DMU cascades and Micro fleets

[Rhydgaled]

The Cheltenham service will be covered by 175's, remember that they won't be going west of Cardiff once the wires up this frees up about 6 of them each day.

That's not an ideal route for them though, compared to permenantly coupling the 6 to other 175s to make the Manchester services a decent length. If the ATW Cheltenhams do become 175s the route will be entirely backwards, with 170s on the long-distance fast services (Nottinghams) and 175s on the Cardiff - Cheltenham stoppers. The other way around would be much more suitable.

 

[tbtc]

Why not give Cardiff - Cheltenham to XC, since they run the other service on that line?

Sadly there's not sufficient capacity through Longbridge etc to make Nottingham - Cardiff half hourly (with one service stopping at the smaller stations west of Gloucester).

 

[Gareth Marston]

That's not an ideal route for them though, compared to permenantly coupling the 6 to other 175s to make the Manchester services a decent length. If the ATW Cheltenhams do become 175s the route will be entirely backwards, with 170s on the long-distance fast services (Nottinghams) and 175s on the Cardiff - Cheltenham stoppers. The other way around would be much more suitable.

But that's how it's panning out you have to work with what you have the rolling programme of electrification will throw this sort of thing up all over.

 

[Class172]

Sadly there's not sufficient capacity through Longbridge etc to make Nottingham - Cardiff half hourly (with one service stopping at the smaller stations west of Gloucester).

[Fantasy]
Run the second train an hour to join on with the proposed LM Birmingham-Worcester service.
[/Fantasy]

 

[Rhydgaled]

But that's how it's panning out you have to work with what you have the rolling programme of electrification will throw this sort of thing up all over.

Except that, in this case, it is easily solved by giving it to the GW franchise to be run using 165s/166s (provided they can be easily cleared for the route). Alternatively give it to XC, to be run by 170s, as tbtc suggested above, and if Virgin gets their new EMUs to replace the 221s XC can have the additional 221s to replace the 170s on the Cardiff - Nottingham.

 

[edwin_m]

Except that, in this case, it is easily solved by giving it to the GW franchise to be run using 165s/166s (provided they can be easily cleared for the route). Alternatively give it to XC, to be run by 170s, as tbtc suggested above, and if Virgin gets their new EMUs to replace the 221s XC can have the additional 221s to replace the 170s on the Cardiff - Nottingham.

Wouldn't that just create a micro-fleet of 170s?

 

[D365]

Wouldn't that just create a micro-fleet of 170s?

Yeah, and what about Birmingham-Stansted? Electrification of the complete line would be great but is hardly guaranteed...

 

[WatcherZero]

Did you see TfL trying to powergrab again? made a submission to the London Airports Commision last week that it should take over the running of Gatwick and Stansted rail services and bring them in to the Oystercard network. MAG apparently also said if they could shave the 45 minute travel time to Stansted down to 30 minutes it would instantly boost airport usage by 1.5m per annum.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Wouldn't that just create a micro-fleet of 170s?

Oh yeah, so it would. The FirstGW suggestion probably works best then, or cascade the 170s from XC to LM and have them extend some trains down to Cardiff to cover the Cheltenham - Cardiff stoppers.

Yeah, and what about Birmingham-Stansted? Electrification of the complete line would be great but is hardly guaranteed...

221s on that too perhaps. Is it a local stopping type service or more a regional express run like the Cardiff - Nottingham?

 

[jopsuk]

Pretty much a regional express. Though I'm not sure if the bay platform at Stansted can take a four car Super Voyager, let alone a five car one- and running diesels into the main part of the station is less than ideal, both from platform occupation and fumes.

 

[D365]

Stansted P2 has been extended for 4x23m, electric-only P1 and P3 have been extended into the airport undercroft (around the short-stay 'lobby') for 16x20m. If Felixstowe/Ely-Birmingham can be fully electrified in CP6, I reckon 170s will keep at the job well until then.

