Few details of the TPE Scotland impact on Bolton, and impact of the additional 185 Liverpool-Newcastle services to share, tbh these details would do well in several different threads but I only have the energy to type them once.
Bolton
Firstly Northern has tried and failed to source additional diesel units to strengthen the Bolton corridor, its come up with a plan to shift in a little extra capacity from May 2014 through timetable changes and rearranging diagrams from the May 2014 timetable change, its limited in the formations it can use for the strengthening because of platform length limitations elsewhere limiting the potential unit combinations. This should add enough capacity to mitigate the final switchover of Bolton to Wigan services in May 2014 though it wont be enough to cover the initial Dec 13 switches.
In the 3 hour morning peak on the Bolton corridor from Dec 2013 there will be 4,201 seats, -362 or 8% reduction rising to 4,171 a 9% reduction by May 2014. There is a similar reduction percentage in the high peak.
In the 3 hour evening peak from Dec 2013 there will be a 5,724 -181 3% reduction rising to 9% from mid feb 2014 and 13% from May 2014. High peak services will be unaffected with initially a 10% increase in capacity from Dec 2013 falling to 0% from mid Feb 2014 onwards.
From Manchester to Preston via Wigan there will initially be 362 more seats in the morning peak a 31% increase rising to 36% from mid feb 2014, in the high peak there will be a 45% increase from Dec 2013 rising to 52% from mid feb.
In the evening peak there will be a 13% increase from Dec, rising to 15% in mid feb and 31% from May 2014, in the evening high peak there will be no change because the 17:00 Manchester Airport to Glasgow wont call at Wigan because TPE anticipates it would be otherwise packed with Wigan passengers not leaving enough room for Scottish passengers.
All Friday and Sunday services will be formed of either a double 185 or a double 350.
The effect the TPE service change will have on Manchester Victoria to Wigan Wallgate via Bolton passengers is currently unknown, they dont know how many will switch to using Piccadilly to North Western or how many new passengers would be attracted by the new service and decreased journey times.
The service strengthenings Northern will put on to tackle the Bolton reductions are:
New 05:40 Blackpool – Manchester replacing the TPE 05:39 Blackpool to Manchester Airport
17:23 from Preston to Hazel Grove extended to cover the previous TPE 17:45 from Preston via Bolton
15:33 Hazel Grove – Preston extended to cover the previous 16:00 Manchester Airport to Edinburgh
New 06:50 Manchester - Preston to cover the previous 07:25 Manchester Airport to Edinburgh via Bolton
Transpennine
From May 2014 there will be a fifth hourly TPE train between Manchester and Leeds including the Liverpool to Newcastle service being diverted via Victoria. This is a 22% increase in services and a 34% increase in seat capacity. Anticipated time savings are
Manchester - Liverpool 46 minutes reduced to 31 a 15 min saving
Manchester - Leeds 55 minutes reduced to 48 a 7 min saving
Liverpool - Leeds 107 minutes reduced to 82 a 25 min saving
Liverpool - Newcastle 210 minutes reduced to 173 a 37 min saving
With the exception of the Manchester – Rochdale and West Yorkshire and Manchester – Ashton – Stalybridge and Huddersfield corridors Northern has managed to fit in these extra services with only minor timetable and clockface adjustments though origin and destination terminal may change. This process is still ongoing and should be finished in October.
The positives from the timetable change are that the Manchester Victoria to Huddersfield service will be linked to the existing Blackpool to Manchester to give a through service. The Huddersfield service to Victoria will be linked through to Wigan Wallgate (Is that the first time a Wallgate service will cross the Pennines in modern times even if it is one way?). Improved connectivity between Ashton, Salford and Stalybridge and the Liverpool-Newcastle service will enjoy good connection times at Victoria including a 25 minute time saving from Ashton to Liverpool from 1hr25 to 55m.
The main issue identified by TfGM is that the Newcastle to Liverpool service takes the path used by the recent extension of Liverpool-Victoria services to Stalybridge funded by TfGM and theres no alternate path to continue it west of Victoria, reducing Victoria-Stalybridge frequency back down to 2tph from 3tph.
