XC HSts Wasted in the sidings

[Zoe]

Whilst I am usually arguing in favour of direct trains as they are much more appealing to passengers, at least Bournemouth has a very frequent service from Southampton anyway which XC barely scratches.

It's not like say Bristol to Exeter where XC pretty much is the majority of the service.

That is the case between Exeter and Bristol but between Exeter and Penzance there are regular FGW services. I doubt you would support ending the XC network at Exeter though even if it could potentially allow more double Voyager workings.

 

[TheWalrus]

I wouldn't to be honest 'd leave the majority of how the routes operate as is and trim back quieter parts.

 

[RobShipway]

Can you expand on those services a bit please? I'm confused as to why you state that there's very little custom from, say, Manchester-Reading or Birmingham-Devon and Cornwall, yet then propose services direct between the Lincolnshire Coast and Dorset! I would also hope the above was in addition to the existing Bristol-Newcastle etc services? Also, wouldn't Blackpool-Edinburgh (which I presume you mean via the WCML and not the ECML!) be better in the hands of the ICWC franchise?

Yes, the above is in addition to what is currently being operated on the XC routes.

The ICWC franchise is hopefully going to be running Euston - Blackpool services anyway and I don't believe that they have much in the way of spare Voyagers to do Blackpool - Edingburgh. Admittedly, my suggestions would mean that extra rolling stock if you where to do all the routes I have suggested would be required. However, I think a couple of those routes could be done in the next Timetable with the spare HST's during they are spare and not in for maintenance.

Also, I am not saying that the total route between Reading to Manchester is quiet, just the route area between Birmingham New Street - Manchester Piccadilly as people have gone on the ICWC pendo's to Manchester from Birmingham. The only time the route is busy, is when the trains are travelling from Manchester to Birmingham where a lot of people seem to get off from what I have noticed. However, a lot of people depending on the time of day also get on to go South from Birmingham to Reading, Bournemouth etc....

 

[The Planner]

Also, I am not saying that the total route between Reading to Manchester is quiet, just the route area between Birmingham New Street - Manchester Piccadilly as people have gone on the ICWC pendo's to Manchester from Birmingham. The only time the route is busy, is when the trains are travelling from Manchester to Birmingham where a lot of people seem to get off from what I have noticed. However, a lot of people depending on the time of day also get on to go South from Birmingham to Reading, Bournemouth etc....

Goes completely against what XC are trying to do, they see Brum - Manchester as a massive earner, more than it currently is for them, and are trying to get faster paths. If they could get infront of the Virgin at Stone they would be laughing.

I presume you mean Pendo's Brum to Manchester under your plans? as they don't run any.

 

[corfield]

Goatboy. I'm not doubting that, but does that need to be provided by XC ?, or could FGW run a more regular Exeter(and beyond) to Bristol service with XC from there onwards (admittedly a change). It would be entirely "in their area" ?

With IEP and proposed improvements between the two, it is conceivable that FGW will be running more services over this route anyway...


Wrt Birm-Manchester, whilst it is undoubtedly busy and XC would love to get a (bigger) share of the market - is it necessary for the train to have come all the way from the South Coast, and are 4 coach 220s the best use of WCML paths ?


Could we replace the XC network with shorter interlinks between TOCs using the various TOCs we already have ? Although accepting this would end the long distance options...

 

[TheWalrus]

Also, I am not saying that the total route between Reading to Manchester is quiet, just the route area between Birmingham New Street - Manchester Piccadilly as people have gone on the ICWC pendo's to Manchester from Birmingham. The only time the route is busy, is when the trains are travelling from Manchester to Birmingham where a lot of people seem to get off from what I have noticed. However, a lot of people depending on the time of day also get on to go South from Birmingham to Reading, Bournemouth etc....

Goes completely against what XC are trying to do, they see Brum - Manchester as a massive earner, more than it currently is for them, and are trying to get faster paths. If they could get infront of the Virgin at Stone they would be laughing.

I presume you mean Pendo's Brum to Manchester under your plans? as they don't run any.

This may sound like a stupid question but would they be any better off going via Crewe?

I'm also confused about pendos on Brum-Man?

 

[Goatboy]

Goatboy. I'm not doubting that, but does that need to be provided by XC ?, or could FGW run a more regular Exeter(and beyond) to Bristol service with XC from there onwards (admittedly a change). It would be entirely "in their area" ?