 

[158722]

Given the dire over-crowding on the Gospel Oak-Barking line and no immediate solution to address this (electrification, if it happens, is a good few years away and no-one is going to order more DMUs for it!), then I would suggest a deal in which TfL and the DfT under-write the refurbishment of another rake of Mk3s/DVT plus possibly the Blue/Grey commuter set of Mk3s for Chiltern. This would allow the 4 172/0s to move to LOROL, permitting every other Gospel Oak train to be 4-cars, thus buying a bit of time in terms of capacity until it is wired, whilst Chiltern operate more Mk3 sets to Birmingham, allowing a cascade of 168s and 165s to free up the 3 172 diagrams.

In addition, once Liverpool-Manchester/Wigan gets electrified towards the end of 2014, Northern will have a little more flexibility in their DMU fleet. So, 8 150s go off to FGW, with their 8 143s replaced directly at Exeter and concentrated at ATW. In turn, ATW give up their 8 153s, with the 143s replacing 150/2s on the Valleys which then replace the 153s elsewhere and which go back to Northern. Northern essentially loose 4 2-car units, but as around 10 will be displaced by EMUs, they still have a net gain.

Alternatively or in addition, Northern could swap 5 156s directly with Anglia, whose 5 153s head north. Anglia loose a micro-fleet, gain some badly needed extra coaches, although again Northern loose a little of their extra capacity gained through the spreading electrification.

Both of these shuffles remove small fleets and start concentrating the 153s with fewer operators, which makes sense in light of the 2020 DDA requirements, where I think the only way that a business case for making the 153s compliant will be to reform them as 2-car units (or even 28 3-car units with the 155s added in the mix!) with only one DDA loo per set.

 

[D365]

You are aware that Goblin is confirmed for electrified, by about 2016. I don't think the 172/1s will be moving to LO; nor any other diesels. The Cardiff Valley lines are also to be electrified this decade. Wales will want to be rid of their Pacers; at a minimum, some 150s will be kept. But your 153 reformation reshuffle seems pretty good.

 

[northwichcat]

Alternatively or in addition, Northern could swap 5 156s directly with Anglia, whose 5 153s head north. Anglia loose a micro-fleet, gain some badly needed extra coaches, although again Northern loose a little of their extra capacity gained through the spreading electrification.

Remember in the short term additional electric carriages are supposed to add to the Northern, TPE and FGW fleets in lieu of the DMU order that never happened, which was supposed to provide the capacity it was anticipated would be required by December 2012. Other franchises like the Anglia one have at least got all the extra capacity they were promised, even if some services are still overcrowded.

 

[158722]

You are aware that Goblin is confirmed for electrified, by about 2016. I don't think the 172/1s will be moving to LO; nor any other diesels. The Cardiff Valley lines are also to be electrified this decade. Wales will want to be rid of their Pacers; at a minimum, some 150s will be kept. But your 153 reformation reshuffle seems pretty good.

I was under the impression that it wasn't rock solid 100% guarenteed, given doubts about the works required on a few complicated sections, but I hope it does go ahead. The Goblin has a dire lack of capacity NOW, 2016 is three years off, how else can things be improved?

My suggestions are things which can be done in the next 12-18 months, based on the electrification projects underway, with the north-west schemes creating a bit of spare capacity which could either be absorbed by Northern (who desparately need it) or spread around other operators.

Quite agree that Wales (and everyone else!) will be wanting shot of their Pacers, but that will only happen when the Valleys are wired and thats a good few years away yet.

The other micro-fleets to sort out are LM's 3 150s and 8 153s. I would suggest that these will only be replaced when Walsall-Rugeley TV and possibly Coventry-Nuneaton get wired. With reduced DMUs diagrams, this should free up enough 170s to replace both fleets, although the Bedford-Bletchley line will need a few platform extensions to allow 2-car 170s to be used vice the 150/1 and 153 used now. The 150/1s and 153s could then head off to FGW or Northern, thus concantrating the 153s with just three operators - FGW, EMT and Northern, if my other shuffles took place.

 

[Rhydgaled]

ATW give up their 8 153s, with the 143s replacing 150/2s on the Valleys which then replace the 153s elsewhere and which go back to Northern.

