common Travel Area could be seen as a suitable alternative to Schengen, however I doubt the rest of the 28 would agree to a Schengen and a Euro opt out.

 

[clc]

Yet again the United Kingdom/England DO subsidise scotland massively, and without going to far off topic, the point needs to be made :

scotland accounts for 8.4% of the UK population, 8.3% of the UK's total output and 8.3% of the UK's non-oil tax revenues - but 9.2% of total UK public spending.

The scottish executives own figure for 2010 suggest that spending per person in Scotland was £11,370 against £10,320 for the wider UK. Therefore spending in Scotland was £1,030 - or 10% higher - per head of population than the UK average. I understand this has now grown to £1600 per head and an almost 15% gap!

Over the same period scotlands total non-oil tax revenues were around £42.7bn or £8,221 per head, which compares with the total public expenditure assigned to scotland of £59.2bn

Because of this scotland got £16.5bn more in public spending than it contributed the UK. This works out at a subsidy of around £3,150 per person (not adult - person!)

Even if you allow ALL of the much vaunted oil revenues that will save scotland (and even Mr Salmond only claims 90% of the revenue!) you get around 50bn as income - which equates to a subsidy "only" in the region of £2,100 per person!

(and scotland isn't a country - it has to most outsiders the status of a county)
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Because come the revolution i will make the rules

You are making the mistake of equating deficit with subsidy. Are you not aware that the UK has a bigger deficit than Scotland?

 

[DarloRich]

You are making the mistake of equating deficit with subsidy. Are you not aware that the UK has a bigger deficit than Scotland?

no i think you are - Scotland receive more public spending per person than the rest of the UK. That isn't a deficit - that is a subsidy!

 

[clc]

no i think you are - Scotland receive more public spending per person than the rest of the UK. That isn't a deficit - that is a subsidy!

Scotland also contributes more in tax per head than the rest if the UK.

What you describe as a subsidy is actually the portion of Scottish spending which is funded by Scotland's share of UK borrowing. So the money comes from the gilts markets not from benevolent English tax payers. Scotland is liable for a population share of UK debt so is paying its way. In fact, given that our deficit is proportionately smaller than UK as a whole but we are still allocated a full population share of the debt you could argue that Scotland is subsidising the rest of the UK.

 

[route:oxford]

The NIMBYS will go absolutely potty if a barrier does go up between the countrys - just think how they react to the odd windfarm.

A good 6 metre fence is bound to upset the environmentalists too as it would be likely to disturb the wildlife and break-up families of foxes, badgers, hedgehogs etc.

It's going to be a close call next October. I helped a family member shift some of their assets South of the border in August through the purchase of an Apartment in London. Just in time too with the way London property prices are leaping.

 

[Con]

The NIMBYS will go absolutely potty if a barrier does go up between the countrys - just think how they react to the odd windfarm.

A good 6 metre fence is bound to upset the environmentalists too as it would be likely to disturb the wildlife and break-up families of foxes, badgers, hedgehogs etc.

It's going to be a close call next October. I helped a family member shift some of their assets South of the border in August through the purchase of an Apartment in London. Just in time too with the way London property prices are leaping.

Scots leaning towards independence should be careful what they wish for. Google medical cards and Ireland.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Even if the vote is No, it may be of such a scale that "devo-max" will be negotiated.
Rail would then probably move nearer the top of the agenda as the more critical nationhood issues would not have to be resolved.
We would then get into ideological debates about subsidies and franchising.

 

[Tumbleweed]

I wish we could keep politics out of this site.

 

[VauxhallandI]

I wish we could keep politics out of this site.

Agreed. The daily Mail tripe gets boring

 

[tbtc]

A few points:

I voted "YES / YES" in 1998 (think it was about then), when entitled to a vote north of the border - still glad I did but would vote "NO" to full Independence today (not that I get a vote)

The EU will be wary of how they treat an independent Scotland, since it may encourage "breakaway" parts of France, Spain etc.

An independent Scotland wouldn't own its rolling stock, it would have to allow access to "non-state" train operators (EU rules etc), it certainly wouldn't be back to a BR style operation.

I think it'd have more of an impact upon HS2 - would Westminster have much incentive to build a high speed line from Manchester/ Leeds to the border (whether east coast or west coast)? Less of an impact upon everyday railways, electrification plans etc.

Would an independent Scotland have the same equality/ disability legislation? Do they want some Pacers come 2020?

I agree with Gareth Marston in that the bigger impact will be on a "UK" that will be more rightwing in future (without all of the Scottish Labour MPs), so get used to more Conservative government at Westminster.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Re Independence - it ain't gonna happen - "buttstradamus" will be voting yes safe in the knowledge the no's will prevail.

