Northern possibly close to taking on extra EMUs

[anti-pacer]

If Northern had shiny new stock, maybe passenger numbers would go up. Look at the Airedale and Wharfedale lines out of Leeds - newer trains, 4 carriages (longer than the normal 2-3 that Northern operate) and generally busy.

How are you going to entice people out of their cars and onto the trains if what you get to travel on is a Pacer? I've heard moans and groans on a platform when a Pacer comes screeching in. They are simply not popular other than to a few enthusiasts or someone who sees the bigger picture (i.e. lines would have closed without them). To the ordinary passenger, they're awful, so many choose to opt for their cars instead. Can't blame them at all to be honest.

I would happily pay more to travel on a new train, providing it was clean and comfortable. I think most passengers would.

Also, Northern DO have an issue with cleanliness. When you get on a train and see someone's sandwich wrapper/box on the seat, you're hardly likely to want to sit down - again having a negative perception for the passenger. I know it's passengers who litter trains, but not all passengers do.

Public transport needs to be attractive, and if its not and there's another alternative (private transport), well then to 'Joe Public' it's a 'no brainer'.

 

[northwichcat]

I would happily pay more to travel on a new train, providing it was clean and comfortable. I think most passengers would.

Remember your area (the West Yorks PTE area) has the cheapest fares in the Northern franchise area. The Cumbria passengers may be less happy to pay more to get something other a Pacer considering they already pay more and get poorer stock than other Northern passengers.

 

[jon0844]

I agree that new stock would probably get more people using the train, and that's something for the TOC and the DfT to be aware of. It might replace the stock and suddenly find itself with a heavily congested service.

Sure, some people might then leave the railway again and go back to their car, so maybe it will work itself out.

I don't think you need a brand new plastic train (most likely having stacks of problems, as any new Bombardier train demonstrates) as some of the nicest train interiors are built on Mk3 carriages - namely the GNER-refurbished Mallards and FGW's work on its HSTs.

The planned work for the 319s would hopefully make them as good as any new train to the passenger and possibly even more reliable, with less to go wrong (some might argue that the refurb might add lots of new things to go wrong, however!).

If it wasn't for the fact that the 319s can't work through the core when the new Thameslink service is up and running, there was a way to refurbish them all without losing loads of service, and - oh - there were more of them in the first place, I doubt anyone 'down here' would have a problem with them staying in service here.

But they won't work where they are now for much longer, and so they're on the move. And I think it's great news that they're being given that overhaul when it must have been considered to just move them as-is to somewhere else.

 

[tbtc]

If Northern had shiny new stock, maybe passenger numbers would go up. Look at the Airedale and Wharfedale lines out of Leeds - newer trains, 4 carriages (longer than the normal 2-3 that Northern operate) and generally busy

Twenty years ago, if a Forum like this existed then it'd have been full of moans about "why should the Airedale and Wharfdale lines get clapped out 308s that London doesn't need any more"...

...then these old EMUs allowed extra capacity on the lines out of Leeds/ Bradford...

...passenger numbers grew to a point where new stock could be justified...

...new three coach 333s were ordered...

...passenger numbers continued to rise...

... a fourth coach was built for the 333s (later subsidised by those nice people at SYPTE).

Who's to say that something similar won't happen over the next decade (on the lines where people are complaining about "only" getting 319s)?

 

[HSTEd]

They money that would have to be spent on new stock can go on more electrification work instead.
With the money generated by increased traffic on the routes used to pay for more stock later.

 

[AndyW33]

When I left school, we got brand new trains on the West Anglia line. 317s they were! Wow. Replacing slammers.. and looking well futuristic. Well, roll on to today and they're still here! Sure, some have been replaced, but by no means all.

And of course the design wasn't actually new at all, having started life on the BedPan electric service, replaced by 319s with the Thameslink reopening, then moving to Bletchley for Birmingham-Northampton-Euston, replaced by 321s, quite apart from the ones delivered new to the GN lines.
Rather proves the point that as long as the units supplied are in good condition the passengers don't notice how old they are.