When the ValleyLines are electrified, it will be 153s/156s/155s that we need in Wales. You could count the number of diagrams where a 150 would be more suitable than a 156, 155 or pair of 153s on the fingers of one hand (Wrexham - Bidston and the Crewe-Shrewsbury/Chester shuttles are about it). Anyone want to swap 36 150s and 8 153s for a fleet of 156s? Or, we keep the 153s and swap the 150s for more 153s.

I do wonder whether a few of the 143s would be useful for trial services opening freight lines in the Swansea area to passenger services.

 

[anthony263]

A peak hour Swansea - Llandeilo service perhaps combined with a 2 hourly heart of wales line service giving a hourly frequency between Swansea and Llandeilo.

There is the demand you only have to see the traffic coming into Swansea in the peaks from the Pontardulais and Ammanford area's

 

[The Ham]

I do wonder whether a few of the 143s would be useful for trial services opening freight lines in the Swansea area to passenger services.

...or any other similar service (i.e. Hythe - Southampton).

(that may also stop quite so many complaints about the South East only ever getting new trains if they were still running pacers post 2020!)

 

[Chrisgr31]

The other advantage of end gangways is that when you are running services longer than the platforms which they call at then it is fairly easy to use SDO. Now I am aware that this isn't too much of a problem for trains with up to 6 coaches, but it could start being more of a problem as time goes on and train lengths need to increase.

Potentially this is already an issue on the Uckfield Line. Most of the intermediate stations between Uckfield and Hurst Green take 5 car train, Crowborough is the exception taking 6.

The Class 171s come in options of 2 or 4 coaches. There are a couple of services that run as 8 coach trains. Those trains have to be made up of 2 four coach trains as the 2,4,2 or 2, 2, 4 would result in passengers being unable to alight from the trains.

There is a suggestion in Network Rails reports that 10 coach trains should be running on the Uckfield line by 2015. They won't be much use as the passengers won't be able to use the extra carriages!

 

[158722]

When the ValleyLines are electrified, it will be 153s/156s/155s that we need in Wales. You could count the number of diagrams where a 150 would be more suitable than a 156, 155 or pair of 153s on the fingers of one hand (Wrexham - Bidston and the Crewe-Shrewsbury/Chester shuttles are about it). Anyone want to swap 36 150s and 8 153s for a fleet of 156s? Or, we keep the 153s and swap the 150s for more 153s.

I do wonder whether a few of the 143s would be useful for trial services opening freight lines in the Swansea area to passenger services.

Totally agree, again my suggestion was only based on what could be shuffled around in the next 12-18 months - the short-term benefit for Wales being an extra 8 coaches and one less class of unit to maintain. Longer term up to 2019, with wiring in the Valleys and North-west, one could hope that Wales could end up with just a residual fleet of 150s, some extra 158s and the 175s in terms of DMUs.
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Potentially this is already an issue on the Uckfield Line. Most of the intermediate stations between Uckfield and Hurst Green take 5 car train, Crowborough is the exception taking 6.

The Class 171s come in options of 2 or 4 coaches. There are a couple of services that run as 8 coach trains. Those trains have to be made up of 2 four coach trains as the 2,4,2 or 2, 2, 4 would result in passengers being unable to alight from the trains.

There is a suggestion in Network Rails reports that 10 coach trains should be running on the Uckfield line by 2015. They won't be much use as the passengers won't be able to use the extra carriages!

I am still surprised that, despite it being against current logic of starting to replace 3rd rail electrification elsewhere, that the Uckfield line and Ashford-Ore/Hastings have not been considered for electrification, removing the last diesel islands from South East/South Central. Only 50 route miles between them! An extra 8-10 377/6s on top of the current builds underway, allowing a cascade of 377/1/3/4s to cover these lines with the displaced 171s converted to 170 spec - 44 extra 170 vehicles would be made very welcome at FGW for example.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Totally agree, again my suggestion was only based on what could be shuffled around in the next 12-18 months - the short-term benefit for Wales being an extra 8 coaches and one less class of unit to maintain.

Short-term, I guess that sounds alright.

Longer term up to 2019, with wiring in the Valleys and North-west, one could hope that Wales could end up with just a residual fleet of 150s, some extra 158s and the 175s in terms of DMUs.

That's what I'm afraid of.

