Population Growth and Infrastructure

[Northern_Light]

Was having a browse through the latest Scottish population stats and noticed that all the council areas in the North of the country (Dundee City, Angus, Aberdeenshire, Aberdeen City, Moray and Highland) had all exceeded their growth projections over the last 2 years. Highland has met its target for 2015, Moray for 2020 and Angus has more people now than has been predicted for 2035!

Now I know that for the most part that Northern Scotland is for the most part rural in nature. I also understand that these figures as they stand now would hardly increase any existing BCR for any given project just now. But if this trend were to continue for many years.....

Anyway, there must be other parts of the UK having a similar spurt or even faster growth than in my patch. The question is what priority do the likes of the DfT, NR, TOCs etc place on these projections when it comes to the likes of station and line reopenings? Or do they even bother looking at them at all?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Great question. Bookmarked for me to read the replies.

 

[Northern_Light]

Great question. Bookmarked for me to read the replies.

Had no idea that such a simple question would have such a great effect! Thanks!

 

[Gareth Marston]

Was having a browse through the latest Scottish population stats and noticed that all the council areas in the North of the country (Dundee City, Angus, Aberdeenshire, Aberdeen City, Moray and Highland) had all exceeded their growth projections over the last 2 years. Highland has met its target for 2015, Moray for 2020 and Angus has more people now than has been predicted for 2035!

Now I know that for the most part that Northern Scotland is for the most part rural in nature. I also understand that these figures as they stand now would hardly increase any existing BCR for any given project just now. But if this trend were to continue for many years.....

Anyway, there must be other parts of the UK having a similar spurt or even faster growth than in my patch. The question is what priority do the likes of the DfT, NR, TOCs etc place on these projections when it comes to the likes of station and line reopenings? Or do they even bother looking at them at all?

ATOC are in total denial with their claim that the growth on the railways is all down to the franchise system, population growth is undoubtedly a large factor. The population of England and Wales grew by 2.5 percent between 1971 &1991 and 12.5 percent between 1991 and 2011. Put simply the TOC s have millions more potential customers than BR did.
Here in Wales Cardiff UA grew by 13 percent between 2001 and 2011 with predictions for more in the future and calls for investment to be concentrated their. Ceredigion UA 1.3 percent looks sickly but drill down to what's known as medium super output levels and the Aberystwyth area grew by 12 percent. The upper Severn valley grew by 19 percent but Powys by 5 percent. No doubt these trends pop up all over the UK.

 

[Northern_Light]

ATOC are in total denial with their claim that the growth on the railways is all down to the franchise system, population growth is undoubtedly a large factor. The population of England and Wales grew by 2.5 percent between 1971 &1991 and 12.5 percent between 1991 and 2011. Put simply the TOC s have millions more potential customers than BR did.
Here in Wales Cardiff UA grew by 13 percent between 2001 and 2011 with predictions for more in the future and calls for investment to be concentrated their. Ceredigion UA 1.3 percent looks sickly but drill down to what's known as medium super output levels and the Aberystwyth area grew by 12 percent. The upper Severn valley grew by 19 percent but Powys by 5 percent. No doubt these trends pop up all over the UK.

So ATOC are saying that if BR were still running the show the very welcome wiring of the main line through the Valleys (among other things in Wales) wouldn't have happened?

 

[Gareth Marston]

So ATOC are saying that if BR were still running the show the very welcome wiring of the main line through the Valleys (among other things in Wales) wouldn't have happened?

Atoc have been loudly spinning the line that all the phenomenal growth and investment in the railway since privitisation at year zero of course is entirely down to the franchise system therefore justifying the current system and their members continued existence. Let me stress I'm not starting another private v nationalised debate but pointing out that there's a large external factor - population growth that the TOC,s have benefitted from. The Tocs came along at the time of a number of factors that BR never benefitted from emerged which have underpinned growth including population growth. The relevance to this thread is that whilst atoc proclaim how good they are there seems to be a basic absence of acknowledging that a growing population may need more rail services and the need to plan for it. It's a ver hot topic for the NHS, local authorities etc but the railway is blinded to it because of the private v state sterial argument.

Other factors that are clear in rails growth are

A larger more mobile and more affluent retired population.
The different employment characteristics of the current recession, BR had mass unemployment and a decrease in numbers of employed tho contend with. The highest ever number of people in employment was achieved last year with the unemployed a lower percentage than in other recessions.
The rise of the city region outside London with employment, retail and leisure opportunities developing around where rail goes.
15 years of uniterupted economic growth from 1993 to 2008 always closely linked to passenger growth.BR at best got 5 years before another slump.
Govt subsidy greater than ever got by BR underpinning investment in the network and of course NR £30 billion of debt which BR would never been allowed to run up!

If atoc and the unions were honest maybe we could have a sensible debate about population growth/change as a factor in the rail industry.

 

[Bevan Price]

Other factors that are clear in rails growth are

A larger more mobile and more affluent retired population.
The different employment characteristics of the current recession, BR had mass unemployment and a decrease in numbers of employed tho contend with. The highest ever number of people in employment was achieved last year with the unemployed a lower percentage than in other recessions.
The rise of the city region outside London with employment, retail and leisure opportunities developing around where rail goes.
15 years of uniterupted economic growth from 1993 to 2008 always closely linked to passenger growth.BR at best got 5 years before another slump.
Govt subsidy greater than ever got by BR underpinning investment in the network and of course NR £30 billion of debt which BR would never been allowed to run up!

To which one might add:
Increased road congestion in cities, coupled with ever increasing parking charges and insufficient car parking spaces. This makes driving to cities less attractive, leading to people using rail as the alternative, despite increased rail fares.

Exhorbitant house prices in many city centres, forcing many people to live further away from their workplaces in those cities, and having to commute to/from work.

 

[WatcherZero]

Though not a modern phenomena, same thing happened in the Metroland and Manchester suburbia eras. One thing privatisation has done is massivley increase the efficency, less carriages working harder, also rail fares have risen slower than bus fares.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa.../file/73093/rail-trends-factsheet-2010-11.pdf

 

[Gareth Marston]

Though not a modern phenomena, same thing happened in the Metroland and Manchester suburbia eras. One thing privatisation has done is massivley increase the efficency, less carriages working harder, also rail fares have risen slower than bus fares.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa.../file/73093/rail-trends-factsheet-2010-11.pdf

Like the statement "After remaining at around the same level
for several decades", - undermines the ATOC claim of the railway being in decline when they "rescued it".

Cant see anything on passenger carrying vehicles on the link my understanding is they've gone up by about 4% not down. As to efficiency yes they sweat assets more but look at Abergavenney - 19 trains a day to Cardiff in 1991/1992, 29 now. However the morning peaks and evening peak numbers are the same now as then so all the extras are off peak trains - is that really more efficient as there spending money running trains when loads are lighter?

Look at the rates of growth on Chart 1 looks like BR got similar to the TOCS when it grew it just had a lot more economic downturns to contend with.