All these connections by Northern will form part of the base timetable and will not require additional PTE subsidy. Four options have been drawn up on how to address the frequency reduction between Victoria and Stalybridge though no final decision has yet been made.
Option 1: Continue the Liverpool-Manchester local service through to Stalybridge. As the existing Stalybridge to Kirby service enjoys good Stalybridge to Salford passenger numbers and revenue and they both arrive at the same time its prefered for the Kirby connection to continue.
Option 2: Extend Southport-Manchester service to Stalybridge. Northern was asked to investigate this option and found that there was insufficent dwell time at Victoria to provide a reliable service, as the Southport line already has pretty poor punctuality it was thought this might make a bad service even worse.
Option 3: Have the TPE services call at Ashton or Stalybridge. TPE was asked to consider this and put forward several concerns. That it wouldnt attract enough passengers, that it would slow the service, that it might introduce delays, that it could only call at one not both, that TPE passengers could already change for Stalybridget at Victoria and finally that it might attract too many short distance passengers to a long distance service.
Option 4: Manchester Victoria-Ashton/Stalybridge shuttle. When asked to investigate continuing services westwards from Victoria to Stalybridge Northern was unable to find a path for an existing service however they suggest a new shuttle service that could run between the two but be unable to continue east of Victoria. This would be more expensive than a addon to an existing service as it would require a additional crew and set as well as generating unnecsary mileage. The connection times would also be worse than the existing service. Northern is unable to guarentee that it would have a free train crew and be able to source a unit to operate the service from May 2014.
Based on the above option 4 is the only workable option however with the costs involved and poor connections it would have to be extremely good value for money to justify subsidising it. Northern and TfGM will continue to work together to work up a price for the service though they arent confident they will choose to take up the option.
Calder Valley
As you may recall Northern was proposing to drop station calls from the line to accomdate the extra TPE service. Its not a very popular plan among users and local politicians. Northern have therefore bowed to pressure and adjusted their proposal introducing a skip-stop service. Its virtually a complete recast of the timetable for services on the line but does preserve if not increase services with the exception of Moston and some peak calls at Castleton. Its a big improvement for Littleborough and Smithy Bridge who would go from 20/40 splits to a 2tph even split.
Smithy Bridge and Littleborough would enjoy a hourly service through Salford and on to Wigan via Atherton until early evening however apart from a single train in the morning and evening peaks lose the direct connections to Rochdale, Castleton, Mills Hill and Bolton.
The original proposals there would no longer be through trains from Mills Hill, Castleton, Smithy Bridge and Littleborough to Halifax and Bradford forcing a change in Todmorden. TfGM objected particuarly about the loss of peak trains and Northern as accomdated the objection with add additional calls at Smithy Bridge, Walsden and Littleborough for commuter flows to and from Bradford. It is proposed that the 06:16 and 07:16 from Manchester Victoria will depart at 06:12 and 07:12, and call at all three stations, providing arrivals into Bradford at 07:20 and 08:20. The 16:51 and 17:51 from Leeds (17:14 and 18:14 from Bradford Interchange) will also call at all three stations.
Todmorden
The Todmorden Curve will be completed in February, Lancashire CC has agreed to TfGM request that the new Blackburn, Accrington, Burnley, Manchester via Todmorden service will call at Littleborough offpeak however there wont be any DMU available to operate these extra services through to Blackburn until Dec 2014. So from May 2014 until Dec 2014 as an interim measure the Kirkby-Wigan-Rochdale service will be extended to Todmorden and then reverse on the curve, in addition the two evening Victoria-Rochdale services will be extended to Todmorden. From Dec 2014 the Manchester-Todmorden service would be extended to Blackburn though it isnt clear if that would continue as an extension of Wigan/Kirkby-Rochdale or an entirely new service between Manchester and Blackburn.
(Sorry if I made any typos, I dont know the East lancashire area that well)