 

[jopsuk]

The simple situation is:
1. the current stock for Thameslink is not suitble/there's not enough of it for the future service requirements
2. Those future service requirements are based on cramming vast numbers of people onto those trains, not on giving commuters carriages with gold plated hot tubs throughout
3. Therefore the large fleet of Class 319s is going spare
4. They're far from life expired
5. As long as the job done is good, the refurbishment will almost certainly fool many into thinking they're getting new trains (until the pedant sat next to them corrects them)

 

[tbtc]

And of course the design wasn't actually new at all, having started life on the BedPan electric service, replaced by 319s with the Thameslink reopening, then moving to Bletchley for Birmingham-Northampton-Euston, replaced by 321s, quite apart from the ones delivered new to the GN lines.
Rather proves the point that as long as the units supplied are in good condition the passengers don't notice how old they are

Agreed.

Passenger numbers went up when 308s replaced Pacers on the Airedale/ Wharfdale routes - give people a better chance of a seat on a regular enough frequency and they will travel in larger numbers.

 

[northwichcat]

The simple situation is:
1. the current stock for Thameslink is not suitble/there's not enough of it for the future service requirements
2. Those future service requirements are based on cramming vast numbers of people onto those trains, not on giving commuters carriages with gold plated hot tubs throughout
3. Therefore the large fleet of Class 319s is going spare
4. They're far from life expired
5. As long as the job done is good, the refurbishment will almost certainly fool many into thinking they're getting new trains (until the pedant sat next to them corrects them)

The question is still why DfT think the 319s should go to North West routes given the Thameslink delays and future planned electrification programs as I mentioned yesterday: http://railforums.co.uk/showpost.php?p=1568061&postcount=289

 

[HSTEd]

Because the current pace of electrification leaves nowhere else for them to go.

(This is one of the downsides of the much vaunted "rolling" nature of the programme, instead of a fast-as-possible dash)

 

[Buttsy]

It is a valid point that the ordinary passenger considers that a refurb can be a 'new' train. A colleague commutes in from Basingstoke to Reading and was excited that that route was getting 'new' 3 car trains as this would alleviate overcrowding and he'd get a seat in the morning. The 'new' trains he referred to were the 1984 (?) build 150 3-car prototypes...

This says to me the 'man on the Clapham (sorry, Ashton) omnibus' won't give a monkeys as to how old it is so long as it is percieved to be 'better' than what they travel on at the moment.

 

[tbtc]

The question is still why DfT think the 319s should go to North West routes given the Thameslink delays and future planned electrification programs as I mentioned yesterday: http://railforums.co.uk/showpost.php?p=1568061&postcount=289

Where else is there for them?

The North West routes are going to need a large number of EMUs once everything is electrified (like the 319s), they don't need 110mph units (unlike the Thames Valley routes that some 319s were earmarked for), what else do you suggest?

The slower 315s freed up by Crossrail are apparently earmarked for the Valley Lines, the 360s freed up by Crossrail are a tiny number (five trains), the 319s are probably the best fit.

 

[northwichcat]

Because the current pace of electrification leaves nowhere else for them to go.

That statement doesn't make sense. The need for EMUs will increase at practically every timetable change starting with this December's timetable change. The new Thameslink stock will be available from the May 2015 timetable change subject to no further delays and won't be delivered in full until 2018. That's too late for Chat Moss* but exactly the right time for LM and Scotrail needing extra electric stock. If Thameslink gets delayed until the December 2015 timetable change then that would be the right time for FGW to get EMUs for Thames Valley.

* Without the ridiculously complicated Southern class 377 over-order and sub-lease to FCC to compensate.

 

[HSTEd]

That statement doesn't make sense. The need for EMUs will increase at practically every timetable change starting with this December's timetable change. The new Thameslink stock will be available from the May 2015 timetable change subject to no further delays and won't be delivered in full until 2018.

Yes, but it would be nice to have them all positioned in a few places rather than scattered to hell and gone all over the place.
Scotrail's entire fleet of diesel units could almost be replaced by the Class 319s.....

(That might be an idea... how about all the Class 319s going to Scotland and replacing all their older electrics? Probably politically impossible)

If Thameslink gets delayed until the December 2015 timetable change then that would be the right time for FGW to get EMUs for Thames Valley.

The Class 319s are probably almost worthless on Thames valley suburban routes. Remember that the GWML will effectively be a 2 track railway between Paddington and at-least Maidenhead (and probably Reading as I don't know if there is even a crossover planned at Maidenhead to allow access to the reliefs).