Using what stock and for what purpose?

FGW already have such chronic stock issues that they are forced to use 150 DMU's on the few Penzance to Bristol services they currently operate anyway!

 

[tbtc]

Using what stock and for what purpose?

FGW already have such chronic stock issues that they are forced to use 150 DMU's on the few Penzance to Bristol services they currently operate anyway!

If we are talking about changes in (say) five years then FGW ought to have 166s freed up by electrification/ IEP.

And, lets face it, nothing is going to change on XC in the next five years (due to the long lead times).

 

[The Planner]

This may sound like a stupid question but would they be any better off going via Crewe?

Lose out on the Stoke market then.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Wrt Birm-Manchester, whilst it is undoubtedly busy and XC would love to get a (bigger) share of the market - is it necessary for the train to have come all the way from the South Coast, and are 4 coach 220s the best use of WCML paths ?

Would hardly call Stafford to Norton Bridge the straw breaking the camels back, they are on the slows in the down direction mostly anyway.

 

[corfield]

Goatboy.

Using what stock and for what purpose?

Isnt the purpose self evident ? Indeed hasnt the entire ourpose of the discussion and ideas being about allowing XC to potentially concentrate on busier parts of its network and reducing its costs.

As above, this isnt something likely to happen tomorrow so why the hissy fit over wanting to know which stock today could be redeployed ? This is looking to the future, by then as mentioned the 165/166 fleet will have cascaded, EMUs may have replaced more DMUs in XC and other TOCs (including Scotrail) so there is clearly scope to acheive that. Assuming of course the loss of through "far SW@ to Birm and beyond doesnt exacerbate XCs position.

I just remember from 2 trips to Penzance how West of Exeter I could have run up and down the carriage of the HSTs I was in naked because there was no other bugger to see me ! Carting fresh air around (as possibly is the case in parts of the network) must be expensive in fuel and track charges if using Voyagers and HSTs vs. something much smaller.

So far only the far SW has been suggested as a "quiet area" on XC.

Thinking further afield, XC is going to struggle to survive post HS2 as it will become far quicker (and cheaper if the HS model is true..) for people to change at Birmingham and use the Captives/Classic Compatibles north of there. Would you really run an expensive 200moh capable classic compatible at sub 125mph all the way from Penzance to Birm ? Or even from Plymouth and Exeter ?

If XC is loss making, implying weak pax:cost capacity, its hard to imagine a justification for a HS link in the SW ir to join the proposed HS2 network.

 

[Goatboy]

I just remember from 2 trips to Penzance how West of Exeter I could have run up and down the carriage of the HSTs I was in naked because there was no other bugger to see me ! Carting fresh air around (as possibly is the case in parts of the network) must be expensive in fuel and track charges if using Voyagers and HSTs vs. something much smaller.

XC do not run HST's to Penzance so I'm not sure exactly when you experienced this. They go no further than Plymouth - and they are diagrammed to arrive in Plymouth from lunchtime onwards so the inbound workings are obviously going to be less quiet in the same way that an inbound Pendolino from Birmingham to Euston arriving mid afternon midweek isn't wedged either, shall we cut them too? The outbound workings, which leave at more popular times, are more busy. The HST's are still not fully loaded - but they are comfortably loaded. Thats what nice about them. They are not empty but you can always find a seat which is arguably how long distance travel *should* be.

I frequently use XC to and from Plymouth and only wish the stories about how empty some of you think the Voyagers are on this end of the network were true! For my regular train I can't even get a seat reservation if I leave it less than about 7-10 days before departure.

Also, what do you suggest thats 'smaller' than a Voyager, don't forget your average Voyager has less seating capacity than a 3 car 158!

 

[Xavi]

Standing from Bristol to Tiverton Pkway / Exeter is an all too common experience. There is also considerable demand from Devon to Birmingham currently choked off by some of the highest fares on the network because of lack of capacity on Voyagers - they wouldn't cope at all north of Bristol TM if fares were more realistic. Advances are barely available at popular times. There is one way around - splitting which more than halves the cost of my trips from Devon to Brum. Which then looks as though I'm making short trips.

 

[corfield]

Ahh yes. Good point. I was actually using FGW trains presumably originating fm Padd actually ! Sorry, got rather confused.