Yes 175s and extra 158s but the third type of DMU for Wales in the longer term needs to be 156, 155 or 153, NOT class 150s.

 

[Manchester77]

Technically if ATW couple their 153s with the small cabs at the coupled end they've got themselves 155s

150s have proven with FGW that give the right interior they can work comfortably on longer distance services. However obviously super sprinters would be more desirable. I'd imagine that with all the cascades ATW might acquire a few extra 158s to strengthen their services. Post TPE electrification northern could take on some 185s for some of their hilly routes such as the Buxton Line which would release further 150s&156s to where needed. People have spoken also of the need for additional EMUs for XC Manchester - Bournemouth however you could kill two birds with one stone here: if VT do give up their 221s like they said they want to then some can come to XC for capacity enhancements as well as for project Thor! That way they're bimodal and an entirely new micro fleet for XC isn't created

 

[paul1609]

Totally agree, again my suggestion was only based on what could be shuffled around in the next 12-18 months - the short-term benefit for Wales being an extra 8 coaches and one less class of unit to maintain. Longer term up to 2019, with wiring in the Valleys and North-west, one could hope that Wales could end up with just a residual fleet of 150s, some extra 158s and the 175s in terms of DMUs.
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I am still surprised that, despite it being against current logic of starting to replace 3rd rail electrification elsewhere, that the Uckfield line and Ashford-Ore/Hastings have not been considered for electrification, removing the last diesel islands from South East/South Central. Only 50 route miles between them! An extra 8-10 377/6s on top of the current builds underway, allowing a cascade of 377/1/3/4s to cover these lines with the displaced 171s converted to 170 spec - 44 extra 170 vehicles would be made very welcome at FGW for example.

Marshlink electrification has been considered but it works out extremely expensive given several problems with
the line and the current passenger levels. Its more likely that Southern will get more units from another operator than giving them up in the near future.

 

[158722]

Short-term, I guess that sounds alright.

That's what I'm afraid of.

Yes 175s and extra 158s but the third type of DMU for Wales in the longer term needs to be 156, 155 or 153, NOT class 150s.

Your problem being as to where all the 153/155s or 156s are going to come from. The principal casualty of all of the electrification schemes will be the 140 Pacers (assuming none are made DDA compliant), which is an awful lot of stock to be removed from service via the myriad of cascades we are discussing. Plus, as has been mentioned, the only way I think that the 153s will survive the DDA requirements is if they are morphed back into 155s of 2 or 3 car sets with one DDA loo per set, thus again reducing the number of DMU sets available.

I do agree that 156s or revamped 153/155 combos would be better deployed on the more semi/rural Welsh lines than 150s, which in turn would be better suited to the remaining diesel Northern semi/urban routes around the north-west or indeed north-east.

 

[anthony263]

How about sending some of ATW's class 150's from teh Cardiff Valleys to Northern in exchange for their class 156's once the Valleys are wired. Then again I think northerns class 156's will need a good refubishment

 

[northwichcat]

How about sending some of ATW's class 150's from teh Cardiff Valleys to Northern in exchange for their class 156's once the Valleys are wired. Then again I think northerns class 156's will need a good refubishment

The ex-FNW 156s (which have the same type of seats as the ATW 158s used to have) have had seat covers replaced and new carpets in the past few years. Although, it'll be the tatty ex-ATN ones they'd most like to give up (as EMT found out when they got 4 from Northern.)

ATW have 36 x 150s compared to Northern's 42 x 156s so the numbers don't quite add up unless you're proposing 36 x 150s and 6 x 158s for the 42 x 156s. Although, even then I'm not sure putting 150s with 2+2 seating on lines like the Southport and Buxton lines in place of higher capacity Sprinters.

I think FGW would be a better destination for the ATW 150s, given they already have 150s with lower capacity seating plans, unless the 36 x ATN 150s are reformed in to 3 car 150/9 style formations and then each 3 car formation could directly replace a 2 car Northern 156 formation. Although, again the numbers don't add up.