That means that you lose quite a significant amount of time covering most of it at 100mph instead of 125mph (its almost 40 miles?), potentially on order of five minutes or more.
Losing five minutes eats up effectively two paths in addition to the one the train starts off in, seriously degrading the capacity of the route.
110mph trains at least are pretty much required to get the capacity people want.

 

[northwichcat]

The Class 319s are probably almost worthless on Thames valley suburban routes. Remember that the GWML will effectively be a 2 track railway between Paddington and at-least Maidenhead (and probably Reading as I don't know if there is even a crossover planned at Maidenhead to allow access to the reliefs).

That means that you lose quite a significant amount of time covering most of it at 100mph instead of 125mph (its almost 40 miles?), potentially on order of five minutes or more.
Losing five minutes eats up effectively two paths in addition to the one the train starts off in, seriously degrading the capacity of the route.
110mph trains at least are pretty much required to get the capacity people want.

Even though the business case for Thames Valley electrification is based on using 319s until CP6 when 110mph are supposed to be looked at? People keep bringing up the Chat Moss electrification business case being based on 319s and ignore exactly the same point in relation to Thames Valley.

Don't forget the 319s to North West is likely to result in some carriages being scrapped due to the need for 6 car formations to allow services to/from Blackpool that are currently busy 4 car Sprinters to get additional capacity. The 3 and 4 car 377s that Southern have seem a better option to provide this and with Southern set to get new 5 car 377s and to sublease 4 car 377s to FCC, letting Northern take 377s would be cutting out the middle man.

 

[HSTEd]

The 3-car Southern 377s are probably going to end up as 313 replacements on Moorgate in the long term.
It might be cheaper just to clear the Blackpool route to 8-cars if you don't want to scrap/store vehicles.

And where are the 4-car 319s going to go in that case?
Southern apparently wants to get rid of its existing supply of 4-car units so I am not sure how its going to feel about new ones.

 

[northwichcat]

And where are the 4-car 319s going to go in that case?
Southern apparently wants to get rid of its existing supply of 4-car units so I am not sure how its going to feel about new ones.

So who's going to take on the Southern 4 car 100mph units in that case given you say Southern don't want them and FGW don't want 100mph units?

 

[HSTEd]

So who's going to take on the Southern 4 car 100mph units in that case given you say Southern don't want them and FGW don't want 100mph units?

There are the opportunities for 4-car units on the WAML and in other minor places that will suffice to swallow up this order (probably replace the last of the Class 315s)

 

[swt_passenger]

?
Southern apparently wants to get rid of its existing supply of 4-car units so I am not sure how its going to feel about new ones.

What's the evidence for that? Plenty services that currently operate as 12 cars or 8 cars are still going to be running, even with some routes transferred to the Thameslink part of the combined franchise.

I've never read anything official suggesting SN want to get rid of the four car fleet. It's more realistic to think that a load of them will replace the 442s, and some will go back to the various coastway services.

 

[Wolfie]

Why not ? Why not also supplement these stocks with "cascaded" stocks from other areas once these other areas have received their new stock.

Perhaps you will now understand the animosity to certain "favoured" areas by those deemed to be "second-class" areas...

The words "goose" and "gander" seem to ring extremely loud bells in these "second-class" areas.

The anti-Southern whinges get VERY tedious given that if you look at the tax take from London and the South East the reality is that the North is MASSIVELY subsidised. Hey, one area is currently the dynamo of the economy - why not starve that very same area of investment - genius idea - NOT! Cascaded rolling strock is adequate to meet the needs of Northern - the growth in the economy and population in the South East means that enhanced services are truthfully already overdue!

 

[Rational Plan]

I dont think any Northern person wants Crossrail or Thameslink cancelled, they just want a matching per capita level of investment, you do however get lots of people arguing that HS2 should be cancelled because its not in London and the money spent on Crossrail 2 instead.

The problem those areas don't deserve the same level of spending on public transport. London is a mega city in the centre of a densely populated region, with very high commuter flows. London decided not demolish most of its inner city and inner suburbs to build motorways in the 60''s and 70's.

These Northern cities are too small to require the same level of investment. They also have good road networks. That is not to say they should have no investment, it's just not realistic to expect the same spending per head.