Devon to Brum Uni is a market ? Really ? You and some freinds might be doing it but hardly worth 1000s and 1000s of tickets a year, and even then will be quite seasonal demand.

I dont think east/north of Exeter and certainly Bristol is a market anyone is suggesting pruning ?

One alternative for additional west of Exeter services if XC was cut back would be to extend the SWT service...

If XC is losing money and lacks capacity to carry more in these congested sections then there seems little scope or sense to reduce fares to what you define as "reasonable".

Longer trains might permit discounted fares which might fill them at otherwise quiet times. That might not however work and unless the discounted fares are high enough to cover the extra costs then the situation worsens.

It seems a bit Catch 22.

 

[Zoe]

I'm not sure where SWT would get stock from if they were to take over Exeter to Penzance. They stopped running west of Exeter in 2009 so that an hourly service could run from Waterloo to Exeter. If it was indeed decided to end the XC network at Exeter though, couldn't people traveling from Birmingham to Plymouth just change at Exeter onto one of the hourly HSTs from London? That said 159s wouldn't be too bad on that route and if in the future Exeter also becomes the end of the intercity network from Paddington and Basingstoke to Exeter were to be electrified then maybe 159s could then be cascaded to run an hourly Exeter to Penzance shuttle.

 

[tbtc]

XC do not run HST's to Penzance so I'm not sure exactly when you experienced this. They go no further than Plymouth - and they are diagrammed to arrive in Plymouth from lunchtime onwards so the inbound workings are obviously going to be less quiet in the same way that an inbound Pendolino from Birmingham to Euston arriving mid afternon midweek isn't wedged either, shall we cut them too?

If the argument is that you can't expect midweek services to be "wedged" then that weakens the argument that "XC ought to be using their HSTs more intensively midweek" (since they do use the HSTs properly Friday to Monday, just not on Tues/Wed/Thurs)

 

[Goatboy]

If the argument is that you can't expect midweek services to be "wedged" then that weakens the argument that "XC ought to be using their HSTs more intensively midweek" (since they do use the HSTs properly Friday to Monday, just not on Tues/Wed/Thurs)

No thats not what I was saying (And I noticed a typo in my post too).

The inbound working is quite quiet during the week but the outbound working is far more busy as it leaves at a more popular traveling time, thats all.

Presumably in much the same way that those rammed 12 coach EMU's out of London in the peak are very quiet on the way back to London, but you wouldn't use a journey to Waterloo at 6pm as reason to claim SWT have too much capacity
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Devon to Brum Uni is a market ? Really ?

He said Birmingham not Birmingham Uni? Where did you get Uni from?

One alternative for additional west of Exeter services if XC was cut back would be to extend the SWT service...

The same SWT service that was itself cut back in 2009 because they didn't have the stock to run it?

 

[Kettledrum]

It seems one main argument is to use the HSTs more (and by extension, acquire additional HSTs and/or double up Voyagers).

However, unless there is suppressed demand, this will simply increase costs for no tangible extra revenue. Granted comfort will improve but losses and government subsidy will increase.

My theory is there is suppressed demand for 2 reasons:

- XC ticket prices are notoriously high
- XC trains in the peak times and in the core of the route are often so crowded, that they put passengers off

Once more HSTs become available, with the electrification of the Great Western Main Line, it would be a great opportunity to provide the XC routes with a great Inter City Service, but there needs to be a contractual requirement and a financial incentive for using all the stock and growing the business. Sadly neither of these appear to be in place with Arriva's present franchise contract.

 

[TheWalrus]

Agree with the last post. There does need to be incentives to increase use of stock rather than the current system which acts as a disincentive.

At the end of the day, anyone can make suggestions based on what they think goes on. However without the actual data of costs and sales revenue, and passenger journeys none of us can make any accurate plans.