 

[anthony263]

It depends really on how many dmu's are required after 2018 by the wales and borders franchise especially if the Manchester - south wales services are cut back to Cardiff and atw get additional class 158's to operate the Cardiff - Cheltenham and other longer disstance disel services.

services from west wales are likely to only run to Swansea so the following would need something like a class 155/156:

Swansea - Milford Haven
Swansea - Pembroke Dock (Currently requires 3 units)
Swansea - Fishguard Harbour
Swansea - Shrewsbury (Uses about 3 units currently which will increase if trains are increased in frequency and some are extended to Crewe)

Chester - Crewe shuttle (could be worked by a class 158/175)
Blaenau Festiniog - Llandudno (Currently uses 1 unit)

Wrexham Central - Bidston - This I will hope will transfer to the Merseyrail franchise if the route is electrified which should release two units)

 

[northwichcat]

The ones towards the bottom of your list sound like routes which would a suit a Pacer more than some of the Northern routes that actually get Pacers. Indeed, when First North Western had the bottom 3 they did see Pacers operating them.

You've also missed off the Shrewsbury to Crewe stopper, another route where a Pacer would be more suited compared to the Northern routes which see Pacers. That route could go to LM but then they'd probably be adding to their small Sprinter fleet, rather than getting rid of it.

Short of reforming the Regional Railways North West franchise maybe the best thing would be for a shared fleet so the Wales and Border franchise can borrow 150s from Northern for Borderlands, Conwy Valley and Crewe-Chester shuttle.

 

[paul1609]

or group all the low yield high subsidy TOCs into one TOC called provincial railways?

 

[Rhydgaled]

ATW have 36 x 150s compared to Northern's 42 x 156s so the numbers don't quite add up unless you're proposing 36 x 150s and 6 x 158s for the 42 x 156s. Although, even then I'm not sure putting 150s with 2+2 seating on lines like the Southport and Buxton lines in place of higher capacity Sprinters.

I don't think Wales will need as many as 42 156s though.

Some (gu)estimates I just came up with, assuming 2-car units on every train (no strengthening):

• Swansea - Carmarthen/Fishguard/Pembroke/Milford - 8 class 155/156 diagrams (one is a Swansea - Carmarthen shuttle for which a 150 would be suitable, but it isn't worth the hassle so use a 155/156 anyway)
• Cardiff - Milford/Carmarthen (If you want to give Milford Haven an hourly service and restore the present through frequency to Cardiff (1tph to Carmarthen, 0.5tph to Milford)) 5 class 158 diagrams.
• Crewe - Swansea (HOWL) 5 or 6 class 155/156 diagrams (I haven't been able to work out a good timetable, the main stations (Ammanford, Builth Road and the 5 passing loops) should have a much more frequent service in my opinion (but the others should be 4 trains a day), so this is a wild guess based on stopping at all stations every 2 hours)

I think Blaenau Ffestiniog - Llandudno and Wrexham - Bidston are 1 unit each at the moment. If we are generous and give the Blaenau branch a better service (with 2 units) and assume the higher figure for HOWL the total requirement for non-express DMUs is 17 diagrams. At 80% availability that's somewhere between 21 and 22 units.

Crewe - Chester I think should be combined with north Wales coast services and see 158s or 175s.

So, Wales can give away 36 class 150s, some Pacers and 4 class 155s (8 153s) in exchange for:

• 21x Class 156 (or 21x class 155 or 42x class 153) and
• Anything from 11x class 158 to 15x class 158

Giving Wrexham-Bidston to Mersyrail or Northern would be a good idea and reduce the Class 156/155 requirement by one unit.

You've also missed off the Shrewsbury to Crewe stopper, another route where a Pacer would be more suited compared to the Northern routes which see Pacers. That route could go to LM but then they'd probably be adding to their small Sprinter fleet, rather than getting rid of it.

I've incorporated that into the HOWL service. That said, if Wales is going down the 155/153 route rather than 156s you could swap some of ATW's 150s for LM's 153s, so at least LM would then only have 150s and not 153s as well.

Short of reforming the Regional Railways North West franchise maybe the best thing would be for a shared fleet so the Wales and Border franchise can borrow 150s from Northern for Borderlands, Conwy Valley and Crewe-Chester shuttle.

Borrowing stock from Northern sounds like a good way of managing Wrexham - Bidston, can it be done?