 

[northwichcat]

The anti-Southern whinges get VERY tedious given that if you look at the tax take from London and the South East the reality is that the North is MASSIVELY subsidised. Hey, one area is currently the dynamo of the economy - why not starve that very same area of investment - genius idea - NOT! Cascaded rolling strock is adequate to meet the needs of Northern - the growth in the economy and population in the South East means that enhanced services are truthfully already overdue!

Something to consider:

* Greater London has 12.9% of the British population living there and the North West has 11.2% of the British population living there.
* Yorkshire has 8.4% of the British population living there. Scotland also has 8.4% of the British population living there.
* Thameslink is getting £1.8 billion investment. The Northern Hub (which is covering both the North West and Yorkshire as well as stretching in to the North East) is getting £500 million.
* Scotland was given a budget of £200 million for new electric trains. However, they'll actually spend £430 million in total: http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/transport/trains-to-cost-230m-extra.13404527

Look at these things in comparison. Scotland spends the equivalent of 86% of the budget for the whole Northern Hub just on a new fleet of electric trains, despite having a fraction of the population of the North of England, while the Northern Hub gets 27% of the budget of Thameslink.

Now I accept London gets more visitors than other areas and has higher than average public transport use and lower than average car use. However, I think a Northern Hub budget of £1 billion could be justified considering budgets and what's been spent elsewhere.

In terms of overdue both the Ordsall Chord and Thameslink are projects which have been put back and put back.

 

[jon0844]

Thameslink will be almost 20 years late, and Crossrail was certainly talked about for a long time and is also still far from completion.

It's not just other places that have allowed things to fall behind due to lack of investment over the years. Arguably there's now a lot of investment going in for places well outside the south east.

 

[WatcherZero]

Also should be noted the North of England produces 25% of English GVA, same as London and more than double the Midlands, the North West has the third highest regional GVA in the UK. A fifth of the basic wage in London, £1.10 per hour, simply covers the extra costs of living there compared to elsewhere in the country from over congested housing, higher food and transport prices, etc..

I.e. that people are so crammed in its actually hurting the economy and making London uncompetive by requiring the consumption of extra resources.

 

[jon0844]

That's one reason I moved out of London exactly ten years ago this month. Yes, it meant a higher cost of travel but it means I enjoy living in a house with a garden and some (although for how much longer I don't know) countryside to enjoy.

 

[D365]

The 3-car Southern 377s are probably going to end up as 313 replacements on Moorgate in the long term.

No, there's hardly enough of them to serve as replacement. When most of the Welwyn services are transferred to Thameslink, there are plans to increase service frequency on the Hertford Loop as well as the more ambiguous idea to permanently marshal 313s into 6-car units for the last 5-15 years of their life, removing the inside cabs of course. Any of which will require at least some of the Southern units back.

Also, a brand-new fleet coupled with transfer to LO could have a positive impact on ridership, maybe.

And where are the 4-car 319s going to go in that case?
Southern apparently wants to get rid of its existing supply of 4-car units so I am not sure how its going to feel about new ones.

Nope. No chance in hell. Southeastern could take some though, as apparently they might be after additional stock. GW and MML 'CorPan' can go for 110mph '377/8' fleets.

For replacing the GN 313s and Southern 442s, I can see a 6-car Desiro City variant for each, maybe.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The anti-Southern whinges get VERY tedious given that if you look at the tax take from London and the South East the reality is that the North is MASSIVELY subsidised. Hey, one area is currently the dynamo of the economy - why not starve that very same area of investment - genius idea - NOT! Cascaded rolling strock is adequate to meet the needs of Northern - the growth in the economy and population in the South East means that enhanced services are truthfully already overdue!

If you had carried on reading the postings upon this thread, you would have read my posting # 299 on this thread that made reference to the playing of Devils Advocate.

 

[D365]

If you had carried on reading the postings upon this thread, you would have read my posting # 299 on this thread that made reference to the playing of Devils Advocate.

I hope you have taken note of the messages I've sent your way

 

[Wolfie]

If you had carried on reading the postings upon this thread, you would have read my posting # 299 on this thread that made reference to the playing of Devils Advocate.

That is true. However there were others posting similar things who had no such excuse (the class 140 family fanclub for one!).....

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I hope you have taken note of the messages I've sent your way

I most certainly have noted what you say and am pleased that you did read that certain posting to which I alluded.