 

[Starmill]

I don't pretend to understand the vast complexity of their fare structure, but XC aren't green when it comes to pricing advances. Perhaps it all comes of much better usage data and their whole 'realtime reservations' thing? I dunno. In theory, 'price discrimination' - which is what selling Advance Tickets is (selling the same travel but discriminating by the time you buy the ticket), does two things. The first is obvious; it ensures that those willing to pay the most do so i.e. they buy late and they pay more. This is sometimes called 'appropriation of consumer surplus'. The second thing it does is sell some tickets cheaper than they would be sold if every ticket were sold at the same 'equilibrium' price i.e. you buy 3 months in advance and get a really cheap ticket. Many of the people who buy those would not have chosen to travel at all if they had had to pay the equilibrium price, so the market has been widened. Both of these effects work together to increase revenue, and the idea is that you try to charge each person as much as they are willing to pay, but still keep their custom. Therefore the more accurate data you have about who your passengers are, when they want to travel and where, the better the APs you can make to cater for this. Add in the uniquely odd factor the rail industry has in that revenue from walk-ups (assuming these are the most expensive tickets) is shared and the fact that if you can get people using the XC website you don't even have to pay commission and it could be a real recipe for the highest revenue per seat going.


By these tokens, I would expect XC to be making more profit per seat than some of the other TOCs out there with overly/unimaginatively/inflexibly priced advances. Shame the rolling stock isn't up to the job!

 

[455driver]

XC offer pretty much the only service from Cornwall and Devon to Bristol and beyond.
XCs 3 services a day are "pretty much the only service from Cornwall" are they?

You are being very selective
in your facts to suit your argument!
FGW have merely a token service between Bristol and Exeter made up of mostly local all-shacks stoppers via Weston Super Mare most of which only go as far as Taunton anyway and the very occasional Paddington HST service.

The service XC provides is absolutely vital for this corridor.

Well as XC are the main operator between Taunton and Bristol they are goung to be arent they! :roll:
Between Penzance, Plymouth, Exeter to Taunton your argument falls flat on its face as FGW are the main operator!

 

[JamesRowden]

If the DfT and Arriva were both highly bothered by the lack of stock available for the XC services they could have come to an agreement to run EMUs between Birmingham and Manchester and between York and Edinburgh. XC could create perfect connections between their services. The EMUs would be cheaper to run and I expect that 100/110 mph EMUs would be suitable. Alternatively they could be 125/140 mph EMUs that could eventually be used on longer routes once further XC electrification is completed.

 

[tbtc]

I don't pretend to understand the vast complexity of their fare structure, but XC aren't green when it comes to pricing advances. Perhaps it all comes of much better usage data and their whole 'realtime reservations' thing? I dunno. In theory, 'price discrimination' - which is what selling Advance Tickets is (selling the same travel but discriminating by the time you buy the ticket), does two things. The first is obvious; it ensures that those willing to pay the most do so i.e. they buy late and they pay more. This is sometimes called 'appropriation of consumer surplus'. The second thing it does is sell some tickets cheaper than they would be sold if every ticket were sold at the same 'equilibrium' price i.e. you buy 3 months in advance and get a really cheap ticket. Many of the people who buy those would not have chosen to travel at all if they had had to pay the equilibrium price, so the market has been widened. Both of these effects work together to increase revenue, and the idea is that you try to charge each person as much as they are willing to pay, but still keep their custom. Therefore the more accurate data you have about who your passengers are, when they want to travel and where, the better the APs you can make to cater for this. Add in the uniquely odd factor the rail industry has in that revenue from walk-ups (assuming these are the most expensive tickets) is shared and the fact that if you can get people using the XC website you don't even have to pay commission and it could be a real recipe for the highest revenue per seat going.


By these tokens, I would expect XC to be making more profit per seat than some of the other TOCs out there with overly/unimaginatively/inflexibly priced advances. Shame the rolling stock isn't up to the job!

XC don't have the London trade (of people travelling on First Class tickets/ expenses - which makes a big difference

XC do not run HST's to Penzance so I'm not sure exactly when you experienced this. They go no further than Plymouth - and they are diagrammed to arrive in Plymouth from lunchtime onwards so the inbound workings are obviously going to be less quiet in the same way that an inbound Pendolino from Birmingham to Euston arriving mid afternon midweek isn't wedged either, shall we cut them too? The outbound workings, which leave at more popular times, are more busy. The HST's are still not fully loaded - but they are comfortably loaded. Thats what nice about them. They are not empty but you can always find a seat which is arguably how long distance travel *should* be.

I frequently use XC to and from Plymouth and only wish the stories about how empty some of you think the Voyagers are on this end of the network were true! For my regular train I can't even get a seat reservation if I leave it less than about 7-10 days before departure.

Also, what do you suggest thats 'smaller' than a Voyager, don't forget your average Voyager has less seating capacity than a 3 car 158!