But how many others will do exactly the same- leading to a 'Yes' vote that no-one really wanted or expected!

Personally, I'd imagine that in the event of a 'Yes' vote (however unlikely) Scotland will be treated as an existing member by the EU and will have all the opt-outs that the UK has currently. However, the England/Scotland border will remain open. The fact that this open border does not in fact lead to the downfall of society on either side will eventually lead to the remaining UK government believing that they have nothing to fear from joining Schengen- a dispute with BAA over a perceived threat to Heathrow's status as a Continental Hub will eventually be the final straw leading to the UK joining Schengen along with Scotland, allowing international services from Glasgow-Manchester-Birmingham-Stratford International to start operating.

 

[Gareth Marston]

A few points:

I voted "YES / YES" in 1998 (think it was about then), when entitled to a vote north of the border - still glad I did but would vote "NO" to full Independence today (not that I get a vote)

The EU will be wary of how they treat an independent Scotland, since it may encourage "breakaway" parts of France, Spain etc.

An independent Scotland wouldn't own its rolling stock, it would have to allow access to "non-state" train operators (EU rules etc), it certainly wouldn't be back to a BR style operation.

I think it'd have more of an impact upon HS2 - would Westminster have much incentive to build a high speed line from Manchester/ Leeds to the border (whether east coast or west coast)? Less of an impact upon everyday railways, electrification plans etc.

Would an independent Scotland have the same equality/ disability legislation? Do they want some Pacers come 2020?

I agree with Gareth Marston in that the bigger impact will be on a "UK" that will be more rightwing in future (without all of the Scottish Labour MPs), so get used to more Conservative government at Westminster.

Though UKIP may split the right vote enough to prevent permanent conservative majority's plus one or two random anti hs2 chiltern MP's.

 

[34D]

What happens to scottish people who live in London, in the event of a "yes" vote?

 

[Con]

What happens to scottish people who live in London, in the event of a "yes" vote?

I imagine something like the Ireland Act 1949 would be enacted, where Irish citizens and products of Irish manufacture are not foreign to the United Kingdom.

 

[dysonsphere]

Knowing how awkward and anti English the SNP can be maybe a change of gauge at the border just to be damm awkward. 5 ft 3 in would be most awkward.

 

[St Rollox]

Knowing how awkward and anti English the SNP can be maybe a change of gauge at the border just to be damm awkward. 5 ft 3 in would be most awkward.

How do you explain English people being members of the SNP.

 

[class303]

How do you explain English people being members of the SNP.

name one? snp are a disgustingly bigoted party. Scotland will never bite the hand that feeds her.

 

[Shaggy]

How do you explain English people being members of the SNP.

Quite. Indeed I've found many of the most passionate about independence are indeed English members of the party.

The reality is the EU doesn't want countries to have these opt-outs. They want Schengen and the Euro to be integral parts of being an EU member. The only reason the UK has these opt-outs is the huge economic leverage we bring to the table. Sadly Scotland would have nowhere near this level of influence and it is difficult to see why the EU would allow a new entrant (the UK would still be a member - Scotland would by default be a new entrant) to have these opt-outs while enforcing the acceptance of the Euro etc on other new entrants.

 

[Chris M]

I'm pretty sure that an independent Scotland would have to adopt the Euro as soon as its economic conditions were right. In physical terms there is little practical difficulty in adopting a different currency.

Schengen is a different matter as there are lots of practical on-the-ground details that would need to be worked out and even if it were required for Scotland to join it couldn't happen on day 1. The practical issues mean that there are reasons for Scotland to remain outside Schengen until England (and for the same practical reasons, Wales) also joined. Whether those reasons outweigh the reasons for wanting Scotland too join is something that will have to be negotiated and I don't think the outcome is a foregone conclusion either way.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

What about the romantic reputation for marriages for runaway English young lovers at Gretna Green ?

 

[clc]

snp are a disgustingly bigoted party.

That's offensive to SNP voters and completely inaccurate.

 

[34D]

I imagine something like the Ireland Act 1949 would be enacted, where Irish citizens and products of Irish manufacture are not foreign to the United Kingdom.

So they wouldn't be obligated to return home?

Will such peoples still get a vote in the Scottish referendum?

Indeed, will English people currently living in Scotland get a vote?

 

[merlodlliw]

One figure noticeably absent from the tabloids (up here at least) is how much the workers get paid.

They are quick to castigate the Ineos Chairman for his billionaire lifestyle, but forget to mention the average workers salary at the plant is 55k - this revelation would be at odds with the "bash the poor" hype.

Around Grangemouth and Falkirk a 55K salary would be like winning the lottery for most workers.

As you are Scotsman I presume, in many ways this is like the print trade I worked in, the print unions never believed Murdoch would print the Sunday Times without £50K PA printers((that was 30 years ago) when he moved out of fleet street,
I spoke to a Unite SS down here last evening, whose remark was,they have taken on the wrong person this time, If I was getting £1K a week in a plant losing £10M a week,I would have done it different.

 

[rf_ioliver]

Participation in Schengen is compulsory for new states joining the EU. It didn't used to be, but I believe this changed with the 1999 Amsterdam Treaty. All new states joining the EU after this date are legally bound to implement Schengen.

A similar scenario occurs with the euro, where new member states are legally bound to join the eurozone, if they meet the criteria to do so.

Schengen has many "levels" of implementation. While countries are bound to join Schengen at some point, the time table and specific implementation is more or less up to the country. At some point in time the UK will have to join whether inside or outside of the EU, cf: Norway, Iceland, Switzerland.

http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/

If Scotland does become independent then there are a number of possibilities:

1. Full border checks, visa etc...this ain't going to happen. Ukraine tried something like this and it severely affected trade
2. Border checks between a Schengen and non-Schengen state, again I don't see this being any more than what it is at present
3. Present situation - free movement between UK and Scotland.

and I'm sure you can come up with more...

I think the biggest change you will see is increased border and police cooperation between Scotland and the EU as defined in Schengen, but probably no changes in the current free movement between UK, Scotland and the rest of EU, with border checks as they are now.

What could be interesting is if Scotland ever decides to put in place some of the emergency provisions as France and Italy have done for football matches etc and demand ID and passports at their borders...

t.

Ian

 

[SkinnyDave]

So they wouldn't be obligated to return home?

Will such peoples still get a vote in the Scottish referendum?

Indeed, will English people currently living in Scotland get a vote?

Yes anyone registered to vote in Scotland will get a vote including many English people voting yes, not an identity thing obviously it's Edinburgh v Westminster

Still experts on here going on about Schengrn etc I've already said as have representatives from EU and Scottish Government this is not the case. Scotland will be negotiating as an existing member.

Currency it's in best interest of England that Scotland keeps pound but I wouldn't mind either way.

Until the big fearty from Eton decides to grow a pair and debate with Salmond then everyone will get both sides, every part of the no campaign scare stories have been kicked into the long grass

Class 303 seriously lol? On both parts of your comment
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One figure noticeably absent from the tabloids (up here at least) is how much the workers get paid.

They are quick to castigate the Ineos Chairman for his billionaire lifestyle, but forget to mention the average workers salary at the plant is 55k - this revelation would be at odds with the "bash the poor" hype.

Around Grangemouth and Falkirk a 55K salary would be like winning the lottery for most workers.

As you are Scotsman I presume, in many ways this is like the print trade I worked in, the print unions never believed Murdoch would print the Sunday Times without £50K PA printers((that was 30 years ago) when he moved out of fleet street,
I spoke to a Unite SS down here last evening, whose remark was,they have taken on the wrong person this time, If I was getting £1K a week in a plant losing £10M a week,I would have done it different.

Great post

This is a watershed moment for unions and I'm about to join one

 

[broadgage]

If Scotland becomes independant it seems inevitable that they would adopt the Euro, and it seems very unlikely that England will adopt it.

Therefore at the very least we will face the extra complication of two currencies.
Internal Scottish fares would presumably be priced in Euros.
Fares within England would remain priced in Sterling.

Cross border tickets would presumably be available in either currency, with prices to be the same in real terms. Imagine the complications when the exchange rate alters !

 

[khib70]

name one? snp are a disgustingly bigoted party. Scotland will never bite the hand that feeds her.

The only bigotry around here is coming from you and your Little Englander pals.

If you actually knew anything at all about Scotland and the SNP you wouldn't expose your own bigotry by making totally inaccurate and uninformed statements like that.

Can you actually produce a shred of evidence to back up your assertion?

 

[Shaggy]

So they wouldn't be obligated to return home?

Will such peoples still get a vote in the Scottish referendum?

Indeed, will English people currently living in Scotland get a vote?

As a Scot living in England, I will not get to vote on the future of my British citizenship.

 

[thenorthern]

Never mind Independence if I remember correctly the SNP wanted to force all CrossCountry and East Coast trains running north of Edinburgh to terminate at Edinburgh to get people onto ScotRail Trains, I noticed that they didn't try and do that to the Caledonian Sleeper.