If the argument is that you can't expect midweek services to be "wedged" then that weakens the argument that "XC ought to be using their HSTs more intensively midweek" (since they do use the HSTs properly Friday to Monday, just not on Tues/Wed/Thurs)

No thats not what I was saying (And I noticed a typo in my post too).

The inbound working is quite quiet during the week but the outbound working is far more busy as it leaves at a more popular traveling time, thats all.

Presumably in much the same way that those rammed 12 coach EMU's out of London in the peak are very quiet on the way back to London, but you wouldn't use a journey to Waterloo at 6pm as reason to claim SWT have too much capacity

You brought up the fact that trains are generally quieter midweek.

Since XC already use their HSTs fully at the weekend then the only "wasted in sidings" element (which is what this thread is about" are the three midweek days when XC only use a couple of their HST allocation.

So why bring midweek up?

 

[Manchester77]

Would running XC HSTs in 2+6 reduce losses by reducing all the sparsely filled coaches in the current HST sets? I've not actually seen a XC operated HST with all 8 coaches full. I've only ever seen about half the seats occupied in each coach.

 

[455driver]

XC do not run HST's to Penzance so I'm not sure exactly when you experienced this.

They did a couple of years ago!

They go no further than Plymouth -

Yes they do every summer!

and they are diagrammed to arrive in Plymouth from lunchtime onwards so the inbound workings are obviously going to be less quiet in the same way that an inbound Pendolino from Birmingham to Euston arriving mid afternon midweek isn't wedged either, shall we cut them too? The outbound workings, which leave at more popular times, are more busy. The HST's are still not fully loaded - but they are comfortably loaded. Thats what nice about them. They are not empty but you can always find a seat which is arguably how long distance travel *should* be.

Thet are diagrammed to travel through Birmingham during the peak periods (where the capacity is most needed), where they go inbetween XC couldnt really care less about!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Would running XC HSTs in 2+6 reduce losses by reducing all the sparsely filled coaches in the current HST sets? I've not actually seen a XC operated HST with all 8 coaches full. I've only ever seen about half the seats occupied in each coach.

Have a look at ones arriving into Birmingham during the morning peak (or leaving in the evening peak) they are hardly "sparsely filled", oh they only run as 2+7 not 2+8 as it is.

People need to look at the overall picture not just the little bit you are interested in!

 

[Zoe]

They did a couple of years ago!

I'm not sure they have ever done so on a regular basis since 2003 though except possibly some seasonal workings (I'm not sure if these went to Newquay or Penzance).

 

[455driver]

Mainly Newquay on a Saturday with the odd one to Penzance on Sunday morning I think it was.

 

[CC 72100]

Mainly Newquay on a Saturday with the odd one to Penzance on Sunday morning I think it was.

Last summer (2012) it was two diagrams to Paignton, one to Penzance, and one to Newquay which came back as 2xxx and overnighted in Laira if I remember correctly.

The ~ 06:00 off Leeds went to Paignton, ~ 06:32 off York (an hour behind it) to Penzance, ~ 06:00 off Edinburgh to Paignton, and the ~ 06:32 off Dundee to Newquay.

 

[bnm]

Well as XC are the main operator between Taunton and Bristol they are goung to be arent they! :roll:

Main operator? I think not. Taunton<->Bristol weekdays, 48 FGW services, 40 XC services.

And FGW set the fares as lead operator on the flow.

 

[CC 72100]

Main operator? I think not. Taunton<->Bristol weekdays, 48 FGW services, 40 XC services.

And FGW set the fares as lead operator on the flow.

Whilst the stats show this story, I would bet, given the nature of the Taunton - Bristol FGW services being for the most part Taunton - Cardiff/Bristol Pwy via Weston units, that passenger numbers are considerably higher on XC, which are express services, so I would consider XC the main Intercity/ Long-distance operator on this stretch, regardless of Train per day figures.

 

[Zoe]

Main operator? I think not. Taunton<->Bristol weekdays, 48 FGW services, 40 XC services.

And FGW set the fares as lead operator on the flow.

FGW do run more trains but only a few of these are High Speed Services and the Cardiff services take twice as long as XC and some are even overtaken en route. I'm not exactly sure how lead operator status is decided but I'd almost always use XC for reasons I just stated and I expect most people travelling from Taunton to Bristol would